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sevo00 said:
And then you’ll wish you didn’t sell it when eth hits 10k and sol hits 1k.
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im glad this is starting to feel like a normal cycle with large draw downs. The longer the cycle goes hopefully into middle to end of 2025 the more likely we have of getting to a 100k.

I think we chop between high 50-70k for the rest of the year and maybe some run of 70-90k somewhere in the q4 quarter.
I've gone back to feeling this cycle will confirm diminishing gains and will be somewhere in the 100-120 area as the blow off top which would be like a 50% gain from previous ATH a number i would be thrilled with.
 
There is nothing different this time. That was our first major drawdown you are correct. We are in the “disbelief” stage in the market cycle.

You can try to time local tops and bottoms but then you run the risk of missing out on the parabolic moves
 
finalpsychyear said:
im glad this is starting to feel like a normal cycle with large draw downs. The longer the cycle goes hopefully into middle to end of 2025 the more likely we have of getting to a 100k.

I think we chop between high 50-70k for the rest of the year and maybe some run of 70-90k somewhere in the q4 quarter.
I've gone back to feeling this cycle will confirm diminishing gains and will be somewhere in the 100-120 area as the blow off top which would be like a 50% gain from previous ATH a number i would be thrilled with.
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After seeing how many people sold at 70k, I think there is going to be a BIG sell-off/draw down after we hit 100k.
 
triggermaster said:
The supply of greater fools will run out at 100k?
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To clarify: I don’t think 100k is “the end” - far from it actually. I still think price will eventually go much higher… but I also think that A LOT of people will take profits the first time price breaks 100k.

So what’s your prediction? 100k, then straight to zero??
 
sevo00 said:
Not sure I get your point. Technical analysis uses actual mathematical data. What do horoscopes use not sure.
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The point is that technical analysis is bull**** devoid of fundamental value, except possibly for the narrow niche of HFT, which isn't something ordinary people do. Then again, crypto is bull**** devoid of fundamental value too, so maybe it has some utility in that arena.
 
pgg said:
The point is that technical analysis is bull**** devoid of fundamental value, except possibly for the narrow niche of HFT, which isn't something ordinary people do. Then again, crypto is bull**** devoid of fundamental value too, so maybe it has some utility in that arena.
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Ok. Not sure why you’re so angry and emotional
 
sevo00 said:
Ok. Not sure why you’re so angry and emotional
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Angry? LOL

Amused and bemused.

The most amazing thing about the last 15-ish years of bull markets and everybody making money no matter what they did, is that people have come to believe they've made money because they're smart or because their pet system has intrinsic merit. It's just interesting to see that hubris slide right into the crypto world.

I hope your ziggy lines lead you to profits.
 
pgg said:
Angry? LOL

Amused and bemused.

The most amazing thing about the last 15-ish years of bull markets and everybody making money no matter what they did, is that people have come to believe they've made money because they're smart or because their pet system has intrinsic merit. It's just interesting to see that hubris slide right into the crypto world.

I hope your ziggy lines lead you to profits.
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Got it
 
pgg said:
Angry? LOL

Amused and bemused.

The most amazing thing about the last 15-ish years of bull markets and everybody making money no matter what they did, is that people have come to believe they've made money because they're smart or because their pet system has intrinsic merit. It's just interesting to see that hubris slide right into the crypto world.

I hope your ziggy lines lead you to profits.
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Yeah Right Judging You GIF
 
Is there any data on how fast and how widely Bitcoin is being adopted as a medium of exchange in non-shady transactions?
 
  • Haha
Reactions: pgg
Dr. Rude said:
Is there any data on how fast and how widely Bitcoin is being adopted as a medium of exchange in non-shady transactions?
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In the western world very slow. It’s moreso a monetary debasement store of value. There are 2nd layer technology to do infinite number transactions per second but there’s no incentive to change over. But as the Fed continue the relentless monetary debasement it’s been quite the hedge.

In emerging markets it’s stablecoins (tether) that are coveted. There are some niche areas (El Salvador, parts of Switzerland) but overall low.

Overall adoption for use has been underwhelming at this point. But Store of Value is undeniable at this point. Retail, pensions, and sovereign wealth funds are adopting it.

IMO it’ll take a financial or political calamity that would spur further adoption for use in the western world. We could see the incumbents adopt the technology by accumulating coins and and use the underlying network without the normies even know they’re using the technology for transactions, or proof ownership or whatever technology keeps evolving.

I’m still mega bullish for a number of reasons, but that’s my take presently as we’re in the middle of bull run.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
But Store of Value is undeniable at this point.
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Hardly undeniable - it's so volatile, even during these times of general economic stability, that you've got to admit it's more of a speculative asset than a "store of value" ....


And we'll see, when the next economic crash comes along, if/how it stores its value.


It's possible that there will be an abrupt sell-off of bitcoin as holders abruptly sell in order to cover margin calls, free up cash, pay bills after job loss / business downturns, or even to buy other assets at firesale prices.


I mean, rather than speculate, we could look at how well it actually functioned as a "store of value" during a recent economic and financial crisis. Spoiler: it didn't.

January to February of 2020 the price of Bitcoin was bouncing around $8500-9500. Then mid March 2020, as the catastrophic economic impact of COVID was becoming apparent, and the stock market briefly tanked, what happened to Bitcoin? It tanked right along with those fiat-dollar-denominated stocks.

