Your #1 Specialty Choice if you got a Step 1 Score of 190, 200, 210, 220, etc.?

[IwannabeDrP]

Is there much data (or speculation) on the probability of scoring a 210, 220, or 230 given "x, y, or z" MCAT score? I know, I know, nothing is written in stone. I'm just looking to gather perspective because these scores are still simply numbers to me

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[badasshairday]

Is there much data (or speculation) on the probability of scoring a 210, 220, or 230 given "x, y, or z" MCAT score? I know, I know, nothing is written in stone. I'm just looking to gather perspective because these scores are still simply numbers to me

I think there is something out about that.

I know people on SDN would say the verbal reasoning is the most important. I think it is complete bull****. I'd say the science sections are more important predictors into how you would do on Step 1. For the record, I scored an 8 on VR, a 12 on PS, and a 13 on BS. Scored 250 on Step 1. So screw verbal reasoning.

 

[D elegans]

-

 

[jkurtz02]

Is there much data (or speculation) on the probability of scoring a 210, 220, or 230 given "x, y, or z" MCAT score? I know, I know, nothing is written in stone. I'm just looking to gather perspective because these scores are still simply numbers to me

Doubt there is much accuracy in it, but there is an estimator based on MCAT on this site

http://www.medfriends.org/step1_estimator/

 

[Dwindlin]

I think there is something out about that.

I know people on SDN would say the verbal reasoning is the most important. I think it is complete bull****. I'd say the science sections are more important predictors into how you would do on Step 1. For the record, I scored an 8 on VR, a 12 on PS, and a 13 on BS. Scored 250 on Step 1. So screw verbal reasoning.

I was always told VR is the most important section simply because historically it is the section many people do worst on (myself included). I've never heard VR specifically being linked to success.

 

[IwannabeDrP]

Doubt there is much accuracy in it, but there is an estimator based on MCAT on this site

http://www.medfriends.org/step1_estimator/

Ya, thanks. I found the same thing, but it seems a bit questionable. With a 31 MCAT (average matriculant), it gives an estimated step 1 score of 233 +/- 17 (wtf standard dev). Given that the national average for step 1 normally falls between 215-220, the predicted score seems inflated. I guess it does fall within the ridiculous standard dev

 

[PinkIvy08]

I was always told VR is the most important section simply because historically it is the section many people do worst on (myself included). I've never heard VR specifically being linked to success.

Good to know!

 

[cowme]

I was always told VR is the most important section simply because historically it is the section many people do worst on (myself included). I've never heard VR specifically being linked to success.

I remember coming across an article that said verbal has the lowest correlation of the three sections to usmle score.

 

[kjamess]

I remember coming across an article that said verbal has the lowest correlation of the three sections to usmle score.

Yea a study was published showing the bio section as having the strongest correlation (no surprise there) with verbal being the weakest of the three. Too lazy to link the article though.

 

[2012mdc]

Ya, thanks. I found the same thing, but it seems a bit questionable. With a 31 MCAT (average matriculant), it gives an estimated step 1 score of 233 +/- 17 (wtf standard dev). Given that the national average for step 1 normally falls between 215-220, the predicted score seems inflated. I guess it does fall within the ridiculous standard dev

I thought the nat'l avg had trended up to 225?

And people can take the MCAT over to improve their score so I'm guessing that inflates that average a little bit

 

[officedepot]

I thought the nat'l avg had trended up to 225?

And people can take the MCAT over to improve their score so I'm guessing that inflates that average a little bit

on my step 1 test results it said the average was 221 +/- 24 or so I think. Pretty big range.

And yeah don't use MCAT to see how well you will do on step 1. Study hard M1 and M2 years and then step 1 stuff will seem like mostly review and you'll do fine. Using your MCAT isn't a good indicator. Use USMLE world or Kaplan Qbank scores to see how well you fair on the real deal.

 

[justaregularmed]

You just outed yourself as a troll.

220 is certainly do-able for ortho, and step1 scores are only part of the equation that goes into offering interviews. But you already knew that. Stop spreading misinformation.

