Only two new lcme med schools were built between 1976/1982 (Mercer and university of south Florida) I think. No new lcme med schools created until 2000. A pretty long time to go without a new med school.
The number of med schools slots remained pretty consistent around 15k slots available for med schools over almost 25 years in that time period.
Number of applicants was at its lowest in 1989-1990 cycle (29k) for 15k slots. It peaked around 46k applications for 15/16k lcme slots in 1995/1996 cycle. You are absolutely correct it applications tanked after peaking in 1995/1996 cycle years.
Students went where the money was…the tech boom 1996-2000. Its is ALWAYS about the money. People chase money. As the tech crashed in 2000. You saw the applications for med school start to gradually go back up.
We have so many new lcme med schools being created that last 25 years. I simply cannot keep up. The latest new lcme (still in accreditation process) med school being the Walmart school of Medicine in Arkansas (I’m not kidding). Founded by Alice Walton of the Walmart family. And free tuition for the first 5 classes. I want to say we are up to 24k lcme med schools slots available these days. So from the low levels of 2000 (the easiest time to get into med school after tech crash). It took roughly up to 2021 to peak the same level of competitiveness to get into Med school. And astonishing 25 years to reach 1996 levels of competitiveness due to the ratio of slots available 15-16k slots/46k applications back in that era.
The data support that. Applicant totals have ranged from about 52,000 to 53,000 in recent years, except for a couple of years during the pandemic. For example:
- 2017-18 — 51,680
- 2019-20 — 53,369
- 2021-22 — 62,443 (Height of the pandemic)
- 2022-23 — 55,189
- 2023-24 — 52,577
- 2024-25 — 51,946
There are currently 23k slots for lcme schools available.
“That makes room for more new students. First-year enrollees (matriculants) rose 0.8% from the previous academic year, to 23,048, a new high.”
New data from AAMC show mixed trends, as applicant numbers fall. COVID might have played a role.
www.aamc.org
I’m not even including the number of new DO schools created either. I’m only putting the lcme data out.
So med school isn’t as “hard” to get into as everyone says these days. Us old timers still had the same ratios to compete with. Just more students competing for more meds schools slots.
But what is really competitive is the residency slots available. That has not kept up with the expansion of med school slots. Almost any lcme med school grad was pretty much guaranteed a residency slot. It’s no longer a guarantee.