Official Pharmacy Investing (Stocks/Funds) Thread!

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Its Z said:
Under an ideal situation, FDA approval of a drug can cause a post approval frenzy. In case of Momenta (MNTA) and their generic Lovenox approval in July 2010, it did exactly that. This approval was Momenta's first drug on the market... which meant the company has arrived. Now, Teva with their 30 drugs already on the market gets a drug approved, it doesn't move the stock much. Look at the peak here....then it settled down. I got in at $5 and got out at $24. So if I'm still holding the stock today, I wouldn't have made as much.

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Now, OPTR is in a similar situation.. Fidaxomicin is their first drug on the market if FDA approves it.
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Wow what a jump from nowhere. I think either way I'll be happy to take the profits after the approval.
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PharmD RPh said:
Wow what a jump from nowhere. I think either way I'll be happy to take the profits after the approval.
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You can take the profit now.. after market OPTR trading was $14+
 
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PharmD RPh said:
You still agree more profits to come right?
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I speculate. We'll know after the Ad Com meeting tomorrow. Wouldn't I like to be a fly on the wall in the meeting room.

I've been wrong before but Fidaxo looks good.
 
Its Z said:
I speculate. We'll know after the Ad Com meeting tomorrow. Wouldn't I like to be a fly on the wall in the meeting room.

I've been wrong before but Fidaxo looks good.
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What time is release tomorrow? Cant seem to find it...

May want to check out CIGX...Ive been in and out of it over the past few weeks and have done well.

I use to trade it mainly as a range bound stock between 1.50-2.00...it recently had a major run up and has some interesting facets contributing to its recent pop.
 
StallionRx said:
What time is release tomorrow? Cant seem to find it...
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We don't have that info. All we have is the FDA Ad Com Briefing (I posted it earlier) and the Ad Com is meeting tomorrow. I hope Ad Com is in a good mood tomorrow.
 
I'll post a link to a live blog by Adam Feurerstein for OPTR's meeting tomorrow. He's The Street's pharm/Bio "journalist" and he does live blogs from FDA panel meetings.

I use quotes around journalist as the guy is very biased with his writings...
 
Ilikechemicals said:
I'll post a link to a live blog by Adam Feurerstein for OPTR's meeting tomorrow. He's The Street's pharm/Bio "journalist" and he does live blogs from FDA panel meetings.

I use quotes around journalist as the guy is very biased with his writings...
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Thanks
 
Ilikechemicals said:
I'll post a link to a live blog by Adam Feurerstein for OPTR's meeting tomorrow. He's The Street's pharm/Bio "journalist" and he does live blogs from FDA panel meetings.

I use quotes around journalist as the guy is very biased with his writings...
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Adam Feurerstein is an idiot....the guy will be in jail once investigators find the money he's getting from stocks he is CLEARLY shorting from his articles.

I'm all for reading as much as possible before investing in a stock but, his articles should be strictly for entertainment purposes, and they aren't for the weak hearted because they can easily talk you into doing something that isn't a smart decision.
 
VCU2011 said:
Adam Feurerstein is an idiot....the guy will be in jail once investigators find the money he's getting from stocks he is CLEARLY shorting from his articles.
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Well, he may be. I don't know. But he's there providing a play by play of the review. And I appreciate that.

I'm all for reading as much as possible before investing in a stock but, his articles should be strictly for entertainment purposes, and they aren't for the weak hearted because they can easily talk you into doing something that isn't a smart decision.
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For us pharmacists, the main decision to pull the trigger should be based on the research you do. Fidaxo vs. Vanco phase III trial was published in NEJM this feb. Also, FDA briefing was very detailed. Typical investment "articles" on the web is nothing more than a summary of another article by someone else.
 
Looking like optr will be suspended for trading today while committee meets. Is this common practice? A stop loss won't do jack now. Assuming everything goes well, sell off Monday?
 
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PharmD RPh said:
Looking like optr will be suspended for trading today while committee meets. Is this common practice?
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Yes

A stop loss won't do jack now. Assuming everything goes well, sell off Monday?
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Stop loss was protection for yesterday and possibly tomorrow. Though if it opens at $6... I rather have it sold near $6 early than manually sell at $2.

Why sell off Monday?
 
Its Z said:
Yes



Stop loss was protection for yesterday and possibly tomorrow. Though if it opens at $6... I rather have it sold near $6 early than manually sell at $2.

