Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

[HemorrhagicShock]

F*************ck.

I need to suck it up and start investing in airbnb properties.

just realized i probably owe another 75k in federal taxes. So far I’ve paid $155k in federal taxes for 2023.

I’m hoping I’m wrong.

I need airbnbs.

Are you managing AirBNBs as well???

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Are you managing AirBNBs as well???

I wish i was. Its something i intermittently think about as it’s a relatively easier way to legally significantly decrease w2 taxes.

The only 2 things that can drop w2 tax burden are if you own airbnbs, or if you have so much real estate that you qualify for real estate tax professional. But real estate tax professional is almost impossible to acquire for full time doctors - airbnbs is the loophole around it.

If you own an airbnb, and your average length of stay is less than 7 days, and you worked on the airbnb for >100 hours, more hours than anyone else - then your airbnb counts as a business rather than a real estate property. Then you can do a cost segregation analysis, take whatever bonus depreciation that still remains in law, and essentially avoid w2 taxes.

So, lets say you bought a beach front million dollar property in florida. Then did a cost seg, resulting in year 1 depreciation of 30 percent - then you can use that to decrease your income by 300000. Effectively dropping your taxes by 105k if you’re in the 35 percent tax bracket.

Really powerful stuff. I keep thinking about it but haven’t done it

 

[emergentmd]

I thought about becoming a RE professional too but I found it becomes an unsustainable cycle. If you buy a 1M home, cost seg, take up front depreciation, cut your income by 300K then you also dropped your cost basis by 300K. There are other nuances that people don't take into account but it gets alittle complicated.

When you go sell the place, your now have a large gain that you either pay taxes on or do a 1031 to kick the can down the road. Eventually, you are almost forced to buy bigger properties or buy when you really don't want to.

I heard that accelerated depreciation may be winding down too, but not sure if this has taken effect.

I tried to get into options trading but it was just boring to me so wasn't worth it. Also, there is really no reliable passive income.

I enjoy RE and have gotten really good at it. I have moved away from LTRs and now do STR/MTR mostly. I know how to make money in this niche and its a good deduction/passive income play. I bought a 500K property 7 yrs ago, put in about 300K, and cashflows about 80K/yr. I have about 200K note and when its paid off, it is equivalent to having a job that pays me 7K/month. Bought a duplex for 350K cash, put in 50K renovation, doing MTRs and last year Cash flowed 40K. Just these 2 pays me 10k/month essentially doing very little spending about 2/month.

This is not even taking in all of the deductions, appreciation, write offs that comes with RE. I just got licensed as a FINRA REP and another thing I can take deductions.

Spend a week in Florida, do some work and look at some properties, write it off as a business expense.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Nice, I just woke up before market close, sold TMUS and took a 30K position.

Gct Heading to $23 before rebound? What do you think.

I added 20 more contracts to my position size

 

[HemorrhagicShock]

What's your STR/MTR strategy? Are you doing VRBO/AirBNB as well? For the MTRs are doing the whole locums healthcare workers grind? @emergentmd

Gct Heading to $23 before rebound? What do you think.

I added 20 more contracts to my position size

I'm looking at the weekly, monthly, daily, and hourly ticker here and just wondering what strategy/approach you're using to make this decision. Adding more contracts to effectively "buy the dip?"

 

[emergentmd]

I live in a big city so lots of workers coming for construction, nursing, etc.

STRs all in vacation places and they book well in summer, I have a property manager b/c STRs require alot of work especially when people leave/come the same day.

I used to do LTRs but sold my last one, now I have 2 MTRs and maybe doing a 3rd soon. MTRs you have to put money in to make it look decent, nothing opulent but clean. Renters typically are very clean and when they have 1 or 2 people, they have 1 or 2 people.

My duplex would have rented probably 3800/mo max. My MTRs have rented about 5k/mo,so take away about $600-1000 prer month for ulilities. Maybe make alittle more but there is very little wear and tear plus I am assured lawn/maintenance are performed regularly.

I airbnb/vrbo them all. There is a strong market for MTRs.

My goal is to cash flow 300K/yr from my rentals which should be achievable in 5 years when all debt paid off. I prob cash flow about 150K right now. Once I hit that, it essentially replaces a full time ER equivalent job.

 

[Groove]

Gct Heading to $23 before rebound? What do you think.

I added 20 more contracts to my position size

It blew through my stop. Now, I'm remembering why I stay away from stocks showing this kind of volatility. It's penetrated the kumo cloud deeply on the daily but not broken through. Now trading below SMA 50. It's extending beyond 0.5 fib at this point. Next retracement would be around 22.5 level. This one may be too hot for me to handle. Will keep watching it but for now I'm out of the trade.

 

[HemorrhagicShock]

I live in a big city so lots of workers coming for construction, nursing, etc.

STRs all in vacation places and they book well in summer, I have a property manager b/c STRs require alot of work especially when people leave/come the same day.

I used to do LTRs but sold my last one, now I have 2 MTRs and maybe doing a 3rd soon. MTRs you have to put money in to make it look decent, nothing opulent but clean. Renters typically are very clean and when they have 1 or 2 people, they have 1 or 2 people.

My duplex would have rented probably 3800/mo max. My MTRs have rented about 5k/mo,so take away about $600-1000 prer month for ulilities. Maybe make alittle more but there is very little wear and tear plus I am assured lawn/maintenance are performed regularly.

I airbnb/vrbo them all. There is a strong market for MTRs.

My goal is to cash flow 300K/yr from my rentals which should be achievable in 5 years when all debt paid off. I prob cash flow about 150K right now. Once I hit that, it essentially replaces a full time ER equivalent job.

Wow you must own a ton of real estate if you're about to be cash-flowing 300k/year. I assume it's all at stupidly low interest rates as well?

I'm trying to figure out how to cash flow my current rentals but it's challenging in this market. I bought them within the last 2 years, so that's part of the problem.

Anybody who went into the real estate market after 2008 but before interest rates skyrocketed post-pandemic are all sitting pretty from what I can tell..

How do you manage your MTRs, do you do it yourself, or do you also have a team for that? How did you assemble that team or find those managers?

 

[cyanide12345678]

It blew through my stop. Now, I'm remembering why I stay away from stocks showing this kind of volatility. It's penetrated the kumo cloud deeply on the daily but not broken through. Now trading below SMA 50. It's extending beyond 0.5 fib at this point. Next retracement would be around 22.5 level. This one may be too hot for me to handle. Will keep watching it but for now I'm out of the trade.

And this is exactly why i do puts instead. Limits losses at the expense of an upside.

So i doubled down to now having a full position - 100 contracts.

Will move to $15 or 12.5 July if things keep going against me. Not doing that unless things get close to $20. But expecting some sort of bounce once it’s oversold and rsi becomes fairly low.

The significant downside protection from puts means im only down $800 on this position - would definitely be a lot more if i had instead bought such a large position.

If im forced to roll, attached is probably what ill do. This roll will drop my strike to $12.5 from 17.5, increase position size slightly to 135 contracts, but significantly decrease risk by dropping strike and in fact it also drops the total possible maximum loss. Despite doing all of that, it still adds more premium to the mix. And quite honestly, can keep dropping strike until i win because time works in my benefit. And i will win eventually because their financials are nowhere near bankruptsy.

