ASHP Pharmacy Forecast 2013-2017 Strategic Planning Advice

Started by Its Z
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Its Z

Its Z

Retired
15+ Year Member
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Recently published based on a survey (which I participated).

Pretty good information if you get a chance to read it.

You would never believe this since all you ever read is that every hospital due to a budget cut every pharmacist is getting laid off. But...

"the estimated number of
hospital pharmacist positions grew by 34% between 2002 and 2011 (from 42,700 to
57,300) (estimated from ASHP national surveys)."

Estimation but if true, I didn't realize it but I believe it. I've seen more ED, Critical Care, IT, and ID pharmacists get added than positions being eliminated.
 
Its Z said:
"the estimated number of hospital pharmacist positions grew by 34% between 2002 and 2011 (from 42,700 to 57,300) (estimated from ASHP national surveys)."
Click to expand...

I think we all know the profession did exceptionally well from 2002-2008. Things started to slow down at the end of 2008.

The question should be how many positions were created from 2009 to 2011? 2012 to 2013?
 
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Its Z said:
Recently published based on a survey (which I participated).

Pretty good information if you get a chance to read it.

You would never believe this since all you ever read is that every hospital due to a budget cut every pharmacist is getting laid off. But...

"the estimated number of
hospital pharmacist positions grew by 34% between 2002 and 2011 (from 42,700 to
57,300) (estimated from ASHP national surveys)."

Estimation but if true, I didn't realize it but I believe it. I've seen more ED, Critical Care, IT, and ID pharmacists get added than positions being eliminated.
Click to expand...

Wow Z, you're right! Those pesky pharmacists getting laid off in 2012 and 2013 were just flukes in a study conducted from 2002 to 2011. I'm sure everything is just sweet and dandy. Pass the koolaid, brother.
 
BenJammin said:
Wow Z, you're right! Those pesky pharmacists getting laid off in 2012 and 2013 were just flukes in a study conducted from 2002 to 2011. I'm sure everything is just sweet and dandy. Pass the koolaid, brother.
Click to expand...

No one is getting laid off in my system. Choose wisely. doubt you will... but..
 
BenJammin said:
Wow Z, you're right! Those pesky pharmacists getting laid off in 2012 and 2013 were just flukes in a study conducted from 2002 to 2011. I'm sure everything is just sweet and dandy. Pass the koolaid, brother.
Click to expand...

Z has good intention but he's just out of touch of what's going on. He doesn't seem to understand that new graduates have 150-300 k in student loans, the chains mainly hire their own interns and hospitals have been cutting back. The pie is getting smaller and smaller
 
BMBiology said:
Z has good intention but he's just out of touch of what's going on. He doesn't seem to understand that new graduates have 150-300 k in student loans, the chains mainly hire their own interns and hospitals have been cutting back. The pie is getting smaller and smaller
Click to expand...

Not sure how I would lose touch working with over 40 hospital phamacies and 9 retail joints.. LOL.

You've been in CA too long and completely out of touch. Many schools with low tuition where students are graduating with less than 100K loans. Not every school is a diploma mill or private that charge $60K per year... Touro and North State aren't the only pharm schools... Look at U of AZ... U of AR.... and see their tuition. It'll piss you off because you can't claim they have to borrow 300K.
 
Its Z said:
Not sure how I would lose touch working with over 40 hospital phamacies and 9 retail joints.. LOL.

You've been in CA too long and completely out of touch. Many schools with low tuition where students are graduating with less than 100K loans. Not every school is a diploma mill or private that charge $60K per year... Touro and North State aren't the only pharm schools... Look at U of AZ... U of AR.... and see their tuition. It'll piss you off because you can't claim they have to borrow 300K.
Click to expand...

In-state tuition at U of AZ is 10,202 + 12,736 (mandatory fees) = almost 23,000 a year + living cost + compounding interest + origination fee. Cheap alright. Where have you been?

I did some calculation on the cost of attending pharmacy schools here:

http://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/calculated-cost-of-pharmacy-school.989770/

I would say it would cost 150-300 k for a pharmacy education for the vast majority of graduates (not including undergraduate debt).

Again, where have you been?
 
BMBiology said:
In-state tuition at U of AZ is 10,202 + 12,736 (mandatory fees) = almost 23,000 a year + living cost + compounding interest + origination fee. Cheap alright. Where have you been?

I did some calculation on the cost of attending pharmacy schools here:

http://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/calculated-cost-of-pharmacy-school.989770/

I would say it would cost 150-300 k for a pharmacy education for the vast majority of graduates (not including undergraduate debt).

