A reminder that a med school's decision is not a statement of your worth or ability!

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aldol16

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I came across this when reading today - a 1979 study that some people on here are no doubt familiar with showing there are really no measurable differences between this group of inteviewed-accepted and interviewed-rejected applicants in terms of medical school and PGY-1 performance. Just a reminder now that decisions are out that no matter what that post-interview decision is, it's not a statement about your worth or ability - you'll be successful anywhere!

http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/363832
 
Thst makes me curious--how do adcoms make their final decision if they are debating betweem 2 excellent applicants and must reject one? Gut feeling? Lottery?
 
Wait what, does anybody go through this with the impression that interviews aim to pick the people that will get the best grades ? I'd be shocked if there was a finding that better interviews predicted different attrition or different grades
 
Thst makes me curious--how do adcoms make their final decision if they are debating betweem 2 excellent applicants and must reject one? Gut feeling? Lottery?

From what I've learned on here from adcoms, it's not really done that way. If they have two excellent applicants, they accept them both. Schools have to accept more applicants than they have seats if they want to fill them all.

The takeaway is that you're not really competing with the guy next to you in the waiting room. You can both get accepted.
 
^ I've never been able to understand this logic tho, every time I think about it, it seems a very straightforward zero-sum system. There is a very narrow target band for class size at every school. It's true that your interview day can end with twice as many admits as a different interview day. But for the school's applicant population overall, it totally is a 1-for-1 system where persons A and B might not be taking spots from each other, but they are taking spots from some X and Y out there.
 
Everyone knows that thetans are the most accurate value criterion to measure the premises of worth and ability.
 
Wait what, does anybody go through this with the impression that interviews aim to pick the people that will get the best grades ? I'd be shocked if there was a finding that better interviews predicted different attrition or different grades

There might be a general feeling that interviews serve to pick applicants who would do well academically at that school and beyond (intern year at least). The study shows that since applicants who were initially rejected post-interview do just as well at the same school as those who were accepted outright, interviews can't decide very well whether interviewees would do well academically at that school. Of course, there are other dimensions that schools look for in interviews to see if you fit in with their mission and culture.
 
There might be a general feeling that interviews serve to pick applicants who would do well academically at that school and beyond (intern year at least). The study shows that since applicants who were initially rejected post-interview do just as well at the same school as those who were accepted outright, interviews can't decide very well whether interviewees would do well academically at that school. Of course, there are other dimensions that schools look for in interviews to see if you fit in with their mission and culture.
I guess I'd never considered people would make a connection between interviews and academic ability. Thought the bolded was common sense and interviews were clearly about assessing you outside academics - are you chill to talk to for a while, excited about the school etc.
 
I guess I'd never considered people would make a connection between interviews and academic ability. Thought the bolded was common sense and interviews were clearly about assessing you outside academics - are you chill to talk to for a while, excited about the school etc.

Not in 1979 apparently! SDN didn't exist back then. Even now, SDN users are not too representative of the complete pre-med population.
 
Not in 1979 apparently! SDN didn't exist back then. Even now, SDN users are not too representative of the complete pre-med population.
I wonder how much the way interviews are evaluated/scored has changed in the past few decades, too
 
Apparently in the 1920s, medical students weren't representative of the physician population.
 
^ I've never been able to understand this logic tho, every time I think about it, it seems a very straightforward zero-sum system. There is a very narrow target band for class size at every school. It's true that your interview day can end with twice as many admits as a different interview day. But for the school's applicant population overall, it totally is a 1-for-1 system where persons A and B might not be taking spots from each other, but they are taking spots from some X and Y out there.

But they're not. Schools offer admission to way more people than they have seats. You are indirectly competing with the medians for GPA and MCAT, but otherwise your biggest competition is yourself. Why would it be a zero sum game?
 
But they're not. Schools offer admission to way more people than they have seats. You are indirectly competing with the medians for GPA and MCAT, but otherwise your biggest competition is yourself. Why would it be a zero sum game?
As long as there is a cascade in which each 1 person getting or turning down a spot means another does not get or gets offered a spot, it's zero sum system. So both an individual school and med admissions overall I think fit the requirements. There is no way for someone to occupy more than one spot or less than one spot and the total number spots is fixed...so yeah it's zero sum as far as I can tell.
 