 

[cyanide12345678]

What's your STR/MTR strategy? Are you doing VRBO/AirBNB as well? For the MTRs are doing the whole locums healthcare workers grind? @emergentmd



I'm looking at the weekly, monthly, daily, and hourly ticker here and just wondering what strategy/approach you're using to make this decision. Adding more contracts to effectively "buy the dip?"

Yes did exactly that. Added more contracts. Sitting at 100 now from 65. The bigger the negavtive day and the lower it goes, the larger premium i receive. So effectively - i averaged up my average premium per contract.

Not adding more for now, unless i drop strike. If price gets close to $20, im going down to $12.5 as mentioned in my post above. It will decrease my overall return over time - if i just win this current trade im looking at around 10 percent in 2 months. If i roll, I’m adding 2 months and only 1.4 percent (total buying power used is 90k for these 100 contracts and I’ve received $9627 in premium so far)- so a total of 11-12 percent over 4 months. But that’s why a roll out to Time is last resort - another thing is that june contracts will open up soon, that would make for an easy roll to $15 as well while adding only 1 month.

Will postpone roll as much as possible as the theta decay is higher for less than 60 days where I’m sitting right now.

 

[emergentmd]

Wow you must own a ton of real estate if you're about to be cash-flowing 300k/year. I assume it's all at stupidly low interest rates as well?

I'm trying to figure out how to cash flow my current rentals but it's challenging in this market. I bought them within the last 2 years, so that's part of the problem.

Anybody who went into the real estate market after 2008 but before interest rates skyrocketed post-pandemic are all sitting pretty from what I can tell..

How do you manage your MTRs, do you do it yourself, or do you also have a team for that? How did you assemble that team or find those managers?

Started 7 yrs ago and had the delusion of owning 25+ rental homes/paid off living off rentals but they start to become a decent amount of work even if you have managers.

I have learned alot and was naive but experience/mistakes are the best teacher. If you are buying is this rate environment you will not cash flow if you do the typical 30% down. I just bought a MTR last month at 7.5% rate that will not cash flow but its 300K+ below market from 2 yrs ago. Once rate goes down to 5%, I will refinance and pull out the down payment thus making this home zero cost to own. I did the same with a STR and actually refinanced out 100K more than I put in. I would never recommend buying a rental at 7.5% unless you know what you are doing.

I cash flow about 150k/yr currently on 5 rentals and bringing in 2 more rentals on. Once the 2M debt on all my properties are paid off, I will get about 300K cash flow. 2M sounds like alot but the more you pay off the debt, the accelerations happens quickly. Plus, if values go up, I may just sell a few to be debt free.

 

[HemorrhagicShock]

Started 7 yrs ago and had the delusion of owning 25+ rental homes/paid off living off rentals but they start to become a decent amount of work even if you have managers.

I have learned alot and was naive but experience/mistakes are the best teacher. If you are buying is this rate environment you will not cash flow if you do the typical 30% down. I just bought a MTR last month at 7.5% rate that will not cash flow but its 300K+ below market from 2 yrs ago. Once rate goes down to 5%, I will refinance and pull out the down payment thus making this home zero cost to own. I did the same with a STR and actually refinanced out 100K more than I put in. I would never recommend buying a rental at 7.5% unless you know what you are doing.

I cash flow about 150k/yr currently on 5 rentals and bringing in 2 more rentals on. Once the 2M debt on all my properties are paid off, I will get about 300K cash flow. 2M sounds like alot but the more you pay off the debt, the accelerations happens quickly. Plus, if values go up, I may just sell a few to be debt free.

These are wild numbers any way you cut it.

150k net cash flow on 2M of debt in the real estate market currently is absurd.

You really got in at the perfect time.

And finding a real estate deal that's "300k below market" - where do you find this stuff?

I swear man all of your business and investment history is so wild to me, even compared to people I know in real life who do this for a living (e.g residential or commercial real estate, or buying/flipping businesses etc.)

 

[emergentmd]

150k net cash flow on 2M of debt in the real estate market currently is absurd.
I am at 150K net on 500K debt. Took on 2 more bringing it up to 2M. Does sound high but debt/value went up from 15 to 30%. I could be debt free if I sold my most valuable property. I don't feel any stress with the current debt.

You really got in at the perfect time.
Definitely got lucky when rates were sub 4%, and covid valuation RE spike. But there are always good opportunities. I just bought a property at 7.5% that should work out well. Definitely more risks.

And finding a real estate deal that's "300k below market" - where do you find this stuff?
You got to enjoy it just like doing options. I will look at the market I want to invest in and weekly look at the prices. The place I bought last month for 900K would have been a bidding war at 1.2M when rates were sub 4%. If rates go down to 5%, which I think will happen in 2 yrs, this place will be back to 1.2M+. I see alot of opportunities that I would love to buy, just don't want to overleverage.

I swear man all of your business and investment history is so wild to me, even compared to people I know in real life who do this for a living (e.g residential or commercial real estate, or buying/flipping businesses etc.)
You got to enjoy it, get some luck, willing to take educated risks, be a nice/honest person to get connections/networking. I am lucky to be able to do what I want, when I want without the need to rush. I have left alot of good opportunities on the table because my time is more valuable than money. I have started funding accredited syndicated project because this is just fun. I am just looking for side gigs to keep me busy as I wind down on doing EM work.

 

[cyanide12345678]

It blew through my stop. Now, I'm remembering why I stay away from stocks showing this kind of volatility. It's penetrated the kumo cloud deeply on the daily but not broken through. Now trading below SMA 50. It's extending beyond 0.5 fib at this point. Next retracement would be around 22.5 level. This one may be too hot for me to handle. Will keep watching it but for now I'm out of the trade.

Okay I read a little on GCT. I previously had only just read their balance sheet and earnings report and opened a position. But now actually dived into the history and read things on seekingalpha and also read their entire earnings report word by word.

Even went ahead and read the short report by Culver research.

The short report, though a few months old, is definitely an interesting read - Some very logical points have been raised. And I'll probably have to decrease my position size based on some of this information as well. Will wait for a good positive day to offload.

https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/cc91fda7-4669-4d1b-81ce-a0b8d77f25ab/downloads/Culper_GCT_9-28-2023.pdf?ver=1711029116659

The short report raises some extremely valid points - Though the following points are working in the favor of GCT.

1) A "fake" company doesn't just come up with 80M to buy one US based firm and then another 10M cash to buy another US based firm (along with inheriting several warehouse leases). The 80M firm was in bankruptsy court - all publicly open transactions - They definitely bought this company.

Epiq 11

Epiq11.com builds on a library of cases spanning two decades - the largest repository of such data in the industry outside of the federal court system.

dm.epiq11.com

2) Linkedin seems very real - Corporate events etc.

3) They have the web traffic - https://www.similarweb.com/website/gigab2b.com/#overview

4) Hired White and Case LLP to do an independent review of the short thesis which was found to be unfounded. No company would be using the name of a huge law firm if they didn't actually use them to perform this independent review. So this is reassuring but I can't find any original report from the actual law firm. All I find is a statement by the company itself saying all is good

https://investors.gigacloudtech.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gigacloud-technology-inc-announces-completion-independent-review

5) Response to short report was fairly inadequate though in my opinion. https://investors.gigacloudtech.com...gy-inc-refutes-misleading-claims-short-seller

I still don't understand who these magical 3rd party warehouse contractors are that they are using while having such beautiful industry beating margins.

