Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

[cyanide12345678]

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@cyanide12345678

Excellent post about your put-selling strategy. I study a bit from good futures / options traders and they're very intelligent people -- very mathematically inclined. Personally, it's not my cup of tea as it's horrendously tax inefficient.

Why do you keep rolling contracts every 2 weeks? Why do you try to avoid having ITM or ATM contracts?



You are understating the risk of selling naked puts when you try to frame it nominally. You lost 200% of premium when the stock owner lost 10%. You are reducing risk because of good position sizing. It would be a good idea to go into that so someone whom decides to copy you won't blow up their account.



Essentially there will be larger supply of $. Why will increased supply of $ result in low-ish return of relative scarce asset? FYI, you should be hoping stocks go up. Because as a put seller of stocks, your profit increases if the underlying stock increases. Sure, you're also making money from theta decay but that also applies if you sell puts in non-stock assets.



It's unlikely US stock market will be like Japanese stock market. What happened to the Japanese was due to Plaza Accord. US is stronger country than Japan and can make Japan commit seppuku to boost US economy. No country can do to US what US did to Japan. Power imbalances between countries exist and there is a reason that US stocks outperformed non-US stocks for a long time. Some die-hard indexers are still waiting for when international stocks starting outperforming. Lol.

Yes very tax inefficient if you’re in a high tax bracket. But if you trade spx, ndx, xsp, rut then you are very tax efficient as even a 1 minute hold will have 60 percent of profits treated like long term capital gains

I don’t roll every two weeks. I’m giving hypothetical scenarios of an arbitrary amount of time to explain a point. I roll when I’ve achieved 35-50 percent of the profit. But in my example i had to show defined outcomes in a defined set of time.

I only stay significantly out of the money due to leverage. Premiums can go sky high if in the money. I avoid that. I have happily just dropped strikes, dropped my eventual return, for the sake of decreased risk and staying significantly out of the money. Even if i get in the money, it’s usually fine, but i almost exclusively do that when something is ridiculously under valued and i see a bottom nearby. In fact, even today i did a trade where i just dropped strike, decreased eventual return by 3k. Which is fine. Id rather get 30k return than 33k return if its more likely to happen.

My de-risking trade today as an example:

Agreed - position sizing is one of the most important things when doing naked positions. A lot of people do credit spreads - often times they easily over leverage a credit spread and can wipe out an account. I didn’t understand position sizing initially and i was selling 17-18 rut contracts in a 200k account and making 15-20k a month when i started - the market was moving my way. If the market had moved against me - i would have gotten destroyed. Now with a 4 times larger account, i barely have the guts to open 17-18 rut contracts - too big a position.

Im usually aiming for 1.5 to 2 percent cash on cash return per month (~15k a month based on 700k account size). So my 2 month out puts will basically carry 30k in premium. I maintain something similar, if I’m winning and my possible premium gain drops too much, i increase risk to add premium. If I’m losing and my possible premium has increased significantly, it is not unusual for me to drop risk and decrease total premium for a smoother ride. All in all, 15k premium per month is 2 percent of my account. A 300 percent loss this would still only be a 6 percent loss for the account. To get a 300 percent loss, the underlying will have to drop very very significantly in a very very short time.

Yes, i make money if stocks go up. That’s the easy part of selling puts - everything is going wonderfully as planned. But really the beauty of selling far out of the money puts is when you make money even when something drops.

I understand it’s unlikely to be the next japan stock market - but it’s not as unlikely to have a flat decade given the frothy valuations and deteriorating macroeconomics for the country. That was just a point i was making that even in a japan like event, most likely the put seller comes out ahead. Again - decades of research backing that up. Some of it i linked in my post above.

 

[skougess]

just because there’s someone else on the other end creating a bet, you keep on thinking it’s a zero sum game.

Just like a casino, the odds are always going to favor the put seller.

The buyer of the put and call has to get right both price movements as well as the timing of the price movement. The seller just has to get right price movement.

Price movement upwards makes put sellers money significantly faster, they still make money when the underlying is flat, and if it’s something significantly out of the money, then even a slow negative price movement makes the put seller money. 3 scenarios in which the pot seller makes money. The put buyer only and only makes money if price drops rapidly and within a short time frame.

It’s not a zero sum game. I’m not the one saying that actually. Years and years of research says that PUT SELLING OFFERS THE BEST RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS. Buying sp500 offers the best absolute return, but selling puts offers the best risk adjusted return since the sharpe ratio and standard deviation of those returns is lower.

Again….. I’m not saying that, research spanning decades says that:

https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/spx/bondarenko-oleg-putwrite-putw-2019.pdf

Generating Income and Managing Risk: Cash-Secured Put Writing in a Low Equity Return Environment

www.cboe.com

https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/education/research_publications/research-paper.pdf

https://www.nasdaq.com/docs/2019/12/17/NDX%20Strategies%20paper%20Nov%2028%20-%20Global%20Finesse.pdf

http://www.riverparkfunds.com/assets/pdfs/news/Structural_Alpha_White_Paper_Final.pdf

Again - selling puts is not zero sum. Years of data disagrees with you.

I actually don’t think you understand the definition of zero sum, and I don’t know how else to say that without sounding very condescending.

Aside from that, you can talk about casinos and pretend you are playing the odds like an insurance company. But at the end of the day you, as an individual, do not have the capital or transaction volume to reliably play that game (even insurance companies need reinsurance!!). Your wins have been from the ongoing bull run and the risk management strategies you’ve employed (like betting on 31 numbers in roulette). Okay sure, the 00 is in your favor with the risk premium. It’s STILL a zero sum game, fundamentally different than an investment, and you as an individual are not running this transaction at a rate that makes anything more than a gamble.

Even with this, you’ll still PROBABLY get away with this for a long time, or even for as long as you decide to do this. But it doesn’t change the fundamentals of what you are doing. It doesn’t make it any less of an unsound strategy for this forum making $300k+ yearly where wealth is all but guaranteed.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I actually don’t think you understand the definition of zero sum, and I don’t know how else to say that without sounding very condescending.

Aside from that, you can talk about casinos and pretend you are playing the odds like an insurance company. But at the end of the day you, as an individual, do not have the capital or transaction volume to reliably play that game. Your wins have been from the ongoing bull run and the risk management strategies you’ve employed (like betting on 31 numbers in roulette). Okay sure, the 00 is in your favor with the risk premium. It’s STILL a zero sum game, fundamentally different than an investment, and you as an individual are not running this transaction at a rate that makes anything more than a gamble.

