Why Australia is the next big thing

[shan564]

I just put up a post on my blog called "Australia: The Next Big Thing".

http://www.globallyrational.com/

If it's not April 3 anymore by the time you read this, just scroll down to the April 3 entry (I write something new every day).

It's not specifically related to medical school, but medical school is what inspired me to write it. I think it might be helpful for anybody considering going to Australia temporarily (for school) or permanently. Personally, I think there's a very good chance that I'll end up staying there after med school, based on everything I've read... and I think you should have the same information before you make a decision.

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[giantaxon]

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[lyndal]

Interesting stuff Shan!!! Thanks for posting

 

[FunkyR]

And...

Australia has one of the highest income tax rates in the Western world - a 45% top marginal bracket at $150,000 (it used to be 47% at $80000 a few years ago)
Half of Australia is in drought
Australia's workers unions are too powerful and hold the government effectively by their b*lls
Australia has a terrible history of treating the indigenous people - they still complain with their annual hundreds of millions of dollars of funding
Australian hospitals are underfunded
Australia has terrible environmental pollution policies
Australia has the highest rate of teen suicide and melanoma in the world
Once Australia runs out of minerals their goes one of the major exports of the country, they'll have to rely on their drought stricken farms instead










but... I love living here and wouldnt live anywhere else

 

[shan564]

I know this doesn't directly address all of the issues, but here's my shot at it:

Australia has one of the highest income tax rates in the Western world - a 45% top marginal bracket at $150,000 (it used to be 47% at $80000 a few years ago)
They also have universal healthcare, which accounts for a lot of the difference between US taxes and Aus taxes. The cost of living is also lower. The tax rate on the top bracket in the US is 35%... not a monumental difference.

Half of Australia is in drought
Don't move to that half.

Australia's workers unions are too powerful and hold the government effectively by their b*lls
I'll concede that one, but power struggles have a tendency to work themselves out in the long run.

Australia has a terrible history of treating the indigenous people - they still complain with their annual hundreds of millions of dollars of funding
They're working hard on fixing that.

Australian hospitals are underfunded
I'd expect that to go away with a larger population.

Australia has terrible environmental pollution policies
That's changing rapidly everywhere in the world; I wouldn't expect Australia to be any different.

Australia has the highest rate of teen suicide and melanoma in the world
Wow, can't argue with that one. I didn't know that, and I definitely am not knowledgeable enough to know the reason.

Once Australia runs out of minerals their goes one of the major exports of the country, they'll have to rely on their drought stricken farms instead
They are forming a good educated core population, so I think it will be a much more gradual change than you suggest.

 

[shan564]

Very interesting blog and ideas. That list you provide is mighty impressive. I always knew Australia was highly regarded internationally but seeing that list really demonstrates that nicely.

I don't agree with everything on your blog, but I do agree that Australia will continue to see great things in the 21st century. Its potential for even further development is very great.

Personally, as a Canadian I think Australia is much more in line with being the type of place I could live and be happy. I would be honored to have the opportunity to contribute to Australian society.

Thanks for the comments. Honestly, I don't even agree with all of the opinions on my blog... the purpose is mostly just to get people thinking about some issues that they don't often think about.

 

[JoeNamaMD]

Australia is a great place to live but the idea that it will one day have the same status as the US is silly. The next two major Superpowers are the European Union and China. Some people say India but highly doubt that given the immense poverty(despite economic growth only a small fraction of the population has benefited) and shoddy infrastructure in that country.The EU is different in that it is a multinational entity, China is going to become the dominant economic power in Asia.
The new PM is strongly pro-China and speaks fluent Mandarin, its obvious to anyone that Australia's economic prosperity is tied to China and other Asian nations.

As far as cost of living is concerned Australia is fairly expensive, I have never had money fly out of my hand as fast as it did in Sydney, and as far as the Australian government "working hard" to mend ties with Aborginals, maybe the new PM will do something.

 

[ChrisJ37]

Hey I am a medical student, will be graduating in 6 months time. I plan to migrate to Australia. What should I have or do, to enable me to practise over there? Your reply would be much appreciated.

 

[shan564]

Australia is a great place to live but the idea that it will one day have the same status as the US is silly. The next two major Superpowers are the European Union and China. Some people say India but highly doubt that given the immense poverty(despite economic growth only a small fraction of the population has benefited) and shoddy infrastructure in that country.The EU is different in that it is a multinational entity, China is going to become the dominant economic power in Asia.
The new PM is strongly pro-China and speaks fluent Mandarin, its obvious to anyone that Australia's economic prosperity is tied to China and other Asian nations.

I didn't say they'd have the same status as the US... I just said that they're following the same pattern as the US did. It will be interesting to see how the world economy pans out in the next 40-50 years, but that's outside the scope of this forum.

As far as cost of living is concerned Australia is fairly expensive, I have never had money fly out of my hand as fast as it did in Sydney, and as far as the Australian government "working hard" to mend ties with Aborginals, maybe the new PM will do something.

I was comparing it to San Francisco and Honolulu... in San Francisco, for instance, I know a person who bought a studio condo in a basement for $400k.