So out of the US grads only 42% matched with a score below 230. Of those who went unmatched 70% had scores below 230. I would say that is a risky proposition, possible but risky.

So you both are wrong really. I would say Ortho becomes a safe bet at about 230 ~80% matched, and a lock at 240 ~ 90%.

It's always a crap shoot, I mean how reachy are you all willing to get.

 

[thefritz]

So out of the US grads only 42% matched with a score below 230. Of those who went unmatched 70% had scores below 230. I would say that is a risky proposition, possible but risky.

So you both are wrong really. I would say Ortho becomes a safe bet at about 230 ~80% matched, and a lock at 240 ~ 90%.

It's always a crap shoot, I mean how reachy are you all willing to get.

Even if I had a 200, if I wanted to be an orthopedic surgeon more than anything else, I would still try in the match with any programs that didn't have cutoffs. Not matching the first time isn't the end of the world, and I personally couldn't accept not trying.

 

[justaregularmed]

Even if I had a 200, if I wanted to be an orthopedic surgeon more than anything else, I would still try in the match with any programs that didn't have cutoffs. Not matching the first time isn't the end of the world, and I personally couldn't accept not trying.

Fair 'nuff.

But it doesn't hurt the play the numbers in your favor, and not play when they are not.

 

[jkurtz02]

Ya, thanks. I found the same thing, but it seems a bit questionable. With a 31 MCAT (average matriculant), it gives an estimated step 1 score of 233 +/- 17 (wtf standard dev). Given that the national average for step 1 normally falls between 215-220, the predicted score seems inflated. I guess it does fall within the ridiculous standard dev

The average US matriculant is a 31 MCAT, keep in mind many people who have lower MCAT scores matriculate into other schools and then take the USMLE. I don't know this for a fact, but my guess is the average US 2nd year taking the USMLE may have a 233 average.

 

[IwannabeDrP]

The average US matriculant is a 31 MCAT, keep in mind many people who have lower MCAT scores matriculate into other schools and then take the USMLE. I don't know this for a fact, but my guess is the average US 2nd year taking the USMLE may have a 233 average.

For whatever its worth, good ole' Wikipedia to the rescue:

At present, the national mean score is 221, with a standard deviation of 24; an increase from the previous two means, which were 218 (standard deviation of 23) and 215 (standard deviation 20).

So there is a decent amount of variability from year to year...

 

[EctopicACTH]

The average US matriculant is a 31 MCAT, keep in mind many people who have lower MCAT scores matriculate into other schools and then take the USMLE. I don't know this for a fact, but my guess is the average US 2nd year taking the USMLE may have a 233 average.

According to an official USMLE score report... "the mean and standard deviation for first-time examinees from U.S. and Canadian medical schools are approximately 221 and 24, respectively". The reported mean of LCME schools is 221 (currently), this effectively excludes IMGS and "many people who have lower MCAT scores [who] matriculate into other schools and take the USMLE".

 

[shaggy alfresco]

According to an official USMLE score report... "the mean and standard deviation for first-time examinees from U.S. and Canadian medical schools are approximately 221 and 24, respectively". The reported mean of LCME schools is 221 (currently), this effectively excludes IMGS and "many people who have lower MCAT scores [who] matriculate into other schools and take the USMLE".

That's a very large SD. It's interesting that all specialties' average USMLE score is within 1 SD of the average USMLE score - even though Integrated Plastics is threatening the outer edge there.

 

[MacVA]

Getting back on topic...

I know two people that matched gas with low board scores. One failed; the other got a 191.

So apply based on what you like...

 

[shaggy alfresco]

You're going to be doing this for 20, 30, maybe even upto 40 years....is it worth settling on a different specialty because you don't want to spend an extra year doing research and/or otherwise improving your application? Unless my application is completely and absolutely out of the running for some reason, I'd take my chance and apply even without a 90%+ chance of matching.

