From my understanding, you're all pretty spot-on. Here's my impression:
1) A few people on hold get accepted around the May 15th deadline.
2) I'm not sure if everyone on hold gets offered a spot on the waitlist, but I have an inkling this is true (e.g. last year there were *exactly* 167 people on the waitlist--who makes that their quota?)
3) Last year the waitlist came out the second week of June due to some in-house error(s) (so I hear), but the year before I think it came out May 15th
4) We did go to #77 last year. Historically, they make it to about 100, but seeing how competitive it has been this year and last year, I am going to predict it'll be more like 77 again.
5) Waiting bites. But if you really want to be at OHSU, it's totally worth it. I felt like those months were worth waiting to spend the next, as-yet toughest, four years of my life here.
6) And once you start, no one asks you what number you were on the waitlist, what your MCAT scores were, or your undergrad GPA, and no one cares when you got in.
I kept telling myself I'd rather wait for good news that hear bad news sooner...but waiting is no fun.
Best of luck to those on hold 🙂