Anyone pulling out...

[doctalaughs]

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Sure - if you change your definition lots of people time the market. I “time” the market by rebalancing stocks/bonds based on my investment timeframe when they become out of wack and dollar cost averaging (but neither based on events that I think will predicts up/down trends).

I know you aren’t saying you sell at the peaks and buy at the lows. However, if you think “timing” the market means predicting ups/downs and consistently increasing your returns over decades over a “passive” investor from 10%/yr to 25%/yr then I’ve got some news for you....

 

[BLADEMDA]

This market is a TOTAL BUY post election. You will look back at this post in just a few weeks and wonder why in the heck did I sell rather than buy stocks?
The USA will be in total stimulus mode in 2021 spending more money in 1 year than we spend in 3-4 years. I don't agree with this massive debt nor do I condone a Green new deal but the fact remains the economy is going to come roaring back in 2021 no matter who wins this election.

The U.S .dollar is a "sell" but gold, bitcoin and stocks are all buys.

Changing your portfolio based on this election may be a mistake as the Fed could matter more

Wall Street is awash with strategic advice on how to play either a new Joe Biden presidency or another four years of Donald Trump.

www.cnbc.com

 

[btbam]

A very conservative attending I work with pulled all of his money out of the market when Obama was elected. He was convinced the depression from 08 was going to continue through his presidency. He sat on the sidelines for years waiting for his prediction to come to fruition. Cognitive dissonance is a bitch sometimes.

 

[Shufflin]

Nobody can time the market. What I do is wait patiently for pullbacks on strong stocks and then jump in. Worked well for me thus far.

 

[okayplayer]

I've been timing the market this year for the first time in my life. So far it's working out in my favor.

I sold a lot as the pandemic hit - I was more pessimistic about it's world wide impact than most.
I then admittedly missed the bottom by a little, as I thought there was little reason for optimism.
But I got FOMO so I reinvested in covid resistant industries not far from the bottom.

I sold again last week, and went mainly into cash as I think the uncertainty of the election, and frankly the fact that the pandemic is going nuts again will cause another down turn.

I'll wait till I see signs of things picking up again and then I'll buy in

S and P 500 is up 5% since you posted this.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Divided government after this election means a huge market rally and low taxes.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Looks like I’m going to be correct once again about the stock market. Huge rally between now and end of the year. Those who sold are going to miss out.

I was adding to my positions while the OP was selling. I am bullish short term on stocks

don’t forget the release of the Covid 19 vaccine in the next 30 days will keep the market red hot.

 

[okayplayer]

S and P 500 is up 5% since you posted this.

8%

 

[dchz]

Nobody can time the market. What I do is wait patiently for pullbacks on strong stocks and then jump in. Worked well for me thus far.

Nobody can time the market. What I do is time the market.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Stocks are on a tear. The idiots who thought the market was going down are wrong. We are going to rip higher by Christmas. Money is dirt cheap. Interests rates near zero. Chinese trade war is over. Covid vaccine coming out end of this month. No new taxes from Biden and Pelosi. We are going to all time highs and then higher before the party ends

 

[Mman]

Looks like I’m going to be correct once again about the stock market. Huge rally between now and end of the year. Those who sold are going to miss out.

I was adding to my positions while the OP was selling. I am bullish short term on stocks

don’t forget the release of the Covid 19 vaccine in the next 30 days will keep the market red hot.

When was the previous occasion?

I mean I kid but your technical analysis here for the last 15 years has been a money loser compared to simple market returns. Posting random graphs with hand drawn lines indicating support and resistance has yielded zero useful information.

 

[Shufflin]

Nobody can time the market. What I do is time the market.

Well someone got the humor.

 

[epidural man]

Sure - if you change your definition lots of people time the market. I “time” the market by rebalancing stocks/bonds based on my investment timeframe when they become out of wack and dollar cost averaging (but neither based on events that I think will predicts up/down trends).

I know you aren’t saying you sell at the peaks and buy at the lows. However, if you think “timing” the market means predicting ups/downs and consistently increasing your returns over decades over a “passive” investor from 10%/yr to 25%/yr then I’ve got some news for you....

I think "passive" investing typically means buying ETFs over individual stocks. Am I wrong on that?

 

[deleted126335]

Well someone got the humor.

 

[dchz]

As someone that has timed the market for the past 3 years (been in all cash except briefly in march). I have learned the lesson that I cannot time the market (I knew this lesson going in, but wanted to have some fun).

