Be ahead of the curve

Panacea Financial Contract Review
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finalpsychyear said:
0.61x gain meant from the previous ATH. so 1.61x the previous ATH which gives a max of 110k this bull cycle.
Click to expand...
Thanks for clarifying - that’s much more reasonable. At 110k I’ll be 250k in profit. Not bad at all!
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finalpsychyear said:
0.61x gain meant from the previous ATH. so 1.61x the previous ATH which gives a max of 110k this bull cycle.
Click to expand...

I guess it's good that the thread has morphed to a discussion about the timing of the pump dump cycles, and how to extract money from the hype and the next wave of dumb money (ETF) entries to the game, with less of the "currency of the future" and "store of value" kind of nonsense. That's progress, I guess.

But only two significant digits in your gain predictions? Maybe you need to draw more lines on charts! 🙂
 
pgg said:
I guess it's good that the thread has morphed to a discussion about the timing of the pump dump cycles, and how to extract money from the hype and the next wave of dumb money (ETF) entries to the game, with less of the "currency of the future" and "store of value" kind of nonsense. That's progress, I guess.

But only two significant digits in your gain predictions? Maybe you need to draw more lines on charts! 🙂
Click to expand...

I am dumb money. When I buy, it's time to sell.
 
pgg said:
I guess it's good that the thread has morphed to a discussion about the timing of the pump dump cycles, and how to extract money from the hype and the next wave of dumb money (ETF) entries to the game, with less of the "currency of the future" and "store of value" kind of nonsense. That's progress, I guess.

But only two significant digits in your gain predictions? Maybe you need to draw more lines on charts! 🙂
Click to expand...

I like to set low expectations. Glad to see the idea of it advancing. In my mind there is no question that it is here to stay and the whole blackrock getting behind it basically cemented it even faster. People laughed at when credit cards rolled out, questioned who needs a smartphone when you have a flip phone/landline, wondered if streaming would really work, laughed at electric cars being for anyone other than the wealthy pre covid....
should be an intersting next 12-18 months.
 
finalpsychyear said:
I like to set low expectations. Glad to see the idea of it advancing. In my mind there is no question that it is here to stay and the whole blackrock getting behind it basically cemented it even faster. People laughed at when credit cards rolled out, questioned who needs a smartphone when you have a flip phone/landline, wondered if streaming would really work, laughed at electric cars being for anyone other than the wealthy pre covid....
should be an intersting next 12-18 months.
Click to expand...

I still don't know what crypto is for.

What do you mean people questioned smartphones? Don't you remember the lines for the iPhone?

 
Last edited:
finalpsychyear said:
I like to set low expectations. Glad to see the idea of it advancing. In my mind there is no question that it is here to stay and the whole blackrock getting behind it basically cemented it even faster. People laughed at when credit cards rolled out, questioned who needs a smartphone when you have a flip phone/landline, wondered if streaming would really work, laughed at electric cars being for anyone other than the wealthy pre covid....
should be an intersting next 12-18 months.
Click to expand...
time.com

History of credit cards: When were they invented?

The history of credit dates back thousands of years, but the modern version of the credit card is less than 100 years old.
time.com time.com

Idk it seems like everyone wanted credit cards (so much that amex pre-launch was sold out) and there was fairly rapid mass adoption and obvious utility--two features which crypto is lacking.

The magic of electric cars has worn off too as can be seen by slumping sales.
 
Cryptocurrency was invented in 2008. If we are still "so early" in year 15, then when would be considered late? When we're dead?
 
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pgg said:
It'll be too late when there isn't enough new money to dump another pump upon.
Click to expand...

The US treasury announced they will need to borrow 1.5 trillion dollars over the next 2 quarters. There’s gonna be a whole lot of new money to pump the price. The further money debasement will cause the BTC to go up even more. It’s math
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
The US treasury announced they will need to borrow 1.5 trillion dollars over the next 2 quarters. There’s gonna be a whole lot of new money to pump the price. The further money debasement will cause the BTC to go up even more. It’s math
Click to expand...
Or maybe gold will blow up

Or maybe stock prices will inflate

Or maybe there'll be an economic collapse when the government can't pay for public services at current levels any more

Or maybe we'll invade Africa and seize an entire continent of natural resources because some scary people brew some ebola and they were coming right for us!

