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Intubate said:
You did a good thing starting this thread back when you did. People ignored you and laughed. They're all salty and continue to post confidently incorrect opinions, that make them look ridiculous. They're beyond help at this point.
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Lol was going to say same thing. It’s all a cycle with btc and eth. BTC will eventually take over the market cap of gold., it’s inevitable.
 
sevo00 said:
Lol was going to say same thing. It’s all a cycle with btc and eth. BTC will eventually take over the market cap of gold., it’s inevitable.
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One More Time Film GIF
 
Intubate said:
You did a good thing starting this thread back when you did. People ignored you and laughed. They're all salty and continue to post confidently incorrect opinions, that make them look ridiculous. They're beyond help at this point.
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the only thing worth laughing at is the people with uber confidence of the long term value of a particular coin. It's unknowable IMHO, and not in the sense that I don't personally know what it will be, but in the sense that there is no human on earth that can pretend to have an even educated guess 10+ years out. I do like the technology, though, and some potential usefulness in the future and follow developments in the area.
 
Mman said:
the only thing worth laughing at is the people with uber confidence of the long term value of a particular coin. It's unknowable IMHO, and not in the sense that I don't personally know what it will be, but in the sense that there is no human on earth that can pretend to have an even educated guess 10+ years out. I do like the technology, though, and some potential usefulness in the future and follow developments in the area.
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I can't even tell what's going to happen tomorrow
 
GassYous said:
I can't even tell what's going to happen tomorrow
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I know what's going to happen tomorrow. I am going to be called in to the office of the Anesthesia department blah blah blah and be lectured about respect and knowing who people are etc etc all because I didn't know who they were on the phone when they called. I will of course nod my head, apologize and agree with everything they say because while I dont actually care who they are or about whatever slight they felt I expressed, I do care about my job and not getting hassled at work.
This has nothing to do with crypto except from the fact that maybe I'll be rich off crypto someday.
 
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MirrorTodd said:
I know what's going to happen tomorrow. I am going to be called in to the office of the Anesthesia department blah blah blah and be lectured about respect and knowing who people are etc etc all because I didn't know who they were on the phone when they called. I will of course nod my head, apologize and agree with everything they say because while I dont actually care who they are or about whatever slight they felt I expressed, I do care about my job and not getting hassled at work.
This has nothing to do with crypto except from the fact that maybe I'll be rich of crypto someday.
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I like my job. I like the people, the cases, and the pay, but not more than I like waking up to my wife in the morning with nowhere to be and nowhere to go. I have enough hobbies planned and as soon as I hit that number, I will never see another call room ever again. Could be a few years, could be thirty years. We’ll see.
 
anaesthetic said:
I like my job. I like the people, the cases, and the pay, but not more than I like waking up to my wife in the morning with nowhere to be and nowhere to go. I have enough hobbies planned and as soon as I hit that number, I will never see another call room ever again. Could be a few years, could be thirty years. We’ll see.
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The person that you are at thirty something is not the person that you will be at fifty something. Same goes for your wife. Just sayin.
 
dr doze said:
The person that you are at thirty something is not the person that you will be at fifty something. Same goes for your wife. Just sayin.
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There’s an article I read that mentions an observation on a group of people who were asked what would be some advice they had for themselves 10 yrs ago in which over 90% discussed all the mistakes they made.

Of course at the present time, we can only assume we know what is best but what was interesting is how our philosophy changes significantly over time and we end up becoming completely different people then we would have assumed we would be. I know I probably screwed up the interpretation of the article.
 
nimbus said:
Last minute cancellations? If not, it would have been nice if the charge nurse called you.
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I think COVID, and the other was trach and peg. Family finally realized it won’t help grandpa.
I still had to show up, board runner found me something to do….. 🤣
 
At least some of the recent volatility (both up and down) in cryptocurrencies is due to excess liquidity or lack thereof. Not its future prospects.
Still watching the space. No position or opinion on currencies.
 
Z-Qualizer said:
Apparently you do believe that that it will recover…
So when do you typically buy, if not after a 50+% dip? Can you accurately predict the bottom?
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I can't predict the bottom, but I do know V bottoms are rare. Typically, not always, it returns to give you a second or maybe even a third or fourth chance to buy it if you feel like you missed the bottom. Often are dead cat bounces and then smolders for a while.

Long term I do think these are dead money, but there's still so much multi year upward momentum (this thing started at what, like a penny?) that a huge recovery is very possible in the interim. It's a roulette wheel that I have no interest in other than maybe short fun money trades to satisfy the gambling itch.
 
If one wants to see how insane and emotional the market can be with momentum read about SIGL. These aren't the exact figures but extremely close.

Stock a year ago was about 60 cents. Elon Musk tweets about it, goes to 15. But he clarifies, hey that's the WRONG Signal stock you guys are buying. Even AFTER the clarification people kept piling in and drove the price to 70 DOLLARS. The market felt it had a 60 cents value prior to an incorrect "tweet." Who the f was buying this at 30/40/50 dollars? Now that is complete irrational momentum insanity.

