Wanted to give some perspective as someone at a T5. My housemate is very similar to me in that they're generally average/below average in effort that they've put in during medical school. He also matched at top 10 in ophtho this year, step 2 was <60th percentile and our rotations are true P/F with only 4th year SubIs being graded. Not sure exactly how many research items, but looking on pubmed it looks like he has 2 first author pubs in decent journals and a just a few other random papers in ophtho where he was not first author.
If your stats, which are stellar by the way, are the norm for people matching into T10 ophtho programs then the difference school prestige makes is even bigger than I thought.
It has to come down to culture of the specialty and the institution. Everyone is taking their narrow experiences at their own school or specialty and extrapolating, but trying to put aside my personal biases, it seems like it varies from massive advantage to very little.
Ophtho shines some interesting light on this debate. Theoretically, MEEI, Will's Eye, and Bascom Palmer can all match the best applicants in the country. MEEI has exactly two non-T20 residents. Will's Eye and Bascom Palmer have an even mix of T20 and T100 MD students. You see a similar trend even at the less "elite" residencies that are traditionally ranked similarly. UCSF and Columbia have mostly T20 residents, but OHSU and USC are a mix.
In ortho, a specialty with tons of emphasis on aways/sub-Is and no shortage of absolutely
stellar candidates, we see completely different patterns where med school name matters much less.
Also, I think we're internalizing our own position and safe-guarding our egos. Those at T20s are discarding the obvious advantages and claiming it's all just grit and talent, so if they match where they want, it's clearly because they deserve it. Their perspective is also maybe skewed if they are applying ortho or another specialty that seems to value med school prestige less. Those at non-T20s are catastrophizing and upset that they need to be absolutely perfect to break into the ranks of the T20 residencies. So if they fail to match in the top, it's because of school name bias. The reality is that some people are right, and others are wrong, but it comes down to your specific situation. If you're a Tufts, BU, or UMass student hoping to stay in Boston but match a top tier institution in ophtho... well you may have an actual bone to pick. If you're an IM applicant from Harvard, a Big 4 residency spot is yours to lose, but if you're applying into ortho you're going to have to stand on your own merits. People saying you'll match automatically or with far inferior stats probably gets old.
Overall, I think it's a major net positive. People wouldn't be bending over backwards to get into these schools if they didn't confer an advantage. Obviously prestige has its limits, and certain specialties and programs place different levels of emphasis on school name. I have no doubt that T20 applicants matching T20 programs are fantastically talented people. I'd bet
plenty matching lower down have similar talent, and many likely have
more talent, but it's all so variable by program and circumstance that trying to summarize it all with one blanket statement is pointless.