As usual, your entire argument is diversion and criticism of our ridiculous government's ridiculous unsustainable spending. But it doesn't follow that bitcoin or any other crypto is the safe harbor. Your faith that cryptocurrency is THE natural replacement for fiat government currency is just hope. And not very well supported hope.

It's demonstrably worthless as a currency, and it's too volatile to be a store of value. In fact, it's volatility is its only redeeming quality (to its advocates), because there can't be any pump and dump without volatility.

Again, I hope that in the end you're personally in the ranks of smart money taking profits from dumb money, but THAT'S ALL THERE IS. It's just a game of people hoping to take money from other people. It doesn't create value. It doesn't build wealth. It has no utility. It solves no problems.

It is objectively damaging (energy waste and pollution), and its primary practical use outside of speculative investing is criminal activity.

Probably there'll be another rush of dumb money into the scheme when the ETFs get off the ground, but what's after that? Who'll pay for the pump after that? Someone's got to keep pouring money into it for someone else to get money out of it.
 
pgg said:
Or maybe gold will blow up

Or maybe stock prices will inflate

Or maybe there'll be an economic collapse when the government can't pay for public services at current levels any more

Or maybe we'll invade Africa and seize an entire continent of natural resources because some scary people brew some ebola and they were coming right for us!

As usual, your entire argument is diversion and criticism of our ridiculous government's ridiculous unsustainable spending. But it doesn't follow that bitcoin or any other crypto is the safe harbor. Your faith that cryptocurrency is THE natural replacement for fiat government currency is just hope. And not very well supported hope.

It's demonstrably worthless as a currency, and it's too volatile to be a store of value. In fact, it's volatility is its only redeeming quality (to its advocates), because there can't be any pump and dump without volatility.

Again, I hope that in the end you're personally in the ranks of smart money taking profits from dumb money, but THAT'S ALL THERE IS. It's just a game of people hoping to take money from other people. It doesn't create value. It doesn't build wealth. It has no utility. It solves no problems.

It is objectively damaging (energy waste and pollution), and its primary practical use outside of speculative investing is criminal activity.

Probably there'll be another rush of dumb money into the scheme when the ETFs get off the ground, but what's after that? Who'll pay for the pump after that? Someone's got to keep pouring money into it for someone else to get money out of it.
Click to expand...
Well obviously the US government will trade 1.5 trillion dollars for some bitcoins then use those to pay for missiles and medicare and stuff. It's math.

After that it'll be aliens or something haven't quite mathed it out that far. But by then it won't be early anymore.
 
BTC is about 50% from it's ATH. Why is ETH lagging its ATH behind so much? I thought the merge and Shanghai upgrade were supposed to reduce gas fees, make it deflationary and pump it?
 
sevo00 said:
Chicken soup for the $SOL 😉
Click to expand...

Speaking of SOL, are FTX fears over? Is this the next ETH or is this month's pump just hype?

I don't know what any of this Firedancer stuff means.

cryptonews.net

What is Firedancer and Its Importance for Solana's Future

Introduction Firedancer represents a fresh validator client designed for the Solana blockchain. At present, the entire Solana network relies on the original validator client, developed
cryptonews.net cryptonews.net
 
mentos said:
Speaking of SOL, are FTX fears over? Is this the next ETH or is this month's pump just hype?

I don't know what any of this Firedancer stuff means.

cryptonews.net

What is Firedancer and Its Importance for Solana's Future

Introduction Firedancer represents a fresh validator client designed for the Solana blockchain. At present, the entire Solana network relies on the original validator client, developed
cryptonews.net cryptonews.net
Click to expand...
SOL is the current flavor of the month. It’s being shilled by the crypto YouTubers.

Even after pumping 100% in the past 2 weeks, it’s *still* down 80% from its 2021 high. Conversely, bitcoin is only down about 50% from its all time high.

Translation: there are A LOT of SOL bag holders out there that want/need the price to go up.