I might not understand it. But read this below and answer one question only for me:

https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/spx/bondarenko-oleg-putwrite-putw-2019.pdf

My question is: How is something like selling puts on SP500, a zero sum in your opinion, result in a 9.5% compound return over a 35 year time period? That's all I need you to answer. The last I checked, gambling didn't have a reliable return over decades, and that too at a lower volatility and standard deviation.

I'm not saying owning stocks doesn't create wealth. It does in a up market through appreciation, and in a flat market through dividends. But, I'm saying that that is not the only way of creating wealth as there are option strategies that exist that also create reliable return over time in a excellent risk adjusted manner.

 

[skougess]

I might not understand it. But read this below and answer one question only for me:

https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/spx/bondarenko-oleg-putwrite-putw-2019.pdf

My question is: How is something like selling puts on SP500, a zero sum in your opinion, result in a 9.5% compound return over a 35 year time period? That's all I need you to answer. The last I checked, gambling didn't have a reliable return over decades, and that too at a lower volatility and standard deviation.

I'm not saying owning stocks doesn't create wealth. It does in a up market through appreciation, and in a flat market through dividends. But, I'm saying that that is not the only way of creating wealth as there are option strategies that exist that also create reliable return over time in a excellent risk adjusted manner.

Zero sum means that the “winners” and “losers” add up to $0. It doesn’t necessarily mean 50/50 odds. Wealth is only transferred from one hand to another, not created in a zero-sum environment. As options were originally conceived, they were not zero-sum. They were closer to insurance products, where someone needs a hedge against price movement. In these cases, there is value in the hedge that the contract provides. In the same way that we don’t feel bamboozled or that we “lost” when we buy disability insurance for 15 years and don’t end up using it. It’s subtle, but as option contracts are commonly bought and sold today, the only value is in the speculation and money earned. In this way it transitions into zero-sum territory, because the holder of a “losing” contract got no value out of holding the contract for its own sake.

I concede that with premiums delivered, there is a house edge. So my previous analogy of the long term rate of return being 0% was incorrect, since it is not a 50/50 gamble. The biggest issue I have is what I previously posted, that you as an individual are not a financial bohemouth that can absorb capital losses or have the transaction volume to make this reliable income. What you see as reliable income is a mirage of your risk management strategies and the bull market.

My secondary issue would be that with all the work you put into this, what kind of hourly rate are you getting? I know this doesn’t apply to you specifically since you enjoy getting into it, but you have to admit that there should be some kind of return adjustment for labor cost. But mostly it’s the first part.

Edit: I would just again point out that something can generate returns and make individuals wealthy without being a wealth creator. Wealth is not created with options with the exception of the first case I alluded to earlier in this post (where both parties “win” because they are both happy with the transaction). Wealth is just transferred.

 

[GatorCHOMPions]

As someone who has flirted with jumping into this stuff, I am thoroughly enjoying the back and forth. It sure beats the typical EM doom and gloom.

 

[skougess]

As someone who has flirted with jumping into this stuff, I am thoroughly enjoying the back and forth. It sure beats the typical EM doom and gloom.

I hope cyanide realizes that as heated as I get, I think he/she is not the type of person to get themselves into the poor house. They will likely continue to be wealthy and thriving no matter the twists and turns. Strong opinions are just strong.

 

[Mount Asclepius]

I also appreciate the back and forth arguments. Thank you both. Even if not for me, I like to hear what others are doing and why others think it’s either a good or bad strategy.

Sometimes people get caught up in the weeds of a slightly better return. Not pointing fingers at any one here, but more so commenting in general. I’ve certainly known more people in real life than even on SDN who are looking for a pot of gold. The best path for EPs to become high net wealth individuals is to maximize what you can make during your peak earning years, work for as long as tolerable without wasting any extra time in the pit than necessary, save aggressively, and in general invest allowing for the time value of money to build wealth.

A colleague of mine once got a little bent out of shape about certain 401K fees, but made far less per hour and in annual income. While I agree low fees are important, they missed the bigger picture in that the amount of income they were missing out on per clinical hour far outweighed small savings in retirement account fees.

In the same vein, people can debate the risks/benefits of trading options, but at the end of the day peak earning potential multiplied by years worked, aggressive saving, and just investing early in general, will have far great impact. Some might do well with their own specific investing interest (i.e. options), but I don’t think it’s easy, as guaranteed or as low risk as some make it sound, or broadly applicable to others.

For me personally, seeing and billing more ankle sprains then saving/investing that income will add more to my bottom line over time than any marginal benefit I can try to obtain by outperforming the S&P 500. I think the effort and risk are lower. The calculus may be different for others though.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Zero sum means that the “winners” and “losers” add up to $0. It doesn’t necessarily mean 50/50 odds. Wealth is only transferred from one hand to another, not created in a zero-sum environment. As options were originally conceived, they were not zero-sum. They were closer to insurance products, where someone needs a hedge against price movement. In these cases, there is value in the hedge that the contract provides. In the same way that we don’t feel bamboozled or that we “lost” when we buy disability insurance for 15 years and don’t end up using it. It’s subtle, but as option contracts are commonly bought and sold today, the only value is in the speculation and money earned. In this way it transitions into zero-sum territory, because the holder of a “losing” contract got no value out of holding the contract for its own sake.

I concede that with premiums delivered, there is a house edge. So my previous analogy of the long term rate of return being 0% was incorrect, since it is not a 50/50 gamble. The biggest issue I have is what I previously posted, that you as an individual are not a financial bohemouth that can absorb capital losses or have the transaction volume to make this reliable income. What you see as reliable income is a mirage of your risk management strategies and the bull market.

My secondary issue would be that with all the work you put into this, what kind of hourly rate are you getting? I know this doesn’t apply to you specifically since you enjoy getting into it, but you have to admit that there should be some kind of return adjustment for labor cost. But mostly it’s the first part.

Edit: I would just again point out that something can generate returns and make individuals wealthy without being a wealth creator. Wealth is not created with options with the exception of the first case I alluded to earlier in this post (where both parties “win” because they are both happy with the transaction). Wealth is just transferred.