As long as there is a cascade in which each 1 person getting or turning down a spot means another does not get or gets offered a spot, it's zero sum system. So both an individual school and med admissions overall I think fit the requirements. There is no way for someone to occupy more than one spot or less than one spot and the total number spots is fixed...so yeah it's zero sum as far as I can tell.

The number of students they admit each year is not fixed. Also, the number of students they interview each year is not fixed. It is very, very unlikely that there is a 1-for-1 swap, particularly since they are not directly comparing two applicants in the vast majority of cases.

Edit: if you're considering this like an iterated two player game where individual players only play once, but the game is repeated, it is still not a zero sum game, as one of the players will always be the school, and I think memory is probably not that great from iteration to iteration, meaning that while there may be an overall goal of how many students to admit that year, they are not putting them into specific slots. The payoffs will not zero each other out.
 
The number of students they admit each year is not fixed. Also, the number of students they interview each year is not fixed. It is very, very unlikely that there is a 1-for-1 swap, particularly since they are not directly comparing two applicants in the vast majority of cases.
There's some noise of a couple percent sure, but it's still a system of equally gained and lost utility. Like if a second look weekend event went horribly wrong and 50 admitted students intending to matriculate got sucked into another dimension, how many new people would gain class membership? About 50. Without the first group being removed the second group never gets that access.

Idk man maybe I'm not able to communicate it right but if you set it up as hundreds of players with loaves of bread or something you'd end up with a very messy but clearly zero-sum system (plus or minus a couple loaves)
 
There's some noise of a couple percent sure, but it's still a system of equally gained and lost utility. Like if a second look weekend event went horribly wrong and 50 admitted students intending to matriculate got sucked into another dimension, how many new people would gain class membership? About 50. Without the first group being removed the second group never gets that access.

Why? They admit like 350 people or something for 100 spots. If 50 people got sucked out, they may admit some more, but I doubt they'd feel like they had to replace those 50. I don't think it's just noise. If you had 100 seats and only admitted 100 people, then yes I would say it is definitely a zero sum game.

Idk man maybe I'm not able to communicate it right but if you set it up as hundreds of players with loaves of bread or something you'd end up with a very messy but clearly zero-sum system (plus or minus a couple loaves)

Lol no I get what you're saying. I just think you're trying to force it into a zero sum game. I think it certainly could be a zero sum game if you wanted it to be, but I don't think it is.

I think to accurately set this up, it would probably have to be a series of two player games where the players are the school and applicant_{n}. The strategies could be admit, waitlist, and reject for th school and matriculate or go elsewhere for the applicant. The payoffs for the applicant would not be fixed across the population, as each applicant's stats and app will be different. Additionally, the payoffs for the school will depend not only on the makeup of the applicants they have already admitted (to include the number to some extent), but also on the attractiveness of the applicant and the likelihood of her attending.

As the game iterates, the payoffs for both will be affected by the games each player is involved in (with other applicants for the school and with other schools for the applicant). These changes will not necessarily be inversely proportional to each other, which you'd expect in a zero sum game. It is perfectly reasonable to expect that the payoff for admitting an applicant may increase while the payoff for matriculating may also increase.

To make a long story longer, it will be messy, but it will ultimately not be zero sum (IMHO--I'm actually interested in seeing this out now).
 
I saw this too... it was on reddit somewhere. I forgot where. Was it /r/medicine?
 
@Matthew9Thirtyfive Nash equilibrium. Non-cooperative game theory.

Not every game will have a Nash equilibrium, and the presence of an NE does not imply a zero sum game. It simply implies that that strategy pair is the optimal strategy for each player.

If the Row player is the school and the Column player is the applicant, then the payoff matrix may look something like this:

A R
M 10,10 0,5
DM 8,0 8,8

M is plan to matriculate, DM is don't matriculate, and A and R are admit and reject, respectively. These are arbitrary values. The set (M,A) has the best payoff here because the school wants you and you want to attend. Planning to matriculate and getting rejected sucks for you, but may not suck too badly for the school. However, it's not great either. If you don't plan on going for whatever reason, but the school wants you then it's fine for you and crappy for them. If you don't plan on going there, but they reject you anyway, then it's pretty okay.

There are still two NEs here, but it is not a zero sum game, as the payoffs do not equal the loss of the other player.

And just FYI, zero sum games are strictly competitive, while non-zero sum games are not.

Edit: I'm on my phone so it formatted weird and won't fix. Sorry. You can think of it as similar to a stag hunt game. Or even just a symmetrical game if you adjust the payoffs. Doesn't matter since it's just for illustration.
 
