Be ahead of the curve

[mentos]

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never go all in into a single pool or even single defi platform. Were you around during defi summer 2020?

I put in one ETH and it's making $1-2/day (currently 11% APY) so far. I still don't fully understand how this works. If ETH pumps to like 8k all of a sudden, will this all become ARB and I lose out on ETH gains?

 

[mentos]

The dip is back.

 

[finalpsychyear]

The dip is back.

I am starting to think that everything this year happened backwards. Instead of overtaking previous ATH in dec we did it in march. Now we will spend post halving year chopping in the 50-70k range and blow off top in 2025 will just be 100k.

Then we won't break 100k until end of 2028 which is the next halving year and due to diminishing returns might peak at 120-125 in 2029 blow off top.

This would seem terrible as someone buying at 70 now and selling at 120 in 5 years (2029) if they get lucky to time the top would be better off with S and P 500 as the returns would be similar.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

I am starting to think that everything this year happened backwards. Instead of overtaking previous ATH in dec we did it in march. Now we will spend post halving year chopping in the 50-70k range and blow off top in 2025 will just be 100k.

Then we won't break 100k until end of 2028 which is the next halving year and due to diminishing returns might peak at 120-125 in 2029 blow off top.

This would seem terrible as someone buying at 70 now and selling at 120 in 5 years (2029) if they get lucky to time the top would be better off with S and P 500 as the returns would be similar.

This is extremely conservative take, almost bearish even. I respect your differing opinion though.

 

[finalpsychyear]

This is extremely conservative take, almost bearish even. I respect your differing opinion though.

Yeah but i like to set low sandbagged expectations. Even under such a scenario you still got those 10-11% CAGR s and p 500 returns so in my mind its kinda like thats your floor. Again this is for the person who bought at 70 not really applicable for most of us but even for that guy who got in at 70 they are getting s and p 500 returns if it performs as stated above.

 

[sevo00]

Bottom is in. Bookmark this

 

[sevo00]

Perfect bullish pennant on the daily. Textbook

 

[mentos]

I am starting to think that everything this year happened backwards. Instead of overtaking previous ATH in dec we did it in march. Now we will spend post halving year chopping in the 50-70k range and blow off top in 2025 will just be 100k.

Then we won't break 100k until end of 2028 which is the next halving year and due to diminishing returns might peak at 120-125 in 2029 blow off top.

This would seem terrible as someone buying at 70 now and selling at 120 in 5 years (2029) if they get lucky to time the top would be better off with S and P 500 as the returns would be similar.

78% (70k to 125k) returns in 4 years is considered terrible?

 

[finalpsychyear]

78% (70k to 125k) returns in 4 years is considered terrible?

over 5 years the CAGR would be similar to the s and p 500 index fund with more risk and assuming you did get the 125k price.

 

[sevo00]

Yeah but i like to set low sandbagged expectations. Even under such a scenario you still got those 10-11% CAGR s and p 500 returns so in my mind its kinda like thats your floor. Again this is for the person who bought at 70 not really applicable for most of us but even for that guy who got in at 70 they are getting s and p 500 returns if it performs as stated above.

Gold is in price discovery for the first time ever during bitcoins existence. Gold breaking ATH is the cleanest signal that all alternative risk assets are about to higher than expected. We will go higher than 100k

 

[finalpsychyear]

Gold is in price discovery for the first time ever during bitcoins existence. Gold breaking ATH is the cleanest signal that all alternative risk assets are about to higher than expected. We will go higher than 100k

I would love for that to happen in 2024 but i think it may be the blow off top in 2025.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

I would love for that to happen in 2024 but i think it may be the blow off top in 2025.

Just for fun, let’s say BTC breaks (and holds above) 100k this September… what would be your 2025 price prediction then?

 

[finalpsychyear]

Just for fun, let’s say BTC breaks (and holds above) 100k this September… what would be your 2025 price prediction then?

120s. My numbers are sandbagged so i don't get expectations like plan b saying 500k this cycle.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

120s. My numbers are sandbagged so i don't get expectations like plan b saying 500k this cycle.

Fair enough. I understand keeping expectations low to avoid future disappointment. Makes sense.

 

[finalpsychyear]

Just for fun, let’s say BTC breaks (and holds above) 100k this September… what would be your 2025 price prediction then?

what is your 2024 and 2025 btc price ranges given what has happened thus far this year?

 

[Z-Qualizer]

what is your 2024 and 2025 btc price ranges given what has happened thus far this year?