Again, where have you been?
Click to expand...

My school charges roughly 16k per year tuition and fees instate and about 26k out of state...but I will say this is a public institution in Texas.
 
BMBiology said:
In-state tuition at U of AZ is 10,202 + 12,736 (mandatory fees) = almost 23,000 a year + living cost + compounding interest + origination fee. Cheap alright. Where have you been?

I did some calculation on the cost of attending pharmacy schools here:

http://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/calculated-cost-of-pharmacy-school.989770/

I would say it would cost 150-300 k for a pharmacy education for the vast majority of graduates (not including undergraduate debt).

Again, where have you been?
Click to expand...
Several in my class graduating with <100K largely because they worked during school and took out minimal loans. I'd say the majority are <130K. I think the average was 120K last year. They publish that data. I'd have to double check.

Cost of living here is cheap as hell. Intern positions are high paying.

Also, everyone gets scholarships. Everyone. Every year. Plus there are a ton to apply for within the college.

We also get reimbursement for travel to conferences and there are additional travel grants available. You also get extra for doing a poster.

I'd say it's a deal compared to other places 🙂
 
Yeah but how much do you have to spend on a/c per month?

It is still pretty expensive for a public school located in Arizona. The cost of living is lower but so is the salary.

If you are not a resident there, you would have to pay out of state tuition.

I just find it funny that Z used UofA as an example of affordability.
 
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BM, here is a sig for you. Saves you a load of trouble from sounding like a broken record.

I'm very happy with my job But you shouldn't pursue pharmacy because you will have $150-$300k in loans and in desperation you will take my Job for $35 per hour and we cant have that.
 
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What is next, Z? Are you going to release a report telling us how much salary has gone up from 2000 to 2008? LOL
 
BMBiology said:
Yeah but how much do you have to spend on a/c per month?

It is still pretty expensive for a public school located in Arizona. The cost of living is lower but so is the salary.

If you are not a resident there, you would have to pay out of state tuition.

I just find it funny that Z used UofA as an example of affordability.
Click to expand...
LOL a/c bill high for two months maybe three and it's comparable to a winter heat bill in places like Minnesota. Since August my electric has been ~$35 a month for a 700sq ft apartment with a Western exposure.

Out of state tuition is expensive most places. Most students are residents though. I think we had like 5 out of state students and they gained residency second half of second year.

The salary is lower how?? Citation?? WTF are you even talking about?! I've surveyed people on salary. It's pretty much the same and MORE if you go rural.

You also get more bang for your buck here in terms of home ownership....I mean seriously. I think UA is a prime example of affordable education. Plus it's a good school.

I think you're making **** up now.
 
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Calm down. I was only jabbing you about how hot it is to live in Arizona during the summer

And seriously, you need to move to rural Arizona for a decent job?
 
I got offered a 2nd interview for a full-time job at the #1 ranked hospital (by USNews) here in NYC. (I'm already working full-time at one hospital and per-diem at another hospital, both are part of the top 3 health systems in NYC). I haven't really felt much of this doom and gloom that everyone is talking about. Yeah, I had to apply and interview like everyone else, not too big of a deal. There's only one thing that would make my situation perfect, and that would be having no debt or much less debt. (I'm close to 350k in debt.)

Or is my case an anomaly for a 2012 grad. I'm trying to figure out why is it that so many people who are trying to get a staff pharmacist job can't get one, if it seems that every time I apply to something I get a call from a hiring manager. Does me simply having 2 hospital pharmacy jobs make me more attractive to a potential employer versus someone who just graduated school, worked retail before, has had a hospital job for 5-10 years but has been unemployed 2-3 years, etc?
 
BMBiology said:
Calm down. I was only jabbing you about how hot it is to live in Arizona during the summer

And seriously, you need to move to rural Arizona for a decent job?
Click to expand...
I'm not excited. I found your post silly.

There are great jobs in the cities but they pay a **** ton more in the middle of nowhere. That's in every state that needs more rural health providers though...not just AZ.
 
Its Z said:
Recently published based on a survey (which I participated).

Pretty good information if you get a chance to read it.

You would never believe this since all you ever read is that every hospital due to a budget cut every pharmacist is getting laid off. But...

"the estimated number of
hospital pharmacist positions grew by 34% between 2002 and 2011 (from 42,700 to
57,300) (estimated from ASHP national surveys)."

Estimation but if true, I didn't realize it but I believe it. I've seen more ED, Critical Care, IT, and ID pharmacists get added than positions being eliminated.
Click to expand...
Kind of sounds like President Obama when he says that 2.5 million jobs were created during his presidency, which is good, but no where near enough. Hospitals making an average of 1,460 new positions per year during a great expansionary period for pharmacy, is also not enough when the schools are pumping out 15,000 new grads each year.

