Why are my NBME practice scores dropping?

[Lannister]

Right now, step is scheduled for June 7th.

NBME 13 (2 months ago): 234
CBSE (2 months ago): 248
UWSA1 (3 weeks ago): 258
UWSA2 (2 weeks ago): 256
NBME 15 (1 week ago): 261
NBME 16 (Wednesday): 263
NBME 17 (yesterday): 257
NBME 18 (today): 255

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy with all of these scores individually. My original goal was like a 240+. But the pattern is really worrying me. I was leaning towards re-scheduling my exam for this coming Saturday, June 2nd, because I've pretty much worked my way through all of the study resources I planned to use. I told myself if I scored above a 250 on NBME 18 I would re-schedule, but now I'm feeling doubtful again.

Are my declining scores a sign that I've plateaued and should move my exam up before I drop even further? Or is it a sign that I have a knowledge gap that could be remedied in the next two weeks, and I shouldn't re-schedule?

Score reports aren't particularly helpful, there's no consistent topic that I do poorly in every time, so it's hard to target my studying to my weaknesses.

I'll be taking 19 later this week, but I want to make a decision about re-scheduling before I take 19.

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[Integral]

You’re definitely spending a lot more time on here deciding rather than studying. So, I say take it on June 2.

 

[Lannister]

You’re definitely spending a lot more time on here deciding rather than studying. So, I say take it on June 2.

LOL I know. Ironically I was doing really great at being productive until the thought of taking it early crossed my mind. I think once I make a decision I'll go back to being productive. 99% sure I'm gonna move it, just wanna eat lunch first so I can make the decision on a full stomach haha.

 

[The Knife & Gun Club]

I would see it more as you're just not moving either way tbh. They get progressively harder and above 250 the wobble in scores increases exponentially.

Also it may help to look at the percentage correct and see how much that fluctuation is. My gut feeling is that the difference between a 261 and a 255 is probably no more than 5 questions or a couple percentage points.

At that point things like a dog barking, needing to pee at the end of a block, or having a song stuck in your head could start to have a meaningful impact on score.

 

[Lannister]

@The Knife & Gun Club The difference between the 261 on NBME 15 and the 255 on NBME 18 was 7 questions (95% correct vs 91.5% correct). But interestingly the difference between the 263 and the 257 was only one question haha.

I'm going through 18 now and there are a handful of questions where I made really dumb mistakes, like getting direct vs indirect bilirubin confused, and mixing up the superior and inferior mesenteric arteries. That's pretty unusual for me, I'm not one to make a ton of dumb mistakes. So maybe I'm just a little burnt out or tired today or something.

Anyways, I did decide to move my exam up!

 

[mikil100]

Right now, step is scheduled for June 7th.

NBME 13 (2 months ago): 234
CBSE (2 months ago): 248
UWSA1 (3 weeks ago): 258
UWSA2 (2 weeks ago): 256
NBME 15 (1 week ago): 261
NBME 16 (Wednesday): 263
NBME 17 (yesterday): 257
NBME 18 (today): 255

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy with all of these scores individually. My original goal was like a 240+. But the pattern is really worrying me. I was leaning towards re-scheduling my exam for this coming Saturday, June 2nd, because I've pretty much worked my way through all of the study resources I planned to use. I told myself if I scored above a 250 on NBME 18 I would re-schedule, but now I'm feeling doubtful again.

Are my declining scores a sign that I've plateaued and should move my exam up before I drop even further? Or is it a sign that I have a knowledge gap that could be remedied in the next two weeks, and I shouldn't re-schedule?

Score reports aren't particularly helpful, there's no consistent topic that I do poorly in every time, so it's hard to target my studying to my weaknesses.

I'll be taking 19 later this week, but I want to make a decision about re-scheduling before I take 19.

I've been following your posts because our NBME scores have been neck and neck. You won't regret moving your score up. >255 scores are great. You'll kill it.

 

[Rahas]

Well, I think the error margin for the USMLE is 6 points, isnt it? Since NBMEs have fewer questions, I'm guessing the error margin should be higher... maybe 8 points? That means your scores are within the margin of error, so I'd say you're not improving, rather than regressing.

 

[073116]

Right now, step is scheduled for June 7th.

NBME 13 (2 months ago): 234
CBSE (2 months ago): 248
UWSA1 (3 weeks ago): 258
UWSA2 (2 weeks ago): 256
NBME 15 (1 week ago): 261
NBME 16 (Wednesday): 263
NBME 17 (yesterday): 257
NBME 18 (today): 255

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy with all of these scores individually. My original goal was like a 240+. But the pattern is really worrying me. I was leaning towards re-scheduling my exam for this coming Saturday, June 2nd, because I've pretty much worked my way through all of the study resources I planned to use. I told myself if I scored above a 250 on NBME 18 I would re-schedule, but now I'm feeling doubtful again.

Are my declining scores a sign that I've plateaued and should move my exam up before I drop even further? Or is it a sign that I have a knowledge gap that could be remedied in the next two weeks, and I shouldn't re-schedule?

Score reports aren't particularly helpful, there's no consistent topic that I do poorly in every time, so it's hard to target my studying to my weaknesses.

I'll be taking 19 later this week, but I want to make a decision about re-scheduling before I take 19.

I wanted to suggest you might need a good descent leather belt arse whipping to kick the doubts and other **** out of you, but I already see you made a good decision. Good for you.