I really think BTC will break 100k before the end of 2024. There are just so many positive catalysts pushing things that way.

2025 I’m much less confident about. It’s so hard to predict that far out because A LOT can happen between now and then. Heck we could be in the middle of WWIII by then. In the meantime, I’m really anxious and excited to see how the halving and presidential election turn out.

All that being said, I’m hoping for a cycle top in 2025 that breaks at least 150k. Anything above that is gravy, anything less and I’ll be disappointed.

 

[finalpsychyear]

I really think BTC will break 100k before the end of 2024. There are just so many positive catalysts pushing things that way.

2025 I’m much less confident about. It’s so hard to predict that far out because A LOT can happen between now and then. Heck we could be in the middle of WWIII by then. In the meantime, I’m really anxious and excited to see how the halving and presidential election turn out.

All that being said, I’m hoping for a cycle top in 2025 that breaks at least 150k. Anything above that is gravy, anything less and I’ll be disappointed.

I'm also probably more interested in the 2028-2029 price ranges. I don't think we can really predict that one before this one plays out.

But if this cycle only stays in the 100-120 range I would think then sub 200s would be in 2028-2029 which would be sorta of a let down.

I think we'll have our answers by q4 this year. If we haven't cracked 100k by eoy then we are probably peaking at 100-120s.

 

[sevo00]

Jeo Boden 😉

 

[finalpsychyear]

I really think BTC will break 100k before the end of 2024. There are just so many positive catalysts pushing things that way.

2025 I’m much less confident about. It’s so hard to predict that far out because A LOT can happen between now and then. Heck we could be in the middle of WWIII by then. In the meantime, I’m really anxious and excited to see how the halving and presidential election turn out.

All that being said, I’m hoping for a cycle top in 2025 that breaks at least 150k. Anything above that is gravy, anything less and I’ll be disappointed.

I mean getting to the 150s would fundamentally improve my daily lifestyle. I would actually be able to cut hours off my schedule. Starting later and ending earlier.

So in 2016 from halving to top it was a 30x, in 2020 it was an 8x. So if we have another similar ratio it would be like 2x from halving price. I'd take it. Is that too much to ask?

 

[Z-Qualizer]

I mean getting to the 150s would fundamentally improve my daily lifestyle. I would actually be able to cut hours off my schedule. Starting later and ending earlier.

So in 2016 from halving to top it was a 30x, in 2020 it was an 8x. So if we have another similar ratio it would be like 2x from halving price. I'd take it. Is that too much to ask?

Yeah I’m in a similar boat… if we hit 150k I won’t be able to outright retire, but it would give me enough cushion to cut my hours back and get some more work/life balance.

 

[finalpsychyear]

Yeah I’m in a similar boat… if we hit 150k I won’t be able to outright retire, but it would give me enough cushion to cut my hours back and get some more work/life balance.

Im not that great at estimating future expenses given I dont have kids yet but plan to have at least 2 in the near future. I know this sounds like overkill but I take our normal expenses now and then double them as an overestimate of future expenses with 2 kids and possible nanny since wife wants to work FT. When I'm at a 3-3.5 percent withdrawal rate and it generates double our current expenses, I think its safe to go PT for 5-7 years to ensure i stay out of sequence of return risk non sense but also bc i'd be planning a mid 40's retirement and i think some work is vital for health.

So for example purposes if we spend 50k/yr then i'd anticipate 100k in future. A portfolio would need 3.3m to have 100k at 3.3% SWR. Probably overkill to think that way but it's how i'm wired.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

Im not that great at estimating future expenses given I dont have kids yet but plan to have at least 2 in the near future. I know this sounds like overkill but I take our normal expenses now and then double them as an overestimate of future expenses with 2 kids and possible nanny since wife wants to work FT. When I'm at a 3-3.5 percent withdrawal rate and it generates double our current expenses, I think its safe to go PT for 5-7 years to ensure i stay out of sequence of return risk non sense but also bc i'd be planning a mid 40's retirement and i think some work is vital for health.

So for example purposes if we spend 50k/yr then i'd anticipate 100k in future. A portfolio would need 3.3m to have 100k at 3.3% SWR. Probably overkill to think that way but it's how i'm wired.

Ah… so you and I are at different stages in our lives.

I really wanted kids too, but it hasn’t happened. And at my age (mid 40s) that ship has probably sailed for me.