Stock sits today at about 50 cents. And these kinds of stories never end.
 
Z-Qualizer said:
Apparently you do believe that that it will recover…
So when do you typically buy, if not after a 50+% dip? Can you accurately predict the bottom?
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Following up on what I was saying about stocks/assets after momentum is decimated, look at Bitcoin when it plunged from 20,000 down to around 6500 or whatever it was. You had about 4 months to continually buy it at around that price after each successive bounce. No V bottom to worry about.

Then it fell even further to around 3500 I believe, but again, there was no rush to call bottom. It smoldered for a couple of months there as well. That's not a guarantee, but it seems more common in speculative stuff and less risky than grabbing the falling knife and calling V bottom.

Again, none of anything is a guarantee, but with age I try to be more conservative and hopefully learned something, and less FOMO. If I miss out, I miss out.
Screenshot_20220123-015956~2.png
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
If one wants to see how insane and emotional the market can be with momentum read about SIGL. These aren't the exact figures but extremely close.

Stock a year ago was about 60 cents. Elon Musk tweets about it, goes to 15. But he clarifies, hey that's the WRONG Signal stock you guys are buying. Even AFTER the clarification people kept piling in and drove the price to 70 DOLLARS. The market felt it had a 60 cents value prior to an incorrect "tweet." Who the f was buying this at 30/40/50 dollars? Now that is complete irrational momentum insanity.

Stock sits today at about 50 cents. And these kinds of stories never end.
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SIGL only has a market cap of 5mil. As we saw in 2020-21, it's very easy for Twitter/YouTube to pump a stock up to 500mil-1bil, which is where SIGL peaked.

BTC is currently 677bil market cap. It's not just dumb retail who bought it.
 
Mman said:
just to be clear, you are trying to use technical analysis from stocks to predict future price movements of crypto. Technical analysis doesn't even work for stocks.
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One very good chartist I know says TA is even more accurate for crypto. I'm not smart enough to know why.
 
twospadz said:
Evergrow Crator being released likely next week. Evergrow continues to pump hard. Expect 2022 for it to be billions in marketcap. Currently valued 600 million
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Two weeks later it's worth 360 million. Hope no one bought.

My good friend is a software engineer with the skills to work at any FANG company. He creates his own ****coins for fun. He made dogegrow which was a parody of Evergrow. He said "the smart contract code was basically identical except using Doge pegged token". I showed him that video about Evergrow and he laughed at how they are marketing themselves as a metaverse token.
 
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mentos said:
One very good chartist I know says TA is even more accurate for crypto. I'm not smart enough to know why.
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Meh… I watch a ton of crypto channels on YouTube and I’ve seen a lot of crypto TA “experts”… and in my experience, their TA-based predictions are wrong more than they’re right.

The difference is: on the rare occasions they accurately predict something, they shout it from the rooftops repeatedly… Conversely, when their “expert” TA leads to a dead wrong prediction, they downplay it and always have some excuse (market manipulation, etc.)

But I get it, people get mesmerized by fancy charts/graphs - I had a boss that was the same way.
 
mentos said:
One very good chartist I know says TA is even more accurate for crypto. I'm not smart enough to know why.
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There is no such thing as a good chartist. Past performance does not predict future results.

Crypto is a useless fad that will only serve to catalyze the next recession when the whales cash out and the general public realizes that they are holding the bag.
 
Z-Qualizer said:
Meh… I watch a ton of crypto channels on YouTube and I’ve seen a lot of crypto TA “experts”… and in my experience, their TA-based predictions are wrong more than they’re right.

The difference is: on the rare occasions they accurately predict something, they shout it from the rooftops repeatedly… Conversely, when their “expert” TA leads to a dead wrong prediction, they downplay it and always have some excuse (market manipulation, etc.)

But I get it, people get mesmerized by fancy charts/graphs - I had a boss that was the same way.
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it's the same as every stock picking technical analyst under the sun. Hell even mutual fund companies behave the same way. You make a million detailed predictions (or even create the mutual funds). Then you wait til a few of them are right and you market the hell out of that strategy that has beaten the market by XXX% over so many years. Turns out it never works going forward because it was only lucky in the first place.
 