I agree winners and losers adds up to 0 in options. In that regard it is zero sum. But im glad you agree that it’s not 50/50 - because clearly there’s a better long term strategy. All the data clearly shows that premium sellers almost always come out ahead over time. I’m glad you concede that selling premium is not gambling. It is at the end of the day a risk adjusted way of getting positive returns. Now those returns are coming at the expense of someone’s loss - i agree - whether a speculative person buying a put or a hedge fund hedging their bets and buying insurance, or maybe a degenerate/****** off wallstreetbets going all in on something. Who knows who I’m more or less taking money from 🤣 but yeah…my 205k gain last year was 205k of loss for someone. Like a casino, I have a probabilistic edge of winning.

My strategy of selling puts has historical data showing that it’s a fairly decent return, while lower risk. Truly one of the best risk adjusted returns out there.

Now what i do is add risk to a low risk strategy and increase returns.

I add risk in 2 ways:

1) naked leveraged positions. So a big number of positions compared to the amount of cash in my account
2) trade more volatile things - arkk, ewz, mpw etc.

I decrease risk by the following ways:

1) very very far out of the money puts. The leverage actually lets me push the strike price so so so far away that they truly are very unlikely events, but because of leverage i still am able to have a large enough position size to have meaningful return.

2) i do not hesitate to drop strikes, even if it means lower return. I watch my position delta very closely - delta for a position is the premium change if the stock value changed by $1.

See attached:

My ewz position if it drops $1 which is a 3% drop for ewz will result in a $4500 increase in premium aka unrealized loss for me assuming fixed gamma (rate of change of delta) and vega (volatility). Though normally both those increase too usually but regardless a 3% drop in ewz tomorrow will result in my having an unrealized loss of $4500 minus $200 (theta) = $4300. So - 3% drop = 0.6% drop for my account (4300/7000000). This is how i gauge my risk. If this number starts getting decently big, then it’s time to drop strike to decrease the delta of the position.

Similarly, if mpw drops $1 which is a 18-19 percent drop, then my account drops by 2% 14k.

So yes, I’m leveraged, but there’s definitely still a lot of downside protection from being so far out of the money. In fact, mpw did go down 20% in 3 days - it touched 6.4 3 days ago before collapsing down to 5.1 ish. I lost only 1 percent of account value around 8k despite a 20 percent drop in underlying.

So….. that’s my risk right there. If mpw drops 20 percent tomorrow, I’ll lose 2 percent account value even though i have a position that’s worth $450k if it was a cash covered position.

let’s talk about transactions:

Man…. It is so so so much harder having a larger account from a standpoint of transactional efficiency. When you have very large positions, you literally start moving markets. You’d be surprised how much transactional inefficiency is with making larger trades actually. As you said, there needs to be someone else on the other side, often times that means when you have a very large order, you are not getting the best price possible to be able to execute that large order.

My Trade sizes with leverage actually are surprisingly large now that even im starting to see a little bit of inefficiency in pricing. It’s actually very interesting to see that if i sell/buy to close 1 contract, I’ll usually get immediate fill at a certain price. But sometimes if i do the same trade with 100+ contracts immediately for the exact same price, it wouldn’t fill - instead id literally change the entire bid ask spread -_- it is so so much easier to have a smaller account.

Liquidity though i agree, i will never have as much as the big guys. But you actually don’t need new money. You can create liquidity and buying power through trades themselves - you can always close profitable positions. You can drop strike (decreases capital requirements). So there’s usually rarely a desperate need for more capital. For example - i can close my entire ewz position and create 200k buying power that’s fully liquid within 2 minutes. The cost would be about 7-8k less profit. So instead of potentially gaining 30k in 63 days, I’ll drop my potential profit to 22-23k.

And i don’t think i have a mirage of profitability due to a bull run - on the contrary, my positions are often falling knives because those have the best volatility. Here is what I’ve made money on this year:

Yes, mpw has had a bull run that has helped. Agreed. But i currently have a position with 18k of premium. I don’t need a bull run - i just need it to not drop 41% in 63 days 😂😂 given how there’s no earnings between then and now, how the technicals are improving, how the price would have to go through multiple supports and multiple moving averages to get back to all time lows, and that too in 2 months, i feel pretty good about this position - hence 1500 contracts.

My second biggest winner is arkk - it’s down ytd 11%. Im up on it. There’s no bull run there.

My 4th biggest winner is SQ - ytd negative 0.6 percent. No bull run.

5th biggest winner - sofi. Down 22 percent ytd. No bull run.

7th biggest winner - kbe. Just up 3 percent. Mostly flat

8th biggest winner - tan. Down 16 percent yt

9th biggest winner - Save down 76 percent ytd

11th biggest winner is ewz which is down 7 percent ytd

So….am i really riding a bull wave? I did for my biggest winner this year. But man i made money on a lot of ‘losers’ too.

Here are my losers this year:

Mostly positions that were started and i didn’t follow through with and were closed pretty quickly. Upwk was the only real loss where price kept coming down and i didn’t have maneuverability due to limited strike prices ( $10 then $7.5 ) and it had terrible bid ask spreads that were painful as hell. So i eventually folded.

A lot of the trades were hard earned money - no bull run.

Lastly your point about time - yeah i spend a lot of it. Here’s my hourly so far:

I think i average about 2.5 hours of market watching/trading a day. There’s been 80 trading days so far year to date. I have 90k ytd gain after 200 hours of active trading. About 450/hr. This wouldn’t include times reading articles etc - this is time purely spent making trades and watching price movement. But realistically so far this year, I’m beating spy by only 1.5 percent. So $10000 extra return vs a spy only portfolio. So i guess technically speaking, if you subtract the performance of spy from my return, it comes to $50/hr (10000/200). This also doesn’t take into account the net extra 17 percent tax I’ll pay for short term capital gains - 37 percent marginal tax rate vs 20 percent long term capital gains tax rate. So probably just barely breaking even right now if you account for the added taxes.

But…it’s actually incredibly hard to beat spy when there’s a huge bull run. As a put seller, my upside is capped, my downside is protected. The biggest downside to selling puts is underperformance in a bull run. I do this however because of bear markets, i know i will outperform during a bear market. For example - i ended 2022 (or was it 2021?) positive 7-8 percent when spy was negative 20 percent. I’m happy keeping up with spy when it has one of the biggest bull run starts in history because chances are I’ll be outperforming when the market is flat or underperforming.

