Will I get into at least one of my ideal schools?

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vi0linm0nster

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So I was lucky enough to land interviews at UCSF, UCLA and UCSD, which I would be astonished to attend just one of those three!!!! Do I have a good chance to get in just one of those 3? I am very insecure about my 512 as an asian and my age lol although I do have a near 4.0 and great ECs (research pubs and presentations as well as experience with underserved)

Want to get a grasp to decide how nervous I should be for these interviews LOL....
 
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vi0linm0nster said:
So I was lucky enough to land interviews at UCSF, UCLA and UCSD, which I would be astonished to attend just one of those three!!!! Do I have a good chance to get in just one of those 3? I am very insecure about my 512 as an asian lol although I do have a near 4.0 and great ECs (research pubs and presentations as well as experience with underserved)

Want to get a grasp to decide how nervous I should be for these interviews LOL....
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You good, bruh. Chillax. They like you. Go forth on your conquest
 
vi0linm0nster said:
So I was lucky enough to land interviews at UCSF, UCLA and UCSD, which I would be astonished to attend just one of those three!!!! Do I have a good chance to get in just one of those 3? I am very insecure about my 512 as an asian and my age lol although I do have a near 4.0 and great ECs (research pubs and presentations as well as experience with underserved)

Want to get a grasp to decide how nervous I should be for these interviews LOL....
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Nobody can tell you for sure. But these schools don't have crazy MCAT medians anyway, and I think being in-state can at least add 2 more points on your MCAT. So yea, you are good. Just be yourself, you should land at least one.
 
vi0linm0nster said:
So I was lucky enough to land interviews at UCSF, UCLA and UCSD, which I would be astonished to attend just one of those three!!!! Do I have a good chance to get in just one of those 3? I am very insecure about my 512 as an asian and my age lol although I do have a near 4.0 and great ECs (research pubs and presentations as well as experience with underserved)

Want to get a grasp to decide how nervous I should be for these interviews LOL....
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This is impossible to answer, because getting accepted will be 100% on you
 
Please stop side-tracking the thread with comments that don't answer OP's question. There is a Social Thread available for your post-padding needs.

SDN Terms of Service include the statement:
7. Stay on topic. Our membership encourages open discussion and debate as long as it relates to the topic of the thread at hand.
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Goro said:
This is impossible to answer, because getting accepted will be 100% on you
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I know it will be on me, and I'm not a psychopath who will raise red flags in interviews, but assuming I am just the average interviewer and won't ENTIRELY impress someone, will my stats put me down during final review post interview to the point where I will be waitlisted/rejected to all 3 since they are top schools?
 
vi0linm0nster said:
I know it will be on me, and I'm not a psychopath who will raise red flags in interviews, but assuming I am just the average interviewer and won't ENTIRELY impress someone, will my stats put me down during final review post interview to the point where I will be waitlisted/rejected to all 3 since they are top schools?
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It's still impossible to predict something like this, anymore than if you went to the Olympic time trials.

In the mean time, read these:
 
Catalystik said:
Please stop side-tracking the thread with comments that don't answer OP's question. There is a Social Thread available for your post-padding needs.

SDN Terms of Service include the statement:
Click to expand...

Was about to post this. Keep the thread on topic. If you don’t have anything to say pertaining to the thread, take it to the social thread.
 
vi0linm0nster said:
So I was lucky enough to land interviews at UCSF, UCLA and UCSD, which I would be astonished to attend just one of those three!!!! Do I have a good chance to get in just one of those 3? I am very insecure about my 512 as an asian and my age lol although I do have a near 4.0 and great ECs (research pubs and presentations as well as experience with underserved)

Want to get a grasp to decide how nervous I should be for these interviews LOL....
Click to expand...

We need more details. How much research experience? How are your extracurriculars including time commitments? Employment? Shadowing? Volunteering (both clinical and nonclinical)? How well written were your essays? Do you generally interview well? Did you take rigorous courses or just the bare bones pre-requisites? What was the exact break down of your MCAT?
 
vi0linm0nster said:
So I was lucky enough to land interviews at UCSF, UCLA and UCSD, which I would be astonished to attend just one of those three!!!! Do I have a good chance to get in just one of those 3? I am very insecure about my 512 as an asian and my age lol although I do have a near 4.0 and great ECs (research pubs and presentations as well as experience with underserved)

Want to get a grasp to decide how nervous I should be for these interviews LOL....
Click to expand...