 

[ar2388]

You're going to be doing this for 20, 30, maybe even upto 40 years....is it worth settling on a different specialty because you don't want to spend an extra year doing research and/or otherwise improving your application? Unless my application is completely and absolutely out of the running for some reason, I'd take my chance and apply even without a 90%+ chance of matching.

i think it depends on whats important for you.... i love rads but if my score isnt good enough for rads in NYC, then id rather do something else in NYC instead of rads somewhere else... for me location is much much much much much more important than what im doing.

 

[shaggy alfresco]

i think it depends on whats important for you.... i love rads but if my score isnt good enough for rads in NYC, then id rather do something else in NYC instead of rads somewhere else... for me location is much much much much much more important than what im doing.

Location during your residency is that much more important to you than your career for the rest of your life?

Well to each his own I guess, everyone has their priorities. I've spent my life in a career that I hated, not doing that **** again.

 

[badasshairday]

Location during your residency is that much more important to you than your career for the rest of your life?

Well to each his own I guess, everyone has their priorities. I've spent my life in a career that I hated, not doing that **** again.

If you like 2-3 specialties nearly equally well, then I can see how that can be a factor. I'm a believer that there is not just ONE road to happiness. One ER attending told me that he didn't make up his mind until August of his 4th year and felt he enjoyed EM, Neuro, and some other specialty, and felt that he would have been happy either way.

There is two specialties that have really piqued my interest and I definitely can see myself happy practicing either one in 20-30 years in the future... Luckily I am competitive for both and have a decent shot for the location I want to be in.

 

[ar2388]

location definitely wins over. i really really like rads but i can also see myself really enjyoing being a gastroenterologist or even a neurologist. but i know whatever i do, i will be happiest in Nyc

 

[DrBowtie]

So short sighted for 5-6 years

 

[shaggy alfresco]

If you like 2-3 specialties nearly equally well, then I can see how that can be a factor. I'm a believer that there is not just ONE road to happiness. One ER attending told me that he didn't make up his mind until August of his 4th year and felt he enjoyed EM, Neuro, and some other specialty, and felt that he would have been happy either way.

There is two specialties that have really piqued my interest and I definitely can see myself happy practicing either one in 20-30 years in the future... Luckily I am competitive for both and have a decent shot for the location I want to be in.

Of course there usually is, but obviously even if something is slightly less desirable, I wouldn't do it for the sake of my training period in a bad location....and give up that slightly more happiness for the next 40 years. But again, I can't speak for anyone else, everyone has their own criteria.

 

[muhali3]

Location during your residency is that much more important to you than your career for the rest of your life?

Well to each his own I guess, everyone has their priorities. I've spent my life in a career that I hated, not doing that **** again.

Residency in a certain location makes it much easier to get a job in the area post-residency.

 

[shaggy alfresco]

Residency in a certain location makes it much easier to get a job in the area post-residency.

My only criteria:
[YOUTUBE=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeTWn_kCQUY]Yup[/YOUTUBE]








Kidding. Did that in my previous career. It's not worth it.

 

[ArcGurren]

Residency in a certain location makes it much easier to get a job in the area post-residency.

Only kind of true. In more selective residencies everyone knows each other (like plastics, specialty surgeries, etc) so being on one side of the country doesn't make you less palatable on the other side of the country.

 

[RLMitchell1]

The fact that people are putting such vastly different specialties on their lists separated by only 10-20 Step 1 points indicates a total lack of self awareness regarding what sort of career you want and what will make you happy in the long run. I considered a few highly competitive specialities during my soul searching process, and the message I received again and again was that it is only a small percentage of students that should really cross certain residencies off of their list based on flaws in their application. You are going to be doing this for the rest of your LIFE. If you really want to shoot for a competitive residency, is it really so awful to take a year or two off to strengthen your application, or plan on spending a few years in a less than desirable geographic location? Would you really rather always ask "what could have been" and have bitterness towards your speciality, than spend a few years in a community program or less than ideal state?

