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Lots of crooks, but their ability to manipulate prices, particularly on larger assets, is greatly exaggerated. People like to blame manipulation when they get run over in a momentum swing.
I’m not sure what happened to the post I was referring to but I agree wholeheartedly with you. I’m ok with the ups and downs even though it doesn’t make sense to me and just continue to play the game.

Honestly, I don’t know enough to make a claim either way which is why I just hold my nose and buy and hopefully in 20-30 years, I made the right decisions. I guess only time will tell. I’ve learned to drown out the noise on cnbc because they definitely do a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking.

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Corrupt yes for sure, total agreement, but I wouldn't put legit stock securities on the level of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is on the level of a worthless dot com company, no true value yet an extreme market capitalization based mostly on the greater sucker principle.

On the other hand owning Apple, Merck, PG, Boeing, XOM... you are an actual owner of real multi billion dollars companies. Now the prices may fly all around instead traveling in a neat constant straight line because the emotional traits of fear and greed are constant and always present, but the similarities with Bitcoin basically end there.

I really think a huge number of investors don't fully grasp this concept, that you are an actually owner, and therefore no matter how good or how bad the company is, the stock price can be greatly undervalued or greatly overvalued. The worst company out there can be a better value stock than the best companies in the world.

Bitcoin on the other hand, once you eliminate fear and greed and put all the trading psychology aside, you just aren't left with anything.
This line of thinking honestly can be used to argue why bitcoin has more validity than a transitional security lol
 
It's not true Bitcoin has no value. Blockchain technology allows me to send thousands of dollars around the world for a fraction of cents on the dollar. If you sent it with traditional banks, their fees will be hundred of orders of magnitude more expensive and slow. I just don't know what value it should have, but the technology has real, tangible benefits.
LOL

"a hundred orders of magnitude"

You just have no idea what these words mean, do you?

Wire transfer fees from conventional banks are a trivial cost. Cryptocurrency solves no problem because there isn't a problem in the first place. (Unless your transaction is illegal in the country of origin or destination.)
 
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LOL

"a hundred orders of magnitude"

You just have no idea what these words mean, do you?

Wire transfer fees from conventional banks are a trivial cost. Cryptocurrency solves no problem because there isn't a problem in the first place. (Unless your transaction is illegal in the country of origin or destination.)
*during normal banking hours excluding holidays
 
All I know is I’m up more from my crypto investments then my stocks right now. Maybe that will change in one day, two years, ten… but that’s all I know and care about.
 
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*during normal banking hours excluding holidays
So what?

What kind of large, important transaction needs to get done a 2 AM on a Tuesday or on Thanksgiving afternoon?

Aside from heroin deals, I mean. I understand Thanksgiving can be stressful for some people.

It blows my mind that you crypto guys actually think "midnight transactions" are a necessary or even useful feature for a banking system in which non-trivial sums are exchanged, that even begins to outweigh the absolute mountain of inbred ******ed **** that is the crypto world.

It's all bull**** rationalization for finding more greater fools.


It's been a while since we've talked about NFTs. How's that ****show working out these days?
 
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All I know is I’m up more from my crypto investments then my stocks right now. Maybe that will change in one day, two years, ten… but that’s all I know and care about.
Bitcoin is running for now. I'm not getting in front of that train regardless of the zero value I give it. You're right, it's only about did you sell higher than you bought lower? If you bought and sold Carvana on the way up and bought and sold Apple on the way down, not hard to figure out which was a better stock for you.
 
Bitcoin is running for now. I'm not getting in front of that train regardless of the zero value I give it. You're right, it's only about did you sell higher than you bought lower? If you bought and sold Carvana on the way up and bought and sold Apple on the way down, not hard to figure out which was a better stock for you.
I decided to hold off on buying more as well but I think 16k is my baseline for now for when I would buy again. Right now just picking up the stocks that got hit hard and seem to have a good value but the market has picked up quite a bit this month.
 
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So what?

What kind of large, important transaction needs to get done a 2 AM on a Tuesday or on Thanksgiving afternoon?

Aside from heroin deals, I mean. I understand Thanksgiving can be stressful for some people.

It blows my mind that you crypto guys actually think "midnight transactions" are a necessary or even useful feature for a banking system in which non-trivial sums are exchanged, that even begins to outweigh the absolute mountain of inbred ******ed **** that is the crypto world.

It's all bull**** rationalization for finding more greater fools.


It's been a while since we've talked about NFTs. How's that ****show working out these days?
There's a lot of garbage out there, agreed. But there may also be valuable technology is my point. Banking is very inefficient, and there's a reason why they rack up billions in profit quarter after quarter due to inefficiencies. Fidelity Says More Institutional Investors Are Holding Crypto institutional investors are buying as well and increasing their amounts even with the dip, it's not just dumb meme-stock "you crypto guys" buying. Isn't diversification valuable? What use is gold every day (other than specific electronic applications), yet it still holds monetary value. if you don't put more than 5% of your portfolio that you're willing to lose on crypto, it is interesting to learn about and could provide positive returns. You don't know the future, neither do I.
 
