2017 Pathology NRMP statistics

[Doormat]

It's official. Pathology is the worst of the worst. The bottom of the barrel. Statistics for the 2017 match are available on the NRMP website. This year, a paltry 231 US medical graduates applied for pathology residency positions. 35.9% of all pathology residency slots were filled by US applicants this year. That’s nearly 10 percentage points less than the next lowest major specialty -- family medicine, with 45.1% of positions filling with US grads. 21% of all pathology training programs in the US went unfilled. In recent years Pathology has been commoditized like no other specialty and US grads are taking notice. They are avoiding our specialty in droves.

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[jupiterianvibe]

That's why I'm leaving. better late than never.


I can assure you that every single one of those unfilled positions is going to be filled with an IMG.

This field is a joke. Should be a PhD program.

 

[deleted314957]

Very sad but no surprise at all.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile

 

[coroner]

I wonder why it was so low this year. I remember when I matched, it was actually majority AMG's i.e. about 55%. This shouldn't be anything to get too depressed about...competitiveness and interest of specialties tend to wax and wane over the years with the exception of the few steady ones at the top e.g. derm, plastics, etc.

That's why I'm leaving. better late than never.

Care to tell us your backup plan? For all we know it could be anything from real estate to freelance hacking for the Russians...

 

[gbwillner]

Definitely a down year and recent downward trend. CAP and other groups should be alarmed by this. When I joined this specialty, it wasn't competitive, but certainly more so than pediatrics and IM. Now it certainly seems like US students are staying away.

 

[postbacpremed87]

Definitely a down year and recent downward trend. CAP and other groups should be alarmed by this. When I joined this specialty, it wasn't competitive, but certainly more so than pediatrics and IM. Now it certainly seems like US students are staying away.

Think they will consider cutting spots now? 1/5 of all spots didn't fill. I think US students would be open to Pathology if they started limiting Path spots.

 

[Thrombus]

Think they will consider cutting spots now? 1/5 of all spots didn't fill. I think US students would be open to Pathology if they started limiting Path spots.

Big Academia thrives on the labor and the 6 figure pay checks that come with it. No way they cut. We dont need pathologists for 10 years at least. Pathology is run by fools!!!

 

[jupiterianvibe]

Big Academia thrives on the labor and the 6 figure pay checks that come with it. No way they cut. We dont need pathologists for 10 years at least. Pathology is run by fools!!!

I disagree.

the pathology rank-and-file are fools, but its overlords are geniuses.

 

[jupiterianvibe]

Definitely a down year and recent downward trend. CAP and other groups should be alarmed by this. When I joined this specialty, it wasn't competitive, but certainly more so than pediatrics and IM. Now it certainly seems like US students are staying away.

They're gonna do the same thing they do every year. "it's just a bad year, let's get more data"

Meanwhile every unfilled spot is going to go to whatever IMG walks through the door.

We've no standards in this field. None.

I wonder if the ivy leagues like that the rest of the field is populated by *******es so that they can have more consults sent to them (kidding, kind of)

 

[Dyson Sphere]

Wrong forum.

 

[docprincess]

Please stop spreading rumors about this speciality.if you are not happy, please leave this field and apply for another speciality. But realize that everyone doesn't want to go for Internal medicine or family medicine. People are frustrated in those fields too. Every field has its prons and cons. You can't tract any speciality down based on no reasons. This is a field of interest and skill. US grads don't apply much to pathology because they do not have Pathology in their medical school curriculum. Many of them don't know what this field is about. Foreign grads have extensive exposure and so they do have interest. You show a slide to one us grad and one foreign grad, you will see the difference. Still those US grads who are applying to this field do rotations in path and they really like it. I personally know many who switched from SURGERY or other speciality to Pathology. So please please stop this negativity on this forum. This is still great field for those who have skills to make diagnoses. It's not easy. You look under microscope and you realize it's not easy. People who are new to this field , do not go by any negative posts.

 

[Pathman1000]

Please stop spreading rumors about this speciality.if you are not happy, please leave this field and apply for another speciality. But realize that everyone doesn't want to go for Internal medicine or family medicine. People are frustrated in those fields too. Every field has its prons and cons. You can't tract any speciality down based on no reasons. This is a field of interest and skill. US grads don't apply much to pathology because they do not have Pathology in their medical school curriculum. Many of them don't know what this field is about. Foreign grads have extensive exposure and so they do have interest. You show a slide to one us grad and one foreign grad, you will see the difference. Still those US grads who are applying to this field do rotations in path and they really like it. I personally know many who switched from SURGERY or other speciality to Pathology. So please please stop this negativity on this forum. This is still great field for those who have skills to make diagnoses. It's not easy. You look under microscope and you realize it's not easy. People who are new to this field , do not go by any negative posts.