6) KPMG is indeed signing off on the form 20-F. Though it's one of their chinese branch - but none the less a branch of one of the largest accounting firms in the world. The 20-F form checks out.

https://investors.gigacloudtech.com/static-files/657f4176-11b1-429d-987c-fa575cb26722

I think the US based 10-K filing which is soon to come out in 4-5 days will give a lot of clarity especially now that this 10-k filing will be based on US standards of accounting now that their domicile is US based. Plus the fact that they will soon be added to numerous index funds will also add tailwinds for them as well. Regardless - definitely an interesting short report.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Unloaded gct at a very small loss $200 for the entire position.

Added more of my winners with buying power - increased mpw especially with the positive news, definitely not touching $3 any time soon. Added more sofi. Did a very big add for lyft - 100 more contracts but also dropped all contracts down to $12. Reopened arkk at $37.

42k premium - 86 days remaining. Stuck for the entire week at 80k ytd gain.

 

[HemorrhagicShock]

Unloaded gct at a very small loss $200 for the entire position.

Added more of my winners with buying power - increased mpw especially with the positive news, definitely not touching $3 any time soon. Added more sofi. Did a very big add for lyft - 100 more contracts but also dropped all contracts down to $12. Reopened arkk at $37.

42k premium - 86 days remaining. Stuck for the entire week at 80k ytd gain.

How did you choose your expiry dates for these positions. Personal preference? A specific risk calculation on your end?

 

[valianteffort]

Unloaded gct at a very small loss $200 for the entire position.

Added more of my winners with buying power - increased mpw especially with the positive news, definitely not touching $3 any time soon. Added more sofi. Did a very big add for lyft - 100 more contracts but also dropped all contracts down to $12. Reopened arkk at $37.

42k premium - 86 days remaining. Stuck for the entire week at 80k ytd gain.

I'm curious what your thoughts are on HOOD eating sofi's customer basis up? Their new hood gold is amazing and there is no incentive to invest/bank with sofi over robinhood anymore. 5% interest on any cash (for now, but higher than sofi), 3% cash back credit card (sofi has the same for 1 year only), 3% IRA match, 1% unlimited deposit match. FDIC insured 9x the 250k standard. Wild that a company is able to offer this. I think sofi is going to pay huge and robinhood will come out on top

I get legally HOOD is not a 'bank'. However why wouldn't people choose to leave their money there now? They are rolling out really good perks.

 

[cyanide12345678]

How did you choose your expiry dates for these positions. Personal preference? A specific risk calculation on your end?

Current portfolio is attached. I’m going to go over rationality of each position.

ARKK - 60 June contracts $37 strike

In an ideal world my strike would be around $35-36. In fact, it was $36 2 days ago, those positions were all closed then when it was a very positive day for arkk. And today, arkk started the day negative, so i went ahead and sold a few positions at $37 strike.

$35 is around the 1 year low point. But the premium for those positions within a 90 day time period is just not worth it. $37 is low enough where i feel very comfortable, i know i can drop strike over time if absolutely needed in that $35 range of 52 week low, while still getting decent premium.

1820 premium received for 40k worth of buying power = 4.5% return in 3 months. 18 percent annualized.

Not bad for 26% downside protection. The 45-60 day contracts just didn't have enough juice at the desired mid 30s strike.


EWZ - 275 contracts $27 strike for june

27 strike I feel pretty good about because in the event EWZ comes close to it, I can drop strike, increase positions, while increasing time. $$25-26 the ETF has bounced basically 4 times in the last 5 years. The only time it has gone below that $25 number was the pandemic low - Unlikely stocks are going back to pandemic lows. 27 strike in 86 days means that even if price comes down into the upper 20s in a month or so (unlikely to happen over night), then I can continue to roll down and out the strike and eventually come out successful. Last year I made 200k on EWZ when I went big when price went down into the 27-28 range - Same concept. Worst case scenario - Price drops to 28-29 range, I drop strike, go long, increase position sizes, concentrate portfolio, and go down to a very safe strike like $23 or $24 (pandemic lows) and essentially collect more premium (Exact playbook that was done the last 2 years that eventually made me hundreds of thousands of dollars - 200k in 2023 alone). Main point is - $27 is low enough that I can manage the position easily and drop the strike a few dollars over time to even pandemic lows if needed.

EWZ is fundamentally great and I expect it to do well over time.

Received 5000 premium (275 contracts) for this ~112000 buying power used. = 4.46% return in 3 months. 18% annualized.

Again - needed 90 days to have meaningful return at this $27 strike that I consider as safe.


FXI 45 contracts $19.85 strike for June

Starter position. Only 45 contracts. If price drops more, I'll drop strike and add more positions aggressively. FXI Has not been below $20 in the last 18 or so years. The last time it was at that level was when the ETF started around 2006. It has bounced and gotten close to 20, but not below it for any significant time. Sounds like a safe bet.

Received $600 in premium (45 contracts) for 13500 buying power. 4.4% return. 18% annualized.

I've actually tried increasing this position multiple times, but the bid ask spread on FXI is always brutal. Even with a huge move in my benefit, bid ask spread has historically been painful so I've never had huge position sizes.


LYFT - 605 June Put $12 strike contracts AND 225 $30 May Call contracts

If you look at the chart for Lyft - Feb 13th it closes around $12. Earnings come out -> Boom -> 18-19 -> Consolidates -> Next round up -> 20+ -> Next round of consolidation to today at 19.48.

$12 seems like a safe number given that this is where lyft was before a blockbuster earnings -> revenue beat, EPS beat + Solid forward guidance + improving margins by 50 bps and increasing total number of rides. Plus it is now solidly profitable with continued expected profitability.

So unlikely it will go back below $12 before the next earnings given the positive momentum of growth and profitability. Today there was a significantly negative day

605 contracts got me $12600 in premium.


This is only half the equation. This is one of those positions where I'm playing a strangle (Sold naked put and naked call) and not just a naked put. For those unaware - A sold naked put does well if stock goes up and makes your strike unlikely to happen. A sold naked call goes up when a stock goes down making your strike unlikely to happen.

I've also sold 225 naked calls for $30 strike - May expiration.

So while I believe Lyft is going to go up (where a naked call becomes negative) - I don't think it will go up all the way to 30 (another 53% rise in 1.5 months - especially since it's come up from $12).

Together - both positions mitigate each other. Negative days - The call is positive. Positive day - The put is positive. The put position size is much larger because I do think the stock is going to go up. The call expiration is only 50 days instead of 3 months because while I dont think it will hit 30 in 50 days, I absolutely think it is going back into the 30s given enough time.

This naked call got me $3200 premium.

Together I got $15800 premium for 170K worth of buying power = 9.3% return in 3 months. 37% annualized.


MPW - 250 contracts June $3 strike

$3 strike. I held $3 strikes when the price went as low as $2.92. Even after it went back above 3, it repeatedly tested $3.1 MULTIPLE times - almost 2-3 times a week for a couple of weeks. Each time, there was tremendous buying support at $3.1. So I feel pretty good about $3 especially now that the dust is settling - Short interest going down, steward assets being bought by united, steward solvency issues more or less almost resolved, all capital transactions repeatedly confirmed the underlying real estate value again and again.

Received $4750 for these 250 contracts and used about 60k in buying power. 8% return in 3 months. 32% annualized roughly.