 

[JoeNamaMD]

Well in the next 15 years or so China and the European Union will largely eclipse the United States in economic power. A few years back it was the EU that was supposed to fall into obscurity while the US was predicted to survive against the Asian economic tsunami, how GW Bush and stupid *****s who voted for him screwed that up is beyond comprehension. In the next 30 to 40 years India will become another major player in the world economy right now its still very embryonic over there. So far China has been more successful than India at lifting their population out of poverty, I think one third of China is considered middle class while only ten percent for India. Any developed nation needs a large and stable middle class to exploit in order to be a stable society. Middle classes will grow to a point in both China and India that those nations will eventually no longer be third world. So by mid century much of the world economy will be dominated by old world nations in Europe and Asia. Australia will benefit handsomely from this reordering of the world economic order especially since Rudd is getting into bed with the Chindians, he understands Mandarin and should also learn Hindi and German.
The United States is the one most poised to fall into irrelevance, the credit crunch in the US is the last straw that is finally ending the US Dollar's status as the world reserve currency. What happens when you spend more money than you earn? You go to the poorhouse, that is what the US has done for nearly four decades, now that the ability to recycle dollars is going to be limited a more modest way of life awaits the US.
I am from San Francisco, I know the cost of living is insanely expensive, so is downtown Sydney. I live in Queensland which is generally cheap. Inner Melbourne is pricey, but the suburbs are fair priced.

A link to an article about the country that puts food on the tables of Australia:
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2006/s1689868.htm

 

[shan564]

Well in the next 15 years or so China and the European Union will largely eclipse the United States in economic power. A few years back it was the EU that was supposed to fall into obscurity while the US was predicted to survive against the Asian economic tsunami, how GW Bush and stupid *****s who voted for him screwed that up is beyond comprehension. In the next 30 to 40 years India will become another major player in the world economy right now its still very embryonic over there. So far China has been more successful than India at lifting their population out of poverty, I think one third of China is considered middle class while only ten percent for India. Any developed nation needs a large and stable middle class to exploit in order to be a stable society. Middle classes will grow to a point in both China and India that those nations will eventually no longer be third world. So by mid century much of the world economy will be dominated by old world nations in Europe and Asia. Australia will benefit handsomely from this reordering of the world economic order especially since Rudd is getting into bed with the Chindians, he understands Mandarin and should also learn Hindi and German.
The United States is the one most poised to fall into irrelevance, the credit crunch in the US is the last straw that is finally ending the US Dollar's status as the world reserve currency. What happens when you spend more money than you earn? You go to the poorhouse, that is what the US has done for nearly four decades, now that the ability to recycle dollars is going to be limited a more modest way of life awaits the US.
I am from San Francisco, I know the cost of living is insanely expensive, so is downtown Sydney. I live in Queensland which is generally cheap. Inner Melbourne is pricey, but the suburbs are fair priced.

I agree wholeheartedly... I actually wrote about this a few days ago on my blog. China, India, the US, and the EU have the four largest populations in the world and that's why they'll have four of the strongest economies... now that the US is making so many mistakes, the other three will probably pass them up.

After the US, the next few (in terms of population) are Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria... none of those countries have enough educated people or enough capitalistic strength to challenge the first four (I'll say that despite the fact that I was born in Pakistan and am still a Pakistani citizen).

I think we'll also see the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Oman) get a lot of economic power. Even though their combined population is only 40 million, they're getting richer and richer by the day... and they're attracting immigrants like crazy as they get increasingly more Westernized. They already have a trade surplus of almost a trillion dollars, and that surplus is expected to go up to over $3 trillion in 10 years.

Anyway, back to the point... I think Australia will benefit a great deal from the eastward shift of the world economy. If they can amalgamate enough immigrants to become a significant part of the world population, their future will be looking food.

 

[Precious sun]

Hi,

Would be glad if someone can share ADC theory study material.

Mail[email protected]

 

[JoeNamaMD]

Well, Australia's new PM is very Asia focused, John Howard was also Asia focused as well. Most people in Australia know that the country's future lies in having good ties with Asia, after all the world runs on the golden rule.

The problem with the USA is the leadership and American elites, they implement policies that only benefit themselves while weakening the middle class, after all, its America's middle class that has been the core of the USA for years, and the reason for its success and stability. These days both political parties, Republican and Democrat, are selling the middle class off. I would say Canada would be better off than the USA, it already is so far. I think regular middle class working Americans are decent and likable people but the leadership and the elites are not, especially the religious amen corner that brainwashes so many people there. On the economic front, the constantly diminishing value of the US Dollar means the USA's ability to influence world events through Dollar Diplomacy is disappearing, a strong dollar also sustains the military, so both US political and military power will decline sharply over the next couple of decades.

Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia, still have serious internal problems that will prevent them from becoming major economic players in the near term. Brazil is one nation that is going to be on its way up in this century. Its one of the few energy independent nations on the planet. While its fairly poor right now, things are going to change drastically. But most of the positive development is going to be focused on Continental Europe and Asia.

Indonesia has been seen as a potential threat to Australia, I guess it was smart for the new PM to bring Australia closer to China, since that nation is going to become the stabilizing force of Asia.

 

[EuroPhysician]

Australia is caught between pleasing two world powers, China and the USA. In the near future Australia will be caught between the European Union and China. On one side Australia is culturally far closer to Europe and the US than to China, but the rapidly growing Chinese economy is something that Australia cannot ignore.

With a scant population of only 20 million, no real military power or any kind of industry, its a minnow in sea of sharks. The Chinese shark is the one most likely to gulp the Australian minnow, it also could be the Indonesian one. Considering the fact that the USA is guaranteed to lose influence in the Pacific region to China and Japan over the next ten years, this is a very real possibility.

 

[redshifteffect]

Australia has one of the highest income tax rates in the Western world - a 45% top marginal bracket at $150,000 (it used to be 47% at $80000 a few years ago)

LOL and it's still less then Canada.

 

[shan564]

Australia has one of the highest income tax rates in the Western world - a 45% top marginal bracket at $150,000 (it used to be 47% at $80000 a few years ago)

LOL and it's still less then Canada.

Ours is 35% in the highest bracket, and we don't have features like universal healthcare to boast about. Also, they manage to boast some incredible internationally-recognized public universities and some other state-sponsored features.