We all know it's interesting, but few are hiring. Talk to the fellows; the people on this forum are not lying. Jobs are not plentiful and 2-3 fellowships is common! US medical students aren't stupid. They see the writing on the wall!

 

[DrfluffyMD]

US grads don't apply much to pathology because they do not have Pathology in their medical school curriculum.

No derm curriculum during my us med school either

 

[Granular]

@ docprincess: Are you kidding? In executive suites, pathology is seen as a commodity, regardless of your opinion of the field. Hospitals are contracting out their labs to "industry" or "expert" management teams as mechanisms to reduce costs. They go to the lowest bidders - like they do for food service or cleaning/environmental services. Do the hospitals' electricians need a medical director? Informed US med students do not want to go through all the expense and training for the reality of being viewed/treated like technicians or servants. For US grads, the high cost of med school raises the bar for what fields they should pursue to get the proper ROI; for FMGs, perhaps the financial barriers to entry are lower, so the ROI of becoming a pathologist is adequate.

The medical-academic-industrial complex does not want this situation to change. UROs, Derms, GIs, are all profiting enormously from the current situation, at the expense of pathologists and pathology. Train more folks, and "per slide" bids will go lower. The field is doomed, and the problems are not analogous to the situations docprincess is invoking - frustration due to other factors (perhaps documentation, billing, etc). To correlate with path, imagine too many derms. Rather than refer patients to a dermatologist, family practitioners hire them in their practices as non-partners, bill for their work, and pay them 20% of their professional fees. Until they can find one to do it for less. Get real, docprincess!

 

[jupiterianvibe]

No derm curriculum during my us med school either

I know right? Academic pathology likes to attribute the lack of interest in our field to a lack of exposure in medical school (there are tons of articles saying this), all the while ignoring any evidence that refutes their stupid hypothesis, such as the fact that derm/ophthal/uro/anesthesia always do better yet are off the radar in most schools. They also ignore the fact that family medicine is right down there with us yet most schools have a heavy family medicine component in their curriculum. So exposure does not correlate with interest. Dead theory. Put it to rest.

Students don't want to become pathologists because we are about as professional as a lab tech nowadays. monkeys.

can't live in a decent place.
can't get a job with professional respect.
always having your income shaved by businessmen.
working as a servant for your former classmates.
all garbage.

docprincess sounds like one of those 'grateful' IMGs.

 

[docprincess]

I am US grad for those who have concerns regarding IMG/AMG. But I did rotations in Pathology. I was just trying to say that those rotations helped me to decide my career and I like what I am doing. Everyone might have their own opinions regarding this field but it doesn't have to be bad for all. I am third year resident at prestigious institute and The advances in this field are beyond imagination unless you have worked in top ten institutions in this country.

 

[DrfluffyMD]

I am US grad for those who have concerns regarding IMG/AMG. But I did rotations in Pathology. I was just trying to say that those rotations helped me to decide my career and I like what I am doing. Everyone might have their own opinions regarding this field but it doesn't have to be bad for all. I am third year resident at prestigious institute and The advances in this field are beyond imagination unless you have worked in top ten institutions in this country.

I heard prestiguous institutions have trouble filling this year? That's a warning sign.

I am a radiology resident and I mean absolutely no disrespect to the field of pathology. In fact, we were in a similar boat very recently, with diminishing AMG interest.

Except our leadership chose to revitalize our field by introducing the IR/DR pathway and mostly carved out existing DR positions to make IR positions instead of flooding the field with more DR positions.

This year we have lower percentage of unfilled spot versus derm and a change in PGY2 positions from 982 last year to 932 this year.

I have so much respect for you guys, as the final say in medicine. Even us radiologists can only give a differential sometimes, but most of the time pathologist come to our rescue. The knowledge needed in the field of path seems to be immense to me as an outsider.

I absolutely believe pathology need to recruit the best and the brightest AMG, IMG or FMG in the field. They are the foundation of our medicine.

 

[Thrombus]

I am US grad for those who have concerns regarding IMG/AMG. But I did rotations in Pathology. I was just trying to say that those rotations helped me to decide my career and I like what I am doing. Everyone might have their own opinions regarding this field but it doesn't have to be bad for all. I am third year resident at prestigious institute and The advances in this field are beyond imagination unless you have worked in top ten institutions in this country.