Do you want a narrow or broad scope of practice? Are you ok with being restricted to a tertiary care facility or geographic region for the rest of your career? Are you okay with the specialties that all but ensure you will have a boss for the rest of your life? What is your preferred population? Do you want a career that lends itself well to exploring public health questions, global health, underserved medicine, etc? What is the opportunity cost to you of 3 years of residency versus 10, and of the schedule you will have to keep to practice? Extremely importantly given the volatility of our current health care system and reimbursement: would you still prefer that speciality if its reimbursement dropped to be more equitable with a generalist IM/Peds/FP, (150-250 k), or even just a hundred k or two?

I scored >230 on Step 1, >240 on Step 2, honored >2/3 of my third year rotations, and go to a top ten medical school. And I am absolutely set on Family Medicine for residency. Those of you putting FM on your list only if you receive a crap Step 1 score and otherwise have interests in specialities with almost nothing in common make me feel sorry for you. You are going to be miserable in your career. And frankly I hope you are nowhere near my residency program.

 

[RLMitchell1]

Maybe I missed this, but I haven't seen any discussion of applying and ranking for two specialities. I know several people who have done this for something highly competitive like ortho, 2 were successful, 2 were not.

 

[Sheldor]

The fact that people are putting such vastly different specialties on their lists separated by only 10-20 Step 1 points indicates a total lack of self awareness regarding what sort of career you want and what will make you happy in the long run. I considered a few highly competitive specialities during my soul searching process, and the message I received again and again was that it is only a small percentage of students that should really cross certain residencies off of their list based on flaws in their application. You are going to be doing this for the rest of your LIFE. If you really want to shoot for a competitive residency, is it really so awful to take a year or two off to strengthen your application, or plan on spending a few years in a less than desirable geographic location? Would you really rather always ask "what could have been" and have bitterness towards your speciality, than spend a few years in a community program or less than ideal state?

Do you want a narrow or broad scope of practice? Are you ok with being restricted to a tertiary care facility or geographic region for the rest of your career? Are you okay with the specialties that all but ensure you will have a boss for the rest of your life? What is your preferred population? Do you want a career that lends itself well to exploring public health questions, global health, underserved medicine, etc? What is the opportunity cost to you of 3 years of residency versus 10, and of the schedule you will have to keep to practice? Extremely importantly given the volatility of our current health care system and reimbursement: would you still prefer that speciality if its reimbursement dropped to be more equitable with a generalist IM/Peds/FP, (150-250 k), or even just a hundred k or two?

I scored >230 on Step 1, >240 on Step 2, honored >2/3 of my third year rotations, and go to a top ten medical school. And I am absolutely set on Family Medicine for residency. Those of you putting FM on your list only if you receive a crap Step 1 score and otherwise have interests in specialities with almost nothing in common make me feel sorry for you. You are going to be miserable in your career. And frankly I hope you are nowhere near my residency program.

I agree, but also I think that not everyone has ONLY one specialty that fits these criteria. Even two specialties that seem vastly different could both be a perfect fit for someone. So if thats the case and location, for whatever reason, is also very important I don't see any reason why you couldn't apply to both, or change it based on step score.

Thats all, but thanks for a great list of things to ask oneself as you decide what specialty!

 

[2012mdc]

I agree, but also I think that not everyone has ONLY one specialty that fits these criteria. Even two specialties that seem vastly different could both be a perfect fit for someone. So if thats the case and location, for whatever reason, is also very important I don't see any reason why you couldn't apply to both, or change it based on step score.

Thats all, but thanks for a great list of things to ask oneself as you decide what specialty!

A difference of 10 points shouldn't influence what specialties you apply to, it should only influence how you apply to them (more programs, more community ones, bigger geographic range, prelims on your primary ROL etc)

Obviously if you are shooting for plastics and fail step 1 you have to reconsider but scoring a 220 vs a 240 shouldn't lead to widely different specialties just because of the score.

 

[Law2Doc]

so a high step 1 just opens doors to interviews right. after that it's a crapshoot like medical school processes? (ie all applicants invited for interviews are on equal footings)

It's not so much a crapshoot as the fact that after Step 1scores, some places value some things more than others (especially research, interesting lives). It's a lot about fit - this is going to be your family for up to 80 hours per week for 3+ years. It's a lot about the residents who came from your school before you. I know programs who had really good experience with graduates from X school, and so they go back to that well time after time. the converse is also true -- a program that feels burned by a series of residents who snubbed them in the rank lists might not take seriously the next handful of residents from that school. Like med school, the scores are only part of the equation. Networking, contacts and how well you sell yourself in audition rotations and interviews are huge.

