Annual Pharm D. Production

[paddyboy777]

I tried posting this last night but it disappeared.

Came across some annual graduation numbers from Pharm D. programs:

Year Graduates
2003 7400
2004 8100 (including some 300 residual B. Pharms)
2005 8264
2006 9360
2007 10000 +
2008 10000 +

I am concerned that a glut is coming. "Shortage" in 2000 was 7000 RPhs. By 2003 it was down to 4700. Looks like they will work off the shortage in a couple more years after which the job market should get interesting.

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[b*rizzle]

I tried posting this last night but it disappeared.

Came across some annual graduation numbers from Pharm D. programs:

Year Graduates
2003 7400
2004 8100 (including some 300 residual B. Pharms)
2005 8264
2006 9360
2007 10000 +
2008 10000 +

I am concerned that a glut is coming. "Shortage" in 2000 was 7000 RPhs. By 2003 it was down to 4700. Looks like they will work off the shortage in a couple more years after which the job market should get interesting.

There will be a job for you when you graduate. Please don't stress about this, or get everyone else all hot and bothered about it. It will slow down when fewer jobs become available in pharmacy.

 

[SomeGuy]

There will be a job for you when you graduate. Please don't stress about this, or get everyone else all hot and bothered about it. It will slow down when fewer jobs become available in pharmacy.

What are you basing "There will be a job for you when you graduate" on? Though I agree with what you said in the latter, if fewer jobs become available, things could get quite ugly.

 

[Trancelucent1]

Wag's gave us a figure at one of their sponsored something or others that said they could hire every pharmd graduate every year until 2015 and still not have enough for the stores that they want to open. I wouldn't stress about it. Not to mention that there are other pathways that many people don't choose (residencies for specialties and such). Also, you have to account for the amt of pharmacists that are retiring/changing fields and what not.

 

[ButlerPharm.D.]

Sorry, but I'd have to agree with Trancelucent1. There is no possible way that the demand for Pharmacists will ever drop off to a point where you will never be able to find a job. With the coming of age of the "baby boomers" the demand for qualified health care professionals will only grow. Hate to burst your bubble!

 

[SomeGuy]

I guess I'm just worried after a lot of the same things were said about the whole computers thing. The bubble bursted and outsourcing boomed, while the companies that lobbied for bigger classes/more visas got cheap local engineers/programmers.

Hopefully Wag's and the other corps lobby the right people in the right places to keep mail order from taking over. Its about time political lobbying works to my advantage!

 

[Tavit]

The only concern I have about Pharmd production is whether or not I will be counted among the ones who have obtained a position within the Healthcare Industry.

I am confident that will happen.

 

[b*rizzle]

I guess I'm just worried after a lot of the same things were said about the whole computers thing. The bubble bursted and outsourcing boomed, while the companies that lobbied for bigger classes/more visas got cheap local engineers/programmers.

Hopefully Wag's and the other corps lobby the right people in the right places to keep mail order from taking over. Its about time political lobbying works to my advantage!

Every now and then these "the world is ending" threads surface. I'm quite aware of the volatility of certain areas of pharmacy, but there's certainly no need for panic. Pharmacy is not computer engineering/programming. My father has been an electrical engineer for 27 years with IBM, and every time one of these outsourcing scares surfaces, he worries that he'll lose his job just a few years before he's eligible to retire. I'm aware of the effect of outsourcing.

Given the nature of the industry in this country, I don't see the same thing happening. Besides, you don't have to go into retail or mail-order anyway.

What are you basing "There will be a job for you when you graduate" on? Though I agree with what you said in the latter, if fewer jobs become available, things could get quite ugly.

I'm basing it on the fact that I live in a state where demand for pharmacists is one of the highest in the country.

http://www.pharmacymanpower.com/


Besides, if you care enough about doing pharmacy, then you'll find a way to make it happen, despite the current economic situation.

 

[paddyboy777]

Wag's gave us a figure at one of their sponsored something or others that said they could hire every pharmd graduate every year until 2015 and still not have enough for the stores that they want to open. I wouldn't stress about it. Not to mention that there are other pathways that many people don't choose (residencies for specialties and such). Also, you have to account for the amt of pharmacists that are retiring/changing fields and what not.

WAGs statement (if this is what they stated) is pure BS. They plan to add maybe 500 stores a year - even if these are all 24 hour stores - you need maybe 1500 Pharmacists/year - I assume that productivity improvements will help them to have just one Pharm D. and rest techs. per shift. Also, as WAGs and others grow, inefficient stores like KMart will die out - KMart employs 3000 RPhs.

Also, if you look historically, assuming a work life of 45 years per pharmacist and going back to their approximate graduation dates, there were only 5000 RPhs graduating every year - hence retirement rate until 2016 will be about 5000 per year. After that there will be a spurt to 7000 per year which will last six years or so. However, producitivity is the huge unknown and at 100K per pharmacist, believe me, there will be big productivity improvements.

 

[Trancelucent1]

You're not taking into account that not all pharmacists work retail. Also, most of the students graduating will be women. You're also not taking into account that many of these women will have children and possibly just work part-time. Also that's just Wag's that you were looking at with 1500 anticipated pharmacists/year. What about the other chains? I know Wal-mart will be rolling out their Neighborhood market stores, this will require many more pharmacists. Not to mention CVS and Target. The jobs will be there. Everyone's been saying this about physicians for years, yet they're churning out more and more Dr's and they're still aren't enough. Not to be rude, but if you're so concerned maybe you should change your career path.

 

[SomeGuy]

WAGs statement (if this is what they stated) is pure BS. They plan to add maybe 500 stores a year - even if these are all 24 hour stores - you need maybe 1500 Pharmacists/year - I assume that productivity improvements will help them to have just one Pharm D. and rest techs. per shift. Also, as WAGs and others grow, inefficient stores like KMart will die out - KMart employs 3000 RPhs.

Also, if you look historically, assuming a work life of 45 years per pharmacist and going back to their approximate graduation dates, there were only 5000 RPhs graduating every year - hence retirement rate until 2016 will be about 5000 per year. After that there will be a spurt to 7000 per year which will last six years or so. However, producitivity is the huge unknown and at 100K per pharmacist, believe me, there will be big productivity improvements.

Well, another thing you have to look at is if "productivity" or the number of pharmacists increases, even more stores will be able to open up with the surplus of pharmacists. If a store is very busy, competitors will start up shop around it. If the cost of operation drops, the number of stores that can operate profitably increases.

I don't think there is a lack of competition in the pharmacy market, not yet anyway. Maybe in price, but definitely not in locations.

I don't think a store really needs to fill that many prescriptions per day to break even, anything more is profit. And let's not forget that a lot of the OTC stuff (especially of the house-brand variety) is sold at a nice margin. For a store like K-Mart, even taking a slight loss in the pharmacy may be worth it if it brings people in the store.

My biggest fear is everything changing into mail order. In the USA at least, you don't need to worry about foreign pharmacists as much as before, since a 5-year degree is now required to write the necessary licensure exams.