Anyone pulling out...

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I did about a month ago. 401k went into a prudential fund with a guaranteed 3% return through the end of the year. The account has gone up significantly in the past 2-3 years. I’d rather miss out of whatever the potential gains might be through December versus losing 30%. I know, timing the market is not recommended.
 
I should add that I am still maxing out the 403b and 457 every month with some extra going into an after tax Roth 403b. All of that is going into a 2050 black rock fund. I also don’t to miss a good sale. But all of the existing money went into the prudential fixed return fund.

YadaYadaNext said:
I did about a month ago. 401k went into a prudential fund with a guaranteed 3% return through the end of the year. The account has gone up significantly in the past 2-3 years. I’d rather miss out of whatever the potential gains might be through December versus losing 30%. I know, timing the market is not recommended.
Click to expand...
 
Sticking to my allocation. Did make some changes in the Spring on the Bond side. Dumped all munis in favor of Treasurys/CASH. Dumped most bond funds that hold a decent amount of corporates. Earning virtually ZERO on a major chunk of my portfolio. Sleeping well though.
 
I’m staying the course as well, as I’ve got decades of work left. Have a few partners who are also 15-20 years from retirement who’ve been talking about pulling back on stocks, though.
 
BLADEMDA said:
My prediction is a post Biden win will lead to an end of the year rally. The release of the vaccine at the end of the November and the Biden win will lead to a 10 percent rally in stocks by Feb 2021.
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Can we get the vaccine and the 10% rally and not Biden?
 
Pulled out 5 days ago.
Trump win was priced in the market. A loss will result in a 10-20% pull back.

a senate republican loss will result in another 20% pullback.
 
If the market even pulls back 10 percent it is a buying opportunity. The Dems are going to spend like drunken sailors x 2 on programs and stimulus. The vaccine will mark the beginning of the end of Covid 19 (it will take 6 months )
The Fed is keeping interest rates at historic lows.

I see the market easily up 15 percent from here in just 6 months.
 
Here is the question to ask. What did people think the market would do with a Trump victory? ( I suggest not answer what you want or what you think...but go look. I'll tell you right now it was predicted to fall hard...but don't take my word for it...go read about 30 articles from the pundits about it before the election.). What did the market actually do (after the initial dip)?

What writers say in articles and magazines have no bearing on what actually will happen.

I think it is safe to say that the reverse will happen if the outcome is reversed - so a Trump failure = market pull back.

Think about this for a sec. Who moves the markets? Is it people like you and me and the RobinHood traders? Maybe a little over the short term.

But what REALLY moves the market is huge fund managers. The question then is, what do those guys believe? Are they hopefully for a Biden presidency? Are those extremely conservative, right wing folks excited for a huge tax increase?

I get that the FEDS are going to try and pump money into the system. But that isn't what drove the market up with a Trump win. What drove the market up with a Trump win was all those fund managers thinking that Trump was going to be great for the system...and money poured into the markets.
 
I pulled 15% out a couple days ago anticipating significant volatility in the markets, with an eye to reinvest next week.
 
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I've been timing the market this year for the first time in my life. So far it's working out in my favor.

I sold a lot as the pandemic hit - I was more pessimistic about it's world wide impact than most.
I then admittedly missed the bottom by a little, as I thought there was little reason for optimism.
But I got FOMO so I reinvested in covid resistant industries not far from the bottom.

I sold again last week, and went mainly into cash as I think the uncertainty of the election, and frankly the fact that the pandemic is going nuts again will cause another down turn.

I'll wait till I see signs of things picking up again and then I'll buy in
 
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The volatility around the election is a buying opportunity. Once a Biden win is obvious next week (Wednesday at the latest) the blue wave will be priced into stocks. The key is the release of the vaccine at the end of November or mid-december, Moderna, Pfizer and J and J are all very close to releasing an effective Covid 19 vaccine in the next 45-60 days. That vaccine will mark a huge turning point in the market. Sentiment will shift from negative to positive.
By Sping time we will be up 15% from these levels.

