Anyone working in Illinois?

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urge

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State is about to financially implode soon. Anyone jumping ship yet?

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Not in Illinois, but if you have a significant percentage of your patients with Illinois Medicaid, you should probably be thinking about leaving for a better job anyway. Illinois is broke but why should you leave the state?


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Not in Illinois, but if you have a significant percentage of your patients with Illinois Medicaid, you should probably be thinking about leaving for a better job anyway. Illinois is broke but why should you leave the state?


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Increased risk of essential services not being provided. Fewer teachers, police, fire, EMS, transit workers. Increased risks of strikes or other job actions by government employees making life painful, Less money for road repair, school construction, education. Likely increased taxes and fees wherever they can find. General reductions in quality of life.
 
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Increased risk of essential services not being provided. Fewer teachers, police, fire, EMS, transit workers. Increased risks of strikes or other job actions by government employees making life painful, Less money for road repair, school construction, education. Likely increased taxes and fees wherever they can find. General reductions in quality of life.

I would have to agree on the 'general reduction in the quality of life'. Many DOT projects are going to come to a standstill. Lots of people will get laid off. 94 and 294 are already impossible to use on most weekdays. Crime, corruption and murder will probably hit new highs. Illinois is headed for tough times. Springfield is contemplating increasing the state income tax and probably the sales tax too. Many companies are moving their offices and warehouses to Indiana and Wisconsin. But for most anesthesiologists in the burbs, life will go on as usual.


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I would have to agree on the 'general reduction in the quality of life'. Many DOT projects are going to come to a standstill. Lots of people will get laid off. 94 and 294 are already impossible to use on most weekdays. Crime, corruption and murder will probably hit new highs. Illinois is headed for tough times. Springfield is contemplating increasing the state income tax and probably the sales tax too. Many companies are moving their offices and warehouses to Indiana and Wisconsin. But for most anesthesiologists in the burbs, life will go on as usual.


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The impact will definitely be less for docs in the burbs, but they are not immune. Less government employees (state, city, county) means less good insurance mix and less people who are able to pay their bills. Hospitals collecting less...under more pressure...Squeeze their docs more. Municipal budgets will suffer. Suburban schools and suburban infrastructure will suffer. Taxes will go up.
 
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The impact will definitely be less for docs in the burbs, but they are not immune. Less government employees (state, city, county) means less good insurance mix and less people who are able to pay their bills. Hospitals collecting less...under more pressure...Squeeze their docs more. Municipal budgets will suffer. Suburban schools and suburban infrastructure will suffer. Taxes will go up.

It's not a sudden change. The accounts receivables from Illinois Medicaid are over 12 months. We just do those cases for free, basically. And that's been going on for several years now. Fortunately it's not a significant percentage of our caseload. Downtown hospitals and those in Waukegan Tinley Park and Joliet will definitely feel the pinch. Naperville Highland Park and Lake Forest, not so much. Everybody is on a 'wait and see' right now.


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That's just the talk of the stuff north of I-80. The rest of IL which is VASTLYdifferent than the big business/crime syndication/great Chicago-land will suffer more. They are already woefully ignored for the things that happen north of I-80, and it won't get better when the state's finances collapse on themselves.
 
Up to a point. Judges can give all the orders that they want. If the money ain't there it don't matter. More than one pension simply followed the rules, wrote benefit checks, emptied their accounts and subsequently closed shop. SOL


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Illinois will do what California did to sorta of shore up their pension plans. CAlifornia is now like number 20 on the pension list of states in terms of funding. Illinois is dead last at number 50.

What California did what pass this Prop 30 by faking the public with propaganda saying extra taxes on wealthier people (2-4% surcharge on state income taxes for those making more than 500k) would help paying for public schools and fire fighters and police officers. But the tax revenue generated just went to the general pool to than shift to fund the pension plans.