Bitcoin lost about 40% of its value, plummeting to a nadir around $5000, and it wasn't until June or so that it recovered.

Now, maybe that's an acceptable outcome if you don't need or want the funds during the crisis. But contrast that behavior with what happened with gold - it dropped about 10% for a week, before recovering.


I'd call just one of those things a store of value that's useful during a crisis.
 
pgg said:
Hardly undeniable - it's so volatile, even during these times of general economic stability, that you've got to admit it's more of a speculative asset than a "store of value" ....


And we'll see, when the next economic crash comes along, if/how it stores its value.


It's possible that there will be an abrupt sell-off of bitcoin as holders abruptly sell in order to cover margin calls, free up cash, pay bills after job loss / business downturns, or even to buy other assets at firesale prices.


I mean, rather than speculate, we could look at how well it actually functioned as a "store of value" during a recent economic and financial crisis. Spoiler: it didn't.

January to February of 2020 the price of Bitcoin was bouncing around $8500-9500. Then mid March 2020, as the catastrophic economic impact of COVID was becoming apparent, and the stock market briefly tanked, what happened to Bitcoin? It tanked right along with those fiat-dollar-denominated stocks.

Bitcoin lost about 40% of its value, plummeting to a nadir around $5000, and it wasn't until June or so that it recovered.

Now, maybe that's an acceptable outcome if you don't need or want the funds during the crisis. But contrast that behavior with what happened with gold - it dropped about 10% for a week, before recovering.


I'd call just one of those things a store of value that's useful during a crisis.
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Number go up
 
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#...Wisconsin&startdt=2024-05-14&enddt=2024-05-14


The State of Wisconsin Pension board is the second largest holder of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF. Although a small allocation ($100 million out of $35 Billion), it’s significant because due diligence was done and we will see more public funds allocating in the future. I guess all Wisconsin public employees are Bitcoiners now.
 
Is everyone selling their crypto to buy AMC/GME?
 
mentos said:
Is everyone selling their crypto to buy AMC/GME?
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A Hedge Fund (or 2) might be blowing up by naked shorting. Every time price goes up, they have to buy a $GME stock on the open market to cover that short (a bet price will drop) or they will get a margin call and will be liquidated. It’ll take help from the Gov (like halting trading or a good ole bailout) from preventing the fund from blowing up. If I recall correctly, Naked shorting is illegal but what’s to stop a large fund from doing this when they figure they have the backing of the gov if SHTF.

This is sorta what happened a few years back with a fund and this same stock.
 
Direct Laryngoscopy said:
A Hedge Fund (or 2) might be blowing up by naked shorting. Every time price goes up, they have to buy a $GME stock on the open market to cover that short (a bet price will drop) or they will get a margin call and will be liquidated. It’ll take help from the Gov (like halting trading or a good ole bailout) from preventing the fund from blowing up. If I recall correctly, Naked shorting is illegal but what’s to stop a large fund from doing this when they figure they have the backing of the gov if SHTF.

This is sorta what happened a few years back with a fund and this same stock.
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It's funny how history repeats itself
 
mentos said:
Is everyone selling their crypto to buy AMC/GME?
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I'm holding on to both. Enough that if a miracle happens, I'd be able to work part time forever, but not enough that it's breaking the bank for me right now. I actually sold a couple hundred gme shares at $60 that finally got in the green from when I initially bought in like 3 years ago. Feels good to see that red go away.
 
MirrorTodd said:
I'm holding on to both. Enough that if a miracle happens, I'd be able to work part time forever, but not enough that it's breaking the bank for me right now. I actually sold a couple hundred gme shares at $60 that finally got in the green from when I initially bought in like 3 years ago. Feels good to see that red go away.
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Congrats! Diamond hands.
 
I'm thinking of selling ETH if it hits 4k again. Too conservative?
 
mentos said:
I'm thinking of selling ETH if it hits 4k again. Too conservative?
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I understand not wanting to wait for >10k, but personally I would at least wait until it hits a new ATH to sell - I can’t believe that wouldn’t happen this cycle.
 
MirrorTodd said:
I will likely sell at 10k. No specific reasons, I just want the money and that will be enough to finally pay off my school loans and car. Unless, that doesn't happen before I get out of the Army and start making real money.
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I hope it gets there but it's been so weak lately compared to BTC.
 
The same political actors that had a “crypto army” to implicitly ban crypto in the US (and took out a few regional banks possibly), are failing terribly. Now their political party realizes crypto is bigger than they could have thought. So that political party is making a U-turn and abandoning (for now) squashing crypto in this country. It’s hilarious to see unfold in real time.

Once Trump campaigned that he would not try to stop crypto from evolving in this country, the Biden administration has been scrambling. The administration stated that it would immediately veto Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 if overturned by the house and senate (it was supported by democrats). Now they are rethinking that.

Bitcoin will be a hot topic as price increases. These politicians want to be re-elected so I anticipate a lot of the loud anti BTC rhetoric will simmer as we get closer to November.
 
finalpsychyear said:
Price back to high 60s by end of month. This is the least volatile this asset has ever been. This is healthy correction.
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I was a few weeks off but pretty much like clockwork. With rate cuts coming this year I think a cycle top of 100k may be too sandbagged now with trump pro bitcoin and making it a political advantage.

I think 100k btc in 2024 has more chances by the holiday seasons.

That being said I'll still be happy with a cycle top of 100.
 
Last edited:
This is apparently the greenest daily ETH candle since 2017
 
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