As for tax increases the market has priced those in already. With interest rates near zero equities represent the best opportunity to make money.


www.cnbc.com

Moderna says it's preparing global launch of Covid vaccine as it takes in $1.1 billion in deposits

Moderna is prepping for the global launch of its potential coronavirus vaccine, already taking in $1.1 billion in deposits from governments.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
Johnson and Johnson has the BEST Covid 19 vaccine in terms of practical application for the world. It is a single shot vaccine which can be stored in a refrigerator vs an ultra low temperature freezer. Moderna's vaccine will work for most U.S, hospitals but is not as practical as J and J. Pfizer's vaccine requires -70 degrees storage which most facilities don't have on hand.

 
Not a single one of you knows what the market will do in the future, trying to time anything is idiotic. Blade has repeatedly been wrong about so called predictions in the past, so I don't know why anyone here is listening to him or jwk the Trump lackey.
 
I’m not that old, but the longer I invest, the more humble I become.

The efficient market theory tells us that ALL knowledge cumulatively (either insider or publicly known information) is already priced into the market. It takes an awful lot of hubris to think that you as an individual know more than the market collectively.
 
JobsFan said:
I've been timing the market this year for the first time in my life. So far it's working out in my favor.

I sold a lot as the pandemic hit - I was more pessimistic about it's world wide impact than most.
I then admittedly missed the bottom by a little, as I thought there was little reason for optimism.
But I got FOMO so I reinvested in covid resistant industries not far from the bottom.

I sold again last week, and went mainly into cash as I think the uncertainty of the election, and frankly the fact that the pandemic is going nuts again will cause another down turn.

I'll wait till I see signs of things picking up again and then I'll buy in
Click to expand...
I think you'll lose in the long run, based on history
 
epidural man said:
Pulled out 5 days ago.
Trump win was priced in the market. A loss will result in a 10-20% pull back.

a senate republican loss will result in another 20% pullback.
Click to expand...

How the hell is a Trump win priced into the market? The market knows what we know, that trump is heavily favored (but not guarenteed) to lose.
 
btbam said:
Not a single one of you knows what the market will do in the future, trying to time anything is idiotic. Blade has repeatedly been wrong about so called predictions in the past, so I don't know why anyone here is listening to him or jwk the Trump lackey.
Click to expand...

My last prediction in April I was wrong. I only predicted a 30% upswing in the market and the rally was much greater. This time is no different. My 15% market upswing is likely off again because interests rates are so low and the vaccine will be that effective. Short term volatility in the market is a buying opportunity as long as the underlying fundamentals are sound.
 
1604165327417.png
 
1604165586583.png


This chart shows the crash and then the rebound. I would say S and P 500 of 3,000 looks very attractive for buying more equities. I am adding now at these numbers and will continue to do so until the market rallies post election.
 
okayplayer said:
I’m not that old, but the longer I invest, the more humble I become.

The efficient market theory tells us that ALL knowledge cumulatively (either insider or publicly known information) is already priced into the market. It takes an awful lot of hubris to think that you as an individual know more than the market collectively.
Click to expand...
Except the efficient market theory is wrong. The market is NOT efficient.
 
BLADEMDA said:
My last prediction in April I was wrong. I only predicted a 30% upswing in the market and the rally was much greater. This time is no different. My 15% market upswing is likely off again because interests rates are so low and the vaccine will be that effective. Short term volatility in the market is a buying opportunity as long as the underlying fundamentals are sound.
Click to expand...

Right so you were incorrect then, just as you will be again. But feel free to post as many charts and graphs as you want.
 
btbam said:
Right so you were incorrect then, just as you will be again. But feel free to post as many charts and graphs as you want.
Click to expand...


This is going to be so easy. In 4-5 weeks I will be back posting on this thread once the stock market has recovered very nicely.
 
Drwine said:
If you pull out, when do you get back in??????? Timing the market is just about impossible to do long term.
www.forbes.com

6 Reasons Why Market Timing Is For Suckers

Don't be tempted into thinking you can time the market. I explain six reasons why you should avoid the temptation.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
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Get back in whenever.

