TellingTruth
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It's also 150-200 positions eliminated.How many layoffs is that, 150-200? That's like one pharmacy school class size, a drop in the bucket.
Of course they will, 1 store for every new grad. CVS is about to hit a massive growth spurt.But they will open new stores also.
If BLS’s 3-6% growth rate for pharmacist jobs holds true, then there should be around 1,740 new jobs being created each year for 15,000 new grads.It's also 150-200 positions eliminated.
If BLS’s 3-6% growth rate for pharmacist jobs holds true, then there should be around 1,740 new jobs being created each year for 15,000 new grads.
If 200 positions were eliminated from this move alone then it means that the actual pharmacist job growth rate was r3tarded by 200/1,740 = 11.5% compared to projections this year. Though to be fair it is really r3tarded by 200/1,540 = 13% after adjusting because not only were there not the growth of 200 positions (+0), those 200 positions like you said were eliminated completely (-200), and those displaced pharmacists are fighting for those jobs along with the new grads. Someone keep me honest here with the math.
If BLS’s 3-6% growth rate for pharmacist jobs holds true, then there should be around 1,740 new jobs being created each year for 15,000 new grads.
If 200 positions were eliminated from this move alone then it means that the actual pharmacist job growth rate was r3tarded by 200/1,740 = 11.5% compared to projections this year. Though to be fair it is really r3tarded by 200/1,540 = 13% after adjusting because not only were there not the growth of 200 positions (+0), those 200 positions like you said were eliminated completely (-200), and those displaced pharmacists are fighting for those jobs along with the new grads. Someone keep me honest here with the math.
If BLS’s 3-6% growth rate for pharmacist jobs holds true, then there should be around 1,740 new jobs being created each year for 15,000 new grads.
If 200 positions were eliminated from this move alone then it means that the actual pharmacist job growth rate was r3tarded by 200/1,740 = 11.5% compared to projections this year. Though to be fair it is really r3tarded by 200/1,540 = 13% after adjusting because not only were there not the growth of 200 positions (+0), those 200 positions like you said were eliminated completely (-200), and those displaced pharmacists are fighting for those jobs along with the new grads. Someone keep me honest here with the math.
Yeah, this wasn’t a robust analysis. If it were, then we should be comparing the rates of pharmacists leaving the profession against the rates of all the new grads who didn’t get a job right out of school and and rates of residency/fellowship grads who didn’t get a job out of their training. And the thing is those unemployed pharmacists stay in the denominator of pharmacists looking for a job every year they are unemployed. So if you had a 20% unemployment rate in 2019 that goes at run rate, then the unemployment rate in 2020 is 20% + the proportion of grads who haven’t found a job yet in 2019, and it builds on itself year over year.As Gombrich mentioned, your methods are flawed. They do not take into account the number of pharmacists leaving the profession (retirement/death/disability/career changes).
edited: realized the numbers do take into account new jobs/positions.
46 stores won’t employ 200 pharmacists. Or do you think they average over 4 pharmacists per store? And projections for the entire pharmacy market accounts for some pharmacies closing. Or do you think the projections assume that no pharmacy will close down in that time frame? So there is really no need to blow it out of proportion.
Although considering that CVS just announced a more profitable quarter then expected it is depressing to see that they are following that up by closing some stores.
46 stores won’t employ 200 pharmacists. Or do you think they average over 4 pharmacists per store? And projections for the entire pharmacy market accounts for some pharmacies closing. Or do you think the projections assume that no pharmacy will close down in that time frame? So there is really no need to blow it out of proportion.
Although considering that CVS just announced a more profitable quarter then expected it is depressing to see that they are following that up by closing some stores.
I was quoting someone else’s number but I think it’s plausible. Consider that each pharmacy would have 1 PIC and at least 1 -2 staff pharmacists so that would be 92+ pharmacists off the bat. Then you get into the part time floater pool— is there usually a ratio of floaters they hire with no guaranteed hours per store/district? If it’s 1:1 then that’s another 92+ part time pharmacists that are implicated. So that’s 184+ not including DMs and other mid-level managerial positions that can be axed as a result of store closures.
Given that there are 15,000 new grads for 1,500 new positions each year and maybe 20-30% of pharmacists “stalling” for a job by doing postgraduate training, I’d imagine that the true unemployment rate (if you don’t count residency/fellowship as real employment) is easily 50% each year. So it is not far-fetched that we might be at 80% unemployment over the next couple of years. Obviously people are trying to do things to absorb the oversupply of pharmacists like breaking down full time positions into part time positions and creating PGY-3’s, but at some point the bubble is going to burst.
Here is the estimated separations for pharmacists and various healthcare workers. They are estimating 7,400 pharmacists exit the labor force each year along with another 6,200 pharmacists transferring to other jobs. Which results in a total opening of 15,300 jobs per year when you add in the 1,700 new jobs each year. Whether or not 13,000 pharmacists leave the profession each year is going to be highly sensitive to the state of the economy, stock market, and working conditions.