So many physicians I speak with all say CT Surgery is a dying field and that Interventional Cardiology is taking a huge and growing portion of the heart domain. Obviously, there's a lot of truth to this, but there will always be some heart things only a surgeon can fix. It's worrisome though that this eventually becomes so small that the demand for CT Surgeons will become shockingly low.
My question is why is CT dying when they can theoretically always fall back upon lung surgery? I'd assume most of these are cancer related surgeries so are they usually in the domain of CT Surgeons or does one also need a surgical oncology fellowship for this at most institutions? Or do these surgeries belong to the Thoracic only surgeons?
Thoracics is not dying, Cardiac isn't either. The field may shrink in the coming years. The primary issue for CT surgeons is that technology is on cardiology's side. As long as any new technology is as good as open surgery and it is doable percutaneously, surgery is out, especially because cardiology controls the patient. The biggest mistake that cardiac specifically made was they let interventional go to cardiology and they let cardiology take over the clinic. Other surgical specialties have all learned from the mistakes cardiac has made. Thoracics works up primary lung tumours, general surgeons often work up and follow their own cancer patients. The only thing cardiac follows is aortic aneurysms.
In the CABG domain, surgeons have won a reprieve with a few of the latest studies showing CABG is still superior in several areas. CV is investigating specifically total arterial revascularization in more earnest as well. There will always be CABGs for patients who have unfavourable coronary anatomy. Hybrid-CABG aka bypassing the LIMA-LAD in a minimally invasive manner and then stenting the other vessels is experimental.
The valve domain is the one in the largest flux. Aortic valves have traditionally been around 25% of the caseload and most predict that between 50-90% of aortic valves will go to TAVR in the future. Surgeons are fighting to do these procedures but cardiologists invented TAVR and likely have the upper hand in this area. Currently the heart team approach is in place due to funding structures, but as the procedure becomes less invasive and safer, it could settle in the hands of cardiology, although many CT surgeons are interested and many perform them as well. I can see it ending up similar to endoscopy where surgeons and GI do them varying by center and individual expertise. No question though that a certain percentage of valves will be lost to cardiology.
The next big domain is mitral valves. These comprise maybe 10-15% of the caseload and currently there is Mitraclip, but it isn't as good as a surgical mitral valve repair and mainly used in inoperable patients. However, total mitral valve replacements are currently being developed and implemented. Due to the complex nature of mitral anatomy, surgeons are more involved in TMVR and will likely maintain a significant role in TMVR in the future. The issue is, will technology get good enough that a mitral can be done safely and fully percutaneously? Probably, but not sure when.
Heart failure seems to be in the hands of CV for now. However, short term devices and pVADs are in development and could potentially see interventional entering the field in the coming 10 or so years. With that being said, the big long term destination therapy VADs like Heartmate III are still going to be surgery only for the forseeable future. In terms of stem cells, it is nascent, but the reality and probability is that interventional cardiology would have this field. A mesh or an injection would be easily done interventionally.
Transplant is obviously a CT only thing and will remain so. However, we are a long way off of mass produced transplantable organs, by the time they come most of us will probably be retired or close to it.
Will volumes drop? Probably. Volumes are currently stable because the population is aging and hitting the 60-80 peak of having open heart surgery. Once the boomers jump past 80, volumes will drop unless some new technology allowing safe and routine surgery in 90-100 yr olds comes. Then again, volumes have never been high for many surgical fields like Thoracics, which is why there traditionally have been more cardiac than thoracic surgeons at most institutions, in the next 15-20 years the ratio of cardiac:thoracic may drop, but cardiac will always be there. There will always be cases that are open heart only.