Thanks for the sound advice. I agree that it's best for all parties if both sides want each other- unfortunately the "things being equal" rule can apply the other way as well, and may force applicants to change their ROLs against their better judgement.
For example, take the following senario, where an applicant has two programs that he/she is greatly interested in, with program #1 being slightly preferrable to #2. In the true spirit of the match the applicant would expect to rank the programs in that order.
However, If program #2 contacts the applicant two weeks before the deadline and states that they are very excited about their candidacy, but that they want to know how the applicant feels about them (making the applicant believe that they won't be ranked unless they are #1) and program #1 does not contact the applicant at all (either because they are playing by the "spirit" of the match or because they aren't very interested or some other reason), the applicant may feel compelled to change his ROL and put #2 first. The reasoning for this move would be that if the applicant doesn not match at #1 (which may seem reasonable since they weren't contacted), they would also not match at #2 (since they gave up that opportunity), and fall to #3.
On the other hand, the applicant can do as you suggest, and tell #1 that they would rank them as such to "feel" them out. But if the program sends only a luke-warm reply, or the program refuses to state how they will rank the applicant, the applicant may then feel compelled to change his ROL, only they've already metaphorically popped their #1 rank cherry (sorry for the crude remark). And one thing I have heard from everybody is that it is in poor taste (and judgement) to tell more than one program that you will rank them first.
Sorry for the ramble.
gbwillner, I grappled with this kind of an issue several years ago when I applied. Some programs are very aggressive whereas others play by the rules. I know quite a few people from my class who experienced this and many of them did not tell their #1 program that they were their #1 choice. It didn't hurt them, but that's only speaking for folks at my program.
When I was in your shoes, I posted a lengthy diatribe about this situation which you may find if you search a few years back.
Now that I'm on the other side of it all, I have inquired with people who are in the position of evaluations and who are willing to give me straight answers instead of the company BS line.
At my program, what you tell them will not influence your position on the rank list. Each applicant gets a score from 1 to 5 after each interview and your numerical score decides your position on the rank list. People don't move up or down based on post-interview correspondences. But on the other hand, there are other programs who do not do this and will rank you to match if you tell them they are their #1 choice (and I'm not gonna get started on how perverted and despicable this is cuz I rambled about that a several years ago).
Another interesting tidbit is that program directors/chairs who have known each other for many years and are friends DO talk about applicants. There are a handful of folks that everybody wants and there will be feedback amongst programs.
What are the implications of that? Tell a program that they are #1 at your own risk. If you tell one program that they are #1, word of this verbal "commitment" may leak out and for other programs that rely on post-interview shenanigans to move people up or down the match list, this may hurt you. Hearing that was quite interesting but not unexpected. There were four programs that contacted me quite often. One program contacted me every week. Interestingly, when I did tell my current program that this was the one I wanted to train at, all of the correspondences stopped.
Now, I can't speak for what happened with regards to my positions on those programs' rank lists but that raises the following scenario:
You want to go to program X. X has 5 spots. You are #10 on their list. But they shower their top 20 candidates with a whole lotta love after the interview. You commit to program X by telling them they're #1. The PD of program X tells a bunch of his friends about this.
Programs A, B, and C ask you "what do you think about us?" You say, "I am ranking you highly" which translates to "I'm not ranking you #1." You move down their rank lists...just enough to not match there given that program X has filled by only going down to position 8 on their rank list = you just got F'd in the A.
Many years ago, my friend went through this kind of scenario...we talked about it since my experience at that time mirrored what he went through. He kinda spooked the hell outta me because he told me that he had lied when telling me that his residency program was his first choice. In fact, he had matched at the 7th program on his rank list.
So, be cautious about even telling someone they are #1. And telling multiple programs that they are your #1 can be disasterous and is much worse than not telling anybody "you are my #1".
When programs call you, I would not be hesitant to tell them that you are having a hard time decide between them and the other programs in your top 3. If program #8 calls you, same thing...say you're having a hard time choosing between them and your top 3. If program #10 calls you, same thing. This forces them to tell you the strengths of their program and why you should go there instead of the other places. You may find out inadvertant things about your top 3 programs from these conversations that you didn't know before. With this approach, you benefit the most.