This is a VERY VERY small position size now that MPW has gone up significantly. When it was around $3-$3.5 - I had 800 contracts for $3 strike, 400 contracts for $2.5 and 400 contracts for $2 strike. I literally had 1600 contracts on MPW when it was right around $3 - Hence I'm up 41k YTD on this from all those positions. Every time MPW dropped, I rolled, increased position size, and went bigger because I believed the fundamentals and believed a recovery was around the corner - Was negative 20k in January on MPW in 2024. Now +41k in March post recovery.

Position size is small - if another dip happens - Will go big again.

Pypl - 5 contracts June $47.5 strike

Only 5 contracts. Starter position. Extremely safe. The last time PYPL was $47 was in 2017 when revenues, earnings and assets were not even close to what they are today - Had a much larger position when it was in the 50s - but now it's a smaller position since profits were taken once it went up.

received $185 premium (5 contracts) - 3700 buying power - 5% return in 3 months. 20% annualized.

I just psychologically like being below $50 on Pypl strikes.


SOFI - 200 June contracts $5 strike

It's hovered around 5 for a very small amount of time in the last 5 years and has not meaningfully gone below it and has seen a lot of buying support at those levels. Plus now there's positive momentum and profitability - so unlikely to go there again and if it does, it should meet a lot of buying interest at those levels. $5 is a very safe bet and obviously allows for strike to be dropped over time in the worst case possible. I'll talk more about sofi in my next post in response to valienteffort

Received 2735 premium (200 contracts) for 50k buying power - 5.5% return in 3 months. 22% annualized.

TAN - 60 June contracts $35 strike

It's an ETF - I dont know much about it. It's a small position so it seems safe lol. Haven't looked much into it. Just know that Enphase is the largest holding and it has a technological advantage over other solar companies. It hasn't been below $40 since 2020 so $35 strike seems safe. Plus only 60 contracts. In the grand scheme, very small position size compared to some other big plays.

Received 4700 and used 75k of buying power. 6.2% return in 3 months. 25% annualized.

UPWK - 385 contracts May $10 strike

This is a little bit of a greedy play and has occasionally made me nervous. In fact, I did decrease position size on this previously when it broke below $12 and went down to 350 contracts. Once it went back up, I increased position size again.

The premium is very juicy. Received 10900 for 1.5 months expiration while using 90k of buying power - 12.1% return in 1.5 months. 96% annualized return.

Revenues are going up, margins are expanding, earnings were actually pretty good, in fact most analysts have increased their price target after the last earnings report. The revenue growth has been decent. The company is now solidly profitable. Last two quarter reports were fairly good. And the first really good quarterly report 2 reports ago - price was $10. So in my mind $10 is going to be a very solid support level.

They also significantly increased their "Take rate" which is the percentage they are able to extract through all transactions taking place through their marketplace. Just last year their take rate was 14-15% and now they are in the 17% range. They did so by increasing costs, and also by adding "advertisement revenue" where contractors can "boost" their job application etc. The only problem is that the total number of buyers is growing very slowly (single digit growth). And the total GMV (Gross merchandise value) - essentially all the money flowing through their platform from people hiring contractors has only shown very small growth - 4% y/y for 2023 vs 2022.

So while their GMV is only modestly growing - but they've gotten better at squeezing the juice, improving margins, reducing costs (significant reduction in advertisement and administrative costs in 2023 compared to 2022), and essentially charging a higher take rate resulting in increasing revenues. So the revenues and income still grew double digits so I'm optimistic that it's not going back down to $10.

I also firmly believe in the space - Hiring cheap contract labor around the world is SO SO SO damn easy through upwork. It's the leader in the space - NOT FIVERR. They have an enterprise solutions arm that is showing double digit growth - I mean...on paper companies should want to export easy tasks internationally. Upwk makes that really easy. I've personally hired multiple people for SEO work, website development, FB marketing through upwork.

But yeah..Great cash on cash returns. Worth the risk especially with growing margins, growing revenue, growing income, increasing analyst price targets, and earnings that have been beating forecasts for the last few times.

 

[HemorrhagicShock]

I can't thank you enough for that write up. Extremely helpful to get into your mind in regards to the why behind all aspects of your positions. Seriously dude, thank you! @cyanide12345678

 

[cyanide12345678]

I'm curious what your thoughts are on HOOD eating sofi's customer basis up? Their new hood gold is amazing and there is no incentive to invest/bank with sofi over robinhood anymore. 5% interest on any cash (for now, but higher than sofi), 3% cash back credit card (sofi has the same for 1 year only), 3% IRA match, 1% unlimited deposit match. FDIC insured 9x the 250k standard. Wild that a company is able to offer this. I think sofi is going to pay huge and robinhood will come out on top

I get legally HOOD is not a 'bank'. However why wouldn't people choose to leave their money there now? They are rolling out really good perks.

Both sofi and Hood are very very small fishes in a very very big pond. They are not JPM, fidelity, Vanguard, Blackrock, BOA, Citi - Those are the juggernauts. JPM still pays 0.01% to it's customers on cash. Yet, it has some of the largest AUM.

So the idea that somehow Hood growing is going to take away customers from Sofi is flawed. These very tiny guys are slowly slowly slowly gaining market share in a very large market - there's plenty of opportunity for everyone to grow.

Somehow finance is that world where most people just don't know crap. There's a reason edward jones with it's 1.3% AUM fee is one of the largest financial advising firms still. Why does that exist still in a world of robo advisors?

So having a specific thing like a 3% credit card or 5% APR on cash is one specific hook for investors to invest with robinhood. And so just like Robinhood excels in a couple of things as stated, sofi excels in other things - Free financial advisor, FREE robo investor (rather than 0.25% that wealthfront charges), their own sofi specific SPY equivalent funds, and lots and lots of loan products. Hood target audience is the guy/gal who is a casual trader. Retail traders essentially - A lot of whom they also pissed out tremendously during the gamestop saga. Sofi advertises itself as a wealth building tool - investing rather than trading. Robo advisor that mimics a perfect modern portfolio theory based portfolio and does it for free for you. It's focus is wealth building. So the message is slightly different. And like I said, it's a big big market. These both can grow without taking customers away from each other - if anything, the traditional 0.01% interest banks are the most likely to lose customers.

But then the next question is - Why in this world do you need a HYSA? I have them, but that's not where I put my cash. Why not put your money straight in money market funds? The yield is always better than a HYSA, there's no 6 transactions/month limit. And it's state income tax free. So yeah...I mean...why not just buy VUSXX at Sofi? Which you can't do at Robinhood since you know...robinhood doesn't believe in mutual fund investments because those aren't meant to be traded every day every minute.

So the point is - if you're expecting someone to be able to make such a fine nuanced financial decision - then that person will also find a lot of value in what Sofi offers. There's no clear cut winner in either case.

I mean...Why not use Public (yes it's a real brokerage) instead of everyone else? I mean...get paid to trade (yes really!), forget commissions - literally get paid to trade. The point being - There's always someone with a certain marketing hook that's supposedly better. It doesn't mean they will automatically gain tremendous market share. The big dogs will likely stay the big dogs despite their outdated offerings.

So...good for Hood for having a reasonable offering that will meet the needs of certain people. And good for Sofi for having a product that meets the needs of others.