This all depends on your ideas about units of utility, I think. If you count happiness/fit, like if you consider a student attending place A vs place B to have different levels of utility depending on who wants who the most, then it def isn't zero sum.

It's when you think of a seat in a med school as the universal unit of utility that it becomes zero sum. Seats aren't created or lost (save rare instances like someone deferring a year when it's too late to replace them) and no winning player can consume more or less than one seat, and consuming a seat does mean someone else on a waitlist somewhere will not get a seat.
 
This all depends on your ideas about units of utility, I think. If you count happiness/fit, like if you consider a student attending place A vs place B to have different levels of utility depending on who wants who the most, then it def isn't zero sum.

It's when you think of a seat in a med school as the universal unit of utility that it becomes zero sum. Seats aren't created or lost (save rare instances like someone deferring a year when it's too late to replace them) and no winning player can consume more or less than one seat, and consuming a seat does mean someone else on a waitlist somewhere will not get a seat.

If you want to strip the game down to literally offer seat/don't offer seat and take seat/don't take seat, and you limit the number of people who are offered seats to a fixed amount within a fixed population, then yes it will at least resemble a zero sum game if not become one fully.

But that is not reality, so what's the point in discussing that? You don't have to strip a game that far down to easily model it. Even the model I pulled out of my ass up there is a fair representation of one interaction for some applicant_{n}. You'd just have to assign metrics to adjust the payoffs as you go, which will complicate things a bit, but too much so. That's the game we are discussing, because that more closely resembles reality, and it is definitely not zero sum.
 
If you want to strip the game down to literally offer seat/don't offer seat and take seat/don't take seat, and you limit the number of people who are offered seats to a fixed amount within a fixed population, then yes it will at least resemble a zero sum game if not become one fully.

But that is not reality, so what's the point in discussing that? You don't have to strip a game that far down to easily model it. Even the model I pulled out of my ass up there is a fair representation of one interaction for some applicant_{n}. You'd just have to assign metrics to adjust the payoffs as you go, which will complicate things a bit, but too much so. That's the game we are discussing, because that more closely resembles reality, and it is definitely not zero sum.
I think both resemble reality. It's asking questions about people being happy with where they go, vs being able to go. You can talk about poker being non-zero-sum because some people take losses harder than others emotionally, but that's not what most people are asking about when they want to model utility in poker games.
 
I think both resemble reality. It's asking questions about people being happy with where they go, vs being able to go. You can talk about poker being non-zero-sum because some people take losses harder than others emotionally, but that's not what most people are asking about when they want to model utility in poker games.

Med school admissions isn't a poker game. In poker, you are directly taking money from the other players. That is always a zero sum game. If you want to include other things, that is no longer just a poker game. Med school admissions is not applicant A taking a seat from applicant B. In fact, from what adcoms seem to say on this forum, it is almost never like that. You have to ignore significant parts of constructing the payoff matrix in order to turn it into a strictly-competitive zero sum game. That does not resemble reality except in the most Hunger Games version of med school admissions possible, which exists only in applicants' minds.

Edit: simplifying the strategies does not simplify the payoffs, nor does it demand a zero sum description. Even in my example, the strategies were simple: matriculate/don't matriculate, admit/reject. But the payoffs still account for turning down admission to a different school, not getting to go to medical school at all, having your admit to matriculate ratio be high versus low, not filling your seats or overfilling, etc.

The point is that a zero sum game is defined as a game in which the payoffs for one player are equal to the negative of the payoffs for the other player. That is the actual definition: A_{ij} = -B_{ij}. Clearly this is not the case for med school admissions.
 
Med school admissions isn't a poker game. In poker, you are directly taking money from the other players. That is always a zero sum game. If you want to include other things, that is no longer just a poker game. Med school admissions is not applicant A taking a seat from applicant B. In fact, from what adcoms seem to say on this forum, it is almost never like that. You have to ignore significant parts of constructing the payoff matrix in order to turn it into a strictly-competitive zero sum game. That does not resemble reality except in the most Hunger Games version of med school admissions possible, which exists only in applicants' minds.
It is, just not in a head-to-head. Phrase it this way: if you had to read 600 poems and had to pick 200 favorites to award prize money to, was this competition zero sum in the awarding of utility? I thought the answer to this was yes. Perhaps it is no since you aren't reading sets of three and picking one favorite in each set?
 
