Chances of matching into prelim

[I Need Advice]

What would be the odds of matching into a prelim med spot with only one program ranked?

Thanks

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[Wrigleyville]

No one has any clue because we don't know the program, we don't know your stats, and even if we did it would be a crapshoot because there is wild fluctuation in the difficulty of getting a particular prelim spot because there are generally few of them.

It is easier to predict based on historical information if you'll match at a residency with 40 spots than one with 4 spots. Less variability