Why sell off Monday?
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Sorry Wednesday. Too early to know what day it is.
 
Its Z said:
What I do with pharma stock is not investing.

If you're so sure, why don't you post your Sports Bet predictions right here. How about tonight and tomorrow's games?
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My bracket was 97%tile on Yahoo...and I got the championship team right, UCONN. Though I only got one Final Four team...that's more than 95% of brackets...
 
VCU2011 said:
Adam Feurerstein is an idiot....the guy will be in jail once investigators find the money he's getting from stocks he is CLEARLY shorting from his articles.

I'm all for reading as much as possible before investing in a stock but, his articles should be strictly for entertainment purposes, and they aren't for the weak hearted because they can easily talk you into doing something that isn't a smart decision.
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I agree he is an idiot. But he does provide live blogs from FDA panels...
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
My bracket was 97%tile on Yahoo...and I got the championship team right, UCONN. Though I only got one Final Four team...that's more than 95% of brackets...
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Well Einstein.. maybe you should do sports betting full time.
 
If the panel goes well it will gap up tomorrow. It will probably run up to the FDA date with small pull backs along the way for people taking profit.
 
Ilikechemicals said:
If the panel goes well it will gap up tomorrow. It will probably run up to the FDA date with small pull backs along the way for people taking profit.
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Obviously it should gap up, but I think we might see some fading at the end of the day. I may sell out on the gap up and hopefully buy back during the fading... Just depends on how much of a swing we see. I'll be watching closely tomorrow.
 
Its Z said:
Be nice... he's doing a good play by play..even answered one of my questions.
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I dont knock the guy for answering questions and providing things like the live blogs. But of the little that I have read of his, he is far from impartial and does seem to have an agenda.

I think I spotted you

"vanc has activity against most gram positives, including streps + enterococcus all of which are important components of flora. many think that the VRE "epidemic" is in part related to po vanc use "
 
PharmD RPh said:
Obviously it should gap up, but I think we might see some fading at the end of the day. I may sell out on the gap up and hopefully buy back during the fading... Just depends on how much of a swing we see. I'll be watching closely tomorrow.
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If advisory board gives thumbs up, I won't be doing what you're suggesting. Because you never know when the FDA will stamp it... the due date is May 30 but that doesn't mean it will be on May 30.

You risk not being in the stock when the FDA approves it...if you decide to play around like that.
 
Hey... Adam is not so bad... seems like a cool guy.

:smuggrin:
 
If they dont vote positevly for recurrence this will gap down tomorrow regardless if they positevly vote for FDA approval.

I dont understand why they are so hung up on the terms.

Yeah I like him more now that he posted my "everyone has to take a shot if they mention fecal transplant"
 
I don't think it will gap down.

Recurrence argument seems pretty passive to me...and if that's all they can pick on, then we're in good shape. The data is clear. They're just nit picking about how to define it.

imo.
 
Its Z said:
I don't think it will gap down.

Recurrence argument seems pretty passive to me...and if that's all they can pic on, then we're in good shape. The data is clear. They're just nit picking about how to define it.

imo.
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Agreed.
 
Chit...I gotta go make a site visit but can't get off my desk! Dang it.


:mad:
 
Looks like they got hung up on the terminology for the second vote. Seems like the type of thing that could be resolved before the approval date, though. Interested to see how this swings the rest of the week.
 
The 2nd vote, recurrence rate language will make it to the label one way another. I don't believe it will make much difference at this point. Optimer has arrived and they are going to have a product on the market.

:thumbup:
 
PharmD RPh said:
Optr down 5% in after hours wtf?
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Meh. I wouldn't put too much stock in that, after hours trading seems like it can be all over the place. Expecting (hoping) it makes another 10%+ jump tomorrow.
 
yeah..I bet those are bought by industry people who'll probably get out tomorrow premarket..capitalizing on some folks who's wanting to take in some profit.
 
Down in after hours doesnt mean too much. However, if it does gap down tomorrow this thing will run up as the FDA date gets closer.

The no votes were really yes. They just needed clarification on terminology. The recurrence/global cure/ 30 day resolution cure will make it to the label.

My guess is a run to 15-16 before the FDA date. Not sure what the gap up after approval will be. Probably depends on how much cash optr has to sell this thing.
 
