What are my chances?

[EM Applicant 2015]

Hello,

I would like some advice on my situation.

School: US News Top 40
Clerkship grades: All pass. (we only give out 15% honors, and unfortunately I'm staying above average which isn't good enough for H's). I believe I can honor my EM rotations. Class rank is bottom 1/3.
Step 1: 235
Step 2: Taking in October (can't take sooner due to EM rotations) - I think I can get between 240-255.
EM clerkships: I have 3 months of EM clerkships in my 4th year
Preferred location: South or west - Texas/California area, but I'm willing to go anywhere

How many programs should I apply to and what are my chances?

I'm thinking I should apply to 50 programs? I know the regions I'm looking at are more competitive. I will also apply in the midwest.

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[HooliganSnail]

Chances look as good as anyone

Good Luck.

 

[littlejuan]

It's hard to say without EM grades or Step 2 but you should be fine for EM in general. Texas and California are very hard to match to if you are not from the area. You should definitely do away/audition rotations in those locations if you can.

 

[Killa Beez MD]

I think 50 sounds like a good number.

 

[The White Coat Investor]

93%. Apply to 30.

Tough to say without your EM grades.

 

[BoardingDoc]

I'm staying above average which isn't good enough for H's
...
Class rank is bottom 1/3.

Does not compute.

That said, I agree with what everyone else has written. Without your EM grades or step 2 score it's hard to tell. Step 1 is decent, certainly not hurting, but not helping much. IDK if your school does HP or not, but if you have all P's and no HPs, that's going to hurt you a bit. That said, if you honor your EM rotations, get good letters and do well on Step 2, there's no reason why you shouldn't match well.

Work hard during your EM clerkships.

 

[EM Applicant 2015]

Thanks for all the input everyone. I realize it's difficult to say without the rest of my app but thanks for the advice.

I do feel like I can do 240-250 on Step 2 and also do well on my EM clerkships.

Does not compute.

That said, I agree with what everyone else has written. Without your EM grades or step 2 score it's hard to tell. Step 1 is decent, certainly not hurting, but not helping much. IDK if your school does HP or not, but if you have all P's and no HPs, that's going to hurt you a bit. That said, if you honor your EM rotations, get good letters and do well on Step 2, there's no reason why you shouldn't match well.

Work hard during your EM clerkships.

Yeah, med school has been a rough go for me. I guess I have to apply to like 50-60 places. I'm flexible on the map. Doing the best I can on these clerkships but it just hasn't worked out so far. Above average on all the clerkships nets me bottom 1/3. For example, some people are gunning on OB/GYN then they honor that and not much else (they will probably be around 50th percentile). Then the people on Surgery do the same thing and don't honor much else. Then 10% of my class is pretty brilliant... they honor everything. I'm not making excuses, just haven't been very good at this med school thing so far.

Thanks for the advice. Looks like I have my work cut out for me.

 

[scummie]

It's hard to say without EM grades or Step 2 but you should be fine for EM in general. Texas and California are very hard to match to if you are not from the area. You should definitely do away/audition rotations in those locations if you can.

California I agree with, but Texas? Know someone that matched there with absolutely no ties or auditions whatsoever. Obviously that's n=1, but this is the first time I'm hearing that Texas is hard to match into. It's not Cali or New York, that's for sure.

 

[hoot504]

White Coat Investor isn't too far off.

According to Charting Outcomes 2011 (most recent edition), applicants with your Step 1 score had a ~95% chance of matching into EM (this doesn't take into account any other parts of their application). That is as concrete of a number as anyone else is going to be able to give you. If I may go out on a limb I'd take a guess that the 5% with your score who didn't match likely shot themselves in the foot with poor application choices (i.e. only applied to CA, ranked 4 programs, etc.) or had terrible SLORs, or both.

Based on the data it's your game to lose at this point. Tick all the remaining boxes and follow the advice mentioned previously (high step 2, good audition rotations) in order to match at the best program possible.

 

[littlejuan]

California I agree with, but Texas? Know someone that matched there with absolutely no ties or auditions whatsoever. Obviously that's n=1, but this is the first time I'm hearing that Texas is hard to match into. It's not Cali or New York, that's for sure.

Oh, well, maybe. It is just what I heard, but I guess it could be wrong. I never even thought about applying there. Cali and NYC for sure can be tough.

 

[Iamthewarthog]

Oh, well, maybe. It is just what I heard, but I guess it could be wrong. I never even thought about applying there. Cali and NYC for sure can be tough.

I matched in TX at my #1 choice (and got tons of interviews) with no ties and no aways in the state. Actually, I'm from CA, went to a CA med school, have strong family ties to CA, and had above average numbers; and I still felt like I didn't have as much love from CA programs as TX programs. IMO the two are definitely on separate planes (which is surprising, because apparently TX is glorious to practice in).