And that’s why i do puts.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Respectfully, is investing in a stock not also a zero sum game? Is there not a winner and a loser when your invested position is being shorted out by your brokerage? The risk is just less to buy the stock. As you hold an ETF or the SP500 for longer, your chance of profit increases tremendously. As my options date extends later and later, my chance of profit also increases. I think its all risk. Small businesses can flounder in a bad high interest rate economy. Your entire investment could go to 0 if you pick the wrong small business. Real estate is 'due for a crash'. I've thought about buying a property and renting it out. But do I really want to deal with another client while I'm at home when we do that for work 120-140 hours per month? Your view is similar to a lot of people and I see that side. Fortunately with our careers in ER we are allowed to increase our risk past some whom may not have a higher income. This was just out and Im sticking with it! 🙂

Are you buying puts again for round 2 for an eventual gme collapse ?

 

[Splenda88]

Are you buying puts again for round 2 for an eventual gme collapse ?

I think they will find a way to lock up roaring kitty.

Massachusetts regulator probes 'Roaring Kitty's' GameStop trades

The Massachusetts securities regulator is probing the trading activities of GameStop investor Keith Gill, who gained notoriety as stocks influencer "Roaring Kitty" during the 2021 meme stock frenzy. Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin, the state's top securities regulator, is looking...

finance.yahoo.com

GME is primed to open at > $60 tomorrow and will likely get to $75-80

x.com

x.com

 

[cyanide12345678]

I think they will find a way to lock up roaring kitty.

Massachusetts regulator probes 'Roaring Kitty's' GameStop trades

The Massachusetts securities regulator is probing the trading activities of GameStop investor Keith Gill, who gained notoriety as stocks influencer "Roaring Kitty" during the 2021 meme stock frenzy. Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin, the state's top securities regulator, is looking...

finance.yahoo.com

GME is primed to open at > $60 tomorrow and will likely get to $75-80

x.com

x.com

Gill has the social media power to make any stock go up 50-100 percent. All he has to do is talk about it on his youtube and boom 😂 lucky guy.

 

[valianteffort]

Are you buying puts again for round 2 for an eventual gme collapse ?

What a disaster move by GME. I wouldn’t even be upset if Keith Gill dumped all his calls. He was on track to be worth 1 billion dollars until management dropped ‘earnings’ unexpectedly and a 1 billion offering.

I didn’t partake this time. I think Gill’s 300 million dollar position was on track to have GME hit 100 until this move by management.

 

[cyanide12345678]

What a disaster move by GME. I wouldn’t even be upset if Keith Gill dumped all his calls. He was on track to be worth 1 billion dollars until management dropped ‘earnings’ unexpectedly and a 1 billion offering.

I didn’t partake this time. I think Gill’s 300 million dollar position was on track to have GME hit 100 until this move by management.

it might still go up after the 12 pm youtube live today. Who knows.

I’m sitting on the sidelines just watching with envy 😂

 

[Tenk]

 

[TooMuchResearch]

You know what I did when GME dropped during the stream today (I didn't watch it)?
I hit the buy button.
Gill... actually believes in GameStop being able to turn it around?
Don't care.
Probability of success here (i.e. number go up) unclear especially without govt stimmies and people locked up at home with nothing to do but gamble and stick it to the man.
Maybe I'm getting old and bored.
Or maybe I'm onto something.
(It's the first one.)

 

[valianteffort]

I suspect you will have an opportunity to sell for profit. It just depends if you will take it or diamond hands it for the possibility of more. I think downside risk has now flipped to higher than upside after the dilution and earnings report.

 

[JacobMcCandles]

I hadn’t seen any of his videos prior to this one but I did go back and watch parts of others. He’s definitely on some substances in his most recent one.

 

[TooMuchResearch]

He drinks openly in the videos.

 

[TooMuchResearch]

So I read this entire post, and all I can say is "this might be crazy enough to work"

 

[TooMuchResearch]

I'm just going to dump the post here:

I will completely explain the Kansas City Shuffle, because the inciting Incident, the Catalyst was executed on Friday for $GME.

I am the Meme-translator and for people asking, where in Roaring Kittys Memes we are on the timeline, Friday 07.06.24 was this meme:

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How?
Well on Friday Roaring Kitty did his livestream as we all know.
He was on Screen and did actually play a game with the shorts.
And when everyone was watching closely he did something brilliant:


So what happened here?
The Stock was halted basically during the whole live-stream and basically reacted to what Kitty said on screen.

THAT IS MARKET MANIPULATION BY THE DTCC!

Now if you read the latest disclosures by gamestop, you will have read that Gamestop reserves the right to pull all shares out of the DTCC if Gamestop thinks that the DTCC manipulates the trade of gamestop shares.

A Kansas City shuffle has person 1 make person 2 think a certain scheme A is at work to **** them over, making them do something to guard against this scheme A, but the Kansas City Shuffle is person 1 relying on person 2 to do a certain thing to guard against scheme A, while person 1 is actually doing scheme B.
Scheme B would only work if Person 2 does a certain thing to guard against scheme A.

Person 1 is everyone on the side of Gamestop, mainly Roaring Kitty and R.C.(Gamestop).

Person 2 is every marketmanipulator, including the DTCC.

Scheme 1 is Roaring Kitty doing a livestream during which he does something that ****s over shorts (or so they think).

Person 2 guards against that scheme 1 by illegally halting the stock.

Scheme 2 is R.C.(Gamestop) pulling out the shares from the DTCC because the DTCC did market manipulation.

Now lets explain the Meme:
We see the SAW Puppet on the Screen like "Do you want to play a game".
That stands for the livestream and Roaring Kitty in it.
Then we see the duplicated hats from "The Prestige" (A film about magicians), basically standing in for the massive short position.
A voice says "Are you watching closely", which is a phrase a magician uses when doing a trick/misdirect.
The trick/misdirect is doing the stream.
Now how did everyone, especially the short-friendly-media react to the stream?
Watch the CNBC-Clip interviewing Andrew Left after the stream.