 

[EuroPhysician]

Honestly if you compare Australia's social service system to those in Europe like Germany, the United Kingdom, Netherlands, Belgium, etc. its not that great. Those countries actually have lower tax rates than Australia as well. I was surprised that Germany has lower tax rates than Australia, the other interesting thing is that Germany has made massive investments all across Australia. The Netherlands is another big investor, in fact, the Dutch own Brisbane Airport.

 

[shan564]

Yeah, I think part of the reason for the high tax rate is that they have less people among which to distribute fixed costs such as roads, etc. Their universities are also top-class when compared with the rest of the world (per capita).

 

[EuroPhysician]

The best medical schools outside of the US are in Western Europe, mostly Germany, France, Sweden, Switzerland, Belgium, and the UK. Many EU nations now surpass the US in technological and scientific research.

 

[BlackNDecker]

Great thread...especially on the sociopolitical front.

Some thoughts/counterpoints:

1) No denying the asian markets will dominate the coming century, however, China has yet to "stand up" and let the world know how far they're willing to cast their net. They've failed to control N. Korean nuclear proliferation and their underwhelming response when the 2004 tsunami disaster hit their own backyard underscores China's reluctance to "assume the position." Historically, China has been a very closed, isolated country...and so far, it is their economy that is carrying the big stick. While China does like to flex its military strength from time to time, I'm not convinced they will be as influential (i.e. imperialistic) as the British or us (the Americans) have been the past 2 centuries. Granted, there will likely be a (silent) conflict over Taiwan within the next 10-15 years which may very well be the symbolic "passing of the torch."

2) Russia is not going anywhere. Still bruised from losing the cold war, Russia will not go quietly into that good night. New alliances are being formed on the persian and asian peninsulas, the counter balance, if you will, to NATO (aka the US, Britain, and Australia). Don't be surprised as Russia, China, and Iran become the strangest of bed fellows.

3) India has many problems and is not ready for prime time. They will continue to serve as a destination for "health care" vacations, especially as Americans are already accustomed to having much of their health care delivered by Indians. Tech Support/Software development will be king here... Intel and India will share more in common than the first two letters of their name.

4) European Union, a super power...ok, I have to laugh a little. 12 months ago people were asking "where's Europe?" There is no denying their collective economy is bristling with growth, however, the surging Euro continues to ignite record inflation throughout Europe. A supercharged currency is best for filling your shopping bags with "cheap" American goods (Thank you, and please come again), the reverse is true when you're trying to buy food and pay your electric bill.
Europe will never, ever, ever, ever...ever be proactive on the world stage(History will repeat itself, unfortunately). The disparate countries are so different in ideology that the EU can barely govern itself much less the Arabian peninsula and African continent(http://euobserver.com/7/25924). They will continue to be a mini-UN.

Lastly, nationalism is surging in Europe. The side effect is the failure to incorporate, or encourage assimilation, of muslim immigrants into Europe. With dramatic consequences, as seen in France recently. The Netherlands have also been having much pubicized difficulty on this issue as well. This will hamper the EU's ability to influence the middle east.

5) Brazil is the one to bet on... Manufacturing base, cheap labor, extensive natural resources.

6) Australia, a great place to live...yes. Future force to be reckoned with...ummm, no. Do not confuse the two.

7)America:

The problem with the USA is the leadership and American elites, they implement policies that only benefit themselves while weakening the middle class, after all, its America's middle class that has been the core of the USA for years, and the reason for its success and stability. These days both political parties, Republican and Democrat, are selling the middle class off.

Very slanted but I will grant you much is true. The Washington "elite" no longer bare resemblance to the average American. The middle class is being sacrificed for "big business." But, the middle class is not blameless...the writing has been on the wall for decades: We are no longer a manufacturing society. Blue collar workers shoulder much of the blame for not pursuing advanced degrees. Where are the engineers?

The sad, sick fact is that we (USA) are no longer a productive society...we are now a consumptive society.

2/3, wait...let me spell it out for maximum effect, TWO-THIRDS of our economy is consumer spending. George Bush's economic stimulus package hinges on one simple caveat, if you don't go out and blow the check the whole plan is a wash!! In plain english, buying $h!t is all we're good for!!! The other ONE-THIRD of our economy is primarily composed of the service industry. This balance has worked out quite well since the 1970s, but as our manufacturing/tech sector evaporates this becomes a tenuous balancing act. The service industry caters to the upper class (Docs, Lawyers, PhDs, Captains of Industry, Movie stars, Pro Athletes), however if the trickle from the top dries up the majority of Americans in the service industry can no longer go and blow their paychecks at Best Buy or pay their mortgage...thus consumer spending dries up...thus the economy contracts.

It is sad that so many Americans live in debt that it is considered a "fact of life." Equally sad, as a result of living in debt (i.e. no capital) the largest investment the overwhelming majority of Americans will ever make is in their home. What happens when your retirement hinges on your ability to sell your home and use the equity to fund your golden years? This has been fine and dandy for 50 years, but not now...

On the economic front, the constantly diminishing value of the US Dollar means the USA's ability to influence world events through Dollar Diplomacy is disappearing, a strong dollar also sustains the military, so both US political and military power will decline sharply over the next couple of decades.

Fascinating and very insightful. I do not believe we will implode as violently as the Soviet Union did. We will continue to influence the world as much with the dollar as we will with British/American culture. Hip Hop anyone? Although, I believe if the blighted muslim youth in Europe can find their voice, they could have a profound impact on the world's culture.

As English has helped streamline much of communication throughout the world, so does a common currency for commerce. It would be silly for developing nations to suddenly start teaching elementary students Mandarin chinese. English will continue to be the common denominator. And the world's economy is too far tangled up in green (i.e. dollars)...for better or worse. True the dollar is weak, but this has happened multiple times in the past...with no great effect. The ebb and flow will continue. And our debt? As long as the world continues to fund our misadventures (i.e. the war in Iraq and Afghanistan), the spending spree will continue.