The problem is I cannot just STOP timing the market, because if I buy in at a certain time, that's STILL timing the market. So i'm still waiting for that dip before I buy in.... since April... Once I buy in over a few months i will dollar cost average. No one ever talks about how to untime the market correctly...

For those that don't know, I have 99.9% of my investment horizon still to come, so it didn't really cost me that much.

 

[Southpaw]

it's exhausting trying to time the market. not worth it. have to pay attention to prices all the time. when to buy. when to sell. which way your wild hair grows that day. exhausting. it greatly cuts into my SDN time. I just buy the market and hold.

 

[abolt18]

As someone that has timed the market for the past 3 years (been in all cash except briefly in march). I have learned the lesson that I cannot time the market (I knew this lesson going in, but wanted to have some fun).

The problem is I cannot just STOP timing the market, because if I buy in at a certain time, that's STILL timing the market. So i'm still waiting for that dip before I buy in.... since April... Once I buy in over a few months i will dollar cost average. No one ever talks about how to untime the market correctly...

For those that don't know, I have 99.9% of my investment horizon still to come, so it didn't really cost me that much.

The correct way is start dollar-cost-averaging NOW. Or lump-sum it all in now. 30 years from now, it'll hardly make a difference if you did it now or when the market drops 30% if you're talking about small amounts of money. I think your greatest benefit would be gained by just overcoming the hurdle and getting in then STAY in. Make a plan and run with it.

Dollar Cost Averaging Is For Wimps

Learn what dollar-cost averaging IS and ISN'T and why there are better ways to reduce risk. Manage emotions, avoid regret, and skip the hassle of DCA.

www.whitecoatinvestor.com

 

[GassYous]

As someone that has timed the market for the past 3 years (been in all cash except briefly in march). I have learned the lesson that I cannot time the market (I knew this lesson going in, but wanted to have some fun).

The problem is I cannot just STOP timing the market, because if I buy in at a certain time, that's STILL timing the market. So i'm still waiting for that dip before I buy in.... since April... Once I buy in over a few months i will dollar cost average. No one ever talks about how to untime the market correctly...

For those that don't know, I have 99.9% of my investment horizon still to come, so it didn't really cost me that much.

What dip are you waiting for since April? That was the dip

 

[deleted162650]

As someone that has timed the market for the past 3 years (been in all cash except briefly in march). I have learned the lesson that I cannot time the market (I knew this lesson going in, but wanted to have some fun).

The problem is I cannot just STOP timing the market, because if I buy in at a certain time, that's STILL timing the market. So i'm still waiting for that dip before I buy in.... since April... Once I buy in over a few months i will dollar cost average. No one ever talks about how to untime the market correctly...

For those that don't know, I have 99.9% of my investment horizon still to come, so it didn't really cost me that much.

😆

Weren’t you giving me a hard time about giving you a hard time about not timing the market back in the Spring??

Dude, just pick a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund, and have money auto-deposited every month. Do it today. Then don’t even look at the statements. Your welcome.

 

[deleted59964]

it's exhausting trying to time the market. not worth it. have to pay attention to prices all the time. when to buy. when to sell. which way your wild hair grows that day. exhausting. it greatly cuts into my SDN time. I just buy the market and hold.

it's not that simple, and timing the market means different things to different people.
sure if you try to sell repeatedly at the top of every little uptick, and buy at the bottom of every trough, you'll fail and waste a lot of energy in the process.

if you look at major world events as they unfold, and think about. the impact those events will have on the market and respond accordingly ... i'm not so sure that's impossible. whether its worth the effort -- probably depends on the size of the event, the size of your portfolio, and your investing goals.

i mean come on - the pandemic was clearly a once in a lifetime event that was going to impact the market.
a lot of people under reacted to it in the USA despite the writing being well and truly on the wall for all to see.

 

[GassYous]

it's not that simple, and timing the market means different things to different people.
sure if you try to sell repeatedly at the top of every little uptick, and buy at the bottom of every trough, you'll fail and waste a lot of energy in the process.

if you look at major world events as they unfold, and think about. the impact those events will have on the market and respond accordingly ... i'm not so sure that's impossible. whether its worth the effort -- probably depends on the size of the event, the size of your portfolio, and your investing goals.

i mean come on - the pandemic was clearly a once in a lifetime event that was going to impact the market.
a lot of people under reacted to it in the USA despite the writing being well and truly on the wall for all to see.

