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[Kam325]

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She lied about a couple things that she probably would have been better off not lying about, so I'm comfortable with thinking she probably lied about being injured. But that doesn't explain BBC's injury. Hmmm. Wish they weren't all dead.

Thinking about this, BBC probably withdrew since she was affiliation seer and her ability was important enough to withdraw to use and important enough to volunteer to tithe to hide.

 

[WildZoo]

Thinking about this, BBC probably withdrew since she was affiliation seer and her ability was important enough to withdraw to use and important enough to volunteer to tithe to hide.

Fair enough

 

[WildZoo]

I still have VMH near the top of my list so I may be voting that direction today if nobody has any strong reason to trust her.

 

[WildZoo]

I'm going to go back and look at some of the earlier lynches now that we know the affiliation of some of the people who were up for lynch. Also read through Gwen's posts to look for clues. And see if BBC left any bread crumbs, though I don't think she posted much so probably won't find anything there.

 

[PrincessButterCup]

My injury prevented me from using my ability

 

[WildZoo]

Thoughts from Day 1

Actually, I was wondering if there was at least one wolf in my group. If our ability thief is a wolf, they would then know that I wasn't tithing/volunteering my ability last night which would make me a better target for thievery.

Has anybody had any run-is with the ability thief lately? Hopefully I didn't just miss this person dying. So...wolf or villager, they seem to be lying low and choosing not to use the ability. We still don't know why it didn't work on FB either, assuming an attempt was actually made on her. And we have that reason to continue looking into that hold in addition to the possible tithe discrepancy.

Souper Official Day 1 Lynch tally
SOV 1 (LIS)
LIS 1 (SOV)
Kata 3 (Lupin, MJ, Deva)
Lupin 2 (html, hmoo)
FFM 3 (RM, BBC, Kam)
STL 1 (AM)
html 3 (Guis, MQ, vethead)
DVMD 3 (PBC, LotF, FFM)
AM 1 (Sandy)
MQ 1 (Jilary)

Holy ties Batman!
19/27 votes
Lynch deadline 9PM real time/10PM East coast weirdo time

@Filly Bay
@Promethean
@DVMDream
@dyachei
@Gwenevre
@katashark
@Abney
@WildZoo

Edited cuz super-ninja'd

This was the tally about 20 minutes before lynch ended. A good number of those voting for people not in the lead are confirmed villagers. Two are people who I think are villagers - LIS and AM. The former based on feels, the latter based on endorsement from Lupin and some things she has done that I think would be just dumb for a wolf to do. No guarantee that any of the leaders in that lynch were wolves, but among those voting for the leaders I do see some of my current top suspects - Deva, RM, VMH, FFM.

FINAL Day 1 Lynch tally
SOV 1 (LIS)
LIS 1 (SOV)
Kata 2 (MJ, Deva)
Lupin 2 (html, hmoo)
FFM 3 (RM, BBC, Kam)
STL 1 (AM)
html 5 (Guis, MQ, vethead, Lupin, Abney)
DVMD 2 (PBC, LotF)
AM 1 (Sandy)
MQ 2 (Jilary, Gwen)
LotF 4 (dy, DVMD, FB, FFM)

24/27 votes
Missing:
@katashark @WildZoo @Promethean

And the final tally for reference. We know that the top two candidates were villagers. In my mind there is some possibility that#3 (FFM) could be a wolf, but it was day 1, so like I said very good chance we didn't have a wolf as a candidate at all. He is the only one with more than 2 votes who has never been brought up again so I wanted to make sure we have good reasons for that.

But, there is also the consideration of Gwen's vote in this scenario. If a wolf is up there among the 4 leaders with 20 minutes to go, does she make that throaway vote on MQ? Or does she hop on one of the other wagons to try to push things?

 

[Kam325]

But, there is also the consideration of Gwen's vote in this scenario. If a wolf is up there among the 4 leaders with 20 minutes to go, does she make that throaway vote on MQ? Or does she hop on one of the other wagons to try to push things?

Gwen was still villager until Dy died, so I don't think her vote needs to influence the rest of your analysis.

 

[Lupin21]

Ability Thief: friend or foe?

N1- attempted to take FB's
N2- attempted theft of PBC's- prevented by shutters
N3- VMH
N4- BBC
N5- night cancelled
N6- ??

 

[WildZoo]

Gwen was still villager until Dy died, so I don't think her vote needs to influence the rest of your analysis.

Literally had just mentioned this earlier today and then I forgot. Wtf, me.

 

[WildZoo]

Ability Thief: friend or foe?

N1- attempted to take FB's
N2- attempted theft of PBC's- prevented by shutters
N3- VMH
N4- BBC
N5- night cancelled
N6- ??

Well considering they stole BBC's ability and then she ended up dead...

 

[WildZoo]

Also thank you lupin, as we know paying attention isn't always my strong suit, I didn't remember the thief being mentioned since the PBC fail

 

[Lupin21]

Also thank you lupin, as we know paying attention isn't always my strong suit, I didn't remember the thief being mentioned since the PBC fail

we also know that they didn't tithe since it has been used all the nights prior to n5. So unable to determine yet if rescinded or refused in the first place.

 

[Promethean]

Why would she have withdrawn the N1 tithe though? She was a villager at that time if she didn't convert until after dy died. I can't remember what Fort's tithe schedule was. We should look at who was supposed to tithe N2 and N4.

Did you really read her post? She didn't list you as a possible wolf at all. She was going through the options for rescinded tithes in your hold based on her theory (whether you think it's valid or not). She had you as the least likely wolf.

Re-reading, I see what you are saying. I saw it as listing suspects, but I see what she was getting at now.

 

[Lupin21]

I also find it of interest that no one besides MQ has died from the original Telgar hold. I like to leave my PM buddies alive as a wolf to gather info.

 

[Devastating]

I'm forgetting things already, were you not hit by thread?

Gonna have to go back and read those walls of text when I'm a little more awake. It's not a competition to see who can type the most, guys 😛

Nope, no thread injury. Unless it was mod forgotten.

 

[Promethean]

And here I was thinking you said yesterday you were 100% certain she's a villager.
If you want to lynch her so bad just do it, but bringing her up every other post, all without actually doing anything about it is getting distracting. Do you want us to focus on hunting wolves or not? Are you 100% sure she's a villager or not? And if not, why did you make it seem that way yesterday?

I was sure that the role she claimed was the role that SOV had seered, and that if SOV had seered an obvious wolf, SOV would have said so when he revealed the role. So, I took that to mean village, with great