Ilikechemicals said:
Down in after hours doesnt mean too much. However, if it does gap down tomorrow this thing will run up as the FDA date gets closer.

The no votes were really yes. They just needed clarification on terminology. The recurrence/global cure/ 30 day resolution cure will make it to the label.

My guess is a run to 15-16 before the FDA date. Not sure what the gap up after approval will be. Probably depends on how much cash optr has to sell this thing.
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I think Optimer should be worth about a $1B...puts the stock at $21 or so. But $17 to $19 is more realistic. I just want a run up.
 
Buy the rumor, sell the news?

Not trying to throw salt in any wounds here, just surprised to see it gap down despite the news yesterday.
 
StallionRx said:
Buy the rumor, sell the news?

Not trying to throw salt in any wounds here, just surprised to see it gap down despite the news yesterday.
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I think investors were selling off based on the recurrence wording debate. I still think it gets on the indication, it's just a matter of how it's said.
 
My ultra low risk of 18 shares on XNPT paid off! Horizant (gabapentin enacarbil) was shockingly approved today. What's a little rat cancer when you got the jimmy legs?

Picked up some SPPI on the pull back today. They have a date with the FDA for Fusilev (levoleucovorin) injectable on April 29th. I think its got some room to run.

Optr should be good to go for the runup to the FDA date. Quote from OPTR CEO regarding the panel and future talks with FDA:

"There’s no question this is a superior product at 30 days post-treatment,” Lichtinger says. “We’ll engage with FDA on the right language so the superiority can be properly communicated.” He added: “Using the word recurrence to describe its benefit was confusing” to some of the panel members."
 
Hi all,
It seems CVS and Caremark might part ways within the next year due to CVS possibly gaining more market cap? A buddy of mine who also works for the company wants to buy some at the discounted rate of 15%....but if you that you cant sell it for 24 months...I don’t think that is worth it.....since this is the investing forum, I wanted your opinions....

Also what do you guys think of DNDN?
Check out this article:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/262803-why-provenge-could-be-a-10-billion-drug-for-dendreon

I wonder if you can get 340B pricing for provenge.....
 
Last edited:
This thread will be relevant to my interests very soon, after I start making pharmacist pay, get all my accounts in order, start paying back my loans...

Nevermind, it might not be relevant to my interests for a while. Carry on.
 
BanBidil said:
Hi all,
It seems CVS and Caremark might part ways within the next year due to CVS possibly gaining more market cap? A buddy of mine who also works for the company wants to buy some at the discounted rate of 15%....but if you that you cant sell it for 24 months...I don't think that is worth it.....since this is the investing forum, I wanted your opinions....

Also what do you guys think of DNDN?
Check out this article:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/262803-why-provenge-could-be-a-10-billion-drug-for-dendreon

I wonder if you can get 340B pricing for provenge.....
Click to expand...

I would prob buy cvs at a 15% discount even if he has to hold for 2 years. That would be discounted to $28 per share which is close to a 52 week low. Analyst estimates are around $38 per share target. Debt is fairly high and if cvs split from caremark I think stock could push higher or lower depending on how the split goes down. Retail sales and margins seem to keep improving so I think now would be a good entry point. Plus if he holds longer than one year that's less capital gains tax.

Dndn seems like a good buy at the moment. Target is $58 and they got some good news on their prostate cancer med being covered by Medicare. I wouldn't put a ton of money in this stock though as it seems to be highly volatile and carries a little more than average risk.

Personally I just bought back into optr. Their drug is expect to be FDA approved come may and I think it will get a good jolt from 12.39 right now up to about 15-16 per share.
 
Looks like OPTR's approval date is approaching. Maybe 5/27 or 5/31. Anyone else in?
 
SCCpharm said:
Looks like OPTR's approval date is approaching. Maybe 5/27 or 5/31. Anyone else in?
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Pretty high probability of approval, so im taking a pretty big bet on it with June $15 calls. Looking for a spike to 17 or 18 on approval. PDUFA date I believe is the 30th, but the market is closed so we wont be able to do anything until the 31st
 
Anyone thinking of playing the MNKD conference call in a few days? There's a lot of speculation of a buyout which should drive up the price for the next few days. Was thinking of getting some calls leading up to it (may have already missed this opportunity though..premiums are already really high), then flipping to puts right after the CC seeing as how there is NO reason this stock should still be above 4
 
fidaxo approved...stock drops.
 
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