Crapshoot - interesting...

[YzIa]

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The overwhelming opinion on these boards seems to be that if you are the typical pre-med matriculant (MCAT~30, GPA ~3.6) that your odds of acceptance are a crapshoot. To some point that may be accurate at any one given school, but looking at the stats and doing some very light math ( I was bored ), matriculants into any program vs. non acceptants show some pretty substantial differences. Data from 02/03 applicants vs matriculants

n,VR, PS, BS, CS, WS, Science GPA, GPA

Applicants ~35,000, 8.8, 9.0, 9.3, *27, P, 3.36, 3.47
Matriculants ~16,500, 9.5, 10.0, 10.2, *30, P, 3.55, 3.62
Non matriculants ~17,500, 8, 8.25, 8.45, *25, P, 3.18, 3.33

* CS was the sum of average VR, PS, BS. This may not reflect the actual average composite of the pool. A whopping 48% of applicants matriculated! The number of applicants has decreased over the past 7-8 years considerably, but seem to be on the incline once again, while the matriculant stats have shown a slight increase over this time period. This seems to indicate that programs have not had to lower statistical standards over this time period. I was stunned by the avg GPA differences in both science and overall. I never realized how many sub 3.5's apply to M.D. programs.

I think that this is enough to show that there is at least some sanity to the system, so those average joe's or average pre-med (matriculants) can rest a little easier knowing their odds of attending allopathic medical school somewhere are good.



This post and the author should not be held accountable for the substance of post or its lack of use, meaning, or substance - what-so-ever.

 

[davedavedave]

i dont think its a crapshoot to get into a medschool because the stats avg out over a large number of schools...its more a crapshoot to get into one particular school...like often times youll see yale take someone who got rejected from a lowertier school... i know someone whose only acceptance was at hopkins (tho many other waitlists)

 

[davedavedave]

wait my post just contradicted itself... nevermind, this is a stupid topic

 

[YzIa]

I agree, a very stupid topic!

 

[SanDiegoSOD]

It's definitely not a crapshoot. Strong applicants go to Harvard, Stanford, and UCSF; mid-tier applicants go to their state school or lower-mid tier privates, and weak applicants either dont get in or go to the Carribean. It's actually pretty simple.

 

[leechy]

I agree with davedavedave actually; it's more of a crapshoot getting into any one particular schools. If you're a strong candidate, for example, you'll probably get into some top ten school - but it's hard to anticipate which one it'll be. Analogous situations are faced by middle of the pack and weaker candidates, I would wager.

I too know of people who got into super-high calibre schools and got rejected at far "lower-ranking" schools... Perhaps schools differ in their non-academic criteria for candidates. Whatever the case, there is definitely an element of randomness and subjectivity in the process.

 

[adamj61]

I think a lot of people don't see how much of a pain in the ass it is to pick a class. You have to be able to guess who will accept if invited...that is why you see a lot of high end people get rejected at less competitive schools. I don't think it is a crapshoot if the school thinks you will matriculate, and you are close to their averages

 

[SanDiegoSOD]

I think a lot of people don't see how much of a pain in the ass it is to pick a class. You have to be able to guess who will accept if invited...that is why you see a lot of high end people get rejected at less competitive schools. I don't think it is a crapshoot if the school thinks you will matriculate, and you are close to their averages

That's a good point about whether or not a school thinks you will matriculate. A major reason that exceptional applicants get rejected from their bottom-mid tier state school is that the school knows it is a safety net and does not want to waste an acceptance on someone who won't attend.

 

[NonTradMed]

Hmm.....good theories....schools are looking to accept people that will accept them, hence people sometimes feel they have no 'real' safety schools b/c the safety schools want to avoid accepting students who will only look on them as second choice.

I have to agree that if you have the 'average' matriculants' credentials (3.5 and 30), you will get in SOMEWHERE, just don't know where....however, any lower and there might be more subjective factors (clinicals, volunteers, life experiences etc).

Pfffst, I just wish I was already holding an acceptance already so I can stop the 'will they?' or 'won't they' questions......

 

[calcrew14]

Applicants are not sure at which school they would be accepted. Adcoms are not too sure that their offering acceptances would be reciprocated. Both applicants and adcoms have to work at least twice harder than they need to. I myself am skeptical about reproducibility of the process. Would the same pool of applicants be matriculated significantly the same every year? Or would it be like the same deck of card is shuffled again and again. For every crop of us, the smaller amount of cream can be skimmed and the contaminating chaff can be weeded out, easily. The problem comes when there is a need for only half of the rest that looks more and more homogeneous. At this certain juncture, including the attempt to fractionalize the cream of our crop, randomization may serve justice as best as other means.

 

[georgebush43]

The overwhelming opinion on these boards seems to be that if you are the typical pre-med matriculant (MCAT~30, GPA ~3.6) that your odds of acceptance are a crapshoot. To some point that may be accurate at any one given school, but looking at the stats and doing some very light math ( I was bored ), matriculants into any program vs. non acceptants show some pretty substantial differences. Data from 02/03 applicants vs matriculants

n,VR, PS, BS, CS, WS, Science GPA, GPA

Applicants ~35,000, 8.8, 9.0, 9.3, *27, P, 3.36, 3.47
Matriculants ~16,500, 9.5, 10.0, 10.2, *30, P, 3.55, 3.62
Non matriculants ~17,500, 8, 8.25, 8.45, *25, P, 3.18, 3.33

* CS was the sum of average VR, PS, BS. This may not reflect the actual average composite of the pool. A whopping 48% of applicants matriculated! The number of applicants has decreased over the past 7-8 years considerably, but seem to be on the incline once again, while the matriculant stats have shown a slight increase over this time period. This seems to indicate that programs have not had to lower statistical standards over this time period. I was stunned by the avg GPA differences in both science and overall. I never realized how many sub 3.5's apply to M.D. programs.

I think that this is enough to show that there is at least some sanity to the system, so those average joe's or average pre-med (matriculants) can rest a little easier knowing their odds of attending allopathic medical school somewhere are good.



This post and the author should not be held accountable for the substance of post or its lack of use, meaning, or substance - what-so-ever.

have you ever thought about the poor jigga's they let to med school these days?

 

[Bear1220]

mid-tier applicants go to their state school

You've got to shoot for above mid-tier to be competitive at a UC medical school. California premeds have it rough...

 

[SanDiegoSOD]

You've got to shoot for above mid-tier to be competitive at a UC medical school. California premeds have it rough...

Ya, I wasnt being scientific. An acceptance into the lowest ranked UC (Irvine) is still quite an accomplishment.

 

[Bear1220]

An acceptance into the lowest ranked UC (Irvine) is still quite an accomplishment.

Seriously...

 

[phosphorylation]

interesting...