8)GCC:

I think we'll also see the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Oman) get a lot of economic power. Even though their combined population is only 40 million, they're getting richer and richer by the day... and they're attracting immigrants like crazy as they get increasingly more Westernized. They already have a trade surplus of almost a trillion dollars, and that surplus is expected to go up to over $3 trillion in 10 years.

Very interesting... UAE has done very well for themselves, they see the future and it is NOT spelled "O-I-L." They have reinvested the oil profits in tourism. The problem will be if they become too reliant on their service industry: a large natural disaster or frequent terror attacks could have a profound negative impact on their economy. The Saudi royal family appears to be more concerned with maintaining their palaces than modernizing their country. The coming conflict between the GCC and the fanaticism of Syria, Jordan, and Iran will continue to heat up.

The loss of a powerful Iraq has been the most disastrous consequence of the war...Iraq was the Yin to Iran's Yang. Iran is licking their lips at our anticipated withdrawl. If they destabilize the world oil market (by wreaking havoc on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc. after our pull out from the region) they could plunge the USA (and Europe) into a full on depression.

Color me Red, White, & Blue...but I believe the increasing clash between "modern" western cultures and islamic extremism will be the pivotal issue of the coming century. I am curious as to how China will deal with its first major terrorist attack? (Tibetan dissent could result in a future breeding ground for Al Qaeda). Will the EU step up?laugh:, sorry can't help it) Will Iran get the nuke?

Thoughts??

 

[BlackNDecker]

Well in the next 15 years or so China and the European Union will largely eclipse the United States in economic power. A few years back it was the EU that was supposed to fall into obscurity while the US was predicted to survive against the Asian economic tsunami, how GW Bush and stupid *****s who voted for him screwed that up is beyond comprehension.

As dramatic as the last 8 years have been, so too could the next 8 years. I think the USA can be set back on track as surely, although slowly and painfully, as we were knocked off course.

The United States is the one most poised to fall into irrelevance, the credit crunch in the US is the last straw that is finally ending the US Dollar's status as the world reserve currency. What happens when you spend more money than you earn? You go to the poorhouse, that is what the US has done for nearly four decades, now that the ability to recycle dollars is going to be limited a more modest way of life awaits the US.

Why? China's growth cannot continue without a fat, consumptive US. China will keep us propped up for the next several decades. If the US can get serious about reinventing itself (science/tech, alternative energy, insert next great idea here) then the future is bright.

I think we will transition into another dual, superpower stalemate (China vs. US)...followed by the emergence of developing economies and the slow gradual decline (i.e. Irrelevance) of the US. Much the way that Britain's flame dimmed rather than extinguished.

 

[EuroPhysician]

It will be interesting to see how the world shapes up, but its pretty much a given that the American era is over. Reality check, inflation in the EU is actually lower than the US, I spend time on both sides of the Atlantic, in general the US is actually more expensive for many things. I could not believe what a loaf of bread costs in the States, it was shocking.

China is also now looking at the EU as an alternative to ailing America, the Chinese would love to collect appreciating Euros in their coffers.

You mentioned the EU as a non entity, but at the end of the post asked if the EU will step up? Very possible. Will Iran go nuclear? Very possible too considering the US drawdown in Iraq is imminent.

 

[shan564]

Will Iran go nuclear? Very possible too considering the US drawdown in Iraq is imminent.

I think Ahmedinejad might be intentionally self-destructive. I wrote about this on my blog yesterday (by the way, it's moved to http://www.globallyrational.com/), here's the link. I usually lean to the left when it comes to foreign policy, but I also know a lot about the nuclear sciences... he's working on nukes and he's doing a crappy job of trying to hide it.

 

[BlackNDecker]

First off, EuroPhysician...I don't mean to single you out, but you raise some interesting points:

China is also now looking at the EU as an alternative to ailing America, the Chinese would love to collect appreciating Euros in their coffers.

This would just be bad economics. Buy low, sell high. If anything, now would the best time to collect piles of greenbacks, then when the eventual correction occurs they could be sold for profit. Simple economics.

It will be interesting to see how the world shapes up, but its pretty much a given that the American era is over.

The anti-American sentiment is implicit in this statement. But honestly, it makes no sense. China is 4th in terms of world GDP. I agree that their time is coming...but the growth of China doesn't equate to the crumbling of America. The US economy grew at a "strong" 3% last year....especially strong when you compare that with other developed nations, including those of the EU.

Children grow faster than adults, as such, it is not surprising or terrifying that China is experiencing rapid growth as well as growing pains.

The media has fabricated "a recession" over here and it is all you see on the liberal news organizations. Fact is, the economy has grown, albeit more slowly than anticipated, each and every month since the words recession were first mentioned. Recession is 6 months (2 quarters) of negative growth(GDP).

I believe, maybe pessimistically, that an eventual restructuring of the world may not pan out as simply as you propose. I continue to believe that a major shake-up in the persian gulf (already set in motion with the crumbling of Iraq) will have a more unpredictable role on world events. One cannot begin to predict the consequence of an oil drought on the world's economy...

Furthermore, many believe that the next great war will be fought over fresh water, not oil.(http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/01/990106075344.htm). You can go a week without driving, the same cannot be said of water....
If a future war over natural resources comes, I know which of the "Big 5" I'd bet on, The stars and bars baby!

Reality check, inflation in the EU is actually lower than the US, I spend time on both sides of the Atlantic, in general the US is actually more expensive for many things. I could not believe what a loaf of bread costs in the States, it was shocking.

I have never bought bread on the other side of the Atlantic so can't comment. The reason for much of the rising food cost stems from the "Global warming" hoax: (http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Widescale+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm)...radical leftists have scared many into believing biofuels are the answer, and many want to be GREEN because it's the "in" thing. The high cost of Corn is contributing to the high price of staple goods (http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?ch=specialsections&sc=biofuels&id=18173&a=), arguably more so than the weak dollar. Also, the contribution of the rising cost of oil is undeniable and is far outpacing the rate of inflation.

