I’m going to walk back all the statements I made above.
I realize now I significantly misread the situation. OPs friend is not a first year PA student but is yet to start which makes a big difference here and makes what everyone I’m disagreeing with (Goro, CF, London) make more sense. I apologize to all of you and OP for creating confusion. I initially mistook Goro’s post to mean that OPs friend is not a competitive candidate and it was a “bad idea” to apply to medical school which I interpreted as typical SDN premed neuroticism. Now I see he meant it was a bad idea to matriculate into PA school which is a obviously completely different.
If we can all agree she’s competitive for medical school and should apply for that this year and just not matriculate into PA school, I think that’s good advice. I still think she will be judged more on her profile than her matriculation into PA school and still get interviews even if she chooses to stay on that path but yeah, if she chooses to stay matriculated while applying to medical school, that will be the central focus of her application and a potential stumbling block at every point of the review process which she can completely avoid by just not matriculating.
In regards to hedging bets with the PA route, PA school is not going anywhere and tons are likely rejected from medical school. Now, deferring a PA acceptance is something I’m not certain about but I don’t think it’s an insurmountable issue if you choose to reapply to PA school if you don’t get in later.