Does LizyM score still work for "unbalanced" stats?

[surftheiop]

How well does the LizyM spreadsheet hold when your stats are somewhat unbalanced?

This post is more about the score system in general than my specific case, but if there's one thing engineering taught me its that plugging in sample numbers can help things make more sense.

I will have around 3.5 and made 38 MCAT. (BioEngineer)

Is that really just as competitive as the person with a 3.9 and 34? Or does the higher MCAT score not help so much once you hit a certain point?

Should a few points be subtracted if the LizyM score comes from low GPA, high MCAT?

Also any approximates of how many LizyM points to subtract for having less clinical volunteering/shadowing than average? For example, I have maybe 60 hours volunteering and 60 shadowing.
( I do have other EC's and leadership roles, but they aren't particularly service oriented)

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[NickNaylor]

The LizzyM scheme isn't a 100% correct system. I think you're putting too much stock into it. In my not-so-useful opinion, I think a 3.5/38 is nearly equivalent to a 3.9/34, but everyone's thoughts on this will vary widely.

 

[apumic]

If you're using the full 2.x spreadsheet (2.6x was the last version released before it was taken down, I believe... I don't think I ever released 2.70), it should hold pretty well, since the program adjusts based on percentile rank and not a raw 1:1 MCAT:GPA ratio. If you are calculating it all yourself then it's not going to work out so well. Ultimately, though, it's all approximations anyway (don't put so much trust in it). 3.5/38 is moderately competitive. The 38 makes you pretty strong despite the 3.5. MCAT is slightly more important than GPA (like ~1.2:1 in that range -- and that was very much a guesstimate).

 

[chickensandwich]

for your specific example, if you looked at aamc stats, http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/applicantmatriculant/table24-mcatgpa-grid-3yrs-app-accpt.htm, you'll see that around 76% of 38/3.5 applicants are accepted, vs 89% for 34/3.9. 36/3.7 has 86%.

overall, LizzyM scores are just estimates and while it's always nice to have above average above for both, you did a great job balancing a slightly below avg gpa with a greatly above avg mcat. i also think when that's the case, schools tend to consider your major and difficulty of classes more. either way, i'd say you're in pretty good shape gpa/mcat-wise and your success will depend much more on your ecs/ps/lors at this point.

 

[FutureScaresMe]

The LizzyM scheme isn't a 100% correct system. I think you're putting too much stock into it. In my not-so-useful opinion, I think a 3.5/38 is nearly equivalent to a 3.9/34, but everyone's thoughts on this will vary widely.

3.9 >>> 3.5

38 > 34

A 0.4 GPA difference is far more significant than 4 MCAT "points" at the upper spectrum of scores. But you're right, people do seem to weigh both differently.

 

[surftheiop]

If you're using the full 2.x spreadsheet (2.6x was the last version released before it was taken down, I believe... I don't think I ever released 2.70), it should hold pretty well, since the program adjusts based on percentile rank and not a raw 1:1 MCAT:GPA ratio. If you are calculating it all yourself then it's not going to work out so well. Ultimately, though, it's all approximations anyway (don't put so much trust in it). 3.5/38 is moderately competitive. The 38 makes you pretty strong despite the 3.5. MCAT is slightly more important than GPA (like ~1.2:1 in that range -- and that was very much a guesstimate).

I think I have the newest one (where you type in research, letter recs, etc.) Whats the deal with the chances? How is some place a safety if its only listing it as %10 acceptance?

 

[CaliGirl14]

Where can one still get this sacred spreadsheet?

 

[apumic]

I think I have the newest one (where you type in research, letter recs, etc.) Whats the deal with the chances? How is some place a safety if its only listing it as %10 acceptance?

It's "safe" in a relative sense of the word. If most schools would only give you a 5% chance at getting in and one gives you an 8% chance, it is, relatively speaking, a "safe" bet. Is it really "safe"? Heck no. But is it more safe than the average (5% chance)? Absolutely.
Remember! The base rate of acceptance is about 45% -- and that's for any school to accept you.

 

[apumic]

Where can one still get this sacred spreadsheet?