If you are an astute investor, and you hear that China ports are closed, you should have pulled out (it was shortly after the announcement that the ports would be closed that the market took a huge dive).

You buy back in at any point.

Let's say the market drops 35%, and you pulled out, let it drop 10% and you buy back in and loose 20%. You still are better off and you succesfully timed the market.

To say you can't time the market is ridiculous. Mostly, because NO ONE defines terms.

If you mean that timing the market means you sell at all the TOPS and buy and all the bottoms, then YEAH, no one can do that.

But if you mean that you use some judgement (and look at history and realize market movers LOVE Trump, and you realize it looks like he might loose, and you think, sheesh, when he won, the market went on a terror - I bet there will be pull back as he is showing signs of loosing), and so you go to cash and the market drops, and you buy back in and it keeps dropping, yet you dodged 15% of that drop - you have succesfully timed the market.

If you buy Amazon stock at $175, and you watch it go to $3000, and you sell...you have succesfully timed the market.
 
These factors make it a perfectly plausible spot for a rebound attempt and suggest the risk-reward tradeoff for long-term investors has improved as stocks have come down — which is almost a law of nature. Even if the short-term action in the market is at least as hard to handicap as are elections and pandemics.

1604275466567.png
 
I'd love to get another shot at buying equities at 3,000 before the next market run-up. The Covid 19 vaccine from one of the top 3 is around the corner (Christmas at the latest) which will shift market sentiment. The Bull will be back regardless who wins the election.
 
epidural man said:
Get back in whenever.

If you are an astute investor, and you hear that China ports are closed, you should have pulled out (it was shortly after the announcement that the ports would be closed that the market took a huge dive).

You buy back in at any point.

Let's say the market drops 35%, and you pulled out, let it drop 10% and you buy back in and loose 20%. You still are better off and you succesfully timed the market.

To say you can't time the market is ridiculous. Mostly, because NO ONE defines terms.

If you mean that timing the market means you sell at all the TOPS and buy and all the bottoms, then YEAH, no one can do that.

But if you mean that you use some judgement (and look at history and realize market movers LOVE Trump, and you realize it looks like he might loose, and you think, sheesh, when he won, the market went on a terror - I bet there will be pull back as he is showing signs of loosing), and so you go to cash and the market drops, and you buy back in and it keeps dropping, yet you dodged 15% of that drop - you have succesfully timed the market.

If you buy Amazon stock at $175, and you watch it go to $3000, and you sell...you have succesfully timed the market.
Click to expand...

Of course you can time the market when you are lucky.

If you can time the market consistently (and not lose money on an equal number of “timings”) then you should be worth upwards of 100 million within a few short years. How’s that goin for you, or did you just start now?
 
doctalaughs said:
Of course you can time the market when you are lucky.

If you can time the market consistently (and not lose money on an equal number of “timings”) then you should be worth upwards of 100 million within a few short years. How’s that goin for you, or did you just start now?
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You are timing the market too. Everyone does.

I'm actually doing okay.

Again, you need to define what you mean by time the market. Tell me what you think it means.
 
okayplayer said:
Be sure to let us all know when we have hit the bottom and you buy back in..(please post that day, not retrospectively)
Click to expand...

this prospective enough?


forums.studentdoctor.net

The ultimate COVID thread

But DCFs are completely worthless especially when there are some many variables the farther you go into the future. the future cash flow of the company (discounted to present value) is literally what you are purchasing when you buy a stock. There is no difference (except voting rights)...
forums.studentdoctor.net forums.studentdoctor.net

... but I did get back in selectively about 6 weeks ago, as I was getting fomo


but anyway ,

You misunderstand my goals, I don’t care if I miss the bottom... in fact I will almost certainly miss the bottom, because I will wait for signs of recovery

i only have 10 years left to work, as long as I don’t lose my capital - I’ll be fine
 
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Most people will be better off in the long run dumping all available cash (after monthly expenses) into the market every month whether the market is high or low.

My wife and I have an Investor Policy Statement (IPS) that details our desired asset allocation. Our investments are automatically set to this asset allocation and we rebalance once a year in January.

The system runs on autopilot and it works.
 
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