I bought and sold 86000 puts last year - Robinhood is a piece of crap for what I do. So is sofi, public etc. None of them do naked puts -_- No level 4 options!!! So yeah...Everyone needs something different. The only good options trading platforms that I can use are Etrade, think or swim, tasty works, and thats about it.

So now that was my wordy way of saying both can co-exist.

Now lets get to the numbers since I've actually become very numbers focused in my investing decisions. Regardless of how the competition has performed - Here's how SOFI has performed.

Loading…

s27.q4cdn.com

1) 35% revenue growth y/y.
2) 200% adjusted EBIDTA growth y/y.
3) Notice how 1.3B out of 2B of the total annual revenue is from LOAN products (so hood isnt even a competitor there). And almost 90% of profit came from lending.
4) 44% y/y growth of active members
5) Increasing number of financial products

So the reality is - Despite whatever competition is out there. Sofi grew it's userbase by 44% from 2022 to 2023. Revenues have gone up, profits have gone up, and it's no longer losing money, and it's user base has gone up - yet it's the same price as last year, and in fact much much lower price than previously when it didn't have these numbers.

So historically speaking - it shouldn't be a $7 stock - let alone a $5 stock which is my put.

The problem with my style of trading is - yes I protect my downside with far out of the money puts - but when the stock doubles in 2-3 years it also limits my upside, it's pretty painful looking back and thinking I should have just bought the stock LOL. Sofi will be a double bagger in 3-4 years probably.

Edit:

Let this sink in for a second - 3 years ago in 2020 when Sofi IPO'd - it had 1 million users. 600 million in revenue. 40 million annual loss. At that time it opened at $10 a share and quickly went to $25.

Today it has 7.5 million users, 2B in revenue, 400M profit, and a $7.3 share price and has become a household name.

Think about that and tell me why you don't think it's undervalued. If price ever gets near my $5 strike, I will be going VERY VERY VERY big and loading the truck. It will probably be $20 soon in a few years -_- So yeah...I feel pretty good about my $5 strike lol.

 

[valianteffort]

Both sofi and Hood are very very small fishes in a very very big pond. They are not JPM, fidelity, Vanguard, Blackrock, BOA, Citi - Those are the juggernauts. JPM still pays 0.01% to it's customers on cash. Yet, it has some of the largest AUM.

So the idea that somehow Hood growing is going to take away customers from Sofi is flawed. These very tiny guys are slowly slowly slowly gaining market share in a very large market - there's plenty of opportunity for everyone to grow.

Somehow finance is that world where most people just don't know crap. There's a reason edward jones with it's 1.3% AUM fee is one of the largest financial advising firms still. Why does that exist still in a world of robo advisors?

So having a specific thing like a 3% credit card or 5% APR on cash is one specific hook for investors to invest with robinhood. And so just like Robinhood excels in a couple of things as stated, sofi excels in other things - Free financial advisor, FREE robo investor (rather than 0.25% that wealthfront charges), their own sofi specific SPY equivalent funds, and lots and lots of loan products. Hood target audience is the guy/gal who is a casual trader. Retail traders essentially - A lot of whom they also pissed out tremendously during the gamestop saga. Sofi advertises itself as a wealth building tool - investing rather than trading. Robo advisor that mimics a perfect modern portfolio theory based portfolio and does it for free for you. It's focus is wealth building. So the message is slightly different. And like I said, it's a big big market. These both can grow without taking customers away from each other - if anything, the traditional 0.01% interest banks are the most likely to lose customers.

But then the next question is - Why in this world do you need a HYSA? I have them, but that's not where I put my cash. Why not put your money straight in money market funds? The yield is always better than a HYSA, there's no 6 transactions/month limit. And it's state income tax free. So yeah...I mean...why not just buy VUSXX at Sofi? Which you can't do at Robinhood since you know...robinhood doesn't believe in mutual fund investments because those aren't meant to be traded every day every minute.

So the point is - if you're expecting someone to be able to make such a fine nuanced financial decision - then that person will also find a lot of value in what Sofi offers. There's no clear cut winner in either case.

I mean...Why not use Public (yes it's a real brokerage) instead of everyone else? I mean...get paid to trade (yes really!), forget commissions - literally get paid to trade. The point being - There's always someone with a certain marketing hook that's supposedly better. It doesn't mean they will automatically gain tremendous market share. The big dogs will likely stay the big dogs despite their outdated offerings.

So...good for Hood for having a reasonable offering that will meet the needs of certain people. And good for Sofi for having a product that meets the needs of others.

I bought and sold 86000 puts last year - Robinhood is a piece of crap for what I do. So is sofi, public etc. None of them do naked puts -_- No level 4 options!!! So yeah...Everyone needs something different. The only good options trading platforms that I can use are Etrade, think or swim, tasty works, and thats about it.

So now that was my wordy way of saying both can co-exist.

Now lets get to the numbers since I've actually become very numbers focused in my investing decisions. Regardless of how the competition has performed - Here's how SOFI has performed.

Loading…

s27.q4cdn.com

1) 35% revenue growth y/y.
2) 200% adjusted EBIDTA growth y/y.
3) Notice how 1.3B out of 2B of the total annual revenue is from LOAN products (so hood isnt even a competitor there). And almost 90% of profit came from lending.
4) 44% y/y growth of active members
5) Increasing number of financial products

So the reality is - Despite whatever competition is out there. Sofi grew it's userbase by 44% from 2022 to 2023. Revenues have gone up, profits have gone up, and it's no longer losing money, and it's user base has gone up - yet it's the same price as last year, and in fact much much lower price than previously when it didn't have these numbers.

So historically speaking - it shouldn't be a $7 stock - let alone a $5 stock which is my put.

The problem with my style of trading is - yes I protect my downside with far out of the money puts - but when the stock doubles in 2-3 years it also limits my upside, it's pretty painful looking back and thinking I should have just bought the stock LOL. Sofi will be a double bagger in 3-4 years probably.

Edit:

Let this sink in for a second - 3 years ago in 2020 when Sofi IPO'd - it had 1 million users. 600 million in revenue. 40 million annual loss. At that time it opened at $10 a share and quickly went to $25.

Today it has 7.5 million users, 2B in revenue, 400M profit, and a $7.3 share price and has become a household name.

Think about that and tell me why you don't think it's undervalued. If price ever gets near my $5 strike, I will be going VERY VERY VERY big and loading the truck. It will probably be $20 soon in a few years -_- So yeah...I feel pretty good about my $5 strike lol.

This was breathtaking. Who needs a financial advisor when @cyanide12345678 will give you a write up like this

 

[Splenda88]

Wow you must own a ton of real estate if you're about to be cash-flowing 300k/year. I assume it's all at stupidly low interest rates as well?

I'm trying to figure out how to cash flow my current rentals but it's challenging in this market. I bought them within the last 2 years, so that's part of the problem.

Anybody who went into the real estate market after 2008 but before interest rates skyrocketed post-pandemic are all sitting pretty from what I can tell..

How do you manage your MTRs, do you do it yourself, or do you also have a team for that? How did you assemble that team or find those managers?

I went in 2011. Initial investment was 45-50k (20% down + closing cost and some repair). Price of property was 150k in south FL. Property paid itself off 2 yrs ago. Now worth 507k according to Zillow and comparable sales. Cash flowing ONLY ~20k/yr; property tax is damn high in FL.