As we predicted, pensions eating up Prop. 30 education funds | CalWatchdog.com

It's like dirty money used by heads of states to over pay for foreign hotel (like Russian money used to over pay 30% over market value for hotels). And once the hotels get resold. That money comes out clean.
 
That Illinois, Cook County, and Chicago are screwed is without a doubt. All are insolvent and no amount of tax increases will fix it since people will just keep leaving the state, and if the economy wasn't doing well it would already be getting ugly. Pension reform is the only way they would be able to solve it without help from the outside, and the amount of lawsuits and fighting that would be met with would be staggering.

What will make this interesting is if they ask the federal government for help - is there any precedent for that? Given that the current administration's proposed tax plan that punishes high tax blue states by attacking the federal deductions for state and property taxes, it seems unlikely they would be willing to help. But I would think any sort of bailout would set a dangerous precedent given how many states are flirting with insurmountable pension debt.
 
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That Illinois, Cook County, and Chicago are screwed is without a doubt. All are insolvent and no amount of tax increases will fix it since people will just keep leaving the state, and if the economy wasn't doing well it would already be getting ugly. Pension reform is the only way they would be able to solve it without help from the outside, and the amount of lawsuits and fighting that would be met with would be staggering.

What will make this interesting is if they ask the federal government for help - is there any precedent for that? Given that the current administration's proposed tax plan that punishes high tax blue states by attacking the federal deductions for state and property taxes, it seems unlikely they would be willing to help. But I would think any sort of bailout would set a dangerous precedent given how many states are flirting with insurmountable pension debt.

Detroit asked for federal help. The polite response from the federal govt was that Detroit would have to work it out with its creditors.
What happened? After much legal fighting, everyone took a bite of the giant **** sandwich: Bond holders, current city employees, pensioners, residents. How big a bite one had to endure was based local politics, local judges, mediators, and negotiators. As state and municipal blow ups continue, I expect that the same will be repeated. Going forward I expect that Bond holders will eat bigger bites of the sandwich.
 
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Detroit asked for federal help. The polite response from the federal govt was that Detroit would have to work it out with its creditors.
What happened? After much legal fighting, everyone took a bite of the giant **** sandwich: Bond holders, current city employees, pensioners, residents. How big a bite one had to endure was based local politics, local judges, mediators, and negotiators. As state and municipal blow ups continue, I expect that the same will be repeated. Going forward I expect that Bond holders will eat bigger bites of the sandwich.

We will all eat increasingly bigger bites of the sandwich as time goes on, whether we are in Illinois or Texas. There is a lot of ruin in a nation, especially one as huge and previously powerful as the USA, but eventually the effects of third-worldization filter down from the macro scale and are felt by the individual. Those at the bottom suffer first, as their jobs flee to China and their neighborhoods are invaded by "affordable housing", but doctors and others further up the food chain will start to personally feel the decline soon enough.

It's beyond obvious that the only thing holding this mess together is the magic of reserve currency money printing and debt issuance. Equally obvious is that no country can use reserve-currency status just to hold itself together and retain reserve currency status for very long. The only question is how long until either China displaces the US as the issuer of the reserve currency, or failing that, the entire global financial system collapses under the weight of paper assets and liabilities that are orders of magnitude larger than the underlying world economic output. I hope it's at least 10 years for either outcome so I can finish training and bust my balls for a few years to buy up hard assets back in the old country. I'd prefer 15 years, but 10 is enough to ride out the storm, even if not exactly in the type of style I'd ideally want.
 
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Tax increase already in the works.


Illinois House OKs income tax hike, spending plan; Rauner vows vetoes

Corporate tax to 7% from 5.25%.
Just hate it when they use just the state "income" tax rate. Does each city or county charge their own income tax

When I was young and dumb. They said Maryland state income tax was "only 4.75%". Yet no one told me about the 3.2% county income tax rate. That's 7.95% total state and income tax rate. Now it's 5.75% state income tax rate plus the 3.2% county income tax rate. For a tots of 8.95% state/county tax rate.
 
