I'm not going to say this is what I intend on getting next year on the boards. But for the sake of easing my worries about failing to match psych, how realistic is to for a middle of the class DO student with lets say a 480-500 COMLEX score or 210 USMLE to match somewhere relatively midrange ( Basically just decided to choose scores on the lowish end of the average deviation)?
I mean what I'm trying to say is whether or not the mood about psych getting competitive is really real or just hype and that still relatively open to almost any graduate?
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Advance-Data-Tables-2016_Final.pdf
If you look at table 7, 10% increase in US MDs in each of the last 2 years, highest increase among all specialties.
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Charting-Outcomes-2014-Final.pdf
Refer to Psych, page 253. In 2014, Step 1 Avg. = 220, Step 2 Avg = 231. In 2010, Step 1 Avg = 214.
So I think its safe to predict the average this year (2016) for Step 1 was probably around 224 +/- 1. Step 2, I'm gonna guess an average of around 234. And I suspect for both, it will go up again by 1-2 points for 2017 match. But obviously, take into account inflation (everyone's scores is going up, but my hunch is that psych is increasing at a faster rate relatively and closing in on other specialities).
Is Psych impossible for DOs? Of course not. Since you got 220s, you're WILL match. No doubt. But unlike 5 years ago, you probably won't be cherry picking university programs on the coasts, unless you have stacked research and/or 235s. So if you want to bang into places like Beth Israel in NYC/St. Lukes Roosevelt/LIJ or Jefferson in Philly or Georgetown in D.C, I would aim for a 240 on Step 2, and throw in a case report or a poster, psych related. I'm not saying you can't get into these places with a step 2 of 230-235, but 240 and I think you're breathing easy. BUT, if you just want to match into any ACGME program, anywhere in the country, then you can just coast 4th year, and you'll still be fine. Like others have mentionned, geography and academic of program will impact your rank list, greatly.
IMGs/DOs will be feeling the crunch in the upcoming matches, as Psych closes in on specialities like IM/Rads (Diagnostic, NOT IR)/Anesthesia over the next 4-5 years (which is when IMGs I think will be shut out of psych (2020), and DOs will have to be super competitive). Also, psych will most likely overtake Peds/FM/PMR/Path comfortably in the next 1-2 years (if psych hasn't already, which I think it has for FM/Peds).
I mean, in terms of US MD %, Psych is way head of IM/FM (61% vs. 43/45%). But IM is still ahead of psych in terms of USMLE Avg. (step 1 231 vs. 222, 2014 averages). But as I mentioned earlier, I suspect this gap will close in the next few years. It should be noted that this year, for the first time in 15 years, IM DROPPED in number of US MDs that matched into the specialty. This is a big deal, in a speciality that over the years has seen an increase in over 100-200 US MDs/year, on average. While I have no stats to back this up, I think its safe to say that the IM Step 1 231 average of 2014 has most likely been stagnate, and maybe even dropped 1-2 points this past match.
Just my 2 cents/prediction.
Anecdotally, I have definitely seen a much stronger interest among medical students in psych these past 2 years at my institution. Interest in electives/sub-i has shot up, no question.