Are you aware of the number of private pathologists and their groups being forced out of their hospitals thanks to the large number of foreign nationals willing to work for pennies on the dollar, a direct result of overtraining thanks to reliance of Big Academia on the welfare rolls?

 

[path24]

Go into pathology and you have no control/stability over your entire career. The truth is getting out some? A pathologist is just a glorified lab tech that can easily be replaced.

 

[AZpath]

Our leadership is stupid. Less spots for sure.
Membership has got to be more vocal. If practicing docs don't press the issue the status quo will rule.
Contact the CAP HOD members.
We need to give CAP a enema.

 

[jupiterianvibe]

Our leadership is stupid. Less spots for sure.
Membership has got to be more vocal. If practicing docs don't press the issue the status quo will rule.
Contact the CAP HOD members.
We need to give CAP a enema.

how can this be done when the CAPs major revenue source is big labs?

i recently read the book 'the rape of emergency medicine'. what happened in that was the emergency medicine national society was corrupt in that corporate interests were superseding the professions interests, so a bunch of emergency docs got together to form their own thing, and it worked out for the field as a whole.

pathologists should follow suit.

 

[pathstudent]

I think it was even worse before. I think only a little over 100 applied in the late 90s. But there were 25% less spots back then

 

[KeratinPearls]

Man there's a lot of negativity on here nowadays. Starting to think dudes like jupitervibes is Thrombus' second screenname.

 

[Thrombus]

Man there's a lot of negativity on here nowadays. Starting to think dudes like jupitervibes is Thrombus' second screenname.

Nope, not me! Although I have been trying to sound the alarm for 10 plus years now. Now crazy Thrombus is proving to be sage as pathologists are forced to take drastic pay cuts, forced out of their jobs, lose their practices, consolidate, etc all due to the massive overtraining that has been taking place for decades thanks to government/resident subsidized Big Academia.

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

Speaking of juperitian vibe...Why are there so many pathologists that like crappy metal? And why so many atheists?

 

[jupiterianvibe]

Speaking of juperitian vibe...Why are there so many pathologists that like crappy metal? And why so many atheists?

Hey now, don't you knock Samael!

 

[y2k_free_radical]

Speaking of juperitian vibe...Why are there so many pathologists that like crappy metal? And why so many atheists?
It's our dead outlook on life :>{

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

It could be our dead outlook on life..Maybe you are right.

I really don't care what people believe but I have lost count of the "card carrying" atheists I have ran into in this field. There are other pathology listservs/blogs online with these liberal dbags who love to show their intellectual superiority over the "believers". All they accomplished was chasing away the decent posters on the sites.

 

[y2k_free_radical]

It could be our dead outlook on life..Maybe you are right.

I really don't care what people believe but I have lost count of the "card carrying" atheists I have ran into in this field. There are other pathology listservs/blogs online with these liberal dbags who love to show their intellectual superiority over the "believers". All they accomplished was chasing away the decent posters on the sites.

I am a strong believer and refuse to think our time on earth is all there is.My wife and i have lead medical missions to the eastern part of the DRC and to the SOUTH SUDAN for the past 15 years.Hardest and most expensive vacations i've ever had but by far the most rewarding.

 

[deleted314957]

I am a strong believer and refuse to think our time on earth is all there is.My wife and i have lead medical missions to the eastern part of the DRC and to the SOUTH SUDAN for the past 15 years.Hardest and most expensive vacations i've ever had but by far the most rewarding.

Kudos for your good work (and your guts. Those places are NO picnic).

 

[gbwillner]

It could be our dead outlook on life..Maybe you are right.

I really don't care what people believe but I have lost count of the "card carrying" atheists I have ran into in this field. There are other pathology listservs/blogs online with these liberal dbags who love to show their intellectual superiority over the "believers". All they accomplished was chasing away the decent posters on the sites.

Don't worry- they won't be renewed at the time of carousel.

 

[coroner]

Why are there so many pathologists that like crappy metal?

Such as....???

My wife and i have lead medical missions to the eastern part of the DRC and to the SOUTH SUDAN for the past 15 years.Hardest and most expensive vacations i've ever had but by far the most rewarding.

That's impressive. '60 Minutes' just did a special on South Sudan last week how it's the world's newest country with virtually no infrastructure or centralized gov't. There's tens of thousands who've died since they separated and even more who don't even know where their next meal will come from. Just curious in what capacity did you do "medical" work leading a medical mission as a pathologist? Either way, hats off for your charitable contributions...