Don't look now, but China has some debt problems too. They're more screwed than we are.

US has way more issues than China... US media literally has been bashing China for almost a decade now, about how they'll crash any time now yet China has grew very quickly. And US has a lot more issues than just debt. Our healthcare is messed up, our president is messed up, our people's IQ are lowering, people are more divided than ever.
China's has very few issues in comparison in their eyes. We only think they are screwed cause we use american standards to judge them
 
US has way more issues than China... US media literally has been bashing China for almost a decade now, about how they'll crash any time now yet China has grew very quickly. And US has a lot more issues than just debt. Our healthcare is messed up, our president is messed up, our people's IQ are lowering, people are more divided than ever.
China's has very few issues in comparison in their eyes. We only think they are screwed cause we use american standards to judge them

No. China is screwed for at least another generation, probably two or three.

Our healthcare system will be fine. We have uninsured people and that's a problem. Illness can bankrupt people and that's a problem. The difference between our non-debt problems and China's non-debt problems is that ours are political fabrications that will be solved, eventually. We don't have 1.3 billion people living in abject poverty, superfund sites but no superfund, a demographic catastrophe looming, a communist totalitarian anchor around our necks, a useless military -

Well, rather than retype all the reasons, I'll just link another thread with my opinions on the matter.

Not to put too fine a point on it, China is ****ed. It will be generations before they have any chance of being anything other than a regional power.
 
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No. China is screwed for at least another generation, probably two or three.

Our healthcare system will be fine. We have uninsured people and that's a problem. Illness can bankrupt people and that's a problem. The difference between our non-debt problems and China's non-debt problems is that ours are political fabrications that will be solved, eventually. We don't have 1.3 billion people living in abject poverty, superfund sites but no superfund, a demographic catastrophe looming, a communist totalitarian anchor around our necks, a useless military -

Well, rather than retype all the reasons, I'll just link another thread with my opinions on the matter.

Not to put too fine a point on it, China is ****ed. It will be generations before they have any chance of being anything other than a regional power.

Haha that's viewing china from the eyes of an american. Go to china, people are happy. Poverty is relative. Daily life is not affected by the communist government. Just think about it. Per capita income significantly increased. Quality of life significantly increased. People are thanking the government for this. My family went from no fridge, no electricity 15 yrs ago to having both now (hopefully running water too soon). And the government is subsidizing healthcare so you now dont have to sit home and die if you get sick! There's also their version of social security which starts at 50 yrs old for women I believe. It's only from the outside where we only see China as a country with human rights issues, blah blah. You go to China, the people rather have their issues than the American issues, gun violence, discrimination, etc. Sure economically as a whole, China is still pretty behind from American, but the 1.3B ppl literally had their quality of living significant improve over the last 1-2 decades, there really aren't that many complainers. Common middle class are affording luxury goods now, eating out, living comfortably. It's just that American news mainly focus on the negatives
 
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Haha that's viewing china from the eyes of an american. Go to china, people are happy. Poverty is relative. Daily life is not affected by the communist government. Just think about it. Per capita income significantly increased. Quality of life significantly increased. People are thanking the government for this. My family went from no fridge, no electricity 15 yrs ago to having both now (hopefully running water too soon). And the government is subsidizing healthcare so you now dont have to sit home and die if you get sick! There's also their version of social security which starts at 50 yrs old for women I believe. It's only from the outside where we only see China as a country with human rights issues, blah blah. You go to China, the people rather have their issues than the American issues, gun violence, discrimination, etc. Sure economically as a whole, China is still pretty behind from American, but the 1.3B ppl literally had their quality of living significant improve over the last 1-2 decades, there really aren't that many complainers. Common middle class are affording luxury goods now, eating out, living comfortably. It's just that American news mainly focus on the negatives

This. People who haven't experienced 3rd world living sometimes lack perspective although I do believe PGG with his military service does have an idea what it's like.