I am still mad at myself for not going all in at that time. I had people offering me 2BR/1BA condos for 13-15k. Same condos worth 180-190k now.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I went in 2011. Initial investment was 45-50k (20% down + closing cost and some repair). Price of property was 150k in south FL. Property paid itself off 2 yrs ago. Now worth 507k according to Zillow and comparable sales. Cash flowing ONLY ~20k/yr; property tax is damn high in FL.

I am still mad at myself for not going full in at that time. I had people offering me 2BR/1BA condos for 13-15k. Same condos worth 180-190k now.

Those were the good days of investing. I wish i wasn’t a broke college student at that time.
By the way, if the property only cash flows 20k/yr, it might be time to sell and move your capital elsewhere.

Even treasuries would pay you more - hassle free and risk free. 500k in jepi should pay around 40k/yr.

 

[Groove]

Okay I read a little on GCT. I previously had only just read their balance sheet and earnings report and opened a position. But now actually dived into the history and read things on seekingalpha and also read their entire earnings report word by word.

Even went ahead and read the short report by Culver research.

The short report, though a few months old, is definitely an interesting read - Some very logical points have been raised. And I'll probably have to decrease my position size based on some of this information as well. Will wait for a good positive day to offload.

https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/cc91fda7-4669-4d1b-81ce-a0b8d77f25ab/downloads/Culper_GCT_9-28-2023.pdf?ver=1711029116659

The short report raises some extremely valid points - Though the following points are working in the favor of GCT.

1) A "fake" company doesn't just come up with 80M to buy one US based firm and then another 10M cash to buy another US based firm (along with inheriting several warehouse leases). The 80M firm was in bankruptsy court - all publicly open transactions - They definitely bought this company.

Epiq 11

Epiq11.com builds on a library of cases spanning two decades - the largest repository of such data in the industry outside of the federal court system.

dm.epiq11.com

2) Linkedin seems very real - Corporate events etc.

3) They have the web traffic - https://www.similarweb.com/website/gigab2b.com/#overview

4) Hired White and Case LLP to do an independent review of the short thesis which was found to be unfounded. No company would be using the name of a huge law firm if they didn't actually use them to perform this independent review. So this is reassuring but I can't find any original report from the actual law firm. All I find is a statement by the company itself saying all is good

https://investors.gigacloudtech.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gigacloud-technology-inc-announces-completion-independent-review

5) Response to short report was fairly inadequate though in my opinion. https://investors.gigacloudtech.com...gy-inc-refutes-misleading-claims-short-seller

I still don't understand who these magical 3rd party warehouse contractors are that they are using while having such beautiful industry beating margins.

6) KPMG is indeed signing off on the form 20-F. Though it's one of their chinese branch - but none the less a branch of one of the largest accounting firms in the world. The 20-F form checks out.

https://investors.gigacloudtech.com/static-files/657f4176-11b1-429d-987c-fa575cb26722

I think the US based 10-K filing which is soon to come out in 4-5 days will give a lot of clarity especially now that this 10-k filing will be based on US standards of accounting now that their domicile is US based. Plus the fact that they will soon be added to numerous index funds will also add tailwinds for them as well. Regardless - definitely an interesting short report.

10-K looked clean. I re-entered at $27 with a 25K position, currently up 28% Will close position soon, ideally around $40-41

Not bad for a ~3d swing.

 

[Groove]

LOL, man the market is suck a fickle b**ch. I'm up 3% this morning and down 3% this afternoon. F'ing JPOW and his Fed speakers. I swear it's like TSLA when Elon Musk gets his foot stuck in his mouth. The SPY reacts the exact same when one of these guys starts spouting stuff anything but dovish regarding interest rates. Thank God I updated my stops this morning.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Mpw up 21 percent pre-market. This sucker might actually short squeeze with such a high short interest and a huge bump in price.

My biggest winner this year continues winning. Too bad i only hold 475 contracts instead of 1600 contracts when i went really big when it was $3.

Looks like i survived through yet another bottom. It’s all about the fundamentals. Cheers to anyone who made money on this.

 

[Groove]

I've rapidly transitioned to 100% cash over the past 5 days. Multiple stop loss orders hit. With VIX reaching 20+, I'm out of the market until the index reveals its intentions and/or volatility decreases. I may take a short position on the SPY if this correction gains momentum. What a difference a week can make. For any longs....we are approaching bargain bin sales on plenty of strong stocks.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I've rapidly transitioned to 100% cash over the past 5 days. Multiple stop loss orders hit. With VIX reaching 20+, I'm out of the market until the index reveals its intentions and/or volatility decreases. I may take a short position on the SPY if this correction gains momentum. What a difference a week can make. For any longs....we are approaching bargain bin sales on plenty of strong stocks.

Yeah dramatic week. Down 30k this week and 40k (5.5 percent) this month.

Sitting at 40.5k ytd gain, up 5.5 percent still vs 4.8% spy. So still beating spy.

Massive risk reduction was performed at the cost of decreased upside.

Current portfolio is attached. The following adjustments have been made:

1) arkk - had a $36-37 strike when the month started. This went to 35, then 34, and today 33. Maintaining june expirations - so essentially each roll was purely a drop in strike at the cost of decreased premium. Position size did grow to offset some loss of premium. So despite arkk dropping 16 percent in 1 month, my strike remains 21 percent below todays price. Most importantly it is below $34-35 where it received a lot of buying support last. Also, have put myself in a position to roll forward in time to strikes below $30 - levels which arkk have not seen in a long time.

2) lyft dropped from $20 to $16 - 20 percent this month. My strike has gone from $13 to 12 and now at $11 and $10. So another 30 percent downside protection with ability to increase time and push down strikes to sub $10 levels. Took some big hits here - ytd neg 17k on lyft. But should eventually win. I think this just requires some patience.

3) mpw - only winner this month. Strike has been increased to 3.5 due to excellent performance.

4) pypl - opened positions with $47.5 strike.

initially was expecting 120k ytd gain, given decreasing strikes and decreasing premiums, this expected return went to 110k ytd gain by june, then 105k, and now after todays ultimate risk reduction - im down to 95k ytd gain if current bets go well by June. I can always start going back up in strike prices too once recovery happens and increase the ytd gain as well. But right now it’s protection mode in case this slide continues.

 

[wamcp]

So, here were my gains in 2023 on two brokerage accounts. I transferred from fidelity to tda in the middle of the year.

In fidelity in 2023 I had +$621,673 gain

In TDA in 2023, I had +$369,601 gain

YTD in 2024, I have +$34,524 realized gains and $389,490 unrealized gains in AMZN shares plus unrealized short put gains of +$63,787.

So a total of +$487,801 gains during 2024 so far.

I started January 1 2023 with $469K, and I have made total pretax profits since then of $1.479 million. That's a pretax return of 315% in a roughly 16 month period.
Of course all of this has resulted in a buttload of short term taxes, which I paid out earlier this month, and was painful to do so.

My primary strategy is leveraged put selling on various names, and buying heavy concentration into shares of a single company I have high confidence (last year 2023 it was SMCI, this year 2024 I am in AMZN. Of course, I really missed out on the huge SMCI runs YTD!!!)

Caveats: this is very dangerous (utilizing leverage), so don't copy this, and I only intend to do this for a short period of time before backing off. I was 100% correct that it was a new bullmarket throughout 2023 and 2024, which is why I deployed leverage. If you believe a bear market is upon us, always de-leverage! And using leverage is always exposing yourself to tail risks of black swan events, my account can go to zero overnight if some geopolitical catastrophe occurred.