 

[y2k_free_radical]

Such as....???



That's impressive. '60 Minutes' just did a special on South Sudan last week how it's the world's newest country with virtually no infrastructure or centralized gov't. There's tens of thousands who've died since they separated and even more who don't even know where their next meal will come from. Just curious in what capacity did you do "medical" work leading a medical mission as a pathologist? Either way, hats off for your charitable contributions...

I do GMO type medicine.My wife and i head a team of about 65 composed of 7-8 from the states,CONGOLESE or SUDANESE physicians and nurses,interpreters,drivers,cooks,PASTORS and others.We generally operate in smaller towns in the bush.In the SOUTH SUDAN there are villages where the culture is almost stone age and the people are essentially naked.Our base of operation was KAPOETA where OSAMA BIN LADEN had a training camp before going to AFGHANISTAN because of its remoteness from civilization.We meet with the WARLORDS or tribal chieftains who control the area as well as titular government or UN peacekeepers who don't.The former give us their blessings for "considerations" as well as protection by militia with AK-47s.We carry over $1,000,000 of medicine that we purchase at 5 cents on the dollar from organizations such as MAP.Active fighting continues in both areas with close to 8 million deaths in eastern DRC.Most are now dying from disease or starvation rather than AK=-47 s or machetes.The RWANDAN HUTU-TUTSI problem spilled over into the DRC followed by an AFRICAN CIVIL WAR.In the SUDAN,The ARAB-MUSLIM north fought the ANIMIST-CHRISTIAN south.Away from the cities the eastern DRC and the SOUTH SUDAN are failed states.Atrocities are frequent and government soldiers are part of the problem.Children are forced into being soldiers .Hundreds of thousands are refugees.Rape is epidemic with the DRC being the rape capital of the world.Cannibalism has occurred,i.e.,read about the bus incident in DRO DRO ,a place we minister,concerning the LENDU-HEMA .At GOMA,our base of operation,we have been surrounded by a rebel army.We treat malaria,elephantiasis,guinea worms,trachoma,hypothyroidism,cretinism,malnourishment,POSSESSION,measles,polio,minor injuries as well as allergies,gi worms or h.pylori,respiratory infections,pgymies.etc.I fear i am becoming too old to continue but i cherish my experiences including several visits to the endangered mountain gorillas who are the closest animals to humans at VIRUNGA and an active volcano NYIRAGONGO.Thanks for the interest.

 

[pathstudent]

does anyone have the data? I always like seeing which top tier programs didn't fill.

And to the woman above who said that we couldn't believe how advanced they are at a top ten academic facility, I couldn't disagree more. I came from a place like your and am now in a quaternary care private practice and the physicians in my community are way more advanced than the ones from where I trained.

 

[coroner]

Wow. I did a brief volunteer stint in Africa myself, but it was in an actual hospital in a city. This is on a whole other level...like Golden Triangle, Amazonian indigenous type stuff. Great writeup and stay safe over there...

 

[y2k_free_radical]

Wow. I did a brief volunteer stint in Africa myself, but it was in an actual hospital in a city. This is on a whole other level...like Golden Triangle, Amazonian indigenous type stuff. Great writeup and stay safe over there...

Thanks again.I really have been blessed by these missions.Our problems here are truly FIRST WORLD PROBLEMS as cleverly shown on you tube.Where and when were you in AFRICA ???

 

[gbwillner]

Thanks again.I really have been blessed by these missions.Our problems here are truly FIRST WORLD PROBLEMS as cleverly shown on you tube.Where and when were you in AFRICA ???

My house is so big I can't get wifi in the kitchen.

 

[jupiterianvibe]

How does a pathologist get involved with these aid missions?

 

[y2k_free_radical]

My house is so big I can't get wifi in the kitchen.

:>} I do have a similar problem caused by both size of house and a large fireplace that blocks the signals.I require a booster.No crocodile tears as you play the worlds smallest violin please

 

[y2k_free_radical]

My house is so big I can't get wifi in the kitchen.

I truly have a similar problem caused by size of house and a large fireplace requiring a booster.No crocodile tears as you play the world's smalest violin pleas :>}

 

[y2k_free_radical]

How does a pathologist get involved with these aid missions?

