What’s your predictions for 2026? Stock market, elections, wars, etc. Anything goes.
2026 predictions
- Thread starter bluc
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Every day in every way pharmacy is getting better and better.
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AI hype will finally die down…so tired of ads for AI slop
I’ll be somewhat contrarian and say it’ll be more of a slow, drawn out death as opposed to a bubble/crash
I’ll be somewhat contrarian and say it’ll be more of a slow, drawn out death as opposed to a bubble/crash
Wars:
Ukraine will run out of soldiers. 2026 will be a decisive year for Russia. Ukraine will give in to Russia’s demands. The only thing that matters is the frontline. Everything else is just a sideshow. The only hope for Ukraine is to get US involve militarily but that is unlikely. Europe won’t support Ukraine militarily without US backing so Ukraine is pretty much done.
There will be another shooting war in Iran. Iran is in a stronger position today. Israel had one chance to take out Iran regime in May but failed. Regime change is less likely now. Israel can’t let Iran have nukes so it will do whatever it takes including using nukes. Although Iran doesn’t have nukes, it can strike Israel nuclear plant so Israel will pay a heavy price. Israel needs the US. I see Trump sending bombers and jet fighters. However, if US soldiers get killed then Trump might be forced to send in ground troops which will be a disaster. US would be tied down in Iran while Russia and China advance their objectives
Trump is back into the corner with Venezuela. He won’t send in ground troops. Right now 15% of US naval assets is off the coast of Venezuela which doesn’t sound a lot but US can only deploy 30-40% of naval assets at one time so 15% is almost 50% of deployable US assets. US has a powerful navy but it is old and needs a lot of maintenance. There could be a compromise tho but I don’t see Maduro going anywhere.
I don’t see China invading Taiwan. Time is on China’s side. Taiwan is deeply divided between pro independence DPP and Beijing friendly KMT. The KMT has so far prevented the DPP from increasing military spending. A war between China and Japan is more likely. Japan will try to get nukes. That is a redline for China. Japan is spending more on its military but it’s a bit too late. The average age in Japan is now 50. It was just 25 before Pearl Harbor attack. China knows Japan is not at its peak. If there is a war then might as well do it now before Japan can hit Beijing with a nuke.
Ukraine will run out of soldiers. 2026 will be a decisive year for Russia. Ukraine will give in to Russia’s demands. The only thing that matters is the frontline. Everything else is just a sideshow. The only hope for Ukraine is to get US involve militarily but that is unlikely. Europe won’t support Ukraine militarily without US backing so Ukraine is pretty much done.
There will be another shooting war in Iran. Iran is in a stronger position today. Israel had one chance to take out Iran regime in May but failed. Regime change is less likely now. Israel can’t let Iran have nukes so it will do whatever it takes including using nukes. Although Iran doesn’t have nukes, it can strike Israel nuclear plant so Israel will pay a heavy price. Israel needs the US. I see Trump sending bombers and jet fighters. However, if US soldiers get killed then Trump might be forced to send in ground troops which will be a disaster. US would be tied down in Iran while Russia and China advance their objectives
Trump is back into the corner with Venezuela. He won’t send in ground troops. Right now 15% of US naval assets is off the coast of Venezuela which doesn’t sound a lot but US can only deploy 30-40% of naval assets at one time so 15% is almost 50% of deployable US assets. US has a powerful navy but it is old and needs a lot of maintenance. There could be a compromise tho but I don’t see Maduro going anywhere.
I don’t see China invading Taiwan. Time is on China’s side. Taiwan is deeply divided between pro independence DPP and Beijing friendly KMT. The KMT has so far prevented the DPP from increasing military spending. A war between China and Japan is more likely. Japan will try to get nukes. That is a redline for China. Japan is spending more on its military but it’s a bit too late. The average age in Japan is now 50. It was just 25 before Pearl Harbor attack. China knows Japan is not at its peak. If there is a war then might as well do it now before Japan can hit Beijing with a nuke.
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There will be market adjustments downward for urban salaries and upward for Certificate of Need rural and hard to fill locations. This time around, hospital pharmacists will start getting cuts (low raises or understaffing) toward their historical balance with retail. There will be silent hiring freezes at most hospitals this and next year. PBM are going to have their massive layoffs around June-July for industry known reasons. Most industry pharmacists in regulatory compliance will find jobs hard to come by if they are laid off this season and about half of those will leave the industry altogether like 2008.
Why is that? Big pharma is slowing down?
Okay, that was fast
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Im actually stuck in UNH stock at this time. Profit margins are diminishing because of the decreased health of their Medicare Advantage customers. There is talk in Congress of targeting the PBMs. However, I will believe it when I see it.
Isn't retail and hospital already down to bare minimum staffing? I'm seeing massive turnover and low applicants, though I am in a state that controlled pharmacy school openings.
