Decline in Applications? Or ?

[RunnerDad]

I'm a believer in crowdsourced platforms like CycleTrack.org, and it is extremely hard for me to believe fewer people are using these sites than previous years. Are people just slow to enter their data, or are application numbers down? Every school on CycleTrack is showing a decline of 20% or more in their secondaries sent out, with most schools' historical data showing a dramatic dropoff after mid-July (i.e., not going to make up those numbers later). What do y'all think?

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[ClashRoyaleKing]

Yes, fewer people are using the platforms. I tried using it last year, and I remember thinking, "They want all this information for EACH school?" I did not submit the data for any schools I applied to.

 

[wysdoc]

I'm a believer in crowdsourced platforms like CycleTrack.org, and it is extremely hard for me to believe fewer people are using these sites than previous years. Are people just slow to enter their data, or are application numbers down? Every school on CycleTrack is showing a decline of 20% or more in their secondaries sent out, with most schools' historical data showing a dramatic dropoff after mid-July (i.e., not going to make up those numbers later). What do y'all think?

AMCAS schools are barely starting to send out secondaries so it's too early to draw any kind of data conclusions.
The only total numbers I trust are the data from AMCAS and TMDSAS as to numbers of completed applications.
Some applicants start an application and never turn it in, and the ones who mystify me are the ones who submit a primary but never complete their secondaries.

Many of the AMCAS data tables are aggregate data across 3 years. AMCAS data tables include TMDSAS applicants.

Here is the one table I could find that lists total applicants, acceptants, and matriculants by single year only.
The 'Fauci effect' of a huge increase of applicants in 2021-2022 has reverted to a more typical number.

 

[Mr.Smile12]

People are more concerned about their data privacy in some ways and not so much in others (give TT or the PRC your data, including facial recognition (filters) or possible clues for passwords/phrases...). You can't consider anything volunteered here or any other forum as a scientific sample of the entire application pool. Crowdsourcing was much cooler over 10 years ago when people realized the power of such data. Nowadays, people yawn at wikis and don't seem to want to put in effort to get insights as output. And that's a shame... we're thinking AI is going to give us the magic information for us, even if it completely makes the data up.

As for applicants who just submit primaries and never follow up with secondaries, my experiences with tracking the data (even some real-time tracking) suggest some plausible themes to me (or a combination):

• Got an offer of a waitlist from the previous cycle.
• Got an offer for a different program outside of AMCAS or AACOMAS (say, offered to law school, masters program, etc.)
• Financial circumstances (not enough money, needs to spend money elsewhere in their lives/families)
• Personal/family circumstances or emergencies (see financial circumstances)
• Bombed the MCAT or another SJT or unable to take the exams to continue
• Prioritized their school list (like they sent primaries to 70 schools but only completed 10): more for my count to show how many applications considered our programs a "throwaway."

Do the tables note how many AMCAS/TMDSAS applications were undelivered (which would not count as "submitted") or officially withdrawn?

I do think that applications are declining overall across all graduate programs because fewer people are "traditionally" graduating from college. The decline is mitigated by how many non-trads are applying (suggested by Liaison at a conference I virtually attended).

ADDED: There seems to be a pattern where applicants are applying to way too many more schools (or residency programs). I agree with @ClashRoyaleKing that they may just put in partial data rather than their entire list because it just takes way too much time to input every one of the 70 schools they submitted... so they only put in 2 or 3.

 

[Goro]

I'm a believer in crowdsourced platforms like CycleTrack.org, and it is extremely hard for me to believe fewer people are using these sites than previous years. Are people just slow to enter their data, or are application numbers down? Every school on CycleTrack is showing a decline of 20% or more in their secondaries sent out, with most schools' historical data showing a dramatic dropoff after mid-July (i.e., not going to make up those numbers later). What do y'all think?

Applications are indeed down to medical schools nationwide.

That's because we're seeing the end of a bulge in this generation of students.

Fewer men are also applying to college, on top of that. This translates into the fact that medical school classes now have more women than men.

 

[RunnerDad]

Applications are indeed down to medical schools nationwide.

That's because we're seeing the end of a bulge in this generation of students.

Fewer men are also applying to college, on top of that. This translates into the fact that medical school classes now have more women than men.

This makes a lot of sense. Distressing, in my opinion, but reflective of the socio-political environment. I am really happy to see more women in medical school, considering that only 10 years ago the ratio of men to women medical applicants was 55/45. Now it's flipped.

Not to light a fire, but I am really saddened at the impact that abortion bans will have on people's willingness to go to medical school and/or apply to residencies in states that prohibit this significant portion of OBGYN practice. I know that doesn't fully account for the drop in male medical school applications, so much as it may account for the increase in female applicants, but I can't help but wonder what the long term impact will be for women's health in 1/4 to 1/3 of our states in the next 10-20 years.