Many EU nations now surpass the US in technological and scientific research.

More anti-american rhetoric. How can you even measure such a statment. In dollars funded?!? I would laugh you out of the room.... In number of working labs? Again, ludicrous...

 

[BlackNDecker]

I think Ahmedinejad might be intentionally self-destructive. I wrote about this on my blog yesterday (by the way, it's moved to http://www.globallyrational.com/), here's the link. I usually lean to the left when it comes to foreign policy, but I also know a lot about the nuclear sciences... he's working on nukes and he's doing a crappy job of trying to hide it.

Israel will NEVER allow Iran to complete a nuclear warhead...the size of Israel's balls cannot be measured with standard orchiometry beads.

 

[EuroPhysician]

The US is no longer technological king according to this study:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6502725.stm

It is really hard to predict when the US Dollar will recover, most experts see that it may recover in the future, but predicting that has become difficult because the Euro competes with the Dollar as a reserve currency, its true the Dollar has fallen in the past but it really had no competition in the past either. It is increasingly becoming a part of world currency reserves. China is now diversifying its massive currency reserves to a basket of currencies and gold, the Euro is among its biggest positions. Many oil producing nations are also taking a liking to the Euro and other instruments of finance. Even the Australian and Canadian Dollar are now going to have their day in the sun. Honestly if you were an investor who wanted to safeguard wealth, do you want something that has consistently lost value or gained it? A lot of people do not see a bottom for the US Dollar yet, and its not anti-Americanism, its simple economics, the US is a net debtor nation today, it used to be a net creditor in the past. Unless the US changes this, the dollar will continue to diminish in value. Especially after hearing George Soros's and Alan Greenspan's comments regarding the Dollar, it does not look good.

Israel is not showing the same level of fortitude it had in the past regarding its enemies, if it really was going to stop Iran, it would have done it long ago. Right now Israel is moving closer to Europe for help, kind of a strange bedfellow, the EU and Israel, considering Europe's history towards Jews.

From what I gather, all the Christian right wing loonies in the US like John Hagee, Gerald Flurry and the lot are banking on Iran becoming a nuclear power and Europe, the revived "Holy Roman Empire" as they call it, battling Iran in a apocalyptic war, otherwise known as the Rapture. Check out the Philadelphia Trumpet and other Born Again Christian news weeklies, some of them though are bit too over the top.

I do think the main conflict between the West and Islam will involve Europe against Iran and its satellites not the current White House War on Terror.

A link to the Philadelphia Trumpet: www.thetrumpet.com

Many other Born Again churches are talking about a similar shift in world politics as described by Gerald Flurry's Trumpet newsletter. Mr. Flurry is as American as they come, he's also strongly Republican, and many articles he has written seem to criticize Obama.

Europeans are definitely waking up to the threat from Islam encroaching upon Europe, this will be the unifying force behind the many nations of the EU.

 

[BlackNDecker]

Very interesting stuff...and I've thoroughly enjoyed the international input on this. This is really broadening my horizons...

Couple counterpoints:

Israel is not showing the same level of fortitude it had in the past regarding its enemies, if it really was going to stop Iran, it would have done it long ago. Right now Israel is moving closer to Europe for help, kind of a strange bedfellow, the EU and Israel, considering Europe's history towards Jews.

This didn't get a whole lot of publicity, but I think it shows that Israel is still as tenacious and preemptive as ever. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2461421.ece

Honestly if you were an investor who wanted to safeguard wealth, do you want something that has consistently lost value or gained it?

Good points on currency reserves in a historical perspective. However, as to the above quote, I can't think of any commodity that has consistently gained or lost value....not even gold or land. Seems everything goes through cycles of revaluation and devaluation...

Experts estimate the Dow might continue to fall as low as the 9,000 or 10,000 mark(http://www2.nysun.com/article/66268) ...this is when I'm gonna start sinking some cash in the markets.

From what I gather, all the Christian right wing loonies in the US like John Hagee, Gerald Flurry and the lot are banking on Iran becoming a nuclear power and Europe, the revived "Holy Roman Empire" as they call it, battling Iran in a apocalyptic war, otherwise known as the Rapture.

I think as little of the Christian right as I do the radical islamic fundamentalists...it is unfortunate that the Christian right has as much power as it does here in the states. Stem cell research has suffered immensely. They are also attempting to over rule Roe v. Wade(legal right to abortion).

Also, to rise to power within the Republican party you pretty much had to have given your first born to the evangelical christian movement....it is no surprise they are critical of Obama, or any Democrat for that matter...the democratic party is the "liberal" counter to the ultra-conservative christians...as I'm sure you're aware.

I do think the main conflict between the West and Islam will involve Europe against Iran and its satellites not the current White House War on Terror.

Interesting. What is the European view of the "War on Terror?" The view in the states is that Europe is soft and not willing to shed the blood. I understand the reluctance to help in Iraq, but why is it so hard for the US to garner support in Afghanistan

Also, I thought the jihadists mainly hate the USA. I was not aware that Europe was so embroiled....?

 

[BlackNDecker]

The US is no longer technological king according to this study:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6502725.stm

Hmmm, definitely disconcerting....this is reflective of the last 8 years of conservative restraint via the Bush White House and Republican Congress.

 

[EuroPhysician]

Europe and Islam go way back, like nearly a millennium, look up the Holy Roman Empire, Charlemagne and the Crusades, quite a lot of stuff went on between Europe and the Islamic world. Modern Europe has been strongly left wing for a long time, but since 9-11 the political right has made substantial progress. Europe is now taking a more aggressive role in the Middle East. Its stance towards Iran is more hawkish than the USA's fyi. The NIE that the US published confirmed this. Europeans were dumbfounded by it, most European leaders think Iran has some nefarious intentions for its nuclear program.

