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I think it depends on how stellar your research is. Amazing research experience can make up for a mediocre GPA to an extent. However none of us can really say how much of an influence GPA/MCAT plays since it is very rare for either of those to be brought up in an interview (leading one to believe that they are less important, even if they still factor in during admissions committee meetings). I would guess that once you have an interview, your research/other aspects of your application are more important. However it will be tough to get top interviews without the necessarily stellar GPA/MCAT, since there are a lot of applicants with great grades/scores and similarly great research. That being said, many many adcoms state that if they wanted to, they could fill their classes with 40 MCAT/4.0 GPA students, but none do.
Personally, I have heard both -- that MSTPs are more holistic than MD admissions (with respect to paying more attention to research than scores), and also that they are more number-driven. Who knows!
Maybe @Fencer could provide more insight.
I haven't applied so obviously you might know more about this than me but it has been my impression from the two MD/PhD info sess days on my campus with PDs, students and admissions people from several of my state's programs that MSTPs are more holistic than MD admissions...but one of the things that makes the dual degree path awesome also makes it much more competitive and that is the fact that the applicant pool is very self-selected and filled with high achieving people. I don't think they are more number driven because then we would see a lot more people getting in with crazy numbers but mediocre or middling research records - it seems to me that the applicants who are lopsided or have lower stats but are successful also have very strong research records. The dual degree programs might be considered less holistic than MD in that they look for a more narrowly defined set of experiences and aptitudes; on the other hand, I have anecdotally witnessed that people with crazy numbers (3.9/40) get cut a lot of slack in MD admissions.