AAMC section bank P/S #50

[bluequestions]

Hey guys, this is a question from the psych/socio section in section bank. I chose B but the correct answer is A. I was just wondering, looking at this pyramid, it looks like the last stage of demographic transition, which is marked by low birth rate, low death rate, and a stabilizing population size. But the answer key says given the population has high component of old people, the overall population size will get smaller over time. Can anyone explain how do I reconcile these two kind of contradictory concepts? Thanks!

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[Kokonaut]

At first glance it seems a large segment of the population is geriatric. I would imagine it suggests the death rate will exceed the birth rate. Perhaps it is indicative of a graying of the population or a country nearer to ZPG?


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[aldol16]

There actually is a stage 5 in the theory that isn't in the classical demographic transition theory and this is where the population declines. This is actually happening in several European countries as well as in Japan. The replacement level fertility isn't really being met and so the population declines over time. For this specific question, I didn't use any theories or models - I just looked at the data, which sometimes is the best way of looking at raw data. There are many old people and few young people in this pyramid. This means that the fertility rate has been declining, i.e. older people had more babies when they were younger, leading to the inverted pyramid structure. So what happens is imagine the trend continuing. The bottom maintains its width but the "baby boomers" die off and the width becomes narrower overall. You're left with a smaller population.

 

[bluequestions]

Ok, thank you, guess I'll just rely on data more sometimes. Thanks!

 

[itsalwayssunny96]

Ok, thank you, guess I'll just rely on data more sometimes. Thanks!

Woah wait. The correct answer is A. I just did this question like 2 weeks ago.
Edit: Just saw that you chose B. My bad.