If you have strong numbers/ECs, then chances are that you will get into medical school. Someone posted the acceptance rates of applicants by MCAT scores.
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?s=&threadid=45362&highlight=statistics+MCAT
Here are the acceptance rates -
MCAT score of 38+ - 100%
MCAT Score of 34-38 - 81.0%
MCAT Score of 34+ - 82.7%
MCAT Score of 30-33 - 69.3%
MCAT Score of 30+ - 73.9%
I also made a few approximations based upon this data. There are about 35,000 applicants this year. Let us assume that 50% of applicants get in, leaving us with a pool of 17,500 accepted applicants. Of those 17,500, all of the 38+ MCAT scorers get in, 80% of the 34-38 MCAT scorers get in, and 73.9% of the 30-33 MCAT scorers get in.
This leaves us with 7894 acceptance slots and 21999 applicants, an overall acceptance rate of 35.9%, if your MCAT score is less than 30. I did a similar estimation for people with MCAT scores of less than 34 and I found that the overall acceptance rate was 45.3%.
The point of this exercise is that if your stats/ECs are not stellar, then your odds of getting into medical school are not that great. Therefore, it makes sense to try and apply to as many medical schools as possible to ensure that you get in.
I did one more approximation based on some simple probability calculations to determine the effects of applying to additional medical schools.
Let us assume that the average medical school accepts 10% of applicants. This means that you have a 90% chance of not getting accepted to a particular medical school. The probability of not getting accepted to n medical schools is therefore .9 ^ n. Alternatively, the probability of getting into at least one medical school is 1 - .9 ^ n
I ran this simulation under a variety of situations and here is what I found:
n = Number of Schools Applied to
p = Probability of Getting accepted into at least one school
Average Acceptance Rate of a Medical School = 10%
n = 5, p = 41.0%
n = 10, p = 65.1%
n = 15, p = 79.4%
n = 20, p = 87.8%
n = 25, p = 92.8%
n = 30, p = 95.8%
n = 40, p = 98.5%
I also ran this simulation under a number of different situations:
Average Acceptance Rate of a Medical School = 5%
n = 5, p = 22.6%
n = 10, p = 40.1%
n = 15, p = 53.7%
n = 20, p = 64.2%
n = 25, p = 72.3%
n = 30, p = 78.5%
n = 40, p = 87.2%
Average Acceptance Rate of a Medical School = 15%
n = 5, p = 55.6%
n = 10, p = 80.3%
n = 15, p = 91.3%
n = 20, p = 96.1%
n = 25, p = 98.3%
Average Acceptance Rate of a Medical School = 20%
n = 5, p = 67.2%
n = 10, p = 89.3%
n = 15, p = 96.5%
n = 20, p = 98.9%
Here are a few different combinations -
Assume that your probability of getting into a reach school is 5%, a mid level school is 10%, and a safety school is 15%.
Check out what happens with different combinations:
2 reach schools, 5 mid level schools, 3 safeties (total of 10 schools): p = 67.3%
4 reach schools, 10 mid level schools, 6 safeties (total of 20 schools): p = 89.3%
2 reach schools, 4 mid level schools, 4 safeties (total of 10 schools): p = 69.1%
2 reach schools, 9 mid level schools, 9 safeties (total of 20 schools): p = 91.9%
Obviously the acceptance rates to different medical schools vary considerably and all applicants are not equal. Applying to 20+ medical schools however can considerably improve your chances of getting in.
Take the situation in which an applicant has an average probability of getting accepted to a medical school of 5% (a reasonable approximation for a below average - average applicant). If he/she applied to only 10 schools, then he/she would only have a 40.1% probability of getting in. On the other hand, if he/she applies to 25 schools, then he/she would have a 72.3% chance of getting into med school. Would you pay an extra few thousand dollars to improve your chances of getting into medical school by that much?
I would.