Much of the USA's fight against Islamic terror started after the 1972 Munich tragedy, oh correct me, the real US involvement against Islamic terror started in the 80's under Reagan, but Islamic terrorism as we know it started during the Munich Olympics in 1972.

 

[BlackNDecker]

Very interesting...thanks for the helpful responses.

Again though, I ask...why have the other NATO countries been so reluctant to help root out Al Qaeda in Afghanistan? What is the general feeling in Europe on the war in Afghanistan? Or is it difficult for Europeans to make a distinction between the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq?

 

[FunkyR]

Ours is 35% in the highest bracket, and we don't have features like universal healthcare to boast about. Also, they manage to boast some incredible internationally-recognized public universities and some other state-sponsored features.

What income bracket does that highest tax rate come in?

Another way of looking at it on a personal level:
10% extra tax, depending on the tax brackets, could mean an extra $5000-12000 for around $150k (ofcourse dependant on how much you earn). $10000 x 35 years of career = $350k for your healthcare.
$10000/year = $5k a year in private health insurance for the rest of your life.
$10000/year invested wisely would could also be used for the above.

Ofcourse allowing every citizen 'free' health care and social security benefits is good for the people of that nation. Every system has it's advantages and also disadvantages - the number of people I see that are rorting the system is shocking. Makes me quite annoyed that my tax money is paying off these people who lie to take advantage of the social security/health care and to support the dole bludgers that dont want to get a job because they have the attitude that the government will support them.

 

[shan564]

It's not just the healthcare... their overall government programs seem to be better, according to all international studies. I'd rather have higher taxes and better roads/schools than lower taxes and better cars/houses.

 

[JoeNamaMD]

Social services in Australia are generally better, most other Western countries like those in Canada and Europe also have better social services than in the US. Some people may or may not like this system though. To really get a feel of what its like spend a year here and then make a judgment. When you get here you will find that Australia is far from perfect, although compared to much of the world is a great place to live. A lot of the North Americans I have met here, particularly Canadians complain about Oz. Its funny that a lot of the Americans I met here, including myself seem to like it.

 

[shan564]

Well, nobody is "perfect" and everybody "complains", but we'll see how things go. I know I'd sure as hell rather be there than in Antigua.

 

[Doctor]

Interesting thread... while I don't think Australia will ever be as significant to the world as the United States or the European Union (or even China or India), I think that is more a function of its small population than anything else. In that way, it is similar to Canada.

One thing to keep in mind is that even though Australia's population keeps growing (130,000 legal immigrants in 2007), the United States adds a lot MORE people (1.3 million legal immigrants in 2007) each and every year. So even though Australia is growing, it is falling further behind.

It's certainly possible to be "small and successful", look at Norway for example (NOT part of the European Union either)... but I'm not sure that it's possible to be the "next big thing" when the country is so tiny. Even the United Kingdom is far too small to be a superpower in the modern world, and the UK is 3x larger than Australia.

 

[EuroPhysician]

Australia has a shortage the one vital resource necessary for all life, water. Despite being surrounded by ocean, over 60 percent of the country is useless desert, much else is semiarid and dry. Probably only 20 percent of the country is "green". The country seems to do okay sustaining 20 million people but it could not sustain a population like the US or Europe, forget Asia either.

China and India will come up some time this century but people are premature about them becoming on parity with Western nations. Claiming that India is a Superpower or a nation rising to that status is very premature, even in their most modernizing cities, millions of people don't have access to very basic things like clean water and plumbing:
http://www.ourplanet.com/imgversn/144/sharma.html
India is probably one of the most unequal nations on the planet, with a multibillionaire like Laxmi Mittal and many people who live on less than a dollar a day.

Even in the poor in Western Europe, Canada, Oz/NZ, and the US are pretty well off compared to the poor and middle class in the developing world. One sticky issue is that the US and Europe have been lately absorbing a large number of immigrants from third world countries, the US gets a large influx of migrants from Latin America and Europe gets a large influx of immigrants from the Middle East.

 

[Dr.Millisevert]

One thing to keep in mind is that even though Australia's population keeps growing (130,000 legal immigrants in 2007), the United States adds a lot MORE people (1.3 million legal immigrants in 2007) each and every year.

The fact that Australia is an isolated island in the south pacific does help control and document all immigration. Unlike the US who has such large un-regulatable borders with Canada and Mexico. People think the US immigration policy is strict or they take issues when they try to tighten things up.. however, Australia is much stricter. The only ways into our out of the country are by boat or plane.. and if you don't have documentation, then you are put into a detention center overnight and shipped back to wherever you came from on the next flight out.

Yes, you have a lot more social services provided from tax dollars in Australia to its citizens. However, because of the immigration control much more people are actually documented and are actually paying taxes to begin with.

In the US.. before you could institute more social systems where you give greater benefits to everyone living in the US, it would be benefitial to at least be able to make everyone who is currently living and working in the US (legally and illegally) contribute (pay taxes) first... that is of course if we don't want the US to go into greater amounts of debt. If all illegal immigrants and migrant workers currently in the US were just given citizenship, at least they would be contributing (paying taxes) into a system they are already using and benefiting from.

Thoughts?

 

[Doctor]

Actually of all the problems associated with illegal immigration in the US (such as that 1.3 million legal immigrants becoming 3+ million new faces per year if you count illegals), them not paying taxes is not a large one. Why? Because even legal citizens in low-paying jobs like that in the US pay very little in taxes. They pay very little income tax anyway... a lot more into Social Security and such, most of which eventually comes back to them.