Crypto lending is an example of crypto trying to find a use case. 10% interest was too good to be true. It failed. I’ll admit I fell for it and lost some money on it.

I was suspicious about 4% interest with fdic insured banks.
 
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Crypto lending is an example of crypto trying to find a use case. 10% interest was too good to be true. It failed. I’ll admit I fell for it and lost some money on it.
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I’m scaling back in and will be Hodling till 2024-25 or BTC hits $150-200K, whichever comes first.


Jay Powell said today that the government debt ceiling needs to be raised, which means more credit (and cheap dollars) will be hitting the markets.

I think we’re close to the bottom of the crypto bear market
 
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I’m scaling back in and will be Hodling till 2024-25 or BTC hits $150-200K, whichever comes first.


Jay Powell said today that the government debt ceiling needs to be raised, which means more credit (and cheap dollars) will be hitting the markets.

I think we’re close to the bottom of the crypto bear market

This is just my crypto trading account. I’ve never sold my core holdings and won’t till 2027 the earliest. This is just mid term holds for fiat profits.
 
i have some (2000$ worth) in robinhood which is probably not a good idea. need actual cold wallet im guessing.
I’m with you but I like having it available to trade and not have to waste money on gas fees. I got a cold wallet for speculative stuff in the decentralized world. I personally don’t see the value but I invest like I do with everything else. Thus far crypto has been my best investment.
 
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i have some (2000$ worth) in robinhood which is probably not a good idea. need actual cold wallet im guessing.
This is an unpopular opinion, but I think RH is a great place to trade/speculate on crypto.

That being said, if you want to actually *own* that crypto, then a wallet is probably the better option.
 
The SEC cracked down on Kraken's staking program, but crypto prices are still going up.

ETH has been deflationary for a few months now.


Let's see if the Shanghai upgrade actually happens next month. I'll be relieved once my staked ETH becomes unlocked.
 
The funniest thing I find about Bitcoin is this cultish belief surrounding cycles. As if there's enough history in the 10 years of its existence to demarcate exactly what will happen every 4 years. The stock market has been around for how long and it's impossible to time, yet BTC will continue to march to the beat of the drum.
 
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The funniest thing I find about Bitcoin is this cultish belief surrounding cycles. As if there's enough history in the 10 years of its existence to demarcate exactly what will happen every 4 years. The stock market has been around for how long and it's impossible to time, yet BTC will continue to march to the beat of the drum.

M2 monetary expansion and a known deterministic emission schedule (halvening cycle) makes guessing more fun.
 
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The funniest thing I find about Bitcoin is this cultish belief surrounding cycles. As if there's enough history in the 10 years of its existence to demarcate exactly what will happen every 4 years. The stock market has been around for how long and it's impossible to time, yet BTC will continue to march to the beat of the drum.

As mentioned above, it has to do with the BTC halving which happens every 4 years.

 
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Except the M2 turned negative for the first time in 33 years this year and bitcoin has consistently showed behavior as a commodity rather than a currency where its price is concerned.

Yes. Money contraction from central banks and governments being responsible and reigning in money printing will result in bitcoin price going down in fiat terms. But global M2 is rising again and since BTC is a digital based money traded 24/7 it’s rising again. I don’t think we’re going straight up from here, but if the contraction of M2 resulted in $15,000 BTC, what happens when the contraction is done?

Bitcoin is a check on money printing. It’s the best free market we have currently for a number of reasons. I’ve had a theory for money years about this and it hasn’t failed. Look at the last time money contraction was attempted in late 2018 and check the BTC price (and S&P). Once more people wrap their head around the 24/7 global market that bitcoin (and to a smaller effect some of the other digital assets), it’ll make a lot more sense.
 
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It’s unfortunate that a coordinated bank run by politicians and the federal reserve on silver gate bank is now spilling over to other banks. Hopefully it doesn’t turn into a contagion.

FTX scam and collapse a few months ago has similarities to what we’re seeing
 
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It’s unfortunate that a coordinated bank run by politicians and the federal reserve on silver gate bank is now spilling over to other banks. Hopefully it doesn’t turn into a contagion.

FTX scam and collapse a few months ago has similarities to what we’re seeing
A completely rational bank run that occurred as a result of gross incompetence and possibly corruption by the leadership of institution. There are reports that executives of the startup companies that brought their corporate accounts there obtained very favorable (below market rate) mortgages for their personal residences....
 