Personally, I’m not a fan of SOL. Crypto is already a “risk asset” and bitcoin and ethereum are good enough for me - I don’t move any further out the risk curve than that.
 
pgg said:
Or maybe gold will blow up

Or maybe stock prices will inflate

Or maybe there'll be an economic collapse when the government can't pay for public services at current levels any more
Click to expand...
Yes Sir,
been saying for a while now, the future of asset prices is 99.999% dependent on the Fed as it is 99.999% certain actual default, and all asset prices crash as well, or monetizing default, and all asset prices inflate, are where we are heading.

Tough talk Fed, markets drop.
Soft talk we'll print our way out Fed, markets rise.
All we have folks is one giant inflated ponzi scheme set of markets dependent now on even more propping up.
 
Z-Qualizer said:
SOL is the current flavor of the month. It’s being shilled by the crypto YouTubers.

Even after pumping 100% in the past 2 weeks, it’s *still* down 80% from its 2021 high. Conversely, bitcoin is only down about 50% from its all time high.

Translation: there are A LOT of SOL bag holders out there that want/need the price to go up.

Personally, I’m not a fan of SOL. Crypto is already a “risk asset” and bitcoin and ethereum are good enough for me - I don’t move any further out the risk curve than that.
Click to expand...

Well every alt except ETH is down like 80% from the high. I think that's pretty standard? They don't follow BTC until alt season during a bull market, so maybe in 2025 they pump again.
 
mentos said:
Well every alt except ETH is down like 80% from the high. I think that's pretty standard? They don't follow BTC until alt season during a bull market, so maybe in 2025 they pump again.
Click to expand...
Yes, many alts will pump, but many won’t. Many will underwhelm, and many will fail. The trouble is trying to pick the winners. It’s a lot like picking individual stocks (very difficult).

If you want to see something interesting, compare the top 10 cryptos of 2017 to 2021 - there are a lot of new faces in the latter list. I’m sure the turnover from 2021 to 2025 will be similar… why take on that much additional risk?
 
IMG_0320.png
 
Not selling anytime soon… but it’s nice to see all this green. At one point today I was ~$22k in profit.
 
Z-Qualizer said:
Not selling anytime soon… but it’s nice to see all this green. At one point today I was ~$22k in profit.
Click to expand...

What's your exit plan? Will you hold forever?

I'm down 35% now. If I get to even then I'll probably sell and try to buy lower next time.
 
mentos said:
What's your exit plan? Will you hold forever?

I'm down 35% now. If I get to even then I'll probably sell and try to buy lower next time.
Click to expand...
Won’t hold forever… I’d like to cash in my chips sometime between 2024-2025. Have to wait and see how this next bull cycle goes.
 
Which exchange are you guys using to buy and sell? I used Binance before but they don't allow fiat anymore.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
I use kraken exchange and also a couple of decentralized exchanges
Click to expand...

I had the majority of my crypto staked on Kraken, but moved it to a wallet when they banned staking. I hope it's not an issue to move coins to Kraken to cash out, then transfer the money out to a bank.
 
If blackrock and all these various entities are going to get approved I wouldn't be surprised that we get near 6 fig by the next peak. However, if those entities can get it up to near 6 figs they sure as heck can sell/short or whatever manipulation to bring the price back to 20-30k range. So the question is yes maybe we get near 6 fig this bull cycle but then what are we back to this level after the 2025 peak or is there some reason it has to stay above the 2021 ATH after this 2024-2025 cycle runs its course?
 
Historically the nadir of Bitcoin bear markets is around the previous high mark. So my guess would be around the previous high within 15-25%. But the history doesn’t predict the future. It will do what it does.
 
mentos said:
That's excellent but the magnificent 7 are up even more and closer to ATH than BTC.
Click to expand...
Have we really reached the point of comparing bitcoin to the “magnificent 7” stocks?? If so, I’d say BTC is in a great place 😁

Also, critics of risk assets such as bitcoin usually argue that you’re better off investing in something “safer” like index funds… not many recommend picking individual stocks as the alternative.

By the way, if you know an individual stock that’s going to return >100% over the next 11 months, please let me know!!
 
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