 

[Mr.Smile12]

This makes a lot of sense. Distressing, in my opinion, but reflective of the socio-political environment. I am really happy to see more women in medical school, considering that only 10 years ago the ratio of men to women medical applicants was 55/45. Now it's flipped.

Not to light a fire, but I am really saddened at the impact that abortion bans will have on people's willingness to go to medical school and/or apply to residencies in states that prohibit this significant portion of OBGYN practice. I know that doesn't fully account for the drop in male medical school applications, so much as it may account for the increase in female applicants, but I can't help but wonder what the long term impact will be for women's health in 1/4 to 1/3 of our states in the next 10-20 years.

My opinion: It is disheartening, especially since such disparities have existed between states for decades already. Abortion bans were in place 50 years before, and the history of OB/GYN isn't pristine (thanks to it being male-dominated then). Disrupting the social infrastructure is too radical ("socialist") to alleviate the healthcare disparities, and the next generation of healthcare workers will face the fact that it will take 7 generations of effort to make things better. Not allowing our students to understand it ("no DEI, no 1619 project") will only mean it will take 10 generations.

 

[ddhopeful]

I'm a believer in crowdsourced platforms like CycleTrack.org, and it is extremely hard for me to believe fewer people are using these sites than previous years. Are people just slow to enter their data, or are application numbers down? Every school on CycleTrack is showing a decline of 20% or more in their secondaries sent out, with most schools' historical data showing a dramatic dropoff after mid-July (i.e., not going to make up those numbers later). What do y'all think?

A larger percentage of people are applying to MD/PhD and secondaries for that are sent out later.

 

[ddhopeful]

This makes a lot of sense. Distressing, in my opinion, but reflective of the socio-political environment. I am really happy to see more women in medical school, considering that only 10 years ago the ratio of men to women medical applicants was 55/45. Now it's flipped.

Not to light a fire, but I am really saddened at the impact that abortion bans will have on people's willingness to go to medical school and/or apply to residencies in states that prohibit this significant portion of OBGYN practice. I know that doesn't fully account for the drop in male medical school applications, so much as it may account for the increase in female applicants, but I can't help but wonder what the long term impact will be for women's health in 1/4 to 1/3 of our states in the next 10-20 years.

I have also heard that a larger percentage of regular ORMs are either switching out of premed or not pursuing a premed major because acceptance rates for regular ORMs continue to decline and have reached precipitously low levels.

 

[ddhopeful]

This makes a lot of sense. Distressing, in my opinion, but reflective of the socio-political environment. I am really happy to see more women in medical school, considering that only 10 years ago the ratio of men to women medical applicants was 55/45. Now it's flipped.

Not to light a fire, but I am really saddened at the impact that abortion bans will have on people's willingness to go to medical school and/or apply to residencies in states that prohibit this significant portion of OBGYN practice. I know that doesn't fully account for the drop in male medical school applications, so much as it may account for the increase in female applicants, but I can't help but wonder what the long term impact will be for women's health in 1/4 to 1/3 of our states in the next 10-20 years.

If abortion bans are contributing to the increase in female applicants to medical school, you should start seeing a corresponding increase in female applicants to OB/GYN residencies. Also, OB/GYN residency applications in states that restrict abortion should go down. These trends are worth monitoring.

 

[Mr.Smile12]

I have also heard that a larger percentage of regular ORMs are either switching out of premed or not pursuing a premed major because acceptance rates for regular ORMs continue to decline and have reached precipitously low levels.

The data don't suggest that Asian applicant acceptance rates are any lower than other majority groups.

No endorsement implied:

Medical School Acceptance Rates by Race (2024): Does Ethnicity Play a Role? — Shemmassian Academic Consulting

Learn how much race matters when applying to medical schools and how diversity is achieved through admissions

www.shemmassianconsulting.com

Old report

Figure 6. Percentage of acceptees to U.S. medical schools by race/ethnicity (alone), academic year 2018-2019

Figure 6 illustrates the percentage of accepted applicants by race/ethnicity.

www.aamc.org

 

[ddhopeful]

The data don't suggest that Asian applicant acceptance rates are any lower than other majority groups.

No endorsement implied:

Medical School Acceptance Rates by Race (2024): Does Ethnicity Play a Role? — Shemmassian Academic Consulting

Learn how much race matters when applying to medical schools and how diversity is achieved through admissions

www.shemmassianconsulting.com

Old report

Figure 6. Percentage of acceptees to U.S. medical schools by race/ethnicity (alone), academic year 2018-2019

Figure 6 illustrates the percentage of accepted applicants by race/ethnicity.

www.aamc.org

Not all regular ORM applicants are Asian? I said regular ORMs, didn't say specifically Asian. Secondly, trends take a few years to impact decisions that students make in undergrad. It could very well be that although regular ORM (including Asian) acceptance rates may have stabilized, the perceived low level is deterring regular ORM undergrad students from pursuing premed.