Selling hopes and dreams is all well and good in the beginning, but when those dreams inevitably don't pan out for the unlucky ones, obviously they will turn against you. I know people who busted ass during school and PGY-1, and then could only get per-diem shifts at Walgreens or had to move to rural BFE away from spouses, family and friends to find a job. Yeah, pass the Kool-Aid please.
 
pezdispenser said:
Kind of sounds like President Obama
Click to expand...

Oh no you didn't.

Hospitals making an average of 1,460 new positions per year during a great expansionary period for pharmacy, is also not enough when the schools are pumping out 15,000 new grads each year.
Click to expand...

Since when the responsibility of job market expansion resides with hospitals?

Selling hopes and dreams is all well and good in the beginning, but when those dreams inevitably don't pan out for the unlucky ones, obviously they will turn against you. I know people who busted ass during school and PGY-1, and then could only get per-diem shifts at Walgreens or had to move to rural BFE away from spouses, family and friends to find a job.
Click to expand...

I don't sell hopes and dreams. I sell facts. And for every one of those PGY1 you describe, I'll show you 9 who are doing well.

Yeah, pass the Kool-Aid please.
Click to expand...

Glad you like Kool Aid. I don't.
 
pezdispenser said:
Kind of sounds like President Obama when he says that 2.5 million jobs were created during his presidency, which is good, but no where near enough. Hospitals making an average of 1,460 new positions per year during a great expansionary period for pharmacy, is also not enough when the schools are pumping out 15,000 new grads each year.
Click to expand...

It isn't the hospital's responsibility to create positions if they aren't needed. The schools should be responsible and not create so many spots for incoming students.
 
Recently published based on a survey (which I participated).

Pretty good information if you get a chance to read it.

You would never believe this since all you ever read is that every hospital due to a budget cut every pharmacist is getting laid off. But...

"the estimated number of
hospital pharmacist positions grew by 34% between 2002 and 2011 (from 42,700 to
57,300) (estimated from ASHP national surveys)."

Estimation but if true, I didn't realize it but I believe it. I've seen more ED, Critical Care, IT, and ID pharmacists get added than positions being eliminated.

I don't log on on SDN as much because of the new layout, and the negative response of informative posts.

but......

Z isn't saying anything here but posting information from a survey. For me, this survey only confirms that the situation is dire. In the course of 9 years, the job market for hospital pharmacists expanded by 15,000 jobs. Most of those jobs are already spoken for. On the other side of the equation, we had more students graduated than expanded... probably all in one year.

The retail equation isn't any better.

and I have seen it personally... new grads used to get a dollar extra every year. The starting rate for 2013 was the same rate as 2009. We used to offer to 100 % of our grads ft positions at 88 hours q2 weeks. Now, we are hiring less interns, AND still offering them less positions (0 to 50%), with 60 hrs q2 weeks. Any turn over is immediately replaced by transfers or spoken for (by floaters who are waiting for a store).


......... and anything that me, z, or Sparda seen is a small sample size that should be taken with a grain of salt. We should really be looking at surveys, what employers are doing, market situations (every market is different...), and then take it for what it is.
 
Its Z said:
Since when the responsibility of job market expansion resides with hospitals?

I don't sell hopes and dreams. I sell facts. And for every one of those PGY1 you describe, I'll show you 9 who are doing well.
Click to expand...
The responsibility doesn't reside with hospitals. Hospitals probably only make up 25% of the jobs. I can speak for the retail side which makes up about 60%, and we are not expanding like we were in the 2000s. So really, the ASHP report just confirms that there are not enough jobs, and some pharmacists will be unemployed.

I won't dispute your PGY1 odds either. So can we say, you can do a residency, but you still have a 1 in 10 possibility of not getting a decent job?
 
My salary has gone up 13% since 2008 and we have tripled our staff of FT pharmacists in that same period due to growth. Every market is different.
 
pezdispenser said:
The responsibility doesn't reside with hospitals. Hospitals probably only make up 25% of the jobs. I can speak for the retail side which makes up about 60%, and we are not expanding like we were in the 2000s. So really, the ASHP report just confirms that there are not enough jobs, and some pharmacists will be unemployed.

I won't dispute your PGY1 odds either. So can we say, you can do a residency, but you still have a 1 in 10 possibility of not getting a decent job?
Click to expand...

There's no guaranty in life.