But kids are really expensive, so I guess not having to plan for all that future expense is the silver lining/consolation prize for me.

 

[mentos]

Im not that great at estimating future expenses given I dont have kids yet but plan to have at least 2 in the near future. I know this sounds like overkill but I take our normal expenses now and then double them as an overestimate of future expenses with 2 kids and possible nanny since wife wants to work FT. When I'm at a 3-3.5 percent withdrawal rate and it generates double our current expenses, I think its safe to go PT for 5-7 years to ensure i stay out of sequence of return risk non sense but also bc i'd be planning a mid 40's retirement and i think some work is vital for health.

So for example purposes if we spend 50k/yr then i'd anticipate 100k in future. A portfolio would need 3.3m to have 100k at 3.3% SWR. Probably overkill to think that way but it's how i'm wired.

I would triple or quadruple it for 2 kids. Do you know how much diapers, formula, daycare, swim lessons, college savings etc cost? You will be too tired to cook so your take out bill will be much higher. You won't have time to clean, so you'll probably hire cleaners. You'll do laundry everyday so your utilities will go up a lot. If you live in a cold climate then you'll have to keep the heat on all the time. When you're at the airport, just look at how much STUFF parents have to bring with them.

 

[finalpsychyear]

Yeah I’m in a similar boat… if we hit 150k I won’t be able to outright retire, but it would give me enough cushion to cut my hours back and get some more work/life balance.

Been a little quiet in this forums. What's your halving price target? I'm going to say 75-80k then it will correct a bit afterwards.

 

[triggermaster]

Been a little quiet in this forums. What's your halving price target? I'm going to say 75-80k then it will correct a bit afterwards.

Once all bitcoin is mined, the nodes providing computing power will no longer profit by mining bitcoin. Either, transaction fees will skyrocket or people will shut down their nodes, right? Either way, it has to be a further barrier to bitcoin actually functioning as a currency.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

Once all bitcoin is mined, the nodes providing computing power will no longer profit by mining bitcoin. Either, transaction fees will skyrocket or people will shut down their nodes, right? Either way, it has to be a further barrier to bitcoin actually functioning as a currency.

FYI: the last bitcoin won’t be mined until 2140. No that’s not a typo - I didn’t mean 2040 - I meant 2140. So 116 years from now. After that, transaction fees will be how the node operators earn money.

 

[triggermaster]

FYI: the last bitcoin won’t be mined until 2140. No that’s not a typo - I didn’t mean 2040 - I meant 2140. So 116 years from now. After that, transaction fees will be how the node operators earn money.

Sure, but it will be prohibitively expensive to mine long before that, unless the prices shoots up, which is unlikely if people see the transaction fee cliff approaching.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

Been a little quiet in this forums. What's your halving price target? I'm going to say 75-80k then it will correct a bit afterwards.

I was just thinking the same thing - very quiet for a GREEN day!!

Since we are less than 2 weeks from the halving now, I’m going to guess that we break 75k before then.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

Sure, but it will be prohibitively expensive to mine long before that, unless the prices shoots up, which is unlikely if people see the transaction fee cliff approaching.

It’s much more expensive to mine bitcoin now, than it was just 10 years ago. One might even argue the cost is comparably prohibitive. Yet people are still mining it, because yes the price keeps going up.

But I guess you’re right? If the price doesn’t continue to go up, then there will be less incentive to mine it. Is that the point you’re making? If so, I can’t argue with that basic logic.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

My new question to all of the Bitcoin haters, naysayers, and doomers…

If you’re so sure that Bitcoin sucks and is going to fail, WHY aren’t you shorting it??

 

[mentos]

My current gains/losses:

BNB +55%
ETH +27%
BTC +24%
SOL -10%
ADA -69%
DOT -79%

Don't know if I'll ever break even on ADA and DOT.

 

[finalpsychyear]

It’s much more expensive to mine bitcoin now, than it was just 10 years ago. One might even argue the cost is comparably prohibitive. Yet people are still mining it, because yes the price keeps going up.

But I guess you’re right? If the price doesn’t continue to go up, then there will be less incentive to mine it. Is that the point you’re making? If so, I can’t argue with that basic logic.

Ok but lets say 90 percent of the miners go broke then since the price incr that was to come gets delayed usually 6-7 mo. Won't that only further the supply shock even more and cause an even bigger demand vs supply issue beyond the halving?

 

[finalpsychyear]

Sure, but it will be prohibitively expensive to mine long before that, unless the prices shoots up, which is unlikely if people see the transaction fee cliff approaching.