It's easy to say that with the advantage of hindsight

 

[dchz]

The correct way is start dollar-cost-averaging NOW. Or lump-sum it all in now. 30 years from now, it'll hardly make a difference if you did it now or when the market drops 30% if you're talking about small amounts of money. I think your greatest benefit would be gained by just overcoming the hurdle and getting in then STAY in. Make a plan and run with it.

Dollar Cost Averaging Is For Wimps

Learn what dollar-cost averaging IS and ISN'T and why there are better ways to reduce risk. Manage emotions, avoid regret, and skip the hassle of DCA.

www.whitecoatinvestor.com

If it doesn't matter why don't I buy in after the market drops 30%?? The time is coming.

😆

Weren’t you giving me a hard time about giving you a hard time about not timing the market back in the Spring??

Dude, just pick a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund, and have money auto-deposited every month. Do it today. Then don’t even look at the statements. Your welcome.

Yes I was. But I don't think you realize I was trolling you. By this spring I realized I cannot time the market. But in order to finish why I started. I have to time back in as well.

it's not that simple, and timing the market means different things to different people.
sure if you try to sell repeatedly at the top of every little uptick, and buy at the bottom of every trough, you'll fail and waste a lot of energy in the process.

if you look at major world events as they unfold, and think about. the impact those events will have on the market and respond accordingly ... i'm not so sure that's impossible. whether its worth the effort -- probably depends on the size of the event, the size of your portfolio, and your investing goals.

i mean come on - the pandemic was clearly a once in a lifetime event that was going to impact the market.
a lot of people under reacted to it in the USA despite the writing being well and truly on the wall for all to see.

I don't think the reaction is over. I feel like the shoe is dropping.

 

[dchz]

It's easy to say that with the advantage of hindsight

I was trying to say it with foresight in 2017. I have failed.

However, I still think a drop is coming. I will buy into the market when it does.

 

[deleted59964]

It's easy to say that with the advantage of hindsight

Perhaps you should check my posts from mid February

The ultimate COVID thread

So to the investment gurus out there, do you see this as a significant event, are you just going to ride this out or are you altering your investments expecting a downturn?

forums.studentdoctor.net

it’s a long thread, but the first 4 or 5 posts should help

 

[deleted59964]

So back to the future
how will the market react to trump not conceding?
was that foreseeable?

 

[GassYous]

Perhaps you should check my posts from mid February

The ultimate COVID thread

So to the investment gurus out there, do you see this as a significant event, are you just going to ride this out or are you altering your investments expecting a downturn?

forums.studentdoctor.net

it’s a long thread, but the first 4 or 5 posts should help

? You predicted that a pandemic would have significant impact? Great job I guess

 

[pgg]

.
i mean come on - the pandemic was clearly a once in a lifetime event that was going to impact the market.
a lot of people under reacted to it in the USA despite the writing being well and truly on the wall for all to see.

While we're in non-hindsight prediction of the obvious mode 🙂, how many $trillions of stimulus will or won't be dropped into the market in the next year?

 

[abolt18]

If it doesn't matter why don't I buy in after the market drops 30%?? The time is coming.



Yes I was. But I don't think you realize I was trolling you. By this spring I realized I cannot time the market. But in order to finish why I started. I have to time back in as well.



I don't think the reaction is over. I feel like the shoe is dropping.

Because getting back in matters so much more. Overcoming that hurdle sooner than later will allow you to invest THROUGHOUT the next drop.

So what if the market drops 30% in the next 2 weeks. Then you sit on your hands waiting for "the bottom" and telling yourself that it's not quite there. When it fluctuates and starts going up, you sit on your hands waiting for it to drop a little further. Eventually, the price has shot back up so much that you feel like you missed it (for reference, think back on this past spring) and need to wait for the NEXT drop, which may be any number of years away.

Pull the band-aid off!

 

[deleted162650]

Yes I was. But I don't think you realize I was trolling you. By this spring I realized I cannot time the market. But in order to finish why I started. I have to time back in as well.

I was trying to say it with foresight in 2017. I have failed.

However, I still think a drop is coming. I will buy into the market when it does.

Not sure if still trolling me. . .

