Humans work with probabilities too. No one is ever sure exactly what is going what to happen. What we do is look at the situation and figure out what is likely to happen in our head (the probabilities), and then we act on the most likely scenarios. The way we figure out probabilities in our head is usually based on our personal experiences or data we've seen- the same way a computer would figure it out.
Then the computer has a flawed methodology as well. I'll admit that the human system isn't perfect, but if you're only basing your programming off past experiences, then it's not going to have the amazing skills you're proposing it will have.
Look, I really really want to end this argument so here's my final statement (for real this time). No one is going to replace humans completely any time soon. But computers can and will eventually be able to do a lot of the work humans do. So in the end we will need a lot fewer humans.
We'll still find something for those humans.
You were mocking me before, telling me that you don't see any grocery stores lying vacant..but if you actually look at the data of how many stores have closed you'll find that quite a few businesses have gone bankrupt because they can't compete with online retailers.
You'll notice I said grocery stores and not Best Buy or Blockbuster. I realize
some industries have been hit hard, but grocery stores are not one of them. The retail market will always exist for people who need an item now, or for the many items that are too expensive to ship individually or that would require specialty shipping.
You keep proposing these computer totalitarian solutions that are completely unrealistic. Yes, computers will become more integrated. No, there won't be a bunch of unemployed humans watching the computers doing all the work. Who exactly do you think works at these online retailers? Oh right, EMPLOYEES.
Target is also seriously concerned. They just sent a letter out to their investors about how they're going to fight the practice of 'showrooming' - people coming into their stores to look at items and then buying them cheaper online:
http://moneyland.time.com/2012/01/2...oom-for-the-stuff-you-buy-for-less-at-amazon/
Best Buy is a much bigger victim of that. Target is huge huge huge for parents/families, and there are quite a few things that are cheaper in the store than online (trust me, as a parent, we've looked). Amazon steals the market on high-priced items though, like cameras, TVs, computers, etc.
As for another example, let's look at the postal service: "The Internet has arguably hurt the postal service more than any other business. The drastic reduction in mail delivery has cost thousands of jobs in delivery and caused many post office closures around the country. Now, mail sorting jobs are set to disappear as a new automated system is implemented. Between 2008 and 2018, more than 54,500 jobs, or about 30 percent of current positions, are expected to vanish."
When you buy something online, how does it get to you? What's happening with UPS/FedEx?
I could go on and on, but I'll stop there.
As you can see these are real consequences happening today.
So the bottom line is, computer technology is going to change the game of medicine. When will it happen? I don't know. But it will gradually happen.
The end.
Jobs change. They don't really go away. Unemployment shuffles around, but it's never been 75%, nor will it be.
There will be no end.