Assuming you are an average interviewee, based on their post II acceptance rates, you are 83% likely to receive atleast one acceptance from those three.
 
spuding102 said:
Assuming you are an average interviewee, based on their post II acceptance rates, you are 83% likely to receive atleast one acceptance from those three.
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Really?? Did you base this on post-II acceptance rates for ORMs with a 512 MCAT? I don't mean to make OP any more anxious than he already is, but I'll bet they're less than 83% at at least one of those three.

OP - being nervous will not help and will only serve to psych yourself out. You applied despite knowing the long odds based on your MCAT and ORM status, and you defied the odds and got the IIs. You have a much better chance than everyone with a 512 (and above!) who did not (and will not) get an II, but yeah, you're not in as good a shape going in as someone with an II and an MCAT from 513-528. It's too late to do anything about your MCAT (at least for this cycle! 🙂), so, please just focus on @Goro's great advice and do your best without worrying about things you can't control.
 
Had a friend who interviewed at all those schools plus UC Davis. All ended up in waitlists that they never came off. Pretty wild, unfortunately
 
vi0linm0nster said:
So I was lucky enough to land interviews at UCSF, UCLA and UCSD, which I would be astonished to attend just one of those three!!!! Do I have a good chance to get in just one of those 3? I am very insecure about my 512 as an asian and my age lol although I do have a near 4.0 and great ECs (research pubs and presentations as well as experience with underserved)

Want to get a grasp to decide how nervous I should be for these interviews LOL....
Click to expand...

Answering your title:
“Will” you get an acceptance?

No one knows. That’s up to you and your interviewing skills. If you can get into one (based on good interviewing skills plus your app), you would likely get into others but if you’re looking for certainty on whether you WILL get into those, no one on sdn will be able to tell you that. The answer you are looking for is an unknowable.

Just give it your all and hope for the best.
 
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KnightDoc said:
Really?? Did you base this on post-II acceptance rates for ORMs with a 512 MCAT? I don't mean to make OP any more anxious than he already is, but I'll bet they're less than 83% at at least one of those three.

OP - being nervous will not help and will only serve to psych yourself out. You applied despite knowing the long odds based on your MCAT and ORM status, and you defied the odds and got the IIs. You have a much better chance than everyone with a 512 (and above!) who did not (and will not) get an II, but yeah, you're not in as good a shape going in as someone with an II and an MCAT from 513-528. It's too late to do anything about your MCAT (at least for this cycle! 🙂), so, please just focus on @Goro's great advice and do your best without worrying about things you can't control.
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No this is based on the post II acceptance rates for these schools. And assuming the OP is the average applicant. In reality, their chances are likely a bit lower, but, and this is important, the fact they received invites to those 3 indicate there is some part of his app that they liked. It was more than just luck. If I was a betting man, I’d put his chances of getting in to at least one at 50-60 percent. Just my opinion
 
spuding102 said:
Assuming you are an average interviewee, based on their post II acceptance rates, you are 83% likely to receive atleast one acceptance from those three.
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i think the chance of getting into each school is independent of each other, so there's no additive or conditional probability. OP, just go shoot your shot and worry about your chance later.
 
notsobabydoc said:
i think the chance of getting into each school is independent of each other, so there's no additive or conditional probability. OP, just go shoot your shot and worry about your chance later.
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They are independent of each other which is why I was able to do this calculation. This calculation is basically saying, what is the chances they get rejected by all 3 (assuming each schools decision does not influence any other schools decision) ? Then you can know the chances of getting into atleast one.
 
spuding102 said:
They are independent of each other which is why I was able to do this calculation. This calculation is basically saying, what is the chances they get rejected by all 3 (assuming each schools decision does not influence any other schools decision) ? Then you can know the chances of getting into atleast one.
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actually, the three random variables added together is a normal distribution. So the mean of the new variable is the average the of the three, but the standard deviation is a bit more complicated to calculate. I don't think you can add together the probability of not getting into one school to get the probability of not getting into all three.
 
notsobabydoc said:
actually, the three random variables added together is a normal distribution. So the mean of the new variable is the average the of the three, but the standard deviation is a bit more complicated to calculate. I don't think you can add together the probability of not getting into one school to get the probability of not getting into all three.
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I didn’t add the probabilities to get a normal distribution. I multiplied the chances of not getting into each one. If the post II acceptance rates are 40%, 30%, 25%, all I did is (1-0.4)(1-0.3)(1-.25) = prob of getting rejected by all three schools. Then 1-this number = chances of acceptance to atleast one
 
spuding102 said:
I didn’t add the probabilities to get a normal distribution. I multiplied the chances of not getting into each one. If the post II acceptance rates are 40%, 30%, 25%, all I did is (1-0.4)(1-0.3)(1-.25) = prob of getting rejected by all three schools. Then 1-this number = chances of acceptance to atleast one
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that's good. So the real chance, being highly dependent on OP's interview performance, a confounding factor, will be either close to 100% or close to 0% lol. OK, here's your answer OP.
 