 

[deleted59964]

While we're in non-hindsight prediction of the obvious mode 🙂, how many $trillions of stimulus will or won't be dropped into the market in the next year?

you guys are hilarious - no wonder 48% of you vote for trump. you ignore facts and make up your own.

shame most of you believed the spin that covid was no big deal. i tried to tell you.

peace out

 

[dchz]

Because getting back in matters so much more. Overcoming that hurdle sooner than later will allow you to invest THROUGHOUT the next drop.

So what if the market drops 30% in the next 2 weeks. Then you sit on your hands waiting for "the bottom" and telling yourself that it's not quite there. When it fluctuates and starts going up, you sit on your hands waiting for it to drop a little further. Eventually, the price has shot back up so much that you feel like you missed it (for reference, think back on this past spring) and need to wait for the NEXT drop, which may be any number of years away.

Pull the band-aid off!

If the market drops 30% in the next 2 weeks, i will buy in fully and finished timing the market.

It could also be a possibility that the market prices go down and i get more shares and buy in low?

I feel like you're only presenting one side of the possibilites...

 

[deleted162650]

If the market drops 30% in the next 2 weeks, i will buy in fully and finished timing the market.

It could also be a possibility that the market prices go down and i get more shares and buy in low?

I feel like you're only presenting one side of the possibilites...

Ya know, for a smart guy you’re pretty dumb.

 

[abolt18]

If the market drops 30% in the next 2 weeks, i will buy in fully and finished timing the market.

It could also be a possibility that the market prices go down and i get more shares and buy in low?

I feel like you're only presenting one side of the possibilites...

While you're waiting to dump that load into the market that you've held in cash for 3 years, are you at least still making scheduled monthly contributions to index funds in tax protected and/or taxable accounts? Or are you just growing your cash?

 

[JiPo]

If the market drops 30% in the next 2 weeks, i will buy in fully and finished timing the market.

It could also be a possibility that the market prices go down and i get more shares and buy in low?

I feel like you're only presenting one side of the possibilites...

Why do you assume that the market will crash 30% in the near future? There is always a possibility that market will drop, but based on you sitting out, I am assuming that you think the likelihood of market crash is high.

If you think it is 50/50 chance that it will drop, perhaps you should invest 50% of your portfolio in equity and hold 50% in cash. That way, if it crashes, you can buy more at discount, but if it rallies hard as it did in April onward, you didn't miss out completely. This is assuming you are only looking to invest in equities.

Nobody can time the market... Nobody.

 

[Mman]

If the market drops 30% in the next 2 weeks, i will buy in fully and finished timing the market.

It could also be a possibility that the market prices go down and i get more shares and buy in low?

I feel like you're only presenting one side of the possibilites...

It is more likely the market rises >30% prior to that upcoming 30% drop meaning you'd still be better off getting in today than waiting.

Is it possible the market is about to drop a ton and you'd be better off waiting til then? Sure. It's also possible the market doubles before it ever comes down in which case you have done irreparable harm to your long term returns by waiting. If your investment timeline is decades, there is no risk to putting all your money in right now. You cannot have a bad outcome by investing now. You might get a slightly better long term outcome by trying to time it right to put it in, but the risk on the downside is infinitely higher by trying that market timing.

 

[Mman]

For those that don't know, I have 99.9% of my investment horizon still to come, so it didn't really cost me that much.

the average anesthesiologist works for about 30-35 years so 3 years is a significant chunk of your investment lifetime in terms of new dollars invested into the market and since the earliest money has the biggest long term returns you need to have it invested. Sitting on cash with money that can compound for 30-40 years is crazy. The money you invest the last 10 or so years of your career will ultimately have very little returns comparatively.

 

[dchz]

Ya know, for a smart guy you’re pretty dumb.

Thanks for the compliment!

the average anesthesiologist works for about 30-35 years so 3 years is a significant chunk of your investment lifetime in terms of new dollars invested into the market and since the earliest money has the biggest long term returns you need to have it invested. Sitting on cash with money that can compound for 30-40 years is crazy. The money you invest the last 10 or so years of your career will ultimately have very little returns comparatively.

I started my career 4 months ago. The amount I had 3 years ago was just roth during residency and the amount is negligible compared to my contributions yearly in my new job. Even if you don't see the market the way I do, rest assured I am at least accounting correctly.