Depending on your mindset entering the application cycle, the fact to get rejected from all med schools applied to can hurt a lot emotionally and financially.
But yes, one application cycle can't define your worthiness. And there's always future cycles to show what you have gained from your previous experiences.
 
It is, just not in a head-to-head. Phrase it this way: if you had to read 600 poems and had to pick 200 favorites to award prize money to, was this competition zero sum in the awarding of utility? I thought the answer to this was yes. Perhaps it is no since you aren't reading sets of three and picking one favorite in each set?

We're getting into something else here. Are we seeing how two poets interact, where one of them moves on and the other does not? That's kind of the only way to approach this from a GT perspective, and in fact it will resemble an EGT game, where each of the players is a random poet, interacting with each other at each step in the game. The strategies would have to be "win/lose" for both. The payoff for winning could be 10, the payoff for losing could be -10, and then a tie would result in a 0,0, which would simply send it back into the fray. This would be a zero sum game.

If you're modeling it as one person choosing poems, then you're into decision theory, which is really game theory for single agent games. But that's something else entirely and not really apropos.

But this isn't the same thing as med school admissions.

Say we have 100 seats and 1000 applicants. There is not a fixed number of admission offers that must be made. It is flexible and can change depending on how many excellent applicants the admissions committee sees. That alone eliminates much of the head-to-head-ness of the process, since now if two candidates are down to the last spot, the committee can simply choose to give them both offers of admissions, since it is just as likely that one or both of them will not attend.

We are not whittling down the pool of 1000 applicants to 100, where the other 900 are losers, like with the poems. We are simply making a choice to admit or reject individual students based on A) whether we think they'll actually attend, and B) if they meet our standards (this is simplified, obviously). The applicants are choosing whether to matriculate based on A) if they have any other offers, B) if they would rather go there than not matriculate anywhere, and C) if their other offers are more appealing.

So if you look at it superficially from certain angles, it may seem zero sum. If I don't attend school A and attend school B, I've made a zero sum decision because A loses out on me and B does not. But that's not the game. That's just a consequence of the game. The game is whether or not I (want to) attend and whether or not the school admits me. That is not zero sum, because they don't necessarily lose out if I win. In other words, A_{ij} != -B_{ij} for all i,j.
 
There is not a fixed number of admission offers that must be made
I've been trying to call it a zero-sum system rather than game because the applicants don't actually interact with each other in the process. I don't think it's a real term but don't know what else to call a system in which people individually compete for a limited amount of utility being dispensed, in which the net value at the end of the process are the same no matter how it gets distributed (in this case, total # asses in seats in med schools). I'm also not considering at all what the med schools want, only the competitor perspective.

Anyways, I think a big part of this is disagreement about the above. I think there is a very tightly fixed number of people a school has interview spots for, and from among interviewed students, a very tightly fixed number of admits and waitlists that goes out. Schools don't go into the cycle wondering to themselves hmmm, wonder how many people will be interesting enough to interview or impressive enough to admit this time around. They go in knowing they can interview 700, from that admit 200 to fill their class most of the way because almost exactly 50% matriculate with high reliability, and then that they should make a waitlist of 75 or so from which they'll end up trickling in the last 25 offers to hit their target class size, plus or minus a couple heads.

In keeping with this is the process that schools use - it's not a hand waiving "yeah they're cool enough I guess, it's just another interview/admit" type of thing. Instead they first give the offers to the standouts, then have to go back for additional rounds of review and release the last waves of interviews bit by bit, making hard choices on how to spend their limited spots. If California finally seceded from the union this summer and suddenly 150 badass applicants to HMS withdrew their apps in July, I believe it would mean 150 lucky others would now be getting interviews, not that there would be 150 less interviews conducted there that year.
 
I've been trying to call it a zero-sum system rather than game because the applicants don't actually interact with each other in the process. I don't think it's a real term but don't know what else to call a system in which people individually compete for a limited amount of utility being dispensed, in which the net value at the end of the process are the same no matter how it gets distributed (in this case, total # asses in seats in med schools). I'm also not considering at all what the med schools want, only the competitor perspective.

That's not really how games work though. If you take away one of the players, that doesn't suddenly make it a zero sum game.

And even though the individual applicants aren't interacting, there is still a game going on. The applicants are simply interacting with the schools. That is the med school admissions game. By ignoring that, you're changing the game to something that doesn't resemble reality. Since the applicants don't interact, you can't say they are competing or not competing. They are just playing simultaneously in different games that experience overlap only in their own payoffs.