Since you mentioned Asian, many who I know switched out of premed to pursue a major such as Computer Science because the job market was great in 2021 to early 2023. Now there are far fewer software jobs and hearing that, the Asian students in undergrad or entering undergrad may pursue premed. Even those that may have taken many CS courses may beef up their premed credentials by doing research projects in computational biology.

 

[ddhopeful]

The data don't suggest that Asian applicant acceptance rates are any lower than other majority groups.

No endorsement implied:

Medical School Acceptance Rates by Race (2024): Does Ethnicity Play a Role? — Shemmassian Academic Consulting

Learn how much race matters when applying to medical schools and how diversity is achieved through admissions

www.shemmassianconsulting.com

Old report

Figure 6. Percentage of acceptees to U.S. medical schools by race/ethnicity (alone), academic year 2018-2019

Figure 6 illustrates the percentage of accepted applicants by race/ethnicity.

www.aamc.org

Does the data in the Shemmassian article include MD and DO or only MD?

 

[Mr.Smile12]

Not all regular ORM applicants are Asian? I said regular ORMs, didn't say specifically Asian. Secondly, trends take a few years to impact decisions that students make in undergrad. It could very well be that although regular ORM (including Asian) acceptance rates may have stabilized, the perceived low level is deterring regular ORM undergrad students from pursuing premed.

Since you mentioned Asian, many who I know switched out of premed to pursue a major such as Computer Science because the job market was great in 2021 to early 2023. Now there are far fewer software jobs and hearing that, the Asian students in undergrad or entering undergrad may pursue premed. Even those that may have taken many CS courses may beef up their premed credentials by doing research projects in computational biology.

Well, ORM's do include MENAs but they are classified as White.

"Overrepresented Minorities": A Brief History - SDN

The Student Doctor Network provides free tools, resources, and advising services to help students become health professionals.

www.studentdoctor.net

Regardless, the aggregate data does not agree with the anecdotal statement. It also doesn't follow with other health professional careers. We aren't seeing them flee to other health professional careers like dentistry, vet med, optometry, pharmacy, or podiatry. Those pools are definitely in a decline. Again, if you're saying people aren't staying in premed, they have to go somewhere. Law school? I don't think so. Taking growth years? Everyone's seeing that and doing that, so I don't see a disproportionate number of ORMs doing this and to make it causative to being discouraged from pursuing medicine is without evidence.

But yes, about CS jobs... if you love layoffs...

Computer Science Students Face a Shrinking Big Tech Job Market (Published 2022)

A new reality is setting in for students and recent graduates who spent years honing themselves for careers at the largest tech companies.

www.nytimes.com

The problem is that computational biology skills are not directly translatable to medical knowledge. There are a few schools that are trying to take advantage, but even in our unscientific survey of premeds here, there is not a flood of CS students or former employees applying to medical school. It feels the same to me over the last 10+ years.

 

[Mr.Smile12]

Does the data in the Shemmassian article include MD and DO or only MD?

The article only cites AAMC data. They have the link in the article.

 

[ddhopeful]

Well, ORM's do include MENAs but they are classified as White.

"Overrepresented Minorities": A Brief History - SDN

The Student Doctor Network provides free tools, resources, and advising services to help students become health professionals.

www.studentdoctor.net

Regardless, the aggregate data does not agree with the anecdotal statement. It also doesn't follow with other health professional careers. We aren't seeing them flee to other health professional careers like dentistry, vet med, optometry, pharmacy, or podiatry. Those pools are definitely in a decline. Again, if you're saying people aren't staying in premed, they have to go somewhere. Law school? I don't think so. Taking growth years? Everyone's seeing that and doing that, so I don't see a disproportionate number of ORMs doing this and to make it causative to being discouraged from pursuing medicine is without evidence.

But yes, about CS jobs... if you love layoffs...

Computer Science Students Face a Shrinking Big Tech Job Market (Published 2022)

A new reality is setting in for students and recent graduates who spent years honing themselves for careers at the largest tech companies.

www.nytimes.com

The problem is that computational biology skills are not directly translatable to medical knowledge. There are a few schools that are trying to take advantage, but even in our unscientific survey of premeds here, there is not a flood of CS students or former employees applying to medical school. It feels the same to me over the last 10+ years.

If there is/will be a substantial increase in CS students switching to premed, you will see the data in a few years, not necessarily right away. Let’s wait and see…..