I joined a missionary who went into unreached , isolated and sometimes dangerous areas of the world, but needed a medical cover to be allowed to preach.Over time i enlarged my mission size and contacts.There are several church affiliated groups and NGOs looking for physicians to help.I finally founded my own 501 c-3 corporation.I also do surgical pathology for missionary surgeons in GHANA.Pathology is difficult to obtain in many third world countries.

 

[yaah]

Sometimes institutions technically list that they have "residency spots" even though they don't plan on filling them, I think the reason being that it's a lot harder to get a spot back once you give it up than to just not fill it for a few years. At my residency program, they always had two dermpath spots but only filled one until starting a few years ago. So maybe this is a good thing - some programs are actually shrinking their residency. I am not in academics though, so I don't really know.

 

[icpshootyz]

It could be our dead outlook on life..Maybe you are right.

I really don't care what people believe but I have lost count of the "card carrying" atheists I have ran into in this field. There are other pathology listservs/blogs online with these liberal dbags who love to show their intellectual superiority over the "believers". All they accomplished was chasing away the decent posters on the sites.

When do I get my card? I must have missed when they were handing them out...

 

[gbwillner]

When do I get my card? I must have missed when they were handing them out...

You get them from Ron Reagan. He gives them out after the weekly bake sale fundraiser.

 

[dr.weiner]

I'd say this forum goes a long way in contributing to the decrease in US grads applying. It's one of the few online resources out there with practicing pathologists. Unfortunately the trolls are the loudest and discourage people from even doing a rotation. The happy people in path (the vast majority) have better things to do than troll this forum. Unfortunately people like yaah who constantly offer the reasonable contrarian opinion are few and far between. I don't blame them. It has to be exhausting.

I guess I should relish my personal job security and marketability but I just feel bad for the lack of self respect that people have for their own livelihood and whatever circumstances lead them to this level of self loathing. I also think pathologists have the most free time at a computer than any other field and this contributes to the problem.

Life isn't perfect, but path was the only field in medicine I could actually enjoy on a daily basis, I make more money per hour (40-45 hours a week) and have more vacation than most people in medicine. I have absolutely no regrets about my specialty choice. SDN was helpful for me but I had to sift through the doom and gloom 10 years ago to check the field out for myself to really figure it out what it entailed. I recommend that anyone the least bit interested should do the same.

But what I do I know, I'm just a practicing pathologist and have been a member of this forum for over a decade.

 

[gbwillner]

I'd say this forum goes a long way in contributing to the decrease in US grads applying. It's one of the few online resources out there with practicing pathologists. Unfortunately the trolls are the loudest and discourage people from even doing a rotation. The happy people in path (the vast majority) have better things to do than troll this forum. Unfortunately people like yaah who constantly offer the reasonable contrarian opinion are few and far between. I don't blame them. It has to be exhausting.

I guess I should relish my personal job security and marketability but I just feel bad for the lack of self respect that people have for their own livelihood and whatever circumstances lead them to this level of self loathing. I also think pathologists have the most free time at a computer than any other field and this contributes to the problem.

Life isn't perfect, but path was the only field in medicine I could actually enjoy on a daily basis, I make more money per hour (40-45 hours a week) and have more vacation than most people in medicine. I have absolutely no regrets about my specialty choice. SDN was helpful for me but I had to sift through the doom and gloom 10 years ago to check the field out for myself to really figure it out what it entailed. I recommend that anyone the least bit interested should do the same.

But what I do I know, I'm just a practicing pathologist and have been a member of this forum for over a decade.

I think a point that is often overlooked is that, despite the market issues/pressures on our field, as noted above, we tend to do better monetarily than most other docs. We might make 70 cents on the dollar sometimes, but those dollars tend to be great in number. Peds and family docs in general don't make anywhere near what we make. Now, of course there are some who own their own practices and make a lot of money, but they are not the norm. We are also not on par with what our most closely interacting docs (oncologists, surgeons) make. But I think we have been very myopic on this forum, and things for the average pathologist are not as dim as would seem.

 

[y2k_free_radical]

I think a point that is often overlooked is that, despite the market issues/pressures on our field, as noted above, we tend to do better monetarily than most other docs. We might make 70 cents on the dollar sometimes, but those dollars tend to be great in number. Peds and family docs in general don't make anywhere near what we make. Now, of course there are some who own their own practices and make a lot of money, but they are not the norm. We are also not on par with what our most closely interacting docs (oncologists, surgeons) make. But I think we have been very myopic on this forum, and things for the average pathologist are not as dim as would seem.

I truly hope you two are correct about our sanguine future and we pessimists are wrong.

