What percentage of medical school matriculants graduate?

Habeed · Feb 9, 2009

Out all everyone who enters medical school on day 1 for allopathic schools in the United States, what is the average graduation percentage?

I am just curious as to what the real numbers are...I have heard various things, and google is not being helpful. I can't seem to phrase the question right.

armybound · Feb 9, 2009

silverhorse84 · Feb 9, 2009

I was under the impression that it was pretty high and most of the people that don't, it's not because they failed out but because they decided to leave. I mean there may be a few that fail out, but med schools do their best to only admit students they are sure have the ability to make it through - they don't want anyone to leave, it lowers the money they make 😛

KeyzerSoze · Feb 9, 2009

http://www.aamc.org/data/aib/aibissues/aibvol7_no2.pdf

Graduation rates for medical students
have been stable in the recent past.
Between 80.6 percent and 82.2 percent
of each of the three cohorts in the study
graduated in four years. By the fifth year,
the overall graduation rate for the three
cohorts climbed to 91.3 percent, about
the same rate that Kassebaum and
Szenas (1994) calculated for the 1988
matriculating class (91.2 percent).

Within seven years, 94.2 percent had grad-
uated. A small number, including those in
combined and dual degree programs,
completed their M.D.s over longer
periods, resulting in a 10-year completion
rate of 96 percent for all three cohorts.

Habeed · Feb 9, 2009

Thanks, that last bit was what I was looking for. 96 percent is a hard, verified number. And it's even lower if you take into account other factors.

KeyzerSoze · Feb 9, 2009

Habeed said:
Thanks, that last bit was what I was looking for. 96 percent is a hard, verified number. And it's even lower if you take into account other factors.

If you look at the chart, you'll see there's a lot of variation based on ethnicity. I don't know if things have improved in the past decade.

Habeed · Feb 10, 2009

That's the "other factor" I took into account. I wanted to know what my chance of making it was from a pure statistical perspective.

tdittyx2x3 · Feb 10, 2009

In the case of some ethnicity's, less than 1% drop out for academic reasons. The other 3-5% drop out because of personal issues: physical/mental health problems, family problems, etc.

From what I can see, when you start, you are very likely to finish unless something outside of your control intervenes.

But I wonder how many in that 3-5% drop out due to a change of heart about the career? It doesn't seem as if the first two years are a great barometer for what the career will be like, so dropping out then doesn't make much sense... but then if you make it to third year everyone will be telling you to ride it out and get the degree.

Law2Doc · Feb 10, 2009

Habeed said:
Thanks, that last bit was what I was looking for. 96 percent is a hard, verified number. And it's even lower if you take into account other factors.

The rate is 94-96%, but bear in mind that only 1.5% of all US allo end up not graduating due to academic reasons. Meaning 3-4% are leaving on their own volition, usually realizing that medicine isn't what they thought or really wanted to do. So those 3-4% could have graduated as well. You can pretty much assume that if you get into med school, you will become a doctor, eventually.

mbe36 · Feb 10, 2009

The rates at international institutions are much lower.

Habeed · Feb 10, 2009

Does that include institutions like high end British and Swedish and Canadian medical schools? The ones that take the best applicants from their respective countries?

NonTradMed · Feb 10, 2009

Habeed said:
Does that include institutions like high end British and Swedish and Canadian medical schools? The ones that take the best applicants from their respective countries?

When referring to international schools, I think most people are referring to those schools set up to accept US students who didn't get into a US medical school. It stands to reason that they have a lower graduation rate.

Habeed · Feb 10, 2009

NonTrad : yes, possibly. On the other hand, most of these foreign schools take students straight from high school.

NonTradMed · Feb 14, 2009

Habeed said:
NonTrad : yes, possibly. On the other hand, most of these foreign schools take students straight from high school.

That doesn't always mean med schools in these countries attract a lower caliber of students.

Remember that many countries track their students from a young age. I know Germany does it to an extreme, tracking begins at 11 and they split students up into traditional college bound students and vocational/technical students early on. So the students who are in the traditional college bound high schools are the top students in the country.

The US has nothing like that. Almost everyone goes to high school and are placed in honors, regular etc classes. As a result of treating most students as potential college matriculants, the US sees a number of substandard students ill prepared for college. Other countries see less of that problem.

I know that in countries like Iran, even though med schools are direct from high school, they only take the stop students (as it is a prestigious job), so I don't think their candidates are of lower quality than the US. I agree that the US receives the top people into med school, but other countries do as well in their own ways

Law2Doc · Feb 15, 2009

NonTradMed said:
That doesn't always mean med schools in these countries attract a lower caliber of students.
...

No, but by starting earlier, they absolutely will attract more people who have yet learned enough about themselves and the field to decide whether this is the path for them. Most people "come of age" older than their teen years. In US schools, even at age 21-24 people are still having "first year angst" wondering whether medicine is really for them. Imagine if they were on the path 4 years earlier. That is one reason attrition is higher in non-US systems.

Another is that most non-US systems will fail people out much much more easily. At a US allo school you will get second and third chances to fix things and move on. In other countries, if you fail multiple tests or a course, you are often out.

Terpskins99 · Feb 15, 2009

Law2Doc said:
The rate is 94-96%, but bear in mind that only 1.5% of all US allo end up not graduating due to academic reasons. Meaning 3-4% are leaving on their own volition, usually realizing that medicine isn't what they thought or really wanted to do. So those 3-4% could have graduated as well. You can pretty much assume that if you get into med school, you will become a doctor, eventually.

Its funny, because in my eyes "own volition" is effectively the same thing as "academic reasons" (though technically, I'm guessing you're using "academic reasons" as a euphemism for "flunked out"). Medical school is pretty friggin hard, folks. Make sure this is what you want to do.

majahops · Feb 16, 2009

I don't mean to argue with you or question this. Rather, I just wonder... Would this 3-4% include those students who realized they weren't going to be able to hack it academically, and jumped ship before they got officially "dismissed for academic reasons?"

Law2Doc said:
Meaning 3-4% are leaving on their own volition, usually realizing that medicine isn't what they thought or really wanted to do.

What percentage of medical school matriculants graduate?

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