Basically everyone was like: "That was it???"
Was this the Kansas City Shuffle???
Just like in the clip after from "Lucky number slevin",
The guy asking the question stands in for the media and everyone else related to the shorts, asking "That was it???"
To which Bruce Willis answers:
"No. It's just the inciting Incident"
The Inciting incident is Roaring Kitty showing DTCC Stock manipulation.
The Catalyst.
What is a Catalyst? Basically something that is necessary to start a reaction.
Then we see the empty chairs.
While you could say "Oh, empty chairs, is that like empty shares, like shares created through rehypothication?"
Maybe.
I think its the shares leaving the DTCC.
And then follows a hip-hop video excerp
"I made you look", which is a play on the moment during the stream, when he says "look look" when the dtcc halts and then lets go of the halt when he ends the stream and then halts again.
Is it important that it halts on his voice command, like mentioned in the linked article?
No!
It is important that they illegally halted during the livestream for no reason, except that there was this livestream.
THAT is the Guard against scheme 1 in the Kansas City Shuffle.

Was that it? Meme over?
NOPE!

Look at the Thumbnail for the Stream.
Ozymandias from watchman on the frame where he basically says "I already did the scheme 35 Minutes ago."
Guess what.
When he set the time of the livestream, GME was halted.
But he was starting the livestream "late", so they at some point resumed trading and then, when the livestream started for real, they started halting again.
They did the manipulation/guard when he set the time to begin the livestream.
It was already over when the livestream started, the livestream just had to rub it in.

Look at the Thumbnail for the Stream again:
R.C. as Dr. Manhattan from watchman.
Dr. Manhattan is an important part of Ozymandias' Scheme in watchmen and he is all powerfull and can explode people.
He also has his dick hanging out the whole time, which is the most important aspect of the whole sheme, because R.C. having his dick out the whole time stands for R.C./Gamestop mentioning in their 8k or whereever, that they WILL pull the shares out of the DTCC if they think that there is anything fishy going on.
Basically the whole Scheme and my interpretation hangs on this detail of R.C. having his shlong hanging out in the open.

Look again at the Thumbnail for the stream in the bottom right corner.
There is the hand, ready to tip over the first domino (from the film V for Vendetta).
THIS IS WHAT THIS STREAM WAS, THE FIRST DOMINO, THE CATALYST!

Look at the left side of the Thumbnail:
It depicts stuff from the Game of Thrones Scene where the big green explosion was started and depicts the moment just before.

And at the bottom is the guy that saw a scheme and pointed a scheme out as being "very interesting", but not completely being able to put a finger on it, what exactly the scheme/Plan was.
(Its a sports guy that saw a team trading their most valuable players in a team and he was hinting at there being a plan in place and that one needs to watch what they where doing.
What they were doing was rebuilding the whole team from scratch, which necessated leting perceived high value players go, as they where expensive, to have the cash to do it.->Just like R.C. had to sell some shares for gamestop to get a couple of billion which are probably necessary as a cash reserve though I have several ideas why they would be necessary so I am not sure which it is.)

All of this is happening, while the Cat is on the microphone with everyone around him going crazy and hanging on its every word.
Which is Roaring Kitty doing the stream while all the other stuff mentioned is happening in the Background.

So when Scheme 2 of the Kansas City Shuffle?
Part 2 will be executed by R.C./Gamestop.
Timing is irrelevant, but my money literally is on Tuesday or Thursday next week (11th /13th of June).
Bad news first (Earnings Data - already out)
Good news on time (Pull out of DTCC - during quaterly report or investor meeting)

What do you guys think??

This is how I read that Meme.
Could all be wrong.
We will see next week!

ON A RELATED NOTE:
I will have to do my reading of all his other memes again.
With new information coming to light I need to do another reading, because now I know EXACTLY what Roaring Kitty means with all the memes.
I plan on doing it this weekend, but my time is very limited so I am not 100% if I can make it.
I will try though, but this post here was more important I think.

Everything is clear now and there is nothing shorts can do to stop the Kansas City Shuffle, because they already played into it.

 

[Tenk]

He exercised and has the same number of shares RC had 3 years ago.

Gonna be a wild ride. Buckle up.

 

[Splenda88]

Has anyone heard of YieldMax ETFs?

Our ETFs – YieldMax ETFs

www.yieldmaxetfs.com

 

[cyanide12345678]

Has anyone heard of YieldMax ETFs?

Our ETFs – YieldMax ETFs

www.yieldmaxetfs.com

Tsly is probably their most popular fund with decent volume.

They are basically doing what I do - sell premium. Except they probably do it at the money, so they probably get a lot of theta decay

 

[Splenda88]

Tsly is probably their most popular fund with decent volume.

They are basically doing what I do - sell premium. Except they probably do it at the money, so they probably get a lot of theta decay

One of my co-workers told me today he has been getting 7-8k/month return on a 150k investment with NVDY. That is impossible or too good to be true. What is the downside of buying these fund? I am not a big fan of option trading--too complicated IMO.

 

[cyanide12345678]

One of my co-workers told me today he has been getting 7-8k/month return on a 150k investment with NVDY. That is impossible or too good to be true. What is the downside of buying these fund? I am not a big fan of option trading--too complicated IMO.

Education – YieldMax ETFs

www.yieldmaxetfs.com

Let’s say it’s a covered call fund you pick. The biggest downside is you don’t fully participate in the upside of the stock.

The next biggest downside is that you are investing in a highly volatile single asset, if a big downturn happens, while you lose less than owning the stock outright, but you can still lose a decent chunk.

Also, the stock price usually will decay with such a high yield.

This is the same concept as jepi or jepq - jepq gives a 12 percent yield. These give a much much higher yield because these are trading literally some of the most volatile stocks out there.

But yeah…if yields is what you want, selling premium is a great way to do it. I mean…thats all i do.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Let’s say you buy 100 shares of tesla.

Current share price $178.

So $17800 price of 100 shares.

Now you sell a 33 days to expiration at the money call for $180 strike. See attached order for what that would look like.

You get $980. So that’s 980/17800 - 5.5% premium in 33 days. Rinse and repeat and keep repeating.

The downside: if tsla goes to $3000 tomorrow like crazy cathy woods says 😂😂😂😂 then your gain is $980, instead of $282000 gain.

Also, if tsla falls, you still participate in the downside. A highly volatile stock like tsla may be $130 tomorrow, so you could still lose quite a bit (despite the cushion the premium provides)

Though, i personally might buy their pypl and square funds. I do think they are both undervalued currently, in fact i have naked puts open on both right now. But on paper their 0 leverage positions might be less risk than mine.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Also remember a covered call strategy severely underperforms if it’s a V shaped recovery after a drop.

