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Amcas: # of applicants applying in 2000?

Discussion in 'Pre-Medical - MD' started by Jacky, Jan 25, 2001.

  1. Jacky

    Jacky Member 10+ Year Member

    Oct 24, 2000
    Denver, Colorado, USA
    Does anyone know how many applied this cycle through amcas (for class 2001)? The deadline for applying through amcas must have passed, right? I want to know if the trend is continuing to decline (with reference to # of applicants). Thanks in advance. Also, pray for more shows like "the practice" and fewer of "gidean's (spelling?) crossing" to further cripple the appeal of medicine. Come on, everyone! All together!! Medicine...Bad. Litigation...good.
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  3. wooo

    wooo Senior Member 10+ Year Member

    Aug 2, 2000
    I am not sure about AAMCAS, but my state's school has a 20% increase over last year.
  4. Mango

    Mango Very Senior Member 10+ Year Member

    Apr 30, 2000
    I hope this doesn't seem pessimistic, but I thought I should point out a pretty important caveat. That is that even though the number of applicants has been steadily dropping over the last few years, the average GPA and MCAT scores of ADMITTED students has been steadily RISING. That means that the applicant pool has basically been improving, making admissions (arguably) more difficult.

    Please don't think my intent in posting this is to scare you. It is only to point out that dropping numbers do not equal dropping standards. It is my belief that any person who dreams of pursuing med school should do so! You owe yourself a chance. Try not to get too caught up in statistics and average GPA's. Just go for it! [​IMG]

    Good Luck, Mango MS-1

    [This message has been edited by Mango (edited 01-26-2001).]
  5. Mango,

    I agree that MCAT and GPA have been on the rise perhaps even with a declining applicant pool... but the fact that the applicant pool is declining in itself should make it EASIER to get admitted, although the decrease is not enough that one person would probably be able to perceive a difference.

    The only way it would be harder to get into med school with a declining applicant pool is if the med schools started accepting fewer students every year. I dont think thats been happening but who can speak to this issue? Do med schools look at the number of applicants and adjust their entering class size based on how many are applying?

    "There is nothing more powerful on this Earth as a man who has nothing to lose. It does not take ten such men to change the world--one will do." Elijah Mohammed
  6. zo


    I think what has happened is that the increased difficulty in gaining acceptance turns away a lot of borderline students now.
    Years ago when medical sch. was easier to get into lots of people applied.

    For instance, I was an undergraduate during the early 90's. When you picked up a medical school admissions guide (i still have mine) during these years there were a lot of schools that posted averages of 3.3 gpa and 9's on the mcat. (M.D. schools not D.O.) All my advisors told me that my 3.5 and 10's would definately get me in. When I applied in 1996 there was a huge influx of appl. with these numbers. I did not get in... to my dismay.

    Over the last 5 years people with the 3.3 -3.5 and 30s just go b-school or law or IT. ..and are rich! Those with 3.6+ and 32+ only apply. This has been the case with my friends.

    The other day A college freshman approached me and asked what it takes of get into medical school. I told him a 3.7 and 32+. I scared him! When I was a college freshman and asked that same question to my "elders" they told me a 3.4 and 30. I said "wow, I thought it would be harder!"

  7. I have to disagree. If we're seeing a significant decrease in overall applicants while the admissions standards rise, it strongly suggests two causes. First, that much of the loss in applicants comes from the bottom end of the applicant pool; second, there is a slight increase in the stats of the upper ~quartile of applicants. The former cause would have no effect on admissions (these folks would not normally make it into school on their first try anyway), while the latter would actually make admissions more competitive.

    As a casual analogy, imagine if you took the Bears out of the NFL. Would that make it any easier for other teams to get to the Super Bowl? Not really, because the Bears weren't really competitive anyway.

  8. Hercules

    Hercules Son of Zeus 10+ Year Member

    Jul 25, 2000
    Mobile, AL
    Nice analogy drfermin!


    But there is also a time for sleeping.
    -Odysseus in the Odyssey 11.330-331
  9. drfermin,

    I understand your point but I think we do have some evidence that it is (by the slightest of margins) easier to get in now than in was for example in 1996.

    Look at the percentage of applicants who got accepted somewhere. That percentage has increased (albeit very slightly) over the last few years. Nowadays close to 45% get accepted somewhere... about 5 or 6 years ago that number was closer to 35% or so.

    If you look at the AMCAS data, med schools have accepted about the same number of students every year. With a declining applicant pool, a larger percentage of those who apply will get accepted SOMEWHERE.

    Looking at it from an individual standpoint, an applicant who applied in 1996 who is applying now probably would not sense a difference, but by and large from a national standpoint it is slightly easier to get into a med school somewhere than it was in 1996 when the applicant pool was at its peak.

    Data from the last 5 years: (AMCAS)

    Year Applicants Accepted % Accepted

    1996 46967 16201 34.49%
    1997 43018 16165 37.58%
    1998 40998 16170 39.44%
    1999 38449 16221 42.19%
    2000 37092 16301 43.95%

    You can question the value of statistics as I do sometimes, but if anything there is more evidence that it is slightly easier to get in than the converse (that it is harder to get in these days).