Anyways, I think a big part of this is disagreement about the above. I think there is a very tightly fixed number of people a school has interview spots for, and from among interviewed students, a very tightly fixed number of admits and waitlists that goes out. Schools don't go into the cycle wondering to themselves hmmm, wonder how many people will be interesting enough to interview or impressive enough to admit this time around. They go in knowing they can interview 700, from that admit 200 to fill their class most of the way because almost exactly 50% matriculate with high reliability, and then that they should make a waitlist of 75 or so from which they'll end up trickling in the last 25 offers to hit their target class size, plus or minus a couple heads.

If it were that regimented, then why did we have the SNAFU in NY? From what I've gathered on here, part of the admissions dean's job is to figure out how many offers to extend based on previous years. It probably doesn't change too much year to year, but it still isn't fixed. There is not a firm cap at which one applicant will make it and the other won't should two final applicants be interviewed.

Additionally, even if we assume that the number of offers is fixed, it still is not a zero sum game. You can then say that there is a zero sum type process going on insofar as some applicants will get the positive payoff while the rest will not, but that's not how the game works because the applicants don't interact. Just because a school doesn't admit an applicant because there aren't enough seats doesn't mean A_{ij} = -B_{ij}.

But that upper bound is not a fixed upper bound anyway, so that is moot.

In keeping with this is the process that schools use - it's not a hand waiving "yeah they're cool enough I guess, it's just another interview/admit" type of thing. Instead they first give the offers to the standouts, then have to go back for additional rounds of review and release the last waves of interviews bit by bit, making hard choices on how to spend their limited spots. If California finally seceded from the union this summer and suddenly 150 badass applicants to HMS withdrew their apps in July, I believe it would mean 150 lucky others would now be getting interviews, not that there would be 150 less interviews conducted there that year.

Maybe, maybe not. But as above, I don't think it changes much.
 
That's not really how games work though. If you take away one of the players, that doesn't suddenly make it a zero sum game.

And even though the individual applicants aren't interacting, there is still a game going on. The applicants are simply interacting with the schools. That is the med school admissions game. By ignoring that, you're changing the game to something that doesn't resemble reality. Since the applicants don't interact, you can't say they are competing or not competing. They are just playing simultaneously in different games that experience overlap only in their own payoffs.
You're losing me here. It's totally possible to compete individually for something without interaction. Maybe we fail at the first step of even agreeing what counts as a zero sum competition then - lets take an Olympic individual swim event. Everyone just does their best and then gold/silver/bronze get awarded. If I get gold I'm denying someone else gold (though they might get silver). Collectively, three people will walk away having picked up all the utility in the pool (pun intended) at the expense of anyone else getting any. Do we agree on describing this as zero-sum, non-interacting, but clearly competing?

If it were that regimented, then why did we have the SNAFU in NY?
Because they tried to run admissions your way!

Anyways I think the above has to get cleared up before anything else. It might just be that I'm using "zero-sum" in a different way and we're arguing semantics rather than having different understandings of the process.
 
You're losing me here. It's totally possible to compete individually for something without interaction. Maybe we fail at the first step of even agreeing what counts as a zero sum competition then - lets take an Olympic individual swim event. Everyone just does their best and then gold/silver/bronze get awarded. If I get gold I'm denying someone else gold (though they might get silver). Collectively, three people will walk away having picked up all the utility in the pool (pun intended) at the expense of anyone else getting any. Do we agree on describing this as zero-sum, non-interacting, but clearly competing?

Yes, this is definitely a zero sum situation, as your payoff is the inverse of your competition's. And in fact, I'd argue that this actually can be modeled as interacting quite easily as a stag hunt game.

But I'm not disagreeing with your definition of zero sum. What I'm disagreeing with is your assertion that med school admissions is zero sum. I totally see why you're saying it is, but my point is that you have to change the game into something it's not in order to make it zero sum.

I think a decent analogy would be in bench research. When you do something in vivo, you can isolate a process and stripping away everything else that occurs in vivo. So you can say that in vitro, compound X kills cancer cells. But that may not necessarily be the case in vivo, because it's more complicated than that.

Yes, there is some zero sum aspect because some people will get seats and some won't, but that only applies if you remove the rest of the game. The med school admissions game in vivo is not zero sum, but it may be in vitro depending on how you set it up.

Does that make sense?

Because they tried to run admissions your way!