Australia doesn't really provide more to its citizens monetarily despite the higher tax rates. Why? US incomes are higher, so 35% of a higher number ends up being more raised in taxes per person than 45% of a smaller number. Using healthcare as an example, Australia covers everyone but spends less $$$ per person than the US government does on healthcare. Instead of universal coverage, the US gov't puts thousands of $$$ per person into research through NIH and such, as well as the more socialized Medicare and Medicaid programs.

So I guess what I'm saying is, one of the oft-misunderstood points anyway, is that the rest of the world gets to be a "free loader" on the back of US Government funded medical research, while the poor people in the US who are not covered by health insurance suffer for it. Just put less into research and cover everyone, and there's no need to raise taxes or document more workers.

 

[EuroPhysician]

Most of the medication you find in Australia was designed in the European Union or the United States, so the free ride theory seems to work.

Why give the rest of the world a free ride when so many poor Americans are getting screwed?? If I was an American I would be very upset about this, although I do have a lot of family there.

Illegals in the US do not pay taxes because their income is not reported.

While Australia may not become a major military and economic power like the US, EU, China, and India, it will still be a great place to live, and in terms of quality of life surpasses much of these big four already.

 

[shan564]

Americans aren't pissed off about it for a variety of reasons...
First off, the pharmaceutical industry provides a lot of jobs.
Second, they do a lot of other things that we're more pissed off about.
Third, Australia does actually pay for the drugs, they just don't pay as much as we do (because of the immense markup by the drug companies).
Plus, there are more issues... but it's late at night and it's too complicated to go through all of those motivations/opinions in one little post.

 

[FunkyR]

Australian immigration - the only reason why immigration is being actively promoted is that the Australian population rate is declining and we need immigration to keep the population growth in the 'black'.

About the US drug research and medical research - well it IS the US companies that reap the rewards of discovering these drugs etc. Saying that other countries are 'free loading' off this research is totally wrong - the US drug companies (of which the larger ones are huge multi billion dollar companies) are out to make a buck. They're not interested in researching drugs that will save the lives of people suffering super rare conditions - it's just not cost effective to do so. That's why there arent so that many drugs for treatment of rare diseases.

 

[JoeNamaMD]

Australia has a lot of space, it was not an immigration country in the style of the US and Canada until recently when they created a points system. In the old system if you were from the UK or Ireland, you were pretty much automatically admitted. I have heard some people say that if you are from these two countries its a bit easier to migrate than for others. Its obviously a much smaller population than either North American country so people start to know each other a lot more.

 

[FunkyR]

In the old system if you were from the UK or Ireland, you were pretty much automatically admitted.

Mmmm very easy to immigrate to Australia if you were from UK or Irleand pre-1973.

A little bit of Australia's dark past:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Australia_policy

 

[JoeNamaMD]

Funky, the US and Canada had similar laws, they were written differently. The US got rid of its whites only policy earlier than Australia, President Kennedy initially changed the US policy of admitting only Europeans in the early 1960s, even then most non European immigration actually started in the 1970s. I don't think Australia is some strange exception to the claim of racism, Australia is in a region which many consider Asia, so these people think its odd for a Western nation to exist in such an area of the world.

I found an interesting verbal exchange regarding racism in Australia vs. the USA on youtube. It was absolutely heated, it started with an American imitating the Australian bogan, and then an Australian recorded a video in retaliation, the Aussie had a lot of valid points. Australia did not have African slavery, they have not attacked other nations in anger(US in Iraq, much of the US as we know it used to be Mexico), its a lot easier to immigrate to Australia than the USA too. A few Asians I met in Australia were actually shocked while visiting the US because they were fingerprinted upon entry into the USA, something they did not have to endure in Australia. In fact Australia has been attracting a lot of Asian students because of the very tight immigration that is now in the United States.

Especially since 9-11, a lot of people who would have migrated to the US, are now going to Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the EU.

 

[shan564]

Funky, the US and Canada had similar laws, they were written differently. The US got rid of its whites only policy earlier than Australia, President Kennedy initially changed the US policy of admitting only Europeans in the early 1960s, even then most non European immigration actually started in the 1970s. I don't think Australia is some strange exception to the claim of racism, Australia is in a region which many consider Asia, so these people think its odd for a Western nation to exist in such an area of the world.

I found an interesting verbal exchange regarding racism in Australia vs. the USA on youtube. It was absolutely heated, it started with an American imitating the Australian bogan, and then an Australian recorded a video in retaliation, the Aussie had a lot of valid points. Australia did not have African slavery, they have not attacked other nations in anger(US in Iraq, much of the US as we know it used to be Mexico), its a lot easier to immigrate to Australia than the USA too. A few Asians I met in Australia were actually shocked while visiting the US because they were fingerprinted upon entry into the USA, something they did not have to endure in Australia. In fact Australia has been attracting a lot of Asian students because of the very tight immigration that is now in the United States.

Especially since 9-11, a lot of people who would have migrated to the US, are now going to Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the EU.

I've heard that people are reluctant to even visit the US these days because of the heightened regulations. Of my 22 year-long life, I've spent 16 years in the US... but I'm still waiting for them to finish my "background check" so that I can become a US citizen. When I left Pakistan for good, I was 9 years old... but it still takes them far longer to look at my records than it does to look at the records of a person who came from Europe recently.

 

[Doctor]

Funky, the US and Canada had similar laws, they were written differently. The US got rid of its whites only policy earlier than Australia, President Kennedy initially changed the US policy of admitting only Europeans in the early 1960s, even then most non European immigration actually started in the 1970s. I don't think Australia is some strange exception to the claim of racism, Australia is in a region which many consider Asia, so these people think its odd for a Western nation to exist in such an area of the world.