As for sliding scale of career choices based on scores, I would suggest you don't do this. Figure out what you like, and pick the fields you like the best. If you are sports injury oriented, there are roles for that within ortho, PM&R, and family medicine. If you want to be an internist, you can get their through IM or family medicine. if you like the diagnostic component without the patient contact, radiology and pathology may be on the same continuum. And so on. But you should never be toying with totally disparate fields like derm vs rads vs IM vs peds. You have to make a decision about your desired role first, and see what options are open to you with comparable roles once you get the scores.

 

[Sheldor]

A difference of 10 points shouldn't influence what specialties you apply to, it should only influence how you apply to them (more programs, more community ones, bigger geographic range, prelims on your primary ROL etc)

Obviously if you are shooting for plastics and fail step 1 you have to reconsider but scoring a 220 vs a 240 shouldn't lead to widely different specialties just because of the score.

I'd argue the alternative if you have a low threshold for risk. Based on the charting outcomes a 220 could give you fairly low percentage in terms of match probability for some specialties. Further, if you'd be just as happy in a field that you have a greater than 90% chance of matching why not go for that one? Further, many people say things like, "Taking a year off isn't the end of the world!" I agree, but for some non-trads it really isn't an option due to families, etc. Also, some people may prioritize getting to their career over a particular specialty choice...

Its not that I completely disagree with you, rather I just think there is a shade of grey that gets glossed over on SDN sometimes. If you would be happy in Derm or Internal medicine there is big difference between which you should go for if you get a 210 or a 250.

As to the 10 point difference, I'd agree with you there. Unless its the difference between a 220 and a 210 for a specialty with an extremely high average. If a 210 is two standard deviations below the average for a particular specialty, I'd argue that the difference between the 210 and 220 could make a difference.

Also, to expand on what I said earlier I honestly believe that some people have multiple specialties they'd be happy in so bringing in other information such as: Chance of matching where you want to live and chance of not having to take a year off come into play. Its not wrong, just different than those students who fall in love with only one specialty.

 

[Law2Doc]

...

Also, to expand on what I said earlier I honestly believe that some people have multiple specialties they'd be happy in so bringing in other information such as: Chance of matching where you want to live and chance of not having to take a year off come into play. Its not wrong, just different than those students who fall in love with only one specialty.

it's more often you have two specialties you wouldn't hate. But you won't have two you like equally. If you do come to that conclusion you usually just haven't put in the time to expose yourself enough, talk to folks in the field, etc.

 

[2012mdc]

I'd argue the alternative if you have a low threshold for risk. Based on the charting outcomes a 220 could give you fairly low percentage in terms of match probability for some specialties. Further, if you'd be just as happy in a field that you have a greater than 90% chance of matching why not go for that one? Further, many people say things like, "Taking a year off isn't the end of the world!" I agree, but for some non-trads it really isn't an option due to families, etc. Also, some people may prioritize getting to their career over a particular specialty choice...

Its not that I completely disagree with you, rather I just think there is a shade of grey that gets glossed over on SDN sometimes. If you would be happy in Derm or Internal medicine there is big difference between which you should go for if you get a 210 or a 250.

As to the 10 point difference, I'd agree with you there. Unless its the difference between a 220 and a 210 for a specialty with an extremely high average. If a 210 is two standard deviations below the average for a particular specialty, I'd argue that the difference between the 210 and 220 could make a difference.

Also, to expand on what I said earlier I honestly believe that some people have multiple specialties they'd be happy in so bringing in other information such as: Chance of matching where you want to live and chance of not having to take a year off come into play. Its not wrong, just different than those students who fall in love with only one specialty.