A quick and very large drop like the one we had with covid - stocks falling 30 percent in 1 month. You might still see 25 percent of that loss assuming you got 5 percent of premium in that month. Now let’s say the next month the stock goes back up 40 ish percent to go back to where it started - then the covered call options holder just gained 5 percent that month since gains are capped while the other is back to where it started. So completely missing out on the massive gains and recovery.

A slow drop or a slow upward trend or a flat market, the options sellers will run laps around the stock holders

 

[cyanide12345678]

One of my co-workers told me today he has been getting 7-8k/month return on a 150k investment with NVDY. That is impossible or too good to be true. What is the downside of buying these fund? I am not a big fan of option trading--too complicated IMO.

if you want to just play the premium game and don’t mind holding something so ridiculously volatile, then you could literally sell 1 week contracts at the money.

Sell to open on Monday. Close/expire on Friday.

Let’s take tsla as an example:

You buy 100 shares. $17800

You sell a covered call for $180 strike for Friday expiration this week.

You get $300 premium.

$300/17800 ~ 1.7 percent premium - doesn’t take into account loss or gain from holding the position itself but just looking at the premium.

Rinse and repeat 52 times. 88 percent premium.

 

[Splenda88]

if you want to just play the premium game and don’t mind holding something so ridiculously volatile, then you could literally sell 1 week contracts at the money.

Sell to open on Monday. Close/expire on Friday.

Let’s take tsla as an example:

You buy 100 shares. $17800

You sell a covered call for $180 strike for Friday expiration this week.

You get $300 premium.

$300/17800 ~ 1.7 percent premium - doesn’t take into account loss or gain from holding the position itself but just looking at the premium.

Rinse and repeat 52 times. 88 percent premium.

I would not mind investing 150k to get a return of 7-8k/month if I know the chance of losing it all is very slim. 7-8k/month is a freaking huge return.

Do you get that much return playing that game?

 

[cyanide12345678]

I would not mind investing 150k to get a return of 7-8k/month if I know the chance of losing it all is very slim. 7-8k/month is a freaking huge return.

Do you get that much return playing that game?

You can get 5% monthly premium playing at the money positions in highly volatile stocks/etfs.

Whether that is your actual return is extremely unlikely.

A cash covered calls etf will usually decay in price over time. So the price of the underlying will keep dropping, but it will keep spinning off high dividends/premium.

While your premium is high, there’s usually a decay in price. Your net return is the difference between the two.

When you play at the money calls and sell premium, you make money through premium only. That’s your upside. It’s fixed and capped. Any time the stock goes super high, there is no increase in equity value because your gain is capped. Any time stock is down however, you still participate in equity decreasing. As long as loss of equity is less than the premium, you’re making money. But this is how these etfs usually have equity decay while receiving large dividends - because those dividends really are the only gain you get, while you participate in the equity downside with the underlying decreasing.

So…. You get 5 percent premium per month. But you don’t get 5 percent return. Especially if the stock goes down.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Options play of the day:

Starter position: sold 30 naked put options for dxcm (dexcom) - $40 strike, January 25 expiration.

Received $2686 in premium, $20000 used in buying power. 13 percent cash on cash return in 5-6 months. 37 percent downside protection.

$40 strike will be a trailing P/E ratio of 26 for what would be considered a growth company and growing market.

The assumption is that todays sell off is over blown - decreased revenue forecast of 6% shouldn’t necessarily result in a 40 percent price drop theoretically. So once the selling calms down, the gap will fill up, and assuming that happens, it should be a even better return.

Will build position size if it keeps dropping.

 

[valianteffort]

Options play of the day:

Starter position: sold 30 naked put options for dxcm (dexcom) - $40 strike, January 25 expiration.

Received $2686 in premium, $20000 used in buying power. 13 percent cash on cash return in 5-6 months. 37 percent downside protection.

$40 strike will be a trailing P/E ratio of 26 for what would be considered a growth company and growing market.

The assumption is that todays sell off is over blown - decreased revenue forecast of 6% shouldn’t necessarily result in a 40 percent price drop theoretically. So once the selling calms down, the gap will fill up, and assuming that happens, it should be a even better return.

Will build position size if it keeps dropping.

I typically love your plays although this drop tore through the multiyear low of 2021, 2022 and 2023 below all (meaningful) resistance and below VWAP. This is a falling knife and although 40 sounds safe, I think there will be a better entry for more premium later. Covid low around low 50s may be a better entry.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I typically love your plays although this drop tore through the multiyear low of 2021, 2022 and 2023 below all (meaningful) resistance and below VWAP. This is a falling knife and although 40 sounds safe, I think there will be a better entry for more premium later. Covid low around low 50s may be a better entry.

starter position, $40 seems very safe. Will load more if it drops into 50s, solid fundamentals too for the company, decently profitable and decent growth prospects. Let’s face it - every patient who has a dexcom loves it as well. Plus sooner or later they will be coming out with their OTC continuous glucose monitor stelo.

$40 just seemed like a safe bet. The company isn’t going anywhere, it’s still growing and decently profitable.

Falling knives are what i love. Hard to time the exact bottom, but there’s value here. The weekly rsi is also ridiculously over sold, even a dead cat bounce and I’ll likely start cashing out some gains.

I don’t like that I’m going to January, but i really wanted the $40 price point. Regardless, even if it goes all the way to $50 price point, that’s still okay, just gotta diamond hands my way through the initial pain. I’m getting my ~2% return per month on this trade and that’s what i like maintaining.

I’m actively diversifying my portfolio these days and looking at more and more individual companies to add to my watch list. Currently sold puts on - ewz, dxcm, lyft, ewz, pypl, sq, upwk, sofi, jets, mpw.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Here are the fundamentals that I care about about DXCM

Current price = $64. Market cap - 25.5B

$40 = $16B market cap.

If price drops to $40 then the following applies:

2024 guided revenue = $4B (Price/sales = 4 if price drops to $40)
2024 guided net margin = 20% = 1B in net operating profit (future 2024 price/earnings ratio of 16 if price goes to $40)
2024 Adjusted EBITDA = 29% = 1.16B adjusted EBITDA

Throw in the 750M of share repurchase program that was also just announced today which will further improve the price to earnings ratio by decreasing share count.

A company growing at 10-15 percent in an industry that is growing, with a product that is significantly superior to how things have been done, is a decent risk adjusted return with based puts at $40 strike.