If you think it is 50/50 chance that it will drop, perhaps you should invest 50% of your portfolio in equity and hold 50% in cash. That way, if it crashes, you can buy more at discount, but if it rallies hard as it did in April onward, you didn't miss out completely. This is assuming you are only looking to invest in equities.

The problem is I think there is 90% chance the market will drop. Without the republican money injection policies, the market will drop. It's simple macro econ. We just have to wait for reality to catch up. Also what you're describing is a low variance play, you're hedging the bets. But I want the most +EV play since i'm early in my investment horizon, which results in the higher variance play.


A lot of y'all care about me and want to give me good advice. I really appreciate that. After all, just because we are doctors doesn't mean we know what we are doing at investing. If you find my post history, I knew I cannot time the market before 2017 - I simply wanted to do it for fun and as a good lesson early on as a low stakes experiment.

That's the issue here, the decision to time the market was made in 2017. I would say there are a variety of influences, including my best friend who is a hedge fund analyst and the fact the schiller index was so damn high. At the time of the decision, I believe being in treasury bills (note this is different than pure cash) is more +EV, but also at the same time more variance. I barely started my investments, I could afford to be aggressive. Unfortunately, that move I made in 2017 has not finished yet. The market is STILL TOO DAMN HIGH, it does not reflect reality. I knew this to be a possibility because it was high variance play and i'm going to ride it out through the catalyst events that could correct the market which is the election and regime change. If i buy in now, my actual move would have been being in T bills until the market peaked, then bought in.

So my move is to stay disciplined to the decision I made in 2017. If the market hits 2800 again, I will buy in. If the market does not hit 2800 by the time Biden takes office, I will buy in. Once I buy in, I will change my investment strategy and start to DCA all my retirement contributions into 100% index funds in the near term, with only rebalancing. Note I am rational, I just have different assumptions than yall do that drives my decision making. I don't think we are going to convince each other of anything differently so let's just sit back and watch me do this at my expense 🙂

 

[linkin06]

The Republican money injection?

All the stories I followed showed the Democratic Party trying to give more stimulus money while Mitch McConnell and his buddies continually opposed it, citing concerns that people make more from stimulus than their job.

 

[Mman]

The problem is I think there is 90% chance the market will drop. Without the republican money injection policies, the market will drop. It's simple macro econ. We just have to wait for reality to catch up.

Your "simple macro econ" is missing the simplest fact of all, that Democrats will want to pump even more money into the economy. Republicans are supposed to be the party of fiscal restraint and balanced budgets and small government. I mean they haven't exactly lived up to it, but at least they occasionally give it lip service. The farther left you go on the political spectrum, the more enthusiasm you will see for even more drastic stimulus and spending. I mean go far enough and you get into the realm of so called Modern Monetary Theory that would suggest there is no limit to how much money we can print until our borrowing costs start rising.

The odds of even bigger stimulus and spending in 2021 go up drastically with Biden in office.

 

[dchz]

Modern Monetary Theory that would suggest there is no limit to how much money we can print until our borrowing costs start rising.

The odds of even bigger stimulus and spending in 2021 go up drastically with Biden in office.

This is indeed a possibility. And it does have a lot of evidence for it in the last 10 years to support the modern monetary theory. Which explains my strategy in timing of me buying back in.

The Republican money injection?

All the stories I followed showed the Democratic Party trying to give more stimulus money while Mitch McConnell and his buddies continually opposed it, citing concerns that people make more from stimulus than their job.

Sorry I misspoke, the money injection by the Federal Reserve. I was not trying to make this political.

 

[pgg]

If the market drops 30% in the next 2 weeks, i will buy in fully and finished timing the market.

It could also be a possibility that the market prices go down and i get more shares and buy in low?

I feel like you're only presenting one side of the possibilites...

One possibility that should be considered is that the market may NEVER go down 30% from today's values. You could be waiting for a dip that never comes.

Imagine, if you will, an investor in 2013 who watched the DJIA cross 15,000 and felt it was unwarranted. He took his money out, and resolved to put it back in when it dropped just 10%.

He's still waiting.

 

[Shimmy8]

The only person timing the market well is my damn employer. Those MFers have it down to a science. Every single f****** time the market tops out, they contribute a lump sum.

 

[Mman]

One possibility that should be considered is that the market may NEVER go down 30% from today's values. You could be waiting for a dip that never comes.

Imagine, if you will, an investor in 2013 who watched the DJIA cross 15,000 and felt it was unwarranted. He took his money out, and resolved to put it back in when it dropped just 10%.