 

[neoevolution]

I'm a US MD student and we cover normal histology in M1 and pathology in M2, but it's mostly to the extent that's relevant for Step 1. Radiology and derm get similar coverage. I think that's as much exposure as our curriculum can fit considering everything else we need to cover

 

[razor]

I'd say this forum goes a long way in contributing to the decrease in US grads applying. It's one of the few online resources out there with practicing pathologists. Unfortunately the trolls are the loudest and discourage people from even doing a rotation. The happy people in path (the vast majority) have better things to do than troll this forum. Unfortunately people like yaah who constantly offer the reasonable contrarian opinion are few and far between. I don't blame them. It has to be exhausting.

I guess I should relish my personal job security and marketability but I just feel bad for the lack of self respect that people have for their own livelihood and whatever circumstances lead them to this level of self loathing. I also think pathologists have the most free time at a computer than any other field and this contributes to the problem.

Life isn't perfect, but path was the only field in medicine I could actually enjoy on a daily basis, I make more money per hour (40-45 hours a week) and have more vacation than most people in medicine. I have absolutely no regrets about my specialty choice. SDN was helpful for me but I had to sift through the doom and gloom 10 years ago to check the field out for myself to really figure it out what it entailed. I recommend that anyone the least bit interested should do the same.

But what I do I know, I'm just a practicing pathologist and have been a member of this forum for over a decade.

I'm a 4th year DO student matched into pathology. I have nowhere near any of the experience to comment on the status of pathology, but I can tell you I have met several pathologists in my medical school career that echo the above quoted opinion.

I have made it a point to visit with the pathologists at the different hospitals I rotate at. Since I'm a DO, we do most of our rotations at private community hospitals so these aren't academic pathologists just trying to fill their program. These are just happy pathologists out working in the community. Off the top of my head I can count 11 pathologists I met from different hospitals in different cities over the last 2 years of clinical rotations (not counting the faculty/residents at academic centers where I interviewed). Every single one of them loved their job, called pathology "the best kept secret" in medicine, and recommended it to me. When asked about the "job market" in pathology they all pretty much laughed and said that has been the word on the street for 20 years. They admitted getting a job isn't as much of a job-seekers market as primary care, but none of them spoke the doom and gloom on SDN. Also, the ages of these pathologist ranged from <5 years out of residency to near-retirement.

I only bring this up because my face-to-face experience with 11 out of 11 private practice pathologists in the real world is 180 degrees different than this forum would lead the general medical community to think. So, my recommendation to any interested medical student is to walk into the pathology department at every hospital you go to and introduce yourself to the pathologists (my experience was even easier, most of my attendings would take me to the pathologists or email them to introduce me). Ask them for yourself. I'm not saying ignore the posters on this forum, just take it into consideration as useful information, because I respect the fact that people posting on here probably have very valid and real experiences to back up their dismal outlook. I'm not trying to start a "flee pathology now, path is dead" rant; I just wanted to share my perspective as a student for future young'uns in my shoes. Peace.

 

[yaah]

I truly hope you two are correct about our sanguine future and we pessimists are wrong.

Pessimists can never be proven wrong. Their predictions are just delayed awhile, or they will latch on to some specific thing to prove their point. Optimists can have a similar problem although they are at least a lot more pleasant to be around and will typically work hard to keep improving things that they see need to be improved.

I have always been an advocate for nuance and realism. Anecdotes can be informative but are not necessarily trend setting. Trends can be informative but are not necessarily easily understandable or predictive.

The pessimist has the luxury of always dwelling in the negative. When the negative doesn't happen as much as they thought, they just shift that to further into the future. If they don't want to do that, they identify negative trends to focus on amidst the good.

I tend to think it is far too exhausting and useless to be Chicken Little. It gets you nothing. If your fears are confirmed, you don't get a prize, you just get your worst fears confirmed and you can talk about how right you were. That and 25 cents can get you 10 minutes at a parking meter. Personally, I acknowledge the challenges and the difficulties, but work to make the future as good as I can. And I try to surround myself with people who feel the same way. Selfishness only goes so far, and the truly selfish usually end up the most miserable.

If I listened to some people on this forum 13 years ago, I wouldn't be in the greatest career I could have imagined, working with a great group of people, and getting paid well to do something I enjoy and have a talent for. But that being said, you do have to listen to all voices. Understand what you are doing, understand who you are and what you want, and always be prepared and vigilant. So I appreciate the naysayers on this forum as well as the optimists, although I have greater respect for the realists.