Officially? You can't. At this point, the only way to get it is to find someone who can email it to you. Unfortunately, the AAMC got all p*ssy about it using MSAR data and it had to be removed. I'd like to create a version lacking all that data at some pt but I haven't really finished the project yet. Unfortunately, any such thing would be pretty limited by the exclusion of so much data.

 

[7starmantis]

Officially? You can't. At this point, the only way to get it is to find someone who can email it to you. Unfortunately, the AAMC got all p*ssy about it using MSAR data and it had to be removed. I'd like to create a version lacking all that data at some pt but I haven't really finished the project yet. Unfortunately, any such thing would be pretty limited by the exclusion of so much data.

So are there people on this thread *wink* who have it and are willing to email it?

 

[45408]

the "LizzyM score" is not a rule. "They're more like guidelines."

What does it matter anyways? Do the best you can.

 

[surftheiop]

the "LizzyM score" is not a rule. "They're more like guidelines."

What does it matter anyways? Do the best you can.

matters if I spend the effort to apply to the top 25 schools, where it says "Go For It", but with a 3.5 doesn't seem like I would have much of a chance

 

[yearn4ivy]

Officially? You can't. At this point, the only way to get it is to find someone who can email it to you. Unfortunately, the AAMC got all p*ssy about it using MSAR data and it had to be removed. I'd like to create a version lacking all that data at some pt but I haven't really finished the project yet. Unfortunately, any such thing would be pretty limited by the exclusion of so much data.

Well the LizzyM spreadsheet provided no economic gain to anyone. I wonder if AAMC will give permission to use their data. I guess they just want premed students to pay $25 to cover cost for data collection and publishing.

 

[MaryLennox]

matters if I spend the effort to apply to the top 25 schools, where it says "Go For It", but with a 3.5 doesn't seem like I would have much of a chance

i would apply to a few reach schools, the ones you really love, but definitely don't go too heavy on them. my stats are a bit lower than yours, and i didnt apply as early as i could have, so YMMV. but overall i am glad i didn't spend more money on top 25 schools. i got the feeling that the low GPA keeps you out more than the high MCAT gets you in (at high rank schools.) mid tier schools, they will love you. apply accordingly and EARLY!!!

 

[sportsfreak]

So are there people on this thread *wink* who have it and are willing to email it?

sure

 

[7starmantis]

matters if I spend the effort to apply to the top 25 schools, where it says "Go For It", but with a 3.5 doesn't seem like I would have much of a chance

I wouldn't make decisions on where to apply based on anyone else's ideas beyond your own. Make your own decisions and go for it. Dont apply to schools based on spreadsheets or anonymous internet advice. Just me though.

For the record I was listed on the spreadsheet as either long shot (where I will be attending) or hopeful at all three of the schools I received pre-match acceptances (MD) to. That being said, its a great tool, just use some common sense and dont let others make your decisions for you. Its just a tool, its not meant to decide things for you. Its also based on numbers alone and we all know there are more to acceptances and applicants than numbers.

 

[45408]

matters if I spend the effort to apply to the top 25 schools, where it says "Go For It", but with a 3.5 doesn't seem like I would have much of a chance

So get the MSAR, compare your grades/MCAT with their averages, and go from there. The LizzyM score is useful, but she's only a representative of one single school. She's probably only assuming what other schools use as their metric of achievement.

 

[fastfingers]

if anybody would have the newest version that includes the EC stuff, please pm me. Thanks.

I've used a version from last year and it seems to be pretty generous. I had info like 3.9 with a 32 MCAT and it had me competitive to top tier schools.

 

[LizzyM]

I thought up the LizzyM score as a way for applicants to determine if their stats were reasonably well matched with specific schools. I came up with it a few years ago after seeing the grief of applicants who thought that applying broadly with a 3.4/30 was to apply to 15 of the top 20 schools.

It is only a measure of one's academic performance in comparison with the applicants who were admitted (or who matriculated) in the previous year. It will give you an idea of where you are most likely to be invited to interview. What happens at interview really can't fit into a formula.

