The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

Started by BMBiology
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bluc said:
Damn. Stock market took a dump today. I probably lost $50 k today
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whats your positions now? Are you just gonna continue to hold and not realize anything?

Past few weeks my remaining gains were erased a bit as I sold my QQQ. Now I am only sitting on 25k of unrealized gains.

I started new positions a few days ago in META, GOOGL, AMZN.
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LFA20 said:
whats your positions now? Are you just gonna continue to hold and not realize anything?

Past few weeks my remaining gains were erased a bit as I sold my QQQ. Now I am only sitting on 25k of unrealized gains.

I started new positions a few days ago in META, GOOGL, AMZN. View attachment 411983
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I hate to say it but I have been indecisive. I have been holding as the market keeps on going down and down. I can sell but then what? I have no plans as everything is expensive. I do not want to be cash heavy.

Investors are just cashing in their gains. We had a massive bull run so I wouldn’t be surprised if the market continues to struggle. Is the Fed going to decrease rates when inflation continues to be abnormally high? This is just a weird market.
 
YTD, I’m 24-27% return on retirement accounts and 14% return on dividend based brokerage account…despite making huge reset switching/streamlining to 1 investing platform and playing around too much, trying to figure out how I want to build my dividend based brokerage account. Looking to be waaay more intentional for 2026

Yeah, looking back, I’d attribute my gains to intentional allocations towards international funds (usually ~30-40% international across all accounts)
 
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How did you do this year? I am up about $200 k including HSA. What is your 2026 S&P prediction?
 
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baronzb said:
doesnt there need to be a downturn first.
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They’ve definitely been underperforming for years & have been very lackluster. No where near as trendy with the boat loads of aggressively high yield options (NEOS, YieldMAX, Goldman Sachs, etc.) available today…for youngins to foolishly buy into because of that there FOMO & good old fashion near sightedness & instant gratification need.

Interestingly, O had a decent rally recently
VICI is the only REIT that has been somewhat trendy post Covid
 
baronzb said:
Does anyone think silver/gold will rebound. holly crap on friday's 40 percent retracement.
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There’s one dominating factor…inflation. If inflation remains abnormally high then the Fed will be less likely to lower interest rates and US would need to adopt a strong dollar policy to counter inflation.

US nation debt is approaching $40T. It makes sense to weaken the dollar and thereby, making it easier to pay off the debt. However, this would mean higher inflation. US can’t have it both ways…it has to choose.
 
I don’t think the yuan will replace the dollar anytime soon but historically, the currency of the country that trades the most with the world becomes the world’s reserve currency. China’s trade surplus in 2025 is $1.2T. China is the top trading partner of 70% of the countries.

It will be a slow process but China will offer countries a discount if they repay and trade in yuan/local currency instead of dollar. If your country runs a trade deficit with China then why would you care if the trade is in dollar or local currency? It is just for transactions. China will then use the surplus to buy hard assets like gold and allow other countries to exchange the yuan for gold.

Making the yuan strong would make Chinese goods more expensive. However, automation and robotics will only make things cheaper and cheaper to produce especially now since the younger generation doesn’t want to work in a factory. In fact, labor cost in China is now 4x more expensive than in India.

The dollar has lost 10% of its value in one year but since it surged during covid, its value is still relatively strong. However, if it keeps on going lower then why would the world want to hold it especially now that US is looking inward and is trading less? Central banks have been dumping dollars for gold. The dollar will then have no choice but to come back home and therefore, causing inflation to go higher and higher. US can increase interest rates to control inflation but this would make the national debt harder to pay off. Other empires also ran into the same problem and they chose to print more money at expense of inflation. I believe US will do the same because it is the lesser of two evils
 
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Who would have thought right?? Making equipments and machines more expensive is hurting manufacturing. It will take years and billions in investment to make them domestically. Even then, they probably won’t be as good because you don’t have years of experience

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baronzb said:
You forgot to cite the previous 45 years.
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Let’s be real. Manufacturing jobs went up 700-800,000 during Biden administration. What caused the reverse in trend? High tariff on machineries and equipments. It took the U.S. decades to de-industrialize. You can’t reverse course overnight with high tariffs
 