 

[ddhopeful]

The data don't suggest that Asian applicant acceptance rates are any lower than other majority groups.

No endorsement implied:

Medical School Acceptance Rates by Race (2024): Does Ethnicity Play a Role? — Shemmassian Academic Consulting

Learn how much race matters when applying to medical schools and how diversity is achieved through admissions

www.shemmassianconsulting.com

Old report

Figure 6. Percentage of acceptees to U.S. medical schools by race/ethnicity (alone), academic year 2018-2019

Figure 6 illustrates the percentage of accepted applicants by race/ethnicity.

www.aamc.org

It’s not my intent to light a fire but the MD acceptance rate for regular ORMs being comparable to other racial groups/ethnicities is not very encouraging to prospective ORM MD applicants, considering that on average they have higher stats and not necessarily weaker clinical or research experiences compared to other groups.

 

[LizzyM]

It’s not my intent to light a fire but the MD acceptance rate for regular ORMs being comparable to other racial groups/ethnicities is not very encouraging to prospective ORM MD applicants, considering that on average they have higher stats and not necessarily weaker clinical or research experiences compared to other groups.

Are higher stats "better" or just a measure of financial resources? What if we had a floor for stats (you must have MCAT of at least X and GPA of at least X where X is the inflection point where association between scores and passing Step 1 flatten out) and then selected by lottery? We'd expect the sample selected to be representative of the underlying pool meaning that ORM would be no more, or less, likely to be chosen.

Would you apply if you knew you had a 43% chance of being admitted?

 

[ddhopeful]

Are higher stats "better" or just a measure of financial resources? What if we had a floor for stats (you must have MCAT of at least X and GPA of at least X where X is the inflection point where association between scores and passing Step 1 flatten out) and then selected by lottery? We'd expect the sample selected to be representative of the underlying pool meaning that ORM would be no more, or less, likely to be chosen.

Would you apply if you knew you had a 43% chance of being admitted?

I would apply if it were a true lottery. Also, I would work only hard enough to meet/exceed the stats floor. With better sleep and less stress, maybe mental health among med school students will improve too. I would imagine many will think along these lines.

 

[Mr.Smile12]

It’s not my intent to light a fire but the MD acceptance rate for regular ORMs being comparable to other racial groups/ethnicities is not very encouraging to prospective ORM MD applicants, considering that on average they have higher stats and not necessarily weaker clinical or research experiences compared to other groups.

I'm sorry, but the relatively lower acceptance rate for URMs persists and is still a concern for health equity. That will remain a cause for concern, and theories of change are being developed to address this disparity.

We are limited to the data that are available which does not group applicants into ORMs as you have tried to frame the argument. I'm not disagreeing that there are some issues, but you stated "a larger percentage of regular ORMs are either switching out of premed or not pursuing a premed major because acceptance rates for regular ORMs continue to decline and have reached precipitously low levels."

You have not shown evidence of point 1 (red) or point 2 (orange). So if you want to propagate rumor as fact, I want to see the data.

 

[Mr.Smile12]

I would apply if it were a true lottery. Also, I would work only hard enough to meet/exceed the stats floor. With better sleep and less stress, maybe mental health among med school students will improve too. I would imagine many will think along these lines.

Read

Rationales for a Lottery Among the Qualified to Select Medical Trainees: Decades of Dutch Experience

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

https://mededpublish.org/articles/7-271

 

[ddhopeful]

I'm sorry, but the relatively lower acceptance rate for URMs persists and is still a concern for health equity. That will remain a cause for concern, and theories of change are being developed to address this disparity.

We are limited to the data that are available which does not group applicants into ORMs as you have tried to frame the argument. I'm not disagreeing that there are some issues, but you stated "a larger percentage of regular ORMs are either switching out of premed or not pursuing a premed major because acceptance rates for regular ORMs continue to decline and have reached precipitously low levels."

You have not shown evidence of point 1 (red) or point 2 (orange). So if you want to propagate rumor as fact, I want to see the data.

You might disagree but an acceptance percentage of 48% for Asians is low in my eyes, considering their higher stats and comparable clinical & research experiences to other groups. Hence, I don’t need to provide any additional data than what you have already shared to buttress that statement/opinion.

Also, data to prove certain aspects can be harder to find because few will want to research and publish data that supports a less-than-popular narrative. In addition, trends of more or less people going in or out of premed or other fields may be dynamic and transient. For example, in 2021, a CS graduate on average was getting multiple job offers. Fast forward just 2 years and the situation has completely flipped. When the trends are so fast-changing, the time necessary for you to collect sufficient and conclusive data is not available. Sometimes, you have to make decisions based on anecdotal evidence. If you wait for conclusive data to be published, it may not happen or it may be too late.

 

[gyngyn]

Please stay on topic, folks.