With some number combinations such as 3.6/31 or 3.9/41 it is pretty clear, but when you have a 3.7/34 it starts to be more difficult to pin down where your application is going to play best. People end up peppering the entire mid- and top-tiers with applications because they don't want to miss out on getting into their dream program and they don't want to risk not getting in anywhere. Choosing which schools to apply to becomes even more complicated when considering other application factors such as having a remarkable personal narrative or outstanding research credentials - and becomes a complete crapshoot when thinking about schools which conduct holistic review.
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I completely agree that applying to 15+ schools should be unnecessary but I think that the current state of medical school admissions is such that it is not unreasonable.
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While the venerable
LizzyM herself has said that the process ISN'T random (and you allude to the same, somewhat, in your closing), the point was made, and can be made here, again, that the process is not random only from the perspective of the ADCOM.
As an applicant, the "spray and pray" application strategy continues to increase in popularity for a reason - one really just has NO idea where their application will gain traction.
Further, depending on the school's primary/secondary application review process, there is substantial variability in how individuals are selected for interview.
Primary reader having a bad day? NOTHANKS.
Primary reader just got his grant approved (equivalent to winning PI MegaMillions)? II.
Primary reader just had grant proposal rejected? NOTHANKS.
Primary reader studied abroad in the same country you did, triggers wistful memories of his youth, overlooks your multiple C's in pre-reqs? II.
Of course, others will immediately respond that the primary readers are (trained to be) conscious of these biases and will work to divorce themselves from them, and that many schools have lateral (and sometimes vertical) review to reduce the possibility of these outcomes. Both are true. As is the fact that we are all human, and the process is (in most cases) inherently subjective.
This issue extends beyond those with the "borderline" numbers as quantified above.
Let's take me. I myself am not ashamed to recap my application:
<3.3 sci and cum (with 3.9 in all pre-reqs done in University-affiliated post-bacc)
33 MCAT (straight 11's - disappointed after averaging 36+ in FL's but wasn't going to chance a retake)
Non-trad with substantial/compelling professional experience and a narrative that showed how I would leverage it during my medical career.
Ok - so if one started selecting schools based on my "numbers", I'd be looking at...
-safety schools: 0 (barring something like 4 years in Puerto Rico, and as a [non-urm] spanish speaker, I did consider this but ultimately did not apply)
-match schools: hope to god I live in a favorable state for IS admissions (womp womp, I live in CA), sooooo.... none, with my tragic GPA + slightly-above-average MCAT
-reach schools: essentially every allopathic institution in the CONUS
-"whynotit'sjustmoney" stratospheric reach schools: say the entire top 30 (and trust me, I don't believe that there IS any top 30, I'm just saying that there's a echelon of school that has its absolute PICK of who to take... these are the schools I'm referencing).
So I applied to 30 schools. I got something like 10 interviews before I started declining them. I withdrew from 10 schools after my first "dream" acceptance.
You know what? The interviews were from every part of the country (except - you guessed it - CA) and absolutely all over the range of perceived prestige and selectivity, from "gets the job done", to "top 10". I have tried to reconcile the where's and who's and why's of my application cycle but THERE IS NO LOGIC THAT I CAN SEE. (And for the ADCOM's reading this - I'm forever grateful for each and every one of you that took a chance on me!)
So, for those with a marginal application (and by that I mean everyone with even a single blemish on their application),
I give the same advice that I give to everyone who I talk to in my post-bacc: apply everywhere. I'm not kidding. Everywhere. Apply up, apply down, NSEW, etc., because as an applicant you JUST DON'T KNOW.
Edited to add:
I post my story just to show people a) the inherent unpredictability of the process, and b) that literally anyone who has shown themselves capable of doing the work (irrespective of past mistakes) can be a competitive candidate. Don't buy the SDN "perfection or failure" dichotomy. Believe in yourself!