notsobabydoc said:
that's good. So the real chance, being highly dependent on OP's interview performance, a confounding factor, will be either close to 100% or close to 0% lol. OK, here's your answer OP.
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Yep your definitely right. But if they are “average” then this should be the probability.
 
spuding102 said:
No this is based on the post II acceptance rates for these schools. And assuming the OP is the average applicant. In reality, their chances are likely a bit lower, but, and this is important, the fact they received invites to those 3 indicate there is some part of his app that they liked. It was more than just luck. If I was a betting man, I’d put his chances of getting in to at least one at 50-60 percent. Just my opinion
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🙂 I know exactly what you did, and I was just being a bit of a wiseguy. The fact is, the stats are an average of all IIs receiving As, and while everyone receiving an II certainly has a chance, those chances aren't equal for everyone, which is the fatal flaw in your assumption. You apparently assume everyone receiving an II has an equal chance for an A, to be determined solely by interview performance. This is demonstrably untrue. Interview performance is just one more metric that goes into the hopper when adcoms make decisions.

OP's question was whether he had a "good chance" of receiving an A at UCSF, UCLA or UCSD, being an ORM with a 512 MCAT and IIs. The only reasonable answer is that "good" is probably a stretch, given that 512 is close to 10th %ile at UCSF, and below 25 %ile at UCLA and UCSD, and average stats for ORMs are always a little higher than for non-ORMs, and a lot higher than for URMs. OP definitely has a shot since he has IIs, but rather than applying some basic statistics to the question in order to come up with an answer that applies to an "average" applicant, the better response might have been to ask how many of the matriculants at at least one of those schools below the MCAT 25th %ile are ORMs. I'll bet that answer is closer to zero than 83%, and that's why OP is nervous!

Still, at this point there is nothing to be gained by OP stressing about this, since it hasn't changed since he applied. The best advice is for him to be happy about the IIs (which he clearly is), do his best on the interviews, and not freak out about factors beyond his control.
 
KnightDoc said:
🙂 I know exactly what you did, and I was just being a bit of a wiseguy. The fact is, the stats are an average of all IIs receiving As, and while everyone receiving an II certainly has a chance, those chances aren't equal for everyone, which is the fatal flaw in your assumption. You apparently assume everyone receiving an II has an equal chance for an A, to be determined solely by interview performance. This is demonstrably untrue. Interview performance is just one more metric that goes into the hopper when adcoms make decisions.

OP's question was whether he had a "good chance" of receiving an A at UCSF, UCLA or UCSD, being an ORM with a 512 MCAT and IIs. The only reasonable answer is that "good" is probably a stretch, given that 512 is close to 10th %ile at UCSF, and below 25 %ile at UCLA and UCSD, and average stats for ORMs are always a little higher than for non-ORMs, and a lot higher than for URMs. OP definitely has a shot since he has IIs, but rather than applying some basic statistics to the question in order to come up with an answer that applies to an "average" applicant, the better response might have been to ask how many of the matriculants at at least one of those schools below the MCAT 25th %ile are ORMs. I'll bet that answer is closer to zero than 83%, and that's why OP is nervous!

Still, at this point there is nothing to be gained by OP stressing about this, since it hasn't changed since he applied. The best advice is for him to be happy about the IIs (which he clearly is), do his best on the interviews, and not freak out about factors beyond his control.
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Ok, let's do this math! Assuming the acceptance rate for each school is 30% even across the board, Then assume that acceptance rate is for average interviewees, meaning for the ones with medium MCAT score, so OP falls on the 10% at UCSF, I will slap a discount of 0.25, and 0.5 on UCLA and 0.6 at UCSD, so the math goes 1-(1-0.3*0.25)(1-.3*0.5)(1-0.3*0.6) and that gives OP 35.6% chance of getting into at least one school.
 
KnightDoc said:
🙂 I know exactly what you did, and I was just being a bit of a wiseguy. The fact is, the stats are an average of all IIs receiving As, and while everyone receiving an II certainly has a chance, those chances aren't equal for everyone, which is the fatal flaw in your assumption. You apparently assume everyone receiving an II has an equal chance for an A, to be determined solely by interview performance. This is demonstrably untrue. Interview performance is just one more metric that goes into the hopper when adcoms make decisions.

