- Joined
- Sep 10, 2012
- Messages
- 805
- Reaction score
- 1,191
If you don’t want a baby market, it’s best to use hormonal or barrier protection. When things get frantic most either pull out way to early or too late.
I did about a month ago. 401k went into a prudential fund with a guaranteed 3% return through the end of the year. The account has gone up significantly in the past 2-3 years. I’d rather miss out of whatever the potential gains might be through December versus losing 30%. I know, timing the market is not recommended.
Can we get the vaccine and the 10% rally and not Biden?My prediction is a post Biden win will lead to an end of the year rally. The release of the vaccine at the end of the November and the Biden win will lead to a 10 percent rally in stocks by Feb 2021.
You'll probably get Biden and not the 2 othersCan we get the vaccine and the 10% rally and not Biden?
I think you'll lose in the long run, based on historyI've been timing the market this year for the first time in my life. So far it's working out in my favor.
I sold a lot as the pandemic hit - I was more pessimistic about it's world wide impact than most.
I then admittedly missed the bottom by a little, as I thought there was little reason for optimism.
But I got FOMO so I reinvested in covid resistant industries not far from the bottom.
I sold again last week, and went mainly into cash as I think the uncertainty of the election, and frankly the fact that the pandemic is going nuts again will cause another down turn.
I'll wait till I see signs of things picking up again and then I'll buy in
Pulled out 5 days ago.
Trump win was priced in the market. A loss will result in a 10-20% pull back.
a senate republican loss will result in another 20% pullback.
Not a single one of you knows what the market will do in the future, trying to time anything is idiotic. Blade has repeatedly been wrong about so called predictions in the past, so I don't know why anyone here is listening to him or jwk the Trump lackey.
Save yourself the trouble and get a vasectomy.These days I always pull out
Save yourself the trouble and get a vasectomy.
Except the efficient market theory is wrong. The market is NOT efficient.I’m not that old, but the longer I invest, the more humble I become.
The efficient market theory tells us that ALL knowledge cumulatively (either insider or publicly known information) is already priced into the market. It takes an awful lot of hubris to think that you as an individual know more than the market collectively.
It’s certainly less messy.
My last prediction in April I was wrong. I only predicted a 30% upswing in the market and the rally was much greater. This time is no different. My 15% market upswing is likely off again because interests rates are so low and the vaccine will be that effective. Short term volatility in the market is a buying opportunity as long as the underlying fundamentals are sound.
want a bet? 🙂I think you'll lose in the long run, based on history
want a bet? 🙂
Right so you were incorrect then, just as you will be again. But feel free to post as many charts and graphs as you want.
Get back in whenever.If you pull out, when do you get back in??????? Timing the market is just about impossible to do long term.
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6 Reasons Why Market Timing Is For Suckers
Don't be tempted into thinking you can time the market. I explain six reasons why you should avoid the temptation.www.forbes.com
Get back in whenever.
If you are an astute investor, and you hear that China ports are closed, you should have pulled out (it was shortly after the announcement that the ports would be closed that the market took a huge dive).
You buy back in at any point.
Let's say the market drops 35%, and you pulled out, let it drop 10% and you buy back in and loose 20%. You still are better off and you succesfully timed the market.
To say you can't time the market is ridiculous. Mostly, because NO ONE defines terms.
If you mean that timing the market means you sell at all the TOPS and buy and all the bottoms, then YEAH, no one can do that.
But if you mean that you use some judgement (and look at history and realize market movers LOVE Trump, and you realize it looks like he might loose, and you think, sheesh, when he won, the market went on a terror - I bet there will be pull back as he is showing signs of loosing), and so you go to cash and the market drops, and you buy back in and it keeps dropping, yet you dodged 15% of that drop - you have succesfully timed the market.
If you buy Amazon stock at $175, and you watch it go to $3000, and you sell...you have succesfully timed the market.
Depends on your time horizon. If you pull out and the market rallies, then what happens? It becomes increasingly hard to correctly time the market in a consistent manner over two or three decades, but don't take my word for it.
Stay invested: Don’t risk missing the market’s best days.
You are timing the market too. Everyone does.Of course you can time the market when you are lucky.
If you can time the market consistently (and not lose money on an equal number of “timings”) then you should be worth upwards of 100 million within a few short years. How’s that goin for you, or did you just start now?
Be sure to let us all know when we have hit the bottom and you buy back in..(please post that day, not retrospectively)