I found an interesting verbal exchange regarding racism in Australia vs. the USA on youtube. It was absolutely heated, it started with an American imitating the Australian bogan, and then an Australian recorded a video in retaliation, the Aussie had a lot of valid points. Australia did not have African slavery, they have not attacked other nations in anger(US in Iraq, much of the US as we know it used to be Mexico), its a lot easier to immigrate to Australia than the USA too. A few Asians I met in Australia were actually shocked while visiting the US because they were fingerprinted upon entry into the USA, something they did not have to endure in Australia. In fact Australia has been attracting a lot of Asian students because of the very tight immigration that is now in the United States.

Especially since 9-11, a lot of people who would have migrated to the US, are now going to Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the EU.

The U.S. never had a whites-only immigration policy like Australia. The American railroads were built mainly by Asians, and San Francisco's Chinatown was already very large in the mid-1800s.

And when discussing the buying of African slaves, this stopped a century before Australia became a country so it's hard to compare apples with apples in that case.

Also, as far as people who would normally immigrate to the US now immigrating to Australia, there are still 10x as many immigrants coming to the US every year than Australia. Another key difference here is that the US has to struggle with all the immigrants who constantly want to come here, but Australia is probably more like Canada where they have to actively advertise in foreign countries and talk up their country and how much they love new immigrants there.

It's not that Australia (or Canada) is a bad country to live in, it's just that immigrants hear about the US all day in moves and their daily lives, whereas they have to actively seek out information about smaller countries.

--------
As for me, I like Australians. And the country is beautiful. I'd probably consider living there myself if their doctors made anything close to what they make in the US. Also, a concern is that Australia is similar to the American Southwest in that the looming water shortages of the 21st century will hit the area particularly hard with its existing water scarcity and lack of rain.

 

[shan564]

The U.S. never had a whites-only immigration policy like Australia. The American railroads were built mainly by Asians, and San Francisco's Chinatown was already very large in the mid-1800s.

Yeah, but we had plenty of other whites-only policies. The point isn't to say "Australia = US"... rather, the point is to say that racism was common in much of the Western world.

And when discussing the buying of African slaves, this stopped a century before Australia became a country so it's hard to compare apples with apples in that case.

Nobody tried to compare apples to apples. The purpose is to say that Australia wasn't the only racist country.

Also, as far as people who would normally immigrate to the US now immigrating to Australia, there are still 10x as many immigrants coming to the US every year than Australia.

Yeah, but the US also has 15x the population of Australia.

Another key difference here is that the US has to struggle with all the immigrants who constantly want to come here, but Australia is probably more like Canada where they have to actively advertise in foreign countries and talk up their country and how much they love new immigrants there.

That's true, but I don't see how it's relevant.

It's not that Australia (or Canada) is a bad country to live in, it's just that immigrants hear about the US all day in moves and their daily lives, whereas they have to actively seek out information about smaller countries.

As a Pakistani-American immigrant, I can attest that immigrants always hear about the US because of all English-speaking Western countries (US, UK, Canada, Aus), the US is the most populated. Until recently, it was also the most immigrant-friendly. But that aside, I can say with fair confidence that people are just as excited to go to the UK as they are to go to the US.

As for me, I like Australians. And the country is beautiful. I'd probably consider living there myself if their doctors made anything close to what they make in the US.

See this thread:
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=517916

 

[Dr.Millisevert]

As for me, I like Australians. And the country is beautiful. I'd probably consider living there myself if their doctors made anything close to what they make in the US. Also, a concern is that Australia is similar to the American Southwest in that the looming water shortages of the 21st century will hit the area particularly hard with its existing water scarcity and lack of rain.

I agree with you in regards to the water issue.

However in regards to the salary issue: -> http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showpost.php?p=6575036&postcount=8

I honestly don't think it is as big of a difference as people believe (maybe 10-15 years ago this was true). However, especially now considering the current currency exchange and other factors.. I think in many areas, Australian physicians actually come out well ahead of their American counterparts financially.

 

[Doctor]

now considering the current currency exchange and other factors.. I think in many areas, Australian physicians actually come out well ahead of their American counterparts financially.

Interesting look at things... I've got to say though, I'd base the decision on average exchange rates as I described here, not current exchange rates. Foreign exchange rates are cyclical by nature. JoeNamaMD has already named McCain the next President of the United States, but most people in the US believe that he is too old and that Obama is the most likely choice. If Obama or Clinton II is elected, you'll see the US dollar rise as the deficit declines (which is what happened when Clinton I was in office). And even if McCain wins, it's hard to see how the USD would remain down for the next 40 years that a new doctor would be practicing.

-----
Still though, it's nice to see that Australia is a viable alternative these days... and if the salaries are equal as they seem to be today, it might be easier practicing day-to-day in a socialized system like Australia's than a private insurance system like in the US. Hopefully less wrestling with different insurance policies and more time with patients, etc.

 

[JoeNamaMD]

Interesting look at things... I've got to say though, I'd base the decision on average exchange rates as I described here, not current exchange rates. Foreign exchange rates are cyclical by nature. JoeNamaMD has already named McCain the next President of the United States, but most people in the US believe that he is too old and that Obama is the most likely choice. If Obama or Clinton II is elected, you'll see the US dollar rise as the deficit declines (which is what happened when Clinton I was in office). And even if McCain wins, it's hard to see how the USD would remain down for the next 40 years that a new doctor would be practicing.

-----
Still though, it's nice to see that Australia is a viable alternative these days... and if the salaries are equal as they seem to be today, it might be easier practicing day-to-day in a socialized system like Australia's than a private insurance system like in the US. Hopefully less wrestling with different insurance policies and more time with patients, etc.

I seriously doubt an Obama victory is going to happen, the Jeremiah Wright issue is not going away. In fact Mr. Wright recently opened up his mouth. Obama lost Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states that are as Apple pie American as they come. The Austrian oak could help McCain win California too.