OP's question was whether he had a "good chance" of receiving an A at UCSF, UCLA or UCSD, being an ORM with a 512 MCAT and IIs. The only reasonable answer is that "good" is probably a stretch, given that 512 is close to 10th %ile at UCSF, and below 25 %ile at UCLA and UCSD, and average stats for ORMs are always a little higher than for non-ORMs, and a lot higher than for URMs. OP definitely has a shot since he has IIs, but rather than applying some basic statistics to the question in order to come up with an answer that applies to an "average" applicant, the better response might have been to ask how many of the matriculants at at least one of those schools below the MCAT 25th %ile are ORMs. I'll bet that answer is closer to zero than 83%, and that's why OP is nervous!

Still, at this point there is nothing to be gained by OP stressing about this, since it hasn't changed since he applied. The best advice is for him to be happy about the IIs (which he clearly is), do his best on the interviews, and not freak out about factors beyond his control.
Click to expand...
notsobabydoc said:
Ok, let's do this math! Assuming the acceptance rate for each school is 30% even across the board, Then assume that acceptance rate is for average interviewees, meaning for the ones with medium MCAT score, so OP falls on the 10% at UCSF, I will slap a discount of 0.25, and 0.5 on UCLA and 0.6 at UCSD, so the math goes 1-(1-0.3*0.25)(1-.3*0.5)(1-0.3*0.6) and that gives OP 35.6% chance of getting into at least one school.
Click to expand...

But the wildcard will be OP’s interviewing abilities/the holistic factor. How will you account for that in your calculations. Please advise 🤔 😆 🤣
 
notsobabydoc said:
Ok, let's do this math! Assuming the acceptance rate for each school is 30% even across the board, Then assume that acceptance rate is for average interviewees, meaning for the ones with medium MCAT score, so OP falls on the 10% at UCSF, I will slap a discount of 0.25, and 0.5 on UCLA and 0.6 at UCSD, so the math goes 1-(1-0.3*0.25)(1-.3*0.5)(1-0.3*0.6) and that gives OP 35.6% chance of getting into at least one school.
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But ... you really can't do the math, because you're pulling the discounts out of your butt. Even without accounting for interviewing skills (as @Engrailed correctly points out), you're also failing to account for the fact that very few (or none) of the matriculants at these particular schools below the 25 %ile might be ORMs, so maybe the discount is .7, .8, or .9. Depending on what the rest of the application looks like, the OP's chances could literally be anywhere between 0% and 100%, and you have no way to know what the number is, even though you have now speculated 83%, a little lower than 83%, and 36%, based on how you are applying random variables to averages! 🙂

The fact is, we have no idea how "good" a chance at an A an ORM has with a way below average (for the school) MCAT. It might be great, and it might be terrible, but the odds of it tracking an "average" are close to zero, because over 75% of the people interviewing are going to have higher MCATs, and a significant number of the rest are going to be bringing something else to the table (diversity) besides great ECs. I'm sure the rest of the application is spectacular, but we have no way to know where that leaves the OP after the interview. I just think it's naive to think it leaves him in the same position as everyone else who interviews, given where he is starting out from ORM and MCAT. Don't want to be unduly pessimistic, but also don't want to sugarcoat issues the OP has spotted.
 
MSAR would be amazing if it had MCAT stats for applicants and IIs. Wouldnt that be great
 
KnightDoc said:
But ... you really can't do the math, because you're pulling the discounts out of your butt. Even without accounting for interviewing skills (as @Engrailed correctly points out), you're also failing to account for the fact that very few (or none) of the matriculants at these particular schools below the 25 %ile might be ORMs, so maybe the discount is .7, .8, or .9. Depending on what the rest of the application looks like, the OP's chances could literally be anywhere between 0% and 100%, and you have no way to know what the number is, even though you have now speculated 83%, a little lower than 83%, and 36%, based on how you are applying random variables to averages! 🙂

The fact is, we have no idea how "good" a chance at an A an ORM has with a way below average (for the school) MCAT. It might be great, and it might be terrible, but the odds of it tracking an "average" are close to zero, because over 75% of the people interviewing are going to have higher MCATs, and a significant number of the rest are going to be bringing something else to the table (diversity) besides great ECs. I'm sure the rest of the application is spectacular, but we have no way to know where that leaves the OP after the interview. I just think it's naive to think it leaves him in the same position as everyone else who interviews, given where he is starting out from ORM and MCAT. Don't want to be unduly pessimistic, but also don't want to sugarcoat issues the OP has spotted.
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Of course I pulled that number out of my butt lol.
 
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