 

[surftheiop]

Thanks for the advice all, I guess to be honest its not that big of a deal to me because there are probably only 3 top 25 schools I would actually want to go to, so I'll just apply to them regardless of my chances and then focus on my state schools.

The point of this thread really was more just general curiosity about the LizzyM score and that seems to have been addressed very well

It will give you an idea of where you are most likely to be invited to interview. What happens at interview really can't fit into a formula.

Is this really true at most schools? I've been told by people at several schools that they explicitly turn your interview performance into a number based on a worksheet done by interviewer and plug that into their overall formula.

 

[LizzyM]

I've been told by people at several schools that they explicitly turn your interview performance into a number based on a worksheet done by interviewer and plug that into their overall formula.

There may be a way of quantifying interview performance but you do not have that data at the time that you submit your applications. The point of the LizzyM score is to narrow down the long list of medical schools in the US to a short list where you have a decent shot of getting an interview.

 

[surftheiop]

There may be a way of quantifying interview performance but you do not have that data at the time that you submit your applications. The point of the LizzyM score is to narrow down the long list of medical schools in the US to a short list where you have a decent shot of getting an interview.

Makes sense, thanks alot for the contribution. Makes our lives alot less confusing

 

[kmd34]

Very good point. From the AAMC's last three years (2005 to 2007) Acceptance rate data greed based on MCAT and GPA, I prepared statistical model with two variables; cGPA and Total MCAT.

! The US Medical school Acceptance rate model;
!Y1 = Accepatance rate, %;
!X1= Cummulative GPA;
!X2= Total MCAT;

Y1 = -191.684 + 40.86111*X1 + 3.288348*X2;

If plug in 3.5 GPA and 38 MCAT, Acceptance rate would be 76.28%
3.9 GPA and 34 MCAT would have 79.47%

It looks like 3.9 GPA/34 MCAT is better than 3.5 GPA/38 MCAT

Based on this model 1 MCAT = 0.08 GPA weigh

I hope this will help.

How well does the LizyM spreadsheet hold when your stats are somewhat unbalanced?

This post is more about the score system in general than my specific case, but if there's one thing engineering taught me its that plugging in sample numbers can help things make more sense.

I will have around 3.5 and made 38 MCAT. (BioEngineer)

Is that really just as competitive as the person with a 3.9 and 34? Or does the higher MCAT score not help so much once you hit a certain point?

Should a few points be subtracted if the LizyM score comes from low GPA, high MCAT?

Also any approximates of how many LizyM points to subtract for having less clinical volunteering/shadowing than average? For example, I have maybe 60 hours volunteering and 60 shadowing.
( I do have other EC's and leadership roles, but they aren't particularly service oriented)

 

[surftheiop]

Very good point. From the AAMC's last three years (2005 to 2007) Acceptance rate data greed based on MCAT and GPA, I prepared statistical model with two variables; cGPA and Total MCAT.

! The US Medical school Acceptance rate model;
!Y1 = Accepatance rate, %;
!X1= Cummulative GPA;
!X2= Total MCAT;

Y1 = -191.684 + 40.86111*X1 + 3.288348*X2;

If plug in 3.5 GPA and 38 MCAT, Acceptance rate would be 76.28%
3.9 GPA and 34 MCAT would have 79.47%

It looks like 3.9 GPA/34 MCAT is better than 3.5 GPA/38 MCAT

Based on this model 1 MCAT = 0.08 GPA weigh

I hope this will help.

gotta love stats people!

 

[StormingWynn]

very good point. From the aamc's last three years (2005 to 2007) acceptance rate data greed based on mcat and gpa, i prepared statistical model with two variables; cgpa and total mcat.

! The us medical school acceptance rate model;
!y1 = accepatance rate, %;
!x1= cummulative gpa;
!x2= total mcat;

y1 = -191.684 + 40.86111*x1 + 3.288348*x2;

if plug in 3.5 gpa and 38 mcat, acceptance rate would be 76.28%
3.9 gpa and 34 mcat would have 79.47%

it looks like 3.9 gpa/34 mcat is better than 3.5 gpa/38 mcat

based on this model 1 mcat = 0.08 gpa weigh

i hope this will help.

zomg!!!!11!!1!twelve!!!