# of interviews to "possibly" gain an admission

[darknightzzz]

Statistics is not like that sadly. If you know a little about probability your chances of acceptance conditional that you have an interview are not independent from one another. In other words if you're a meathead and bomb all your interviews you are the one factor that's connected between all of the schools interviewing you, and they aren't gonna all give you 56%, 47%, and 68% chance of acceptance like flipping a coin or something, they'll probably reject you for bombing it.

I am sorry but in good conscience I cannot let people think they have a 92.5% chance if offered 3 interviews then completely fail to prepare for them properly.
Yes, based on conditional probability you have 92% chance of acceptance BEFORE YOU INTERVIEW.
However, the act of interviewing changes those conditional probabilities. So AFTER YOU INTERVIEW at all 3 schools, you're chance of acceptance IS NOT 92.5%. NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IT IS until you get an INFORMATION UPDATE, in this case, it's a acceptance or rejection letter.

yep, I understand your point thus i make this thread to see what other people think.

yet, some people come in and ask me why I make this thread. smh.

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[studentdental8]

I just voted to see the results, and I thought it was surprising that most people vote 3 interviews. I think at least 4-5+

 

[EasTexan]

I am sorry but in good conscience I cannot let people think they have a 92.5% chance if offered 3 interviews then completely fail to prepare for them properly.
Yes, based on conditional probability you have 92% chance of acceptance BEFORE YOU INTERVIEW.
However, the act of interviewing changes those conditional probabilities. So AFTER YOU INTERVIEW at all 3 schools, you're chance of acceptance IS NOT 92.5%. NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IT IS until you get an INFORMATION UPDATE, in this case, it's a acceptance or rejection letter.

So, for Texas, get three interviews and don't insult the mother of your interviewer and you have a decent shot.

*The numbers don't differentiate between IS and OOS, nor interview ability, etc*

 

[studentdental8]

Hahah I guess I was imprudent in reading the post, mainly just the 92% figure. Dem fine prints always gets ya!

 

[EasTexan]

Hahah I guess I was imprudent in reading the post, mainly just the 92% figure. Dem fine prints always gets ya!

Not a problem and I definitely agree with your post, you can't really put a number on chances when there's a human element involved (interviews).

But, at the end of the day, Texas has roughly 300 seats and they interview roughly ~450 unique applicants (lots of crossover obviously.) So, for Texas, it's safe to say getting 3 interviews greatly increases your chances. Obviously.