We had 45% of the population in industry in the 1950s. Now its 7 percent. offshoring in the 80s, with NAFTA in th e90s, followed by WTO admission in the year 2000, caused it to collapse.
Whatever happenstance of cyclical improvement under the last administration is animical to this overall trend.
 
baronzb said:
We had 45% of the population in industry in the 1950s. Now its 7 percent. offshoring in the 80s, with NAFTA in th e90s, followed by WTO admission in the year 2000, caused it to collapse.
Whatever happenstance of cyclical improvement under the last administration is animical to this overall trend.
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Maybe so but that doesn’t dispute my point that high tariffs is causing manufacturing jobs lost…does it?
 
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My YTD:
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I'm at the point in investing where my 401k contributions barely move the needle. Which is cool. If AI takes over tomorrow and I lose my job, I can likely just coast to retirement. Which is a very freeing feeling. Actually, I'm getting to the point where I might not be able to retire as early as I want because I won't be old enough to withdraw without tax penalties. A pretty good problem to have. I guess I need to focus more on my taxable accounts.

Lesson here, kids. Max out your 401k and Roth IRA as soon as you graduate. You will retire a multi-millionaire.
 
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WVUPharm2007 said:
My YTD:
View attachment 415523

I'm at the point in investing where my 401k contributions barely move the needle. Which is cool. If AI takes over tomorrow and I lose my job, I can likely just coast to retirement. Which is a very freeing feeling. Actually, I'm getting to the point where I might not be able to retire as early as I want because I won't be old enough to withdraw without tax penalties. A pretty good problem to have. I guess I need to focus more on my taxable accounts.

Lesson here, kids. Max out your 401k and Roth IRA as soon as you graduate. You will retire a multi-millionaire.
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That is pretty good. I am always heavily invested in tech companies…not just American but also in Chinese companies. I want to diversify.
 
Iran is not only 4x the size of Iraq but it is protected by a mountainous terrain. If a US carrier gets hit…there goes the image of the world most powerful military. The stock market would also go down the drain. I know a carrier is protected but under a barrage of drone and missile attacks then it becomes a number game. It is a huge mistake to go to war with Iran. It is not what we need. It is not what we want.
 

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No Middle East oil means no more petrodollar. Dollar will come back home, causing inflation. In 2 weeks, you will start to feel the pain. Time is on Iran’s side.
 
US treasury yield is spiking. Shouldn’t it go down in times of uncertainty? No oil from the Middle East means the petrodollar is no longer needed. If the US won’t or can’t defend the Middle East then would these countries continue to prop up the dollar?
 
Trump is now determined to defend the strait of hormuz = defend the dollar

Unlike Russia, Iran’s attack has been relentless. If Russia cannot decisively defeat Ukraine this year then it is time to hang up the boots. Ukraine is already low on soldiers and will be low on weapons stockpiles…it is now or never Boris.
 
baronzb said:
will gold increase or decrease in this debacle. it increated the first few days than sold off
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If it is a protracted war then gold will certainly go higher. US will need to print money to finance the war.

Like during the early days of Covid, gold initially went down. Gold is viewed as a store of value so in uncertain times the demand goes up. This allows investors to cash out without cashing the gold market.

If the war ends in a week or so then things will go back to normal but the longer the war lasts then it will become harder and harder to negotiate your way out. Sunk cost fallacy will rear its ugly head. Sending ground troops will be a disaster…just don’t do it. Countless deaths and massive money printing will be the result.
 
What do you think Trump will do? Will he call it a victory and end the war? Will he triple down and send in troops? It is obvious Iran will continue to fight.
 
bluc said:
US treasury yield is spiking. Shouldn’t it go down in times of uncertainty? No oil from the Middle East means the petrodollar is no longer needed. If the US won’t or can’t defend the Middle East then would these countries continue to prop up the dollar?
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US treasury continues to go up which means higher rates from mortgage to auto loans to student loans to credit card. No Middle East oil means no more petrodollars

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First time ever…a F-35 got hit today by an Iranian missile. The dollar is not backed by gold. It is no longer backed by oil. The only thing that is still backing the dollar is the US military.

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