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A completely rational bank run that occurred as a result of gross incompetence and possibly corruption by the leadership of institution. There are reports that executives of the startup companies that brought their corporate accounts there obtained very favorable (below market rate) mortgages for their personal residences....

You think SVB is the only bank with massive holes in their balance sheets?

The SVB collapse was set in motion many months ago by some politicians that hate bitcoin and crypto (and the bank that serviced the industry silvergate) and facilitated with the help of the 2nd lender of last resort.

SilverGate bank was a small player, but the concerns moved up the food chain and spread to SVB. Now there’s talk of 1st Republic Bank having mass redemptions.

I’m not apologizing for poor risk management of these banks, but overzealous actions sometimes have unintended consequences and we may be seeing that in real time.
 
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It’s unfortunate that a coordinated bank run by politicians and the federal reserve on silver gate bank is now spilling over to other banks. Hopefully it doesn’t turn into a contagion.

FTX scam and collapse a few months ago has similarities to what we’re seeing
LOL

This is just crypto working as intended. It's ALL a scheme and a scam. A wealth extraction game, pump & dump scheme. So-called "stablecoin" frauds have been just another part of the scam so that whales could mint more fiat 1s and 0s and play shell games to prop up bitcoin's price.

The alleged benefits, alternative to gold, etc, all nonsense. It's useless as a currency to buy things, and worse than useless as a store of wealth. In just the last 24h bitcoin's price has swung about 20%. It's ridiculous.

We're what, a couple years (?) past the excitement of El Salvador adopting bitcoin as a legal currency, sort of? The early adopter that was going to set the trend for an avalanche of other countries accepting it as legal tender? Any other countries following suit? No? Of course not. El Salvador's president was just pulling a stunt.

And now we're seeing banks that cater to the crypto world fail, because the volatility and half-assed accounting. Signature, Silvergate, FTX. Others are closing or reducing exposure. Everything from little guys lke Zipmex & Bitfront to giants like Coinbase are paring back or closing operations in some countries.

It's not a "coordinated run" or some sort of conspiracy. :) Unless you think financial system regulators taking action against absurd irresponsibility and fraud adjacent to legitimate markets is a "conspiracy" as opposed to "finally doing their goddamn jobs" ... it's just crypto's true nature being exposed, the layers of bull**** getting peeled away.


Again, I hope you crypto believers make money on it, because I like to see the little guys do well. But is there a point at which you'll admit it's just a zero-sum game (actually negative sum when the energy wastage is taken into account) and that you're just hoping to be a little bit better at buy-low-sell-high than the other players of the game?
 
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Weren't you guys just talking about Bitcoin going to $100K a few months ago? :)

But good luck to you, I hope you profit massively
The $100k talk was actually fall 2021 at the peak of the last bull cycle, so almost a year and a half ago…

And yes it fell considerably short of that mark and *only* reached ~$69k.

But we’re approximately 1 year away from the next halving cycle, which is typically followed by ~18 months of (mostly) bullish activity. From September 2024 to September 2025 we should see several new all time highs (>$69k)
 
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LOL

This is just crypto working as intended. It's ALL a scheme and a scam. A wealth extraction game, pump & dump scheme. So-called "stablecoin" frauds have been just another part of the scam so that whales could mint more fiat 1s and 0s and play shell games to prop up bitcoin's price.

The alleged benefits, alternative to gold, etc, all nonsense. It's useless as a currency to buy things, and worse than useless as a store of wealth. In just the last 24h bitcoin's price has swung about 20%. It's ridiculous.

We're what, a couple years (?) past the excitement of El Salvador adopting bitcoin as a legal currency, sort of? The early adopter that was going to set the trend for an avalanche of other countries accepting it as legal tender? Any other countries following suit? No? Of course not. El Salvador's president was just pulling a stunt.

And now we're seeing banks that cater to the crypto world fail, because the volatility and half-assed accounting. Signature, Silvergate, FTX. Others are closing or reducing exposure. Everything from little guys lke Zipmex & Bitfront to giants like Coinbase are paring back or closing operations in some countries.

It's not a "coordinated run" or some sort of conspiracy. :) Unless you think financial system regulators taking action against absurd irresponsibility and fraud adjacent to legitimate markets is a "conspiracy" as opposed to "finally doing their goddamn jobs" ... it's just crypto's true nature being exposed, the layers of bull**** getting peeled away.


Again, I hope you crypto believers make money on it, because I like to see the little guys do well. But is there a point at which you'll admit it's just a zero-sum game (actually negative sum when the energy wastage is taken into account) and that you're just hoping to be a little bit better at buy-low-sell-high than the other players of the game?

I’m in no way defending 99.99% of crypto projects that are legit scams and PND schemes, but I’m not seeing how the SVB collapse or even the FTX fiasco is “crypto’s true nature being exposed.”