 

[emergentmd]

I would not mind investing 150k to get a return of 7-8k/month if I know the chance of losing it all is very slim. 7-8k/month is a freaking huge return.

Do you get that much return playing that game?

That is is a 60% annual return with low risks?

😂

 

[valianteffort]

CELH puts sold today. What a downturn for the worst. Every hospital doctor's lounge has them! 10 billion cap , lot of room to run back.

 

[southerndoc]

CELH puts sold today. What a downturn for the worst. Every hospital doctor's lounge has them! 10 billion cap , lot of room to run back. View attachment 390269

I think Pepsi has a lot of inventory that hasn't been distributed. Celsius likely will go up, but I doubt it'll ever have the success run as Monster did.

 

[anthroguy]

Has anyone here looked at HIMS? I treat obesity with GLP1s daily and have sent them zero patients, but those lacking insurance coverage find HIMS or a similar competitor. The stock took a downturn this week with LLY announcing the shortages are easing, but their market has to be huge and just a couple hundred thousand people using them would support their current market cap. They charge $199/month for the GLP1 service and I'm assuming $100/month of this is profit. Anyone have insight into whether this profit/patient number is completely off or if there is a compounding competitor out there that is stronger?

Downsides:
Regulatory or legal challenge to their compounding of GLP1s which are all on patent
Other compounding competitors
A price decrease on the branded on patent medication

Upside
Shortage is actually in effect and they can increase patient base
Cornering of compounding market as they have a substantial base from hair loss, ED patient base
Continue medical weight loss carve outs from insurance companies pushing patients off of the branded medication

 

[cyanide12345678]

Has anyone here looked at HIMS? I treat obesity with GLP1s daily and have sent them zero patients, but those lacking insurance coverage find HIMS or a similar competitor. The stock took a downturn this week with LLY announcing the shortages are easing, but their market has to be huge and just a couple hundred thousand people using them would support their current market cap. They charge $199/month for the GLP1 service and I'm assuming $100/month of this is profit. Anyone have insight into whether this profit/patient number is completely off or if there is a compounding competitor out there that is stronger?

Downsides:
Regulatory or legal challenge to their compounding of GLP1s which are all on patent
Other compounding competitors
A price decrease on the branded on patent medication

Upside
Shortage is actually in effect and they can increase patient base
Cornering of compounding market as they have a substantial base from hair loss, ED patient base
Continue medical weight loss carve outs from insurance companies pushing patients off of the branded medication

Semaglutide patent will only exist for another 1-2 years, the market will likely get flooded with cheaper generic versions, making compounding unnecessary.

Their main business model though isn’t glps, a majority of their patients come to them for hiv meds, std meds, and viagra etc. they only just entered the glp market, but their other segments have grown 20 percent year over year the last i talked to them in an interview.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I got 35% ish profit on my January dxcm position and walked out a couple days ago.

 

[RustedFox]

I think Pepsi has a lot of inventory that hasn't been distributed. Celsius likely will go up, but I doubt it'll ever have the success run as Monster did.

Celsius forgot the most important part of making a beverage good.
I've tasted every single one.
They all have that awful, powdery, "I just snorted a crushed-up sweet-tart candy" taste to them.

 

[cyanide12345678]

One year later, i think my post has aged well as im about to hit 6 figures of profit on mpw this year.

Continuing to beat the spy by 2-3x ever since becoming a trader. And while i had a slow start to the year, im back to beating spy ytd as well.

I would encourage anyone willing to learn to watch youtube videos from tastytrade and learn how you can create a portfolio where you get paid for time to pass by (theta decay).

Cheers and good luck to all the traders out there.

For anyone that cares - I’m currently holding out of the money puts on mpw, ewz, tan, sq, dxcm, abnb, kbe, upwk, lyft and sofi

 

[Splenda88]

One year later, i think my post has aged well as im about to hit 6 figures of profit on mpw this year.

Continuing to beat the spy by 2-3x ever since becoming a trader. And while i had a slow start to the year, im back to beating spy ytd as well.

I would encourage anyone willing to learn to watch youtube videos from tastytrade and learn how you can create a portfolio where you get paid for time to pass by (theta decay).

Cheers and good luck to all the traders out there.

For anyone that cares - I’m currently holding out of the money puts on mpw, ewz, tan, sq, dxcm, abnb, kbe, upwk, lyft and sofi

You should work EM part time (2 days/wk) and spend the rest of the time trading.

 

[cyanide12345678]

You should work EM part time (2 days/wk) and spend the rest of the time trading.

My 12-13k volume shop i only work 10 shifts per month. This is my main gig. Usually even on shift im able to throw in some trades, unless its really busy. 10 shifts isn’t bad though.

My 7.5k volume shop i almost always have time to trade.

My wealth has still largely come from my wife and my income - and not really options. Options in 3 years has made me 385k (140k ytd, 205k 2023, +40k 2022 when market ended 20 percent down). My income alone last year was 470k - so higher than 3 years of gains.

 

[cyanide12345678]

You should work EM part time (2 days/wk) and spend the rest of the time trading.

I also think once you learn and get comfortable, spending more time trading only results in more panic trades that aren’t necessarily optimal. I don’t think I’ll get significantly better returns if i spend more time. I’ll probably make more mistakes and do emotional trades on large negative days the more time i spend.

For example, my current portfolio is attached. It’s not necessarily an ideal portfolio with expiration dates 4 months out. It’s not even remotely efficient at capturing time decay. But realistically i shouldn’t have to do much of anything at all unless a stock/etf starts coming close to my strike. Only then do i need to do anything.

So in all likelihood i don’t need to do anything unless something close to the following happens in 4 months:

Abnb drops 27%
Dxcm drops 33%
Ewz drops 21%
Kbe drops 23%
Lyft drops 35%
Mpw drops 46%
Sofi drops 26%
Sq drops 36%
Tan drops 25 %
Upwk drops 13%

If none of the above happens, great, i make another 57k in 4 months.

So i think 10 minutes is actually enough in a day to make sure the prices aren’t creeping close to my strike prices, and if they are, you trade (drop strike, or just roll and drop strike). Pretty simple to execute in a few minutes.

 

[Groove]

Yeah, I thought about you other day when I saw that MPW pop after the Steward settlement deal.