    Assuming that the recent downward trend is not a fluke (which it might be due to possible temporary uncertainty of the healthcare profession) then in the future it will get even easier to get admitted from a statistical standpoint UNLESS MED SCHOOLS START ACCEPTING FEWER STUDENTS EVERY YEAR.

    I actually hope the med school applicant pool increases, but unfortunately this is correlated by a decrease in applicant pool quality.

    I like your Super Bowl analogy but it could go both ways. For example, if there are 28 teams in the NFL and the playoffs accepted 16 teams every year without change, wouldn't it be SLIGHTLY easier to get into the playoffs if 2 teams dropped out and then there were only 26 teams competing for the same 16 spots? This seems to be analogous to med school, since it looks like (right now anyways) the med schools have continued to accept about the same number of premeds every year.

    "There is nothing more powerful on this Earth as a man who has nothing to lose. It does not take ten such men to change the world--one will do." Elijah Mohammed
  10. Mango

    Mango Very Senior Member 10+ Year Member

    Apr 30, 2000
    I think you're exactly right. The applicant pool has been shrinking in size, while at the same time increasing in quality. I think that translates into this: If you have a 3.8 and a 35, than getting accepted will be the same, if not a bit easier than it was in the past. HOWEVER, if you are a borderline 3.4 with a 28, than things may be a bit tougher than they were in the past. NOw I say a bit because I don't honestly know if these changes have caused any perceivable difference yet.

    I still say, apply even if people tell you not to. Hey, it worked for me ! [​IMG] I'm off to class...

  11. I have to respectfully disagree with the conclusion you draw from the percentages. If, for argument's sake, much of the bottom 10-20% has stopped applying, then the % of accepted students will rise, but this is still the same <i>number</i> of students, and their real competition (the middle two quartiles) is still pretty much there. In fact, at the same time, the top quartile seems to be getting <i>more</i> competitive in terms of numbers and intangibles. Therefore, the percentages only seem to tell us that fewer less-qualified applicants are applying. You can't conclude the converse from this--that a greater number of qualified applicants are having an easier time getting accepted.

    I would sum it up by saying that strong applicants are relatively unaffected, borderline applicants are having a tougher time, and less-qualified applicants are not applying or are working to improve themselves more before applying to med school.

    As for the Super Bowl analogy, I didn't mean it to be a good parallel, I just wanted a little humor in there. But even in that situation, if you took the Bears out of consideration, the overall quality of the league would go up, and each game would be more important. No one could look forward to padding their "W" column with easy wins if the bad teams dropped out, and that would make for a lot of parity and competition in the league. The Big Ten in football is a good example of this.

  12. You're right, it does depend on how you interpret the numbers. Its hard to say conclusively one way or the other.

    I was using the word 'easier' in the sense that any random applicant these days has a slightly better chance at getting admitted somewhere now than in the past. I would venture to say that people getting accepted off the wait list has increased substantially the last few years. I would guess that the above average premed applicant these days tends to get more acceptances than in the past, and when they choose their school, a higher number of available slots is opened for people to come off the waitlist than in past years. No stats to support that, just a gut feeling on my part.

    But you're right thats its still difficult to get admitted and that borderline/below average applicants will still have a very hard time getting in. Even with the AAMC stats, on an individual basis the difference between 35% and 45% acceptance is negligible.

    On a side note: I agree with your assessment of the Big 10. Pac 10 is the best, followed by the Big 12, even though my sorry Baylor Bears certainly didnt do anything to enhance the toughness of the Big 12.

    "There is nothing more powerful on this Earth as a man who has nothing to lose. It does not take ten such men to change the world--one will do." Elijah Mohammed
  13. Jacky

    Jacky Member 10+ Year Member

    Oct 24, 2000
    Denver, Colorado, USA
    One thing you might want to consider (according to a recently publication) is that those responsible for assessing the medical needs of the country (American Association of Medicine?) have "admittedly", miscalculated the # of physician needed to accommodate the influx of baby-boomers entering into retirement and seeking medical attention. The publication also stated that not only will medical schools need to start increasing their class size, but give a push towards advocating students to strongly consider specialization rather than primary care (as foreign as that sounds!) to meet the older, growing population's needs. (i.e. Cardiology - cardiovascular disease is reportedly, going to sky-rocket in the next 10-20 years, thus requiring a sharp demand in physicians of this specialty.)

    [This message has been edited by Jacky (edited 01-27-2001).]
  14. cobalt

    cobalt Junior Member 10+ Year Member

    Jan 9, 2001
    New Jersey
    Jacky (or anyone else for that matter)-

    You wouldn't happen to know the reference of the article that you mentioned? I think it would be interesting to read...It makes sense, I just haven't actually read something on the aging boomer population and its effect on specialization.

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