 

[BoardingDoc]

So, here were my gains in 2023 on two brokerage accounts. I transferred from fidelity to tda in the middle of the year.

In fidelity in 2023 I had +$621,673 gain
View attachment 385882
In TDA in 2023, I had +$369,601 gain
View attachment 385879

YTD in 2024, I have +$34,524 realized gains and $389,490 unrealized gains in AMZN shares plus unrealized short put gains of +$63,787.
View attachment 385881
View attachment 385880
So a total of +$487,801 gains during 2024 so far.

I started January 1 2023 with $469K, and I have made total pretax profits since then of $1.479 million. That's a pretax return of 315% in a roughly 16 month period.
Of course all of this has resulted in a buttload of short term taxes, which I paid out earlier this month, and was painful to do so.

My primary strategy is leveraged put selling on various names, and buying heavy concentration into shares of a single company I have high confidence (last year 2023 it was SMCI, this year 2024 I am in AMZN. Of course, I really missed out on the huge SMCI runs YTD!!!)

Caveats: this is very dangerous (utilizing leverage), so don't copy this, and I only intend to do this for a short period of time before backing off. I was 100% correct that it was a new bullmarket throughout 2023 and 2024, which is why I deployed leverage. If you believe a bear market is upon us, always de-leverage! And using leverage is always exposing yourself to tail risks of black swan events, my account can go to zero overnight if some geopolitical catastrophe occurred.

I pity the person that reads this, tries to copy this and loses everything.

Congratulations on winning the lottery. Your risk aversion coefficient is staggeringly low. I'm glad it worked out for you here.

 

[Groove]

So, here were my gains in 2023 on two brokerage accounts. I transferred from fidelity to tda in the middle of the year.

In fidelity in 2023 I had +$621,673 gain
View attachment 385882
In TDA in 2023, I had +$369,601 gain
View attachment 385879

YTD in 2024, I have +$34,524 realized gains and $389,490 unrealized gains in AMZN shares plus unrealized short put gains of +$63,787.
View attachment 385881
View attachment 385880
So a total of +$487,801 gains during 2024 so far.

I started January 1 2023 with $469K, and I have made total pretax profits since then of $1.479 million. That's a pretax return of 315% in a roughly 16 month period.
Of course all of this has resulted in a buttload of short term taxes, which I paid out earlier this month, and was painful to do so.

My primary strategy is leveraged put selling on various names, and buying heavy concentration into shares of a single company I have high confidence (last year 2023 it was SMCI, this year 2024 I am in AMZN. Of course, I really missed out on the huge SMCI runs YTD!!!)

Caveats: this is very dangerous (utilizing leverage), so don't copy this, and I only intend to do this for a short period of time before backing off. I was 100% correct that it was a new bullmarket throughout 2023 and 2024, which is why I deployed leverage. If you believe a bear market is upon us, always de-leverage! And using leverage is always exposing yourself to tail risks of black swan events, my account can go to zero overnight if some geopolitical catastrophe occurred.

Incredible. You got gigantic cajones. Way to go! That's worthy of a WSB gains post on reddit, lol.

Why switch from Fidelity to TDA and not Schwab? I'm surprised you still have a working TDA account. All accounts are being migrated over to Schwab. Mine got switched last fall, probably right after you joined. I would have thought they wouldn't take new account transfer requests this late into the merger.

 

[wamcp]

Incredible. You got gigantic cajones. Way to go! That's worthy of a WSB gains post on reddit, lol.

Why switch from Fidelity to TDA and not Schwab? I'm surprised you still have a working TDA account. All accounts are being migrated over to Schwab. Mine got switched last fall, probably right after you joined. I would have thought they wouldn't take new account transfer requests this late into the merger.

I have a futures account and i heard they transition those kinds of users the very last.

I’m supposed to be moving to schwab next month:

 

[Apollyon]

I pity the person that reads this, tries to copy this and loses everything.

Congratulations on winning the lottery. Your risk aversion coefficient is staggeringly low. I'm glad it worked out for you here.

Like clockwork.

 

[GassYous]

I pity the person that reads this, tries to copy this and loses everything.

Congratulations on winning the lottery. Your risk aversion coefficient is staggeringly low. I'm glad it worked out for you here.

People who do it and lose don't post here, they post on wsb

 

[Splenda88]

So, here were my gains in 2023 on two brokerage accounts. I transferred from fidelity to tda in the middle of the year.

In fidelity in 2023 I had +$621,673 gain
View attachment 385882
In TDA in 2023, I had +$369,601 gain
View attachment 385879

YTD in 2024, I have +$34,524 realized gains and $389,490 unrealized gains in AMZN shares plus unrealized short put gains of +$63,787.
View attachment 385881
View attachment 385880
So a total of +$487,801 gains during 2024 so far.

I started January 1 2023 with $469K, and I have made total pretax profits since then of $1.479 million. That's a pretax return of 315% in a roughly 16 month period.
Of course all of this has resulted in a buttload of short term taxes, which I paid out earlier this month, and was painful to do so.

My primary strategy is leveraged put selling on various names, and buying heavy concentration into shares of a single company I have high confidence (last year 2023 it was SMCI, this year 2024 I am in AMZN. Of course, I really missed out on the huge SMCI runs YTD!!!)

Caveats: this is very dangerous (utilizing leverage), so don't copy this, and I only intend to do this for a short period of time before backing off. I was 100% correct that it was a new bullmarket throughout 2023 and 2024, which is why I deployed leverage. If you believe a bear market is upon us, always de-leverage! And using leverage is always exposing yourself to tail risks of black swan events, my account can go to zero overnight if some geopolitical catastrophe occurred.

Incredible!

What is your net worth?

You won the game.

Are you still working as a physician?

 

[wamcp]

Incredible!

What is your net worth?

You won the game.

Are you still working as a physician?

3.5 million, at 34 yo, we have 3 kids though so not planning to fully retire yet. Hard to feel comfortable with only $3.5M with potential child/college expenses, and then also having to buy health insurance if we both quit. Need to add maybe another million before we retire early

 

[Splenda88]

3.5 million, at 34 yo, we have 3 kids though so not planning to fully retire yet. Hard to feel comfortable with only $3.5M with potential child/college expenses, and then also having to buy health insurance if we both quit. Need to add maybe another million before we retire early

Thought it was > 5 mil. You should be able to call it a day before 40

 

[valianteffort]

I pity the person that reads this, tries to copy this and loses everything.

Congratulations on winning the lottery. Your risk aversion coefficient is staggeringly low. I'm glad it worked out for you here.

9/10 times using leverage to sell this many options will result in a big bloody red portfolio. Hats off to you OP for these trades. Needless to say I am very jealous I certainly don't have the cojones to swing options on leverage yet. Maybe one day.

 

[wamcp]

Thought it was > 5 mil. You should be able to call it a day before 40

Not after taxes and account taking a pretty big hit the past month, am down about a mil from ATH values

 

[wamcp]

9/10 times using leverage to sell this many options will result in a big bloody red portfolio. Hats off to you OP for these trades. Needless to say I am very jealous I certainly don't have the cojones to swing options on leverage yet. Maybe one day.

