Back in the early 90s, the AMA/AAMC predicted a glut of doctors. Did the AAMC encourage med schools to downsize? NO.
What in the world makes you think they will do it if/when a doctor glut arises?
Here is what I know:
1) Med schools are changing. The focus is becoming less and less on student education and more on research, direct patient care, and ancillary services.
2) Govt money given to state med schools is decreasing, increasing their financial strain, decreasing incentive to increase class size.
3) There is a shortage of doctors right now, not a glut.
4) NPs, PAs are increasingly taking over primary care doc turf.
5) Less and less docs are going into primary care.
6) Despite this, specialists are in high demand, indicating increasing class size shouldn't pose an employment problem for wanna be docs
7) given #1, #2 and #6, it would make more sense to open a new med school than expand class size dramatically
8) Given #1, market forces are now having an effect on med schools like never before, meaning that unless goverment gives more money for student training, there is no incentive to train more students
9) The government (hopefully) would not give more money out (state, fed) to med schools, to train students, unless it could justify training more docs.
10) The AAMC provides stats (current, and predictive) to govt on the current status of med school grad turnout, etc., thereby influencing govt policy for providing money to train students.
11) Docs have a lot of money, and they dont want to lose money due to increased competitition. Money = political capital. Even though the AMA is an ineffective lobbying organization, docs in general still wield influence on Capitol hill.
Summary point - The integration of med schools into the business world w/ continued govt oversight of schools via the AAMC, will ensure that class sizes will be adjusted appropriately (although surely with some degree of fluctuation).