Mman said:
just to be clear, you are trying to use technical analysis from stocks to predict future price movements of crypto. Technical analysis doesn't even work for stocks.
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Just to be clear you are incorrect as usual. Why on God's green earth would it matter it you are look at chart patterns in stocks or in crypto? You really have no idea what drives momentum plays if you think the two are different.
 
mentos said:
One very good chartist I know says TA is even more accurate for crypto. I'm not smart enough to know why.
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He's right because there's very little fundamentals involved with crypto. The overriding influence to crypto's wild swings is investor emotion and psychology.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Just to be clear you are incorrect as usual. Why on God's green earth would it matter it you are look at chart patterns in stocks or in crypto? You really have no idea what drives momentum plays if you think the two are different.
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because academic research has shown it to not actually work. Charts always work in hindsight. The people using them just don't actually get rich from using it, they get rich from selling it to someone else.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
He's right because there's very little fundamentals involved with crypto. The overriding influence to crypto's wild swings is investor emotion and psychology.
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now it is possible that some a "commodity" with no fundamentals could be more amenable to technical analysis than stocks. However there is not a long enough track record of any coin to be able to have any degree of certainty making that claim.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
He's right because there's very little fundamentals involved with crypto. The overriding influence to crypto's wild swings is investor emotion and psychology.
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It makes sense because stocks are easily affected by factors like news, insider selling, earning reports etc. Not saying TA always works but it's better than going in blind.
 
nimbus said:
Did that chartist predict this crash?
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Haven't talked to him in a while. I'm sure he was cautious. He predicted the first one in May.

Volume was very low this past month, I don't think anyone expected it to go higher.
 
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GassYous said:
There is no such thing as a good chartist. Past performance does not predict future results.

Crypto is a useless fad that will only serve to catalyze the next recession when the whales cash out and the general public realizes that they are holding the bag.
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And this I believe is the reason why many countries have banned crypto. It can destabilize financial systems.
 
Mman said:
because academic research has shown it to not actually work. Charts always work in hindsight. The people using them just don't actually get rich from using it, they get rich from selling it to someone else.
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You didn't answer the question
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
You didn't answer the question
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which question? The only one I saw was difficult to understanding seeming to ask me why I would look at a chart. Are you referring to momentum? Because that is well proven to work decently well until it doesn't and then it crashes spectacularly.

I am somewhat amused that on a forum full of physicians (and those studying to become ones) there can be so much pseudoscience garbage spun about a topic. We spend our careers learning to objectively analyze data and studies and understand what proof is and I suggest sticking to that. Everybody wants to get rich quick, I get it. It's seductive. It just doesn't work.
 
Mman said:
because academic research has shown it to not actually work. Charts always work in hindsight. The people using them just don't actually get rich from using it, they get rich from selling it to someone else.
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First, I've put very little interest in formulas, moving averages etc. I do believe those are easy idiot methods sold to people who want to get rich quick that wouldn't know where to start with an x and y axis. So let's get that out of the way.

But as far as occasionally seeing high probability preductive chart patterns, can we at least agree that that is impossible to measure by "academic research"? Who are they measuring? It's incredibly subjective. If they study myself and over 99% of others research would conclude the between the legs windmill dunk is extremely difficult and should therefore never be attempted. And Dominique Wilkins or Zach Levine would laugh at that.

What set you off this time was the simply statement that I find V bottoms after a momentum collapse to be less common than retesting that bottom, and often retesting a number of times not just once. What is so egregious about that? Are you saying V bottoms don't exist? Obviously they do. Are you then saying they occur more often, or about the same, as anything else? Because once we agree that there is such a thing as rapidly down and then right back up ("V" bottom) then there obviously is an answer to: Is it less common, of equal occurrence, or more common.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
First, I've put very little interest in formulas, moving averages etc. I do believe those are easy idiot methods sold to people who want to get rich quick that wouldn't know where to start with an x and y axis. So let's get that out of the way.

But as far as occasionally seeing high probability preductive chart patterns, can we at least agree that that is impossible to measure by "academic research"? Who are they measuring? It's incredibly subjective. If they study myself and over 99% of others research would conclude the between the legs windmill dunk is extremely difficult and should therefore never be attempted. And Dominique Wilkins or Zach Levine would laugh at that.

What set you off this time was the simply statement that I find V bottoms after a momentum collapse to be less common than retesting that bottom, and often retesting a number of times not just once. What is so egregious about that? Are you saying V bottoms don't exist? Obviously they do. Are you then saying they occur more often, or about the same, as anything else? Because once we agree that there is such a thing as rapidly down and then right back up ("V" bottom) then there obviously is an answer to: Is it less common, of equal occurrence, or more common.
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V bottoms exist but it is impossible to predict them reliably before they happen. They can only be seen after the fact. If somebody can say, “we are approaching a V bottom. It will happen within the next 3 weeks.” and be correct 70% of the time, I would sign up for their newsletter. Are we at a v bottom now? Who knows? So knowing chart patterns is not useful.
 
nimbus said:
V bottoms exist but it is impossible to predict them reliably before they happen. They can only be seen after the fact. If somebody can say, “we are approaching a V bottom. It will happen within the next 3 weeks.” and be correct 70% of the time, I would sign up for their newsletter. Are we at a v bottom now? Who knows? So knowing chart patterns is not useful.
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But my entire point was DON'T catch a falling knife trying to guess a V bottom. Past history does say it's more likely (not saying a guarantee) to smolder around a while at the bottom if you are intent on buying it long (I wouldn't want any part of buying and holding Bitcoin long personally).
 
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