I'm still doing my usual style trading and have even gotten perhaps a little more conservative in that I'm primarily carrying stuff that I wouldn't mind long term holding. All of it on the S&P. I was off to a rip the first part of the year and then my accounts went sideways with all the VIX and SPY volatility. Have made the most money on NVDA. I feel like I know that stock really well now and have been holding it for a long time. I exited around 120 and bought it back around 105 recently and have about a 12% gain over the past couple of weeks. All in all, 36% gain YTD vs SPY 17% but the year isn't over yet so we'll see how it looks come December.

I'm a little SPY heavy at the moment because when the index tanked recently, it took out a bunch of my positions and I just bought SPY on its way down. My rational is that it's always difficult to time the bottom to a major index but let's face it....it's always going to recover so it's at least something I can just check my brain out and be reassured that my money isn't wasted in something more speculative. S&P is currently very close to resistance level around 564/565 where it's already had a double top July 16th and Aug 30th and we are very close to approaching that level so I'm a little nervous and if it can't break that level, we could see a big retracement so let's hope for the best.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Yeah, I thought about you other day when I saw that MPW pop after the Steward settlement deal.

I'm still doing my usual style trading and have even gotten perhaps a little more conservative in that I'm primarily carrying stuff that I wouldn't mind long term holding. All of it on the S&P. I was off to a rip the first part of the year and then my accounts went sideways with all the VIX and SPY volatility. Have made the most money on NVDA. I feel like I know that stock really well now and have been holding it for a long time. I exited around 120 and bought it back around 105 recently and have about a 12% gain over the past couple of weeks. All in all, 36% gain YTD vs SPY 17% but the year isn't over yet so we'll see how it looks come December.

I'm a little SPY heavy at the moment because when the index tanked recently, it took out a bunch of my positions and I just bought SPY on its way down. My rational is that it's always difficult to time the bottom to a major index but let's face it....it's always going to recover so it's at least something I can just check my brain out and be reassured that my money isn't wasted in something more speculative. S&P is currently very close to resistance level around 564/565 where it's already had a double top July 16th and Aug 30th and we are very close to approaching that level so I'm a little nervous and if it can't break that level, we could see a big retracement so let's hope for the best.

I don’t think there’s such a thing as being ‘spy heavy’.

Most would argue that that’s excellent investing.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Yeah, I thought about you other day when I saw that MPW pop after the Steward settlement deal.

I'm still doing my usual style trading and have even gotten perhaps a little more conservative in that I'm primarily carrying stuff that I wouldn't mind long term holding. All of it on the S&P. I was off to a rip the first part of the year and then my accounts went sideways with all the VIX and SPY volatility. Have made the most money on NVDA. I feel like I know that stock really well now and have been holding it for a long time. I exited around 120 and bought it back around 105 recently and have about a 12% gain over the past couple of weeks. All in all, 36% gain YTD vs SPY 17% but the year isn't over yet so we'll see how it looks come December.

I'm a little SPY heavy at the moment because when the index tanked recently, it took out a bunch of my positions and I just bought SPY on its way down. My rational is that it's always difficult to time the bottom to a major index but let's face it....it's always going to recover so it's at least something I can just check my brain out and be reassured that my money isn't wasted in something more speculative. S&P is currently very close to resistance level around 564/565 where it's already had a double top July 16th and Aug 30th and we are very close to approaching that level so I'm a little nervous and if it can't break that level, we could see a big retracement so let's hope for the best.

Also….mpw had to pop at some point. It was trading at 0.5 x of its book value of its real estate. Steward was only 20% of its assets. Even if steward assets went to 0, even then it was too low a price when it was in the $3 range.

And yes some hospitals might close, but all 31 hospitals and assets were not going to 0 by any means. Different operators were going to come in - as it eventually happened with 15 hospitals.

The 8 worst MA hospitals actually were the ONLY assets with secured debt conveniently as well - they got rid of the assets to get rid of secured debt there and walked away. All their other portfolio is unsecured 😂

I’ve been impressed by their management how they’ve accomplished so much recently. Management gets so much crap though.

 

[Groove]

Also….mpw had to pop at some point. It was trading at 0.5 x of its book value of its real estate. Steward was only 20% of its assets. Even if steward assets went to 0, even then it was too low a price when it was in the $3 range.

And yes some hospitals might close, but all 31 hospitals and assets were not going to 0 by any means. Different operators were going to come in - as it eventually happened with 15 hospitals.

The 8 worst MA hospitals actually were the ONLY assets with secured debt conveniently as well - they got rid of the assets to get rid of secured debt there and walked away. All their other portfolio is unsecured 😂

I’ve been impressed by their management how they’ve accomplished so much recently. Management gets so much crap though.

Lots more chatter on SA regarding MPW over the last few weeks. It developed positive ichimoku criteria earlier this month on the daily. I consider it a purely speculative stock but this seems to have big potential for an epic short squeeze. Still 40% shorted, mainly institutional. I never thought I'd say this when you started this thread, but I actually took a position at 5.90 this morning with a stop @ 5.75 which is right below support on the 4h chart. LOL.

I had been eyeing it in the past 2 days and set some RSI alerts on the 15m and 30m charts and got alerted this morning and was like...ah what the hell.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Lots more chatter on SA regarding MPW over the last few weeks. It developed positive ichimoku criteria earlier this month on the daily. I consider it a purely speculative stock but this seems to have big potential for an epic short squeeze. Still 40% shorted, mainly institutional. I never thought I'd say this when you started this thread, but I actually took a position at 5.90 this morning with a stop @ 5.75 which is right below support on the 4h chart. LOL.

I had been eyeing it in the past 2 days and set some RSI alerts on the 15m and 30m charts and got alerted this morning and was like...ah what the hell.

Interesting. I was thinking mpw was going back to $5 😂😂

I mean i agree, there’s potential for a short squeeze, which is why i haven’t done any strangles on this thing, even though the call premiums have been so juicy.

But honestly, i don’t know if i would have bought at $6, i think the fair value of the stock is somewhere near 7-8, so it’s starting to get really close to fair value. But hey…. You’re a short term momentum based trader, im a fundamentals kind of a guy. So i get what you’re doing. It made infinitely more sense to me sub $5.

I hold 1010 $3 January puts and 75 $3.5 January puts. Both have a combined 15.7k premium left. Sitting on 31k unrealized gain on these positions and just don’t want to close until January - mostly due to tax reasons.