your logic would work except for all of the assumptions and misinformation in it. I have highlighted a couple of them.
just because YOU question the benefit doesn't mean the benefit is questionable. These things ARE researched. The problem with the people who support the anti-vaccine movement is they throw speculation on top of speculation until they have concocted this horror story and then grab ahold of an anecdote like the one a bit ago with meningitis and scream "A-HAAA!!" .... or.... something else..... but either way there is a grand gesture involved....
The underlying assumptions of your argument are:
- benefit cannot exist in the presence of any downside or increased risk
- potential downsides/risks include any chance Lim(1/x) as (x->infinity)
- lack of evidence is evidence for
these are SEVERELY problematic assumptions (and as you guys get to know me around here you will notice.... I consider irrationality to be the omitted 8th deadly sin).
it all stems from something ive complained about in other threads.... many people have NO working concept of absolute and relative terminology. anyone currently taking EBM should be aware of what I mean.
a vaccine increases your chance of a crippling side effect by 1000% (relative)
e-gads! (there really ought to be a face for that one....)
but lets say the initial risk was 1 out of 10 million (.00001%) Now our risk is 1 in 10 thousand (.01%). (absolute)
This is still basically no chance. And even with extreme numbers it isnt worth getting too excited about. so just because we can anecdotally claim an increase in shingles cases.... doesn't really mean we should forgo preventative treatment for the population at highest risk. if in another situaiton the numbers werent so nice we would turn to NNT and NNH analysis and make a judgement call. but at least for now it is blatantly inappropriate to turn to 1 or 2 anecdotal cases halt progress in its tracts.... at the very least if you want to cite anecdote you need to stack stories from the other sides as well. "I got the hep A vaccine and didnt get hep A". every bit as useless in this discussion....