No pharmacy boom when I graduated. I moved 2,000 miles to find an evening pharmacist job.

I only promote PGY1 and further education to enhance their chances.

Everything being equal PGY1 vs. none, PGY1 is more attractive. But there's no equal in life. If you come to me and show me you're going to bust your ass and work hours no one is willing to...and volunteer to write presentations/protocol to teach nurses and go the extra mile and give me 150%, you're the man/woman for the job not the one with credentials.
 
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spacecowgirl said:
My salary has gone up 13% since 2008 and we have tripled our staff of FT pharmacists in that same period due to growth. Every market is different.
Click to expand...

Obviously it has because you live in an igloo so you must be up there in Alaska. I would have thought salaries would have grown faster up there than 13%, more proof that even in the boonies things are slowing down.

Pre-recession and pre-pharmacy school explosion, yearly increases averaged 4-5%pa. So if you compounded those increases over 5 years it would amount to 25-30%. 13% ain't much over 5 years but better than nothing s'pose.
 
Hello2000 said:
Obviously it has because you live in an igloo so you must be up there in Alaska. I would have thought salaries would have grown faster up there than 13%, more proof that even in the boonies things are slowing down.

Pre-recession and pre-pharmacy school explosion, yearly increases averaged 4-5%pa. So if you compounded those increases over 5 years it would amount to 25-30%. 13% ain't much over 5 years but better than nothing s'pose.
Click to expand...

You'd faint if I told you mine. I'll save you the smelling salts.
 
Z and lea and SCG all talk about these rarer than hen's teeth jobs that require nearly ten years of schooling to acquire, the three of them operate in their own little micro climate.

On a macro scale the story is so, so different for new grads. If everyone was to do PGY1 and 2, residency, work in a pharmacy during school, net work, back slap and generally brown nose anyone they could, would there be jobs for all of them too? I don't think so. Remember 50% end up in the bottom of the class, so no matter how hard you work there are always going to be some that are disappointed.

The fact that pharmacy schools are opening on every street corner and dropping entrance grades means quality will fall and they will provide graduates not up to post grad years and in turn grads not able to fill unicorn jobs. In effect Z, Lea and SCG are just adding fuel to the fire, good on them but all they are interested in are the elite jobs that are only available to very few. The dream being sold to the majority of students is rather different.
 
Its Z said:
And how much did your salary go up?
Click to expand...

Mine has actually fallen and I mean it. Got laid off and managed to get another in same town but at a much lower rate. I could have got a similar pay check if I had moved out to the boonies but I didn't want to watch my kids growing up on skype.
 
Aznfarmerboi said:
Z isn't saying anything here but posting information from a survey. For me, this survey only confirms that the situation is dire. In the course of 9 years, the job market for hospital pharmacists expanded by 15,000 jobs. Most of those jobs are already spoken for. On the other side of the equation, we had more students graduated than expanded... probably all in one year.
Click to expand...

His survey just proved how small hospital pharmacy really is. Thank you for pointing that out.
 
BMBiology said:
His survey just proved how small hospital pharmacy really is. Thank you for pointing that out.
Click to expand...

25% of pharmacy job market is small for you?

There will be 6,000+ residents and pharmacy students in Orlando next week with many who's done exceptional work who'll lead the profession in the future either you like it or not. So my audience is those kids. Like I said before... get on the train or get out of the way.

Where's your broken record sig I created for you.... you should wear it.
 
Hello2000 said:
The fact that pharmacy schools are opening on every street corner...
Click to expand...

You can thank the ACPE for that...


I think there is huge potential for the pharmacy profession right now. But the focus isn't going to be institutional, in my opinion - I think it has to be involvement in primary care driven patient centered medical homes. That's where the focus of healthcare seems to be right now. If pharmacists can find a way to integrate themselves into the changing landscape of primary care (MTM, chronic disease state management, etc.), we'll be in good shape for a long time to come. The key to that though, is working towards provider status that would allow pharmacists to bill for cognitive services so that we can be self-sustaining in these new models.

What we really need is a collective vision for the future of pharmacy - and it's clear that it can't just be dispensing (job saturation, tech-check-tech, mail order pharmacy, remote verification, etc., etc.).
 
Its Z said:
25% of pharmacy job market is small for you?

There will be 6,000+ residents and pharmacy students in Orlando next week with many who's done exceptional work who'll lead the profession in the future either you like it or not. So my audience is those kids. Like I said before... get on the train or get out of the way.

Where's your broken record sig I created for you.... you should wear it.
Click to expand...

Why do you mention Orlando, is it because it is a Mickey Mouse career?
 
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