drfermin,
I understand your point but I think we do have some evidence that it is (by the slightest of margins) easier to get in now than in was for example in 1996.
Look at the percentage of applicants who got accepted somewhere. That percentage has increased (albeit very slightly) over the last few years. Nowadays close to 45% get accepted somewhere... about 5 or 6 years ago that number was closer to 35% or so.
If you look at the AMCAS data, med schools have accepted about the same number of students every year. With a declining applicant pool, a larger percentage of those who apply will get accepted SOMEWHERE.
Looking at it from an individual standpoint, an applicant who applied in 1996 who is applying now probably would not sense a difference, but by and large from a national standpoint it is slightly easier to get into a med school somewhere than it was in 1996 when the applicant pool was at its peak.
Data from the last 5 years: (AMCAS)
Year Applicants Accepted % Accepted
1996 46967 16201 34.49%
1997 43018 16165 37.58%
1998 40998 16170 39.44%
1999 38449 16221 42.19%
2000 37092 16301 43.95%
You can question the value of statistics as I do sometimes, but if anything there is more evidence that it is slightly easier to get in than the converse (that it is harder to get in these days).
Assuming that the recent downward trend is not a fluke (which it might be due to possible temporary uncertainty of the healthcare profession) then in the future it will get even easier to get admitted from a statistical standpoint UNLESS MED SCHOOLS START ACCEPTING FEWER STUDENTS EVERY YEAR.
I actually hope the med school applicant pool increases, but unfortunately this is correlated by a decrease in applicant pool quality.
I like your Super Bowl analogy but it could go both ways. For example, if there are 28 teams in the NFL and the playoffs accepted 16 teams every year without change, wouldn't it be SLIGHTLY easier to get into the playoffs if 2 teams dropped out and then there were only 26 teams competing for the same 16 spots? This seems to be analogous to med school, since it looks like (right now anyways) the med schools have continued to accept about the same number of premeds every year.
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"There is nothing more powerful on this Earth as a man who has nothing to lose. It does not take ten such men to change the world--one will do." Elijah Mohammed