I think you’re conflating two or three separate issues: SVB’s collapse was due to overleveraging bonds without having the proper risk management in the context of faster-than-anticipated rate hikes (i.e., they gambled and lost). This is not related to crypto per se. FTX’s collapse was mostly due to the illegal funneling of customer deposits to provide collateral and prop up their deep-in-the-red trading firm which eventually fell apart as they too experienced a bank run due to massive overleveraging. Again, not related to the underlying asset per se but moreso about gross mismanagement, negligence, and outright fraud.

Again, I agree that the overwhelming majority (99.99%) of crypto projects are scams, PNDs, etc., but I don’t think that these events happened “because of crypto.” I’ve said this before, but I don’t think any of this invalidates the field as a whole. Its role in the grand scheme of things is yet to be determined. Place your bets accordingly.
 
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BTC and ETH breaking out 👍
 
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Interesting how the alts haven't followed BTC or ETH yet.
 
Interesting how the alts haven't followed BTC or ETH yet.
I don't follow crypto and most likely never will, but my gut says this makes perfect sense. There's an infinite number of potential alts, they grow by the day, making their value negligible, while the "industry" leaders appear to be BTC and ETH, so if I was a crypto buyer I'd want the best ones that potentially have some sort of unique appeal and value to them.
 
Interesting how the alts haven't followed BTC or ETH yet.
Evergrown coin is only down 99.8% from it's ATH when it was being shilled here as the road to early retirement if you put your entire attending salary in to it though. So if you had invested 100k at that time you would have $200 now. Still early.....
 
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Evergrown coin is only down 99.8% from it's ATH when it was being shilled here as the road to early retirement if you put your entire attending salary in to it though. So if you had invested 100k at that time you would have $200 now. Still early.....
NFTs to the moon!

Something something in-video-game purchases
 
With BTC back at 30K, if one would have bought regularly from the previous high of 68K (11/2021) till now, your purchasing power would have increased as you would be up priced in USD.

Once currency debasement continues (and more citizens come to understand the central banking system) by the central bank, I think we’ll see increased adoption and hodling reflected by price.

PS it’s gonna get more difficult to purchase and privately own BTC in the not too distant future.
 
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With BTC back at 30K, if one would have bought regularly from the previous high of 68K (11/2021) till now, your purchasing power would have increased as you would be up priced in USD.

Once currency debasement continues (and more citizens come to understand the central banking system) by the central bank, I think we’ll see increased adoption and hodling reflected by price.

PS it’s gonna get more difficult to purchase and privately own BTC in the not too distant future.
I traded in and out, made money but man compared to everything else, Bitcoin def holding its own.
 
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With BTC back at 30K, if one would have bought regularly from the previous high of 68K (11/2021) till now, your purchasing power would have increased as you would be up priced in USD.

Once currency debasement continues (and more citizens come to understand the central banking system) by the central bank, I think we’ll see increased adoption and hodling reflected by price.

PS it’s gonna get more difficult to purchase and privately own BTC in the not too distant future.

BTC is here to stay despite the naysayers. I think the US dollar has more to worry about (losing its status as a world reserve currency thanks to the BRICS nations) than BTC. US gov't is one of the largest BTC holders there is owning about 1%of the total supply. I appreciate your informative posts.
 
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BTC is here to stay despite the naysayers. I think the US dollar has more to worry about (losing its status as a world reserve currency thanks to the BRICS nations) than BTC. US gov't is one of the largest BTC holders there is owning about 1%of the total supply. I appreciate your informative posts.

Thanks. I’m self taught on the Economy, Markets and geopolitics. I’m also a student of history and have read a lot on those subjects and I like to document my thoughts and thesis.

As we go through this 4th Turning, enter a digital age, wars (information, financial, culture, etc), disruption of a world reserve currency and how a new technology disrupts the broken, irresponsible financial system and the response as the to the disruptors (BRICS, BTC etc).

I believe we’re at a time in history seen every 100 years and history may not repeat, but it sure seems it rhymes.

PS: It’s obvious the central bank (called the Federal Reserve. Not federal and they have no reserves!) has either lost control of the economy or worse is directing it in a precarious position.
 
Thanks. I’m self taught on the Economy, Markets and geopolitics. I’m also a student of history and have read a lot on those subjects and I like to document my thoughts and thesis.

As we go through this 4th Turning, enter a digital age, wars (information, financial, culture, etc), disruption of a world reserve currency and how a new technology disrupts the broken, irresponsible financial system and the response as the to the disruptors (BRICS, BTC etc).

I believe we’re at a time in history seen every 100 years and history may not repeat, but it sure seems it rhymes.

PS: It’s obvious the central bank (called the Federal Reserve. Not federal and they have no reserves!) has either lost control of the economy or worse is directing it in a precarious position.

Do you expect a new ATH in 2025 ? If so, under or over 100k?
 
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