Fair enough. But I just seriously doubt that there is a completely fixed number of admission offers they have to make. If it comes down to giving a few more offers to get a couple extra candidates they love, I just don't see them turning them down. Obviously that school took it to the extreme and failed to reign it in, but that is neither here nor there.

And as I said above, the presence of a fixed limit doesn't actually change my argument.

Anyways I think the above has to get cleared up before anything else. It might just be that I'm using "zero-sum" in a different way and we're arguing semantics rather than having different understandings of the process.

As I mentioned above, I think it's that we're talking about two different versions of the same game. You're breaking it down and isolating one aspect of the game's consequences, and I'm talking about the game as a whole.
 
Yeah I think we're understanding each other. When I hear people say "admissions isn't zero sum" (Goro says this a lot) I always took it to mean "X people getting seats does not mean ~X seats will be denied to others." I think that's incorrect. If you start considering whether applicants are happier to go to certain places, or start considering school perspective and think about certain matriculations being more value to them than to another school, then it totally loses all semblance of zero-sum.
 
Yeah I think we're understanding each other. When I hear people say "admissions isn't zero sum" (Goro says this a lot) I always took it to mean "X people getting seats does not mean ~X seats will be denied to others." I think that's incorrect. If you start considering whether applicants are happier to go to certain places, or start considering school perspective and think about certain matriculations being more value to them than to another school, then it totally loses all semblance of zero-sum.

I think even at its base level, it may not seem completely zero sum because you are not necessarily taking a seat from someone, but that may be explained by noise as you pointed out earlier. Ultimately x number of people will get offers and y number of people won't.

But even just factoring in an applicant's other options or GPA/MCAT changes it from zero sum, because now we're actually playing the game, and the players are the schools and the applicants. That's a non-zero sum game.

I'm betting goro and the other adcoms want to make sure people feel that it's not zero sum because it helps ease some tension in the interview process. If you don't picture the other people there as your competition, you can relax a bit.
 
I agree with @efle, and I think UCSF is the perfect example of the concept. The admissions dean at UCSF is very clear about the post-II admissions process, and he says that after the interview, they accept 1/3 of applicants, waitlist 1/3, and reject 1/3. Every time the committee holds a meeting to vote on candidates, each adcom member must vote for an equal number of accepts, waitlists, and rejects. This means that if they are considering an exceptional group of candidates, adcoms may use up all their 'accept' votes and be forced to waitlist or reject solid candidates that they would otherwise have accepted if the interview group wasn't so competitive. Thus, candidates are directly competing with each other, at least in the case of UCSF. I wish all schools were so open about the admit process, it would be interesting to know how it works at other schools.
 
Very interesting they would have a rule like that when I imagine the early interview cohorts would be stronger than the tail end interview cohorts. Why only accept 1/3rd of the initial superstars just to also accept 1/3rd of the people that barely made the cut? Would make more sense to limit total admits you can vote for in the cycle, rather than per meeting.
 
Yeah they made a big point of saying that everyone, regardless of interview date, had an equal shot at post-II acceptance. I think it's an interesting strategy, since it does seem likely they would invite their strongest candidates first, and then they would have to reject a third of them. Maybe they don't want to risk filling up all their seats before meeting later interviewees who might make a stellar impression in person? It still seems quite odd to me.
 
I agree with @efle, and I think UCSF is the perfect example of the concept. The admissions dean at UCSF is very clear about the post-II admissions process, and he says that after the interview, they accept 1/3 of applicants, waitlist 1/3, and reject 1/3. Every time the committee holds a meeting to vote on candidates, each adcom member must vote for an equal number of accepts, waitlists, and rejects. This means that if they are considering an exceptional group of candidates, adcoms may use up all their 'accept' votes and be forced to waitlist or reject solid candidates that they would otherwise have accepted if the interview group wasn't so competitive. Thus, candidates are directly competing with each other, at least in the case of UCSF. I wish all schools were so open about the admit process, it would be interesting to know how it works at other schools.

You're mistaking a strategy for the game. That would be UCSF's strategy profile, but that does not make the game zero sum.

I get where you guys are coming from, and at this point we are arguing semantics. But it really just boils down to A_{ij} != -B_{ij} which means it is by definition not a zero sum game. One player may be using a strategy profile that is effectively zero sum or close to it, but that is not the same thing and does not force the payoffs for the other player to the inverse.
 