I trust that blackrock, fidelity and the big banks know what they are doing which is to make the most money possible. That won't happen if they massively short this asset now thats like winning a battle instead of the war. The money to be made is for decades of those fees that will gradually go up once there are less players in the field. Also, imagine the PR from that and even more hesitancy with their name in the future. I find this very low likelihood.

Price going up only increases blackrocks fees plus they will want a bear market just like before to sell and capitalize on that end too. Then it will repeat. Why pull the rug once when you can have your cake and eat it too for years to come.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

My current gains/losses:

BNB +55%
ETH +27%
BTC +24%
SOL -10%
ADA -69%
DOT -79%

Don't know if I'll ever break even on ADA and DOT.

Not bad!! And your SOL bag should be green *soon* too 🤞

 

[Z-Qualizer]

Ok but lets say 90 percent of the miners go broke then since the price incr that was to come gets delayed usually 6-7 mo. Won't that only further the supply shock even more and cause an even bigger demand vs supply issue beyond the halving?

True… I think his argument assumes a decline in demand (for some reason)? I just decided to go with it.

 

[mentos]

Not bad!! And your SOL bag should be green *soon* too 🤞

Yep it has been green a couple times already.

I'm definitely selling all and buying only BTC next time.

 

[triggermaster]

Ok but lets say 90 percent of the miners go broke then since the price incr that was to come gets delayed usually 6-7 mo. Won't that only further the supply shock even more and cause an even bigger demand vs supply issue beyond the halving?

You don’t seem to understand what the halving is.

 

[finalpsychyear]

You don’t seem to understand what the halving is.

Im pretty sure the price goes to half and the supply doubles. This increases adoption since there is more available to the masses at a lower entry point but eventually due to the incr capital into the space the price goes higher than pre halving.

 

[triggermaster]

Im pretty sure the price goes to half and the supply doubles. This increases adoption since there is more available to the masses at a lower entry point but eventually due to the incr capital into the space the price goes higher than pre halving.

I know you are being sarcastic, but I’m still pretty sure you don’t understand the halving.

 

[martvubo]

Im pretty sure the price goes to half and the supply doubles. This increases adoption since there is more available to the masses at a lower entry point but eventually due to the incr capital into the space the price goes higher than pre halving.

Just in case this isn’t sarcastic, and for clarity to others reading this, that’s not correct at all.

 

[triggermaster]

Just in case this isn’t sarcastic, and for clarity to others reading this, that’s not correct at all.

The scary part is that he seems to think it’s the exact opposite, supply halves and price doubles, but that isn’t much closer to being correct.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

Serious question for all of you… between these 2 options:

A.) continue driving a Honda accord and retire at age 45.

B.) buy a “supercar” (Lamborghini, etc.) and retire at age 50.

Which would you choose???

 

[MirrorTodd]

Serious question for all of you… between these 2 options:

A.) continue driving a Honda accord and retire at age 45.

B.) buy a “supercar” (Lamborghini, etc.) and retire at age 50.

Which would you choose???

Retire at 45. That's a no brainer. Supercars are useless unless you go to the track.

 

[mentos]

Serious question for all of you… between these 2 options:

A.) continue driving a Honda accord and retire at age 45.

B.) buy a “supercar” (Lamborghini, etc.) and retire at age 50.

Which would you choose???

A. I don't really care about cars. That's why I don't care much for Tesla. I'd rather live somewhere where a car isn't needed.

 

[mentos]

Hope no one here was shaken out in the past few weeks.

 

[Z-Qualizer]

Retire at 45. That's a no brainer. Supercars are useless unless you go to the track.

No interest in racing… just want to look cool and show off my juicy bitcoin gains

 

[Z-Qualizer]

Hope no one here was shaken out in the past few weeks.

They’d have some pretty weak hands to get shaken out by that… and one month prior to halving!!

 

[finalpsychyear]

Serious question for all of you… between these 2 options:

A.) continue driving a Honda accord and retire at age 45.

B.) buy a “supercar” (Lamborghini, etc.) and retire at age 50.

Which would you choose???

Lease an electrix car thats just as fast or rent the super cars. Ull have plenty of time to do that at 45 yo.

 

[LivetoTell]

B) Only if that car really hits all the buttons for you.

 

[mentos]

LoL everytime this thread gets excited about a pump, crypto immediately dips 😅 the dips are getting higher though.