I agree with some of what you are saying. But if someone is set on derm with a 210 they can still apply to IM as a backup. Having a low percentage of matching just by the charting outcomes isn't a good reason to eliminate your 1st choice specialty. To match anywhere in IM isn't hard and it is a legit backup option to have.

My point is that the cut-offs of when not to apply are very abitrary.

it's more often you have two specialties you wouldn't hate. But you won't have two you like equally. If you do come to that conclusion you usually just haven't put in the time to expose yourself enough, talk to folks in the field, etc.

I agree. But it can be pretty hard to decide if you actually haven't had responsibility in the specialty.

 

[Law2Doc]

...

I agree. But it can be pretty hard to decide if you actually haven't had responsibility in the specialty.

no question. But there's always more you can do in terms of talking to folks in the field and seeing more. For many, to some extent saying you can't decide is just a bit of an excuse to justify laziness.

 

[2012mdc]

no question. But there's always more you can do in terms of talking to folks in the field and seeing more. For many, to some extent saying you can't decide is just a bit of an excuse to justify laziness.

Very true.

 

[Jessipeds]

 

[Jessipeds]

The fact that people are putting such vastly different specialties on their lists separated by only 10-20 Step 1 points indicates a total lack of self awareness regarding what sort of career you want and what will make you happy in the long run. I considered a few highly competitive specialities during my soul searching process, and the message I received again and again was that it is only a small percentage of students that should really cross certain residencies off of their list based on flaws in their application. You are going to be doing this for the rest of your LIFE. If you really want to shoot for a competitive residency, is it really so awful to take a year or two off to strengthen your application, or plan on spending a few years in a less than desirable geographic location? Would you really rather always ask "what could have been" and have bitterness towards your speciality, than spend a few years in a community program or less than ideal state?

Do you want a narrow or broad scope of practice? Are you ok with being restricted to a tertiary care facility or geographic region for the rest of your career? Are you okay with the specialties that all but ensure you will have a boss for the rest of your life? What is your preferred population? Do you want a career that lends itself well to exploring public health questions, global health, underserved medicine, etc? What is the opportunity cost to you of 3 years of residency versus 10, and of the schedule you will have to keep to practice? Extremely importantly given the volatility of our current health care system and reimbursement: would you still prefer that speciality if its reimbursement dropped to be more equitable with a generalist IM/Peds/FP, (150-250 k), or even just a hundred k or two?

I scored >230 on Step 1, >240 on Step 2, honored >2/3 of my third year rotations, and go to a top ten medical school. And I am absolutely set on Family Medicine for residency. Those of you putting FM on your list only if you receive a crap Step 1 score and otherwise have interests in specialities with almost nothing in common make me feel sorry for you. You are going to be miserable in your career. And frankly I hope you are nowhere near my residency program.

 

[shan564]

<210 - psych at an average program
210-240 - psych at WashU or Mayo
240+ - psych at MGH

 

[CDI]

< 280 im

 

[DrMattOglesby]

190 - 260+: Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation

 

[Spinach Dip]

190 Anesthesia
200 Anesthesia
210 Anesthesia
220 Anesthesia
230 Anesthesia
240 Anesthesia
250 Anesthesia
260+ Derm, maybe. But otherwise: Anesthesia



So call me uncreative.

 

[Textbookversion]

IM regardless of score

 

[kindasorta]

This thread is going well.

 

[bjb305]

fun game but this is obviously the winner

Step 1 score 0-300 = radiology

 

[D elegans]

190 - FM
200 - Psych
210 - PMR
220 - Neuro
230 - IM then GI
240 - Rads
250 - RadOnc
260 - Derm
270 - Aerospace Medicine

Here's hoping

 

[MilkmanAl]

190 Anesthesia
200 Anesthesia
210 Anesthesia
220 Anesthesia
230 Anesthesia
240 Anesthesia
250 Anesthesia
260+ Derm, maybe. But otherwise: Anesthesia



So call me uncreative.

Seconded except that I'm not terribly sure I'd want to do anesthesia at a program that'd take me with a 190. That could make for a really rough 4 years. I might do family instead, at that point.