If I'm making wagers on coin tosses and my losses are distributed in random proportions among a bunch of other people, is this zero sum?
 
Depending on your mindset entering the application cycle, the fact to get rejected from all med schools applied to can hurt a lot emotionally and financially.
But yes, one application cycle can't define your worthiness. And there's always future cycles to show what you have gained from your previous experiences.

2 cycles can define your worthiness though
 
I'm not trying to claim that the post-interview admissions process is a zero sum game, but rather acknowledging that candidates are still competing with each other at the interview stage. Two candidates may not be directly compared, but that doesn't mean each candidate isn't competing with the interview group as a whole.
You're mistaking a strategy for the game. That would be UCSF's strategy profile, but that does not make the game zero sum.

I get where you guys are coming from, and at this point we are arguing semantics. But it really just boils down to A_{ij} != -B_{ij} which means it is by definition not a zero sum game. One player may be using a strategy profile that is effectively zero sum or close to it, but that is not the same thing and does not force the payoffs for the other player to the inverse.
 
If I'm making wagers on coin tosses and my losses are distributed in random proportions among a bunch of other people, is this zero sum?

A strict wager between you and another player where one player wins and one looses (or ties) is zero sum. However you distribute the winnings is irrelevant unless you are taking that into account.

For example, consider non-linear public goods games such as the resource sharing game between different cells where one cell is a producer cell and one cell is a non-producer. Having producer cells ensures the population survives, so even though producing comes with a cost as opposed to freeloading, a portion of the population will do it because the payoff is still greater than having no producer cells. This is actually a pretty interesting phenomenon that goes contrary to the freeloader problem in cooperative games, which gave rise to the non-linear public good.

So if you are playing a matching pennies game or a coin toss game, then the win/lose/draw aspect will be zero sum as it is strictly competitive. But your decision to share or not share with others will not be zero sum as it is non-strictly competitive and may be cooperative, as sharing may give you a greater payoff than not sharing.
 
I'm not trying to claim that the post-interview admissions process is a zero sum game, but rather acknowledging that candidates are still competing with each other at the interview stage. Two candidates may not be directly compared, but that doesn't mean each candidate isn't competing with the interview group as a whole.

They aren't. The applicant pool is significantly larger than the interview group of any given day, and admissions decisions are not made on the day's candidates on a daily basis. So while at some point you may be indirectly compared to someone who happened to be at the same interview day as you, that is a coincidence.

Group interviews are a different story and will likely add some amount of direct competition.
 
But admissions decisions are often made on a weekly or monthly basis, which means sometimes the pool you're being compared to consists of only a few interview groups. At some schools, it can be only a single interview group. So the pool isn't always large enough that the competitiveness of your interview group has a negligible effect on your admissions decision.

They aren't. The applicant pool is significantly larger than the interview group of any given day, and admissions decisions are not made on the day's candidates on a daily basis. So while at some point you may be indirectly compared to someone who happened to be at the same interview day as you, that is a coincidence.

Group interviews are a different story and will likely add some amount of direct competition.
 
But admissions decisions are often made on a weekly or monthly basis, which means sometimes the pool you're being compared to consists of only a few interview groups. At some schools, it can be only a single interview group. So the pool isn't always large enough that the competitiveness of your interview group has a negligible effect on your admissions decision.

Right. What I meant was that they aren't sitting down at the end of each day and saying, okay we have 10 spots today and we had 20 interviewers. Who gets in and who doesn't?

But even if it did, that wouldn't make the game zero sum simply because of the payoffs. Having a zero sum strategy doesn't make the game zero sum. It just means one of the players is using a competitive strategy. Does that mean the other player should play the game with a zero sum strategy? Maybe, maybe not. It depends on the payoffs, but I doubt it since the most beneficial strategy will still be to admit a good candidate who is likely to attend. If you are not such a great candidate and you have other options, the payoffs change. You have to analyze the field.

Ultimately, this game is going to be a signaling game. Player One (the school) is going to make their decision first, and they have to make that decision based on the signals Player Two (the applicant) gives them. Player Two wants to signal to them that they are a good applicant who wants to attend their school more than the others, effectively convincing Player One that they will both cooperate and reap the largest payoff.

But Player One has to determine if that signal is trustworthy based on the information they have. If they cooperate and Player Two defects, then they lose out. If they both defect, then they both get a discounted payoff, but it's better than the former.

This game will never be zero sum even if the school treats it as such when determining how many people to admit.
 
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