I work with a cardiac surgeon who was born in the Middle East. I was born in Asia. We talk about our early childhood in homes without running water and sporadic electricity. Something as simple as a hot shower or taking a **** without going outside was unimaginable. Air conditioning?? Hahaha. People have short memories and little appreciation for economic development and technological progress. This truly is a force for good in the world. (Anybody else remember taking call with a pager and no cell phone?) For China, the train has left the station, much like the American industrial revolution. It is trading in a set of 3rd world problems for the 1st world problems rattled off by PGG. This transition is always wrought with problems. Still, for much of the population there, the improvement in quality of life was unfathomable as recently as 30 years ago. The people are excited and energized by the progress they see and are willing to work to get a piece of it.

China is a "regional power" in one of the most vital regions of the world. The demand for English language instruction in other Asian nations has declined while demand for Mandarin instruction has skyrocketed. Chinese language immersion schools have even popped up in the United States. If that is not a signal of rising influence, I don't know what is. And the Chinese are not just buying up Vancouver and Sydney. Look at the good school districts around LA and see who's buying $2-10mil 2nd homes cash. The existing residents complain about the local schools being overrun by Chinese. China may be f***ed but they are already a force to be reckoned with.
 
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I don't doubt that the average Chinese family is somewhat better off now than it was 30 years ago. But we're talking about global influence and power projection, and peasants, however happy they are about acquiring home appliances for the first time, aren't going to bootstrap themselves into aircraft carriers and start throwing their weight around half a world away.

What I'm disagreeing with is the ubiquitous narrative about China's inevitable ascendancy to a position of world dominance in a political, economic, social, and military sense. And it just isn't in the cards.

However happy the masses are.
 
Wait, isn't this Obama's state? How is this possible?!?
 
I don't doubt that the average Chinese family is somewhat better off now than it was 30 years ago. But we're talking about global influence and power projection, and peasants, however happy they are about acquiring home appliances for the first time, aren't going to bootstrap themselves into aircraft carriers and start throwing their weight around half a world away.

What I'm disagreeing with is the ubiquitous narrative about China's inevitable ascendancy to a position of world dominance in a political, economic, social, and military sense. And it just isn't in the cards.

However happy the masses are.

If no wars soon to bring china down, i see it. aircraft carriers are overrated. when countries get serious, a nuke will wipe out all your carriers. and China is very advanced in cyber warfare, which i think will be huge in the next war.
 
. I hope it's at least 10 years for either outcome so I can finish training and bust my balls for a few years to buy up hard assets back in the old country. I'd prefer 15 years, but 10 is enough to ride out the storm, even if not exactly in the type of style I'd ideally want.

where's the old country? is it nice there? and are there beautiful women there?
 
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If no wars soon to bring china down, i see it. aircraft carriers are overrated. when countries get serious, a nuke will wipe out all your carriers. and China is very advanced in cyber warfare, which i think will be huge in the next war.

No nation with rational leaders will ever use nuclear weapons, so their existence is irrelevant with regard to the projection of conventional military power. We went down this road with the Soviet Union, M.A.D., proxy wars, etc. China gives no indication of being a more formidable adversary than the Soviets were - or even any ambition to do so.

For all the talk of how vulnerable carrier air groups are, the truth is we've been using them to project power for 70 years and China hasn't, and can't, and won't. The other part of force projection is established foreign bases and logistics; we have 100s in dozens of countries, China has one, in Africa.

As I mentioned in the other thread, if there's anything China is doing well and making progress in, it's space and cyber.

But they are at most a regional power, and that won't change for generations, at least. They can't even corral Best Korea, or get Taiwan to fall in line despite their stern words and longstanding One China fiction.
 
I recently did an Asian tour including a visit to China. China is an amazing place. I also visited Japan. Another amazing place. I would say Tokyo is a city that easily ranks with NYC, London and a handful of others as a world class city. There's a grandeur to these cities. But I don't think I can say the same for Beijing or Shanghai, though maybe they are getting there. Hong Kong seems like it was once a world class city but is now fading away.
 
