This is a complicated question primarily because we dont have good data. In the US there are approximately 4500 seats for incoming students. The number of applicants ranges between 10,000 and 20,000, if you believe what you read on this board. Lets say 15,000 this cycle (I hope it's less). So just using these numbers an applicant in the US has a 30% chance of acceptance. However, like I said its complicated. If you are fortunate enough to live in a state such as Georgia or Mississippi (and you apply to your states school) you chances go way up since you are only competing against the states applicant pool (they take zero from out of state). Conversely if you are not from these states you chances go down (but only slightly). Now we really dont know what the acceptance rate is to the individual schools. What we do know is the approximate number of applicants each school has and the class size (number of matriculents). From this we can calculate the chances of an applicant attending a school (slightly different from the schools acceptance rate). Using historical data for UW, (I think this is from 2004, 700 applicants for 55 seats) the chance of an applicant matriculating is around 7.9%. Given the apparent increased number of applicants for this cycle you number of 6.3% acceptance rate may very well be correct. The real question in my mind is how many applicants are there total this cycle?