Yeah leverage over time should zero your account. Just have to pick and choose your timeframes…i.e timing the market.

Leverage held throughout all of 2022 would wipe you out
Leverage in 2023 to 2024 so far = bonanza

 

[Splenda88]

Not after taxes and account taking a pretty big hit the past month, am down about a mil from ATH values

We all have taken a big hit for the past 1-2 months.

You don't think 5-6 mil is enough for a family of 5 to retire on.

 

[gruemd]

jfc I was feeling decently about myself for increasing NW by 500k in my first 3 years out of residency with a stay at home spouse, IF I include my kids' 529s in the calculation, and a couple years older than you

 

[HemorrhagicShock]

I started January 1 2023 with $469K, and I have made total pretax profits since then of $1.479 million

Caveats: this is very dangerous (utilizing leverage), so don't copy this

Three things:

1. Incredibly impressive.

2. If stupidly and insanely dangerous, what gave you the conviction about these two particular tickers?

3. What about the market conditions in 2023 and 2024 made you confident in your bull thesis?

I want to learn from you because this all seems simpler (but way riskier) than what cyanide is doing haha!

 

[Apollyon]

I pity the person that reads this, tries to copy this and loses everything.

Congratulations on winning the lottery. Your risk aversion coefficient is staggeringly low. I'm glad it worked out for you here.

"Lottery" implies random occurrence with no skill. You calling it that implies some cognitive dissonance. I do have to admit that I've never heard "risk tolerance" called a "risk aversion coefficient".

 

[wamcp]

Three things:

1. Incredibly impressive.

2. If stupidly and insanely dangerous, what gave you the conviction about these two particular tickers?

3. What about the market conditions in 2023 and 2024 made you confident in your bull thesis?

I want to learn from you because this all seems simpler (but way riskier) than what cyanide is doing haha!

SMCI: picked it up at $160 in the spring 2023 to try to profit off AI mania on the back of NVDA’s performance and chatGPT craze that began december 2022. The valuation was so incredibly cheap relative to expected earnings/revenue growth. But alas missed out on the more explosive gains in 2024 after selling it.

AMZN: picked it up at $145 first week of January 2024. Reason is expected FCF growth over coming quarters. Capex spending and build out of the covid era is gone. AWS expected to reaccel.

Regarding market conditions- the market was worried about recession and inflation in 2022/2023. But. Recession never happened, macro data and earnings data were resilient throughout 2022. And inflation was coming down steadily. It was time to be a bull starting Jan 2023/end 2022.
Data still looking good in 2024.

 

[cyanide12345678]

So, here were my gains in 2023 on two brokerage accounts. I transferred from fidelity to tda in the middle of the year.

In fidelity in 2023 I had +$621,673 gain
View attachment 385882
In TDA in 2023, I had +$369,601 gain
View attachment 385879

YTD in 2024, I have +$34,524 realized gains and $389,490 unrealized gains in AMZN shares plus unrealized short put gains of +$63,787.
View attachment 385881
View attachment 385880
So a total of +$487,801 gains during 2024 so far.

I started January 1 2023 with $469K, and I have made total pretax profits since then of $1.479 million. That's a pretax return of 315% in a roughly 16 month period.
Of course all of this has resulted in a buttload of short term taxes, which I paid out earlier this month, and was painful to do so.

My primary strategy is leveraged put selling on various names, and buying heavy concentration into shares of a single company I have high confidence (last year 2023 it was SMCI, this year 2024 I am in AMZN. Of course, I really missed out on the huge SMCI runs YTD!!!)

Caveats: this is very dangerous (utilizing leverage), so don't copy this, and I only intend to do this for a short period of time before backing off. I was 100% correct that it was a new bullmarket throughout 2023 and 2024, which is why I deployed leverage. If you believe a bear market is upon us, always de-leverage! And using leverage is always exposing yourself to tail risks of black swan events, my account can go to zero overnight if some geopolitical catastrophe occurred.

Holy holy holy shiiiitttttt.

Damn impressive. Congratulations. I dont have half the balls that you have. Do you plan to de-risk at some point?

 

[cyanide12345678]

Not after taxes and account taking a pretty big hit the past month, am down about a mil from ATH values

YOU ARE DOWN A MILLION IN THIS 1 month from all time high?!?!???!?!

I’m down 26k and i can’t stop staring at the market. Even that’s been depressing.

Are you constantly worrying about the markets? I know i do. Do you feel constantly stressed about your positions? I sometimes do when I’m heavily concentrated in 1 or 2 positions that are single stocks.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Three things:

1. Incredibly impressive.

2. If stupidly and insanely dangerous, what gave you the conviction about these two particular tickers?

3. What about the market conditions in 2023 and 2024 made you confident in your bull thesis?

I want to learn from you because this all seems simpler (but way riskier) than what cyanide is doing haha!

We’re doing exactly the same thing.

He just has more balls than i do.

His position sizes are much bigger. I always hold a rainy day cash cushion of 80-100k in vusxx.

Plus his strikes are probably closer to the underlying prices - mine are usually very far away. The closer you are, the higher the premium.

But conceptually - he’s selling puts with leverage - aka naked puts.

But looks like his biggest win was straight up investing a very very large amount in 1 company. That takes balls. The smaller wins are from puts lol

 

[cyanide12345678]

SMCI: picked it up at $160 in the spring 2023 to try to profit off AI mania on the back of NVDA’s performance and chatGPT craze that began december 2022. The valuation was so incredibly cheap relative to expected earnings/revenue growth. But alas missed out on the more explosive gains in 2024 after selling it.

AMZN: picked it up at $145 first week of January 2024. Reason is expected FCF growth over coming quarters. Capex spending and build out of the covid era is gone. AWS expected to reaccel.

Regarding market conditions- the market was worried about recession and inflation in 2022/2023. But. Recession never happened, macro data and earnings data were resilient throughout 2022. And inflation was coming down steadily. It was time to be a bull starting Jan 2023/end 2022.
Data still looking good in 2024.

So what exactly are you doing?

how many days to expiration?

how far are you keeping your strikes? What probability of winning are you usually going for?

How much money are you keeping in margin maintenance excess to avoid any margin call?

Are you able to relax on a day where spy is negative 1-2 percent and your account is negative 30-50k?

Are you closing at 40-50 percent profit?

How are you salvaging your losing trades?

Do you avoid selling puts around earnings?

4 years ago, i posted my first ever post regarding selling puts. At that time, you had said a lot of wise words which i didnt even understand at that time. You were also one of the only few people who fundamentally supported the concept of selling puts and understood exactly what my post was about. So yeah… glad to see that you’re killing it.

 

[HemorrhagicShock]

We’re doing exactly the same thing.

......

But looks like his biggest win was straight up investing a very very large amount in 1 company. That takes balls. The smaller wins are from puts lol

Yea I should have been a little more clear. I was talking about his SCMI position as it seems like his naked puts are all smaller bets on positions outside of pure stock big bets on SMCI and AMZN.

Am I reading that first pic correctly? He had a total cumulative cost basis of 13.8 and proceeds of 14.2 for a realized gain of about $400k?

I assume that "W" next to those numbers means wash sales were baked into those figures?

Does that mean he was swinging in and out of pure stock positions? Or also selling naked puts on the underlying and this happens to be the total tally of all those options trades? @wamcp If it's the former, tell us how you approached that!