This has now been nominated as a Top 5 Most Tangential Discussion for this website. From the state of working in Illinois to Chinese cyber warfare and global military presence. Love it and can't wait to see where it goes next.
 
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I recently did an Asian tour including a visit to China. China is an amazing place. I also visited Japan. Another amazing place. I would say Tokyo is a city that easily ranks with NYC, London and a handful of others as a world class city. There's a grandeur to these cities. But I don't think I can say the same for Beijing or Shanghai, though maybe they are getting there. Hong Kong seems like it was once a world class city but is now fading away.

Shanghai is pretty good. Newer cities like Shenzhen is beautiful.

No nation with rational leaders will ever use nuclear weapons, so their existence is irrelevant with regard to the projection of conventional military power. We went down this road with the Soviet Union, M.A.D., proxy wars, etc. China gives no indication of being a more formidable adversary than the Soviets were - or even any ambition to do so.

For all the talk of how vulnerable carrier air groups are, the truth is we've been using them to project power for 70 years and China hasn't, and can't, and won't. The other part of force projection is established foreign bases and logistics; we have 100s in dozens of countries, China has one, in Africa.

As I mentioned in the other thread, if there's anything China is doing well and making progress in, it's space and cyber.

But they are at most a regional power, and that won't change for generations, at least. They can't even corral Best Korea, or get Taiwan to fall in line despite their stern words and longstanding One China fiction.

Yea, we haven't had a world war since ww2, when only US had nukes at the time, and we used it. Wait til WW3, nukes be flying everywhere =)
 
Yea, we haven't had a world war since ww2, when only US had nukes at the time, and we used it. Wait til WW3, nukes be flying everywhere =)

If nukes start flying, then it'll hardly matter whose economy is outsourcing where, who's drilling for oil in The South China Sea, who holds whose debt, and whether or not every family has a refrigerator.

I don't have a fallout shelter so I choose not to think about about scenarios that end in global armageddon. :)
 
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This has now been nominated as a Top 5 Most Tangential Discussion for this website. From the state of working in Illinois to Chinese cyber warfare and global military presence. Love it and can't wait to see where it goes next.
Lot of hot air around.
 
Detroit asked for federal help. The polite response from the federal govt was that Detroit would have to work it out with its creditors.
What happened? After much legal fighting, everyone took a bite of the giant **** sandwich: Bond holders, current city employees, pensioners, residents. How big a bite one had to endure was based local politics, local judges, mediators, and negotiators. As state and municipal blow ups continue, I expect that the same will be repeated. Going forward I expect that Bond holders will eat bigger bites of the sandwich.

The difference is that cities can declare bankruptcy. Under the Constitution and the laws as they currently stand, states can not. The Detroit creditors had a motivation to work with the city to restructure the debt since the city always had the nuclear option to play hardball. That does not work with Illinois since the state cannot make the debts disappear. They may not be paid until the year 2700, but they will still exist.
 
The difference is that cities can declare bankruptcy. Under the Constitution and the laws as they currently stand, states can not. The Detroit creditors had a motivation to work with the city to restructure the debt since the city always had the nuclear option to play hardball. That does not work with Illinois since the state cannot make the debts disappear. They may not be paid until the year 2700, but they will still exist.

Completely fair and valid point. Doesn't change the math. Illinois and almost certainly Kentucky, New Jersey, and a few others absolutely cannot miracle enough money to meet their obligations. They will default on somebody somehow. (absent a federal bailout) I would bet good money that Federal law will change to allow bankruptcy of states and deals will be struck, they will get a bailout, or will have essential services collapse. Do you see any other possible future?
 
