Take an economics course. The salaries of physicians are not at all rational because they aren't set in a rational market. Access to medical training in this country, or any other country for that matter, should be open to anyone who is willing to pay the price for an efficiently delivered medical education. Residency slots should be plentiful because in most cases residents are a more efficient alternative to NPs or PAs.
I believe we've had this same discussion before. I'm writing because I respect your position.
I agree with you that keeping the number of physicians limited simply to prop up salaries is abhorrent. I get why those in the profession would desire it. I don't want to make less in salary than I do today.
And I think you've already mentioned this, but this is not a medical school problem. We already have more residency spots than med school graduates. If we increased the number of medical school spots all alone all that would happen is IMG physicians would be displaced. Whether that's a good or bad idea is debatable, but it won't increase the supply of physicians and hence won't address your primary issue.
So the "solution" is increasing the number of residency spots. But that isn't so easy, and won't necessarily fix the cost problem.
It's often said that residents are cheaper than NP/PA's. The latest example is some NS program closing and replacing all of their residents with midlevels. A more accurate statement would be that midlevels are cheaper in programs that overwork their residents. So, no surprise, true in almost any NS program. But in many IM programs, residents get lots of electives and outpatient blocks. One NP/PA could cover the work of several residents -- less financially efficient. This will be very dependent on local work patterns, and how much "grunt" work vs "elective" work is in the resident schedule.
Adding a new resident to our program isn't easy. Sure, I have plenty of general IM teams that my Hosp Med program would love to have residents on -- some teams have residents, and at least half do not. But an IM resident doesn't do all Gen Med rotations. They need ICU, and Neurology, and Geriatrics. And a continuity clinic. And research mentors. And specialty experiences. And if I add more day teams, then I might need more night residents (so more night rotations). And bigger conference rooms / work space. That's the magic of hiring an NP/PA - they do inpatient Hospital Medicine with every shift, all the time. It's much more efficient and simple (and much less turnover).
And then there's the issue of Medicare funding for GME. You and I agree (from other threads) that this is a boondoggle. It's the grift that pays my salary, and I know that. I'm still against it. If we're increasing resident slots, then there's more GME funding to flow. Unless we're fixing that too.
Ignoring all that, then the question is: would more physicians lower health care costs? Sadly, I think the answer is no. Healthcare doesn't seem to follow standard economic principles, because lots of things distort the marketplace. Including:
- Patients don't pay for healthcare directly. Many have insurance which just pays the bill. Some have no insurance and end up never paying the bill. Some people get squeezed in the middle. But market forces don't tend to work well when consumers don't pay the bill
- Fixed payments for services. Most insurances have a fixed payment for a service. It doesn't matter how much experience I have, or (somewhat) what part of the country I'm in. I get whatever the insurer has decided is the "maximum allowable amount". And since insurers publish that, it's unlikely anyone would charge less (and, even if I did, it wouldn't save the patient anything)
- Many studies / analyses have determined that healthcare tends to be "supply sensitive". If I'm a new Cardiologist in town and I just paid for a new shiny Cath Lab and the schedule is empty, I'm much more likely to recommend a Cath than medical management. If I'm a new PCP in town and my schedule is wide open, I'm much more likely to see you back for a blood pressure check in 1 month rather than 3-6. Both physician want their schedule to be full (as would someone who owns a restaurant). Patients tend to be very happy -- they get their test, or visit, or attention from their physician. But this just drives up costs.
- There is information asymmetry between buyers and sellers. When buying a new washing machine, I can do all sorts of research on what type of machine I want, price comparison, shop various stores, and pick what I want (although, in my house, after all of that if we go to the store my wife looks down the line, points to one and says "I like that one, it's what we're going to get", and all of my research is wasted). In healthcare, it doesn't work this way. You come and see me for abdominal pain and I tell you that you need a CT scan. Costs $2000. What are you going to do -- go ask someone else for another opinion? And what happens when they tell you that you don't need a CT scan, whom are you going to believe? Even for elective procedures, shopping around is very difficult. Most patients won't be able to manage this. I'm sure you can -- you're here talking about it. But most cannot.
Healthcare costs are out of control. Something needs to be done or ultimately the system will reach a breaking point. More physicians might be part of the solution, but multiple other changes need to be made also -- payment reform, malpractice reform, drug middlemen, pharma companies, high paid executives, unnecessary testing, facility fees, salaries (physician and others) -- the list goes on. Anytime anyone focuses on one of these issues, it quickly is raised that "XXX is only 8% of the whole HC budget, so reducing it to nothing would hardly save enough". The problem is that all of these things are 8% of the budget each, so if we really want to get healthcare spending under control we need to attack it all. But that's really complicated, and fraught with difficulty and politics.
And in the end, every healthcare dollar wasted is someone's income, somewhere. So cutting healthcare costs = cutting people's salaries (or having less people do the same amount of work). This is no different than any other commodity -- offshoring production to cut costs, technology replacing workers in factories, tracking workers to maximize productivity, etc -- all done to drive down prices. Which is great if you're the consumer, and less good if you're the person whose job is being replaced.
Bottom line is that there's no easy answer. And anyone trying to sell an easy answer, whether it's NP/PA's, Universal Healthcare, Malpractice reform, or whatever is a pipe dream. Sadly, I expect we'll need to wait until the system truly fails to change anything, and it will be incremental tweaks that put off the problem a few years at a time.