He's still waiting.

that is the most obvious point that some people just can't/won't/don't get. The views of market is overvalued and about to tank are wrong somewhere more than 95% of the time. And the 95% of the time it is wrong they end up locking in missed gains that they can never recover. Once in a blue moon the imminent crash call is correct and the person that makes it spends the next 30 years predicting 100 crashes that never happen because they erroneously think their first correct guess was skill and not luck.

 

[linkin06]

This is indeed a possibility. And it does have a lot of evidence for it in the last 10 years to support the modern monetary theory. Which explains my strategy in timing of me buying back in.



Sorry I misspoke, the money injection by the Federal Reserve. I was not trying to make this political.

Then where do you get the 90% confidence the market will drop? The federal reserve is apolitical, but you seemed to inform your decisions based on the election results making you 90% confident it will now drop with Biden.



the absolute truth is nobody knows. you could be right, but you could just as likely be wrong. the proven technique is continually investing every pay period. market timing may make you win in the "short" term (talking years even), but in the long term when you need the money, you'll likely lose.

 

[abolt18]

that is the most obvious point that some people just can't/won't/don't get. The views of market is overvalued and about to tank are wrong somewhere more than 95% of the time. And the 95% of the time it is wrong they end up locking in missed gains that they can never recover. Once in a blue moon the imminent crash call is correct and the person that makes it spends the next 30 years predicting 100 crashes that never happen because they erroneously think their first correct guess was skill and not luck.

Hey, I loaded mine and my wife's Roth IRAs (2019 contributions) this year at the end of March. Couldn't have timed it much better if I tried to. Clearly my gut is an excellent predictor of the market, even well in advance since I had been planning to contribute to them at that time for months. Everyone, give me all your money and I'll give you my predictions.

 

[dchz]

One possibility that should be considered is that the market may NEVER go down 30% from today's values. You could be waiting for a dip that never comes.

Imagine, if you will, an investor in 2013 who watched the DJIA cross 15,000 and felt it was unwarranted. He took his money out, and resolved to put it back in when it dropped just 10%.

He's still waiting.

I did consider that, hence I will buy in once Biden takes office as a time frame trigger

 

[GassYous]

Hey, I loaded mine and my wife's Roth IRAs (2019 contributions) this year at the end of March. Couldn't have timed it much better if I tried to. Clearly my gut is an excellent predictor of the market, even well in advance since I had been planning to contribute to them at that time for months. Everyone, give me all your money and I'll give you my predictions.

Ha I put my wife's in at February and completely regretted it. If I had forgotten to do it that day I would have put it in at the bottom of the market. Then I bought a decent amount in April so I was pretty happy about that.

 

[anbuitachi]

This market is a TOTAL BUY post election. You will look back at this post in just a few weeks and wonder why in the heck did I sell rather than buy stocks?
The USA will be in total stimulus mode in 2021 spending more money in 1 year than we spend in 3-4 years. I don't agree with this massive debt nor do I condone a Green new deal but the fact remains the economy is going to come roaring back in 2021 no matter who wins this election.

The U.S .dollar is a "sell" but gold, bitcoin and stocks are all buys.

Changing your portfolio based on this election may be a mistake as the Fed could matter more

Wall Street is awash with strategic advice on how to play either a new Joe Biden presidency or another four years of Donald Trump.

www.cnbc.com

the question becomes when to sell and when to go back in again.

 

[anbuitachi]

the biggest concern is we are all betting that market will keep going up and up over long run.. because of our history in the past <100 years, which isnt even THAT long. my question is how do we know we arent just at teh upslope of something like japan's market?

it looked great for FOURTY years, it just kept going up. from 100 to 39000!! A 390x difference in 40 years. Since then, in the 30 years to follow, they have never reached that peak.

How do we know we arent simply on the upslope, with a flat/downward slope to come?

 

[GassYous]

the biggest concern is we are all betting that market will keep going up and up over long run.. because of our history in the past <100 years, which isnt even THAT long. my question is how do we know we arent just at teh upslope of something like japan's market?

View attachment 322676

it looked great for FOURTY years, it just kept going up. from 100 to 39000!! A 390x difference in 40 years. Since then, in the 30 years to follow, they have never reached that peak.

How do we know we arent simply on the upslope, with a flat/downward slope to come?

We don't. Everything is risk benefit.