Completely fair and valid point. Doesn't change the math. Illinois and almost certainly Kentucky, New Jersey, and a few others absolutely cannot miracle enough money to meet their obligations. They will default on somebody somehow. (absent a federal bailout) I would bet good money that Federal law will change to allow bankruptcy of states and deals will be struck, they will get a bailout, or will have essential services collapse. Do you see any other possible future?

No. And the point behind my point is that something has to change. This is a pretty good example of the irresistible force meets the immovable object. There is no way these obligations can be paid. There is basically no legal mechanism to force them to be paid or no assets to go after to get them paid. (How much is a state capitol building worth?) There is even less willingness on the part of the citizens of Indiana to bail out Illinois. California is sui generis. There is plenty of money in that state even if it is not spent wisely. In Kentucky and to a lesser extent Illinois there is not much blood to squeeze out of the stone.

The good think about bankruptcy is that it forces both sides to negotiate because they both have a lot to lose. Without that big hammer there is nothing to force all the parties to come together in compromise in states like Illinois. It would pretty much take a new law and likely a new Amendment to the Constitution to get something so draconian in place that it forces everyone to compromise.
 
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The good think about bankruptcy is that it forces both sides to negotiate because they both have a lot to lose. Without that big hammer there is nothing to force all the parties to come together in compromise in states like Illinois. It would pretty much take a new law and likely a new Amendment to the Constitution to get something so draconian in place that it forces everyone to compromise.
How do you negotiate pensions and medicaid benefits? Only the citizens come out losing.
 
How do you negotiate pensions and medicaid benefits? Only the citizens come out losing.

We are all, (well almost all) citizens. Depends on which citizens you choose to care about. Only Illinois? other US citizens? Current govt employees? retired govt employees? future govt employees? The people that those govt employees serve? the elderly? mentally ill? Taxpayers? bondholders? school students? prisoners? homeless? Private Companies (and their employees) that sell goods and services to the state or city? Who gets the biggest bite of the **** sandwich?
 
We are all, (well almost all) citizens. Depends on which citizens you choose to care about. Only Illinois? other US citizens? Current govt employees? retired govt employees? future govt employees? The people that those govt employees serve? the elderly? mentally ill? Taxpayers? bondholders? school students? prisoners? homeless? Private Companies (and their employees) that sell goods and services to the state or city? Who gets the biggest bite of the **** sandwich?
How does tge government eat part of the sandwich?

It's "heads I win, tails you lose" for the government.
 
How does tge government eat part of the sandwich?

It's "heads I win, tails you lose" for the government.

Operationally, "Government" Is nothing more than the sum of the behavior of elected officials and those that follow their directives. Politicians and elected officials will be even more despised. Harder for incumbents to get reelected. More likely that there will be more Trumps and Bernie Sanders going forward. Less government employees with worse benefit/salary package. Maybe even less civil service job security.
 
If no wars soon to bring china down, i see it. aircraft carriers are overrated. when countries get serious, a nuke will wipe out all your carriers. and China is very advanced in cyber warfare, which i think will be huge in the next war.

Nukes aren't needed to take out a carrier. All you need a hypersonic missiles with saturation methods employed.

DF-21 - Wikipedia
 
Surprise surprise, they decide to raise taxes and just kick the can down the road for a couple more years: Illinois Lawmakers Override Budget Veto, Ending Two-Year Stalemate

Brahnold is right, it appears no one is interested in being responsible and reckless spending will just continue until the middle class has been eaten alive.
That's how it works. The system doesn't change, it collapses.

That economic stratification may lead to collapse on its own, on the other hand, came as more of a surprise to Motesharrei and his colleagues. Under this scenario, elites push society toward instability and eventual collapse by hoarding huge quantities of wealth and resources, and leaving little or none for commoners who vastly outnumber them yet support them with labour. Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the elites due to the absence of labour. The inequalities we see today both within and between countries already point to such disparitie
How Western civilisation could collapse

Substitute elites with Retirees with never ending entitlement benefits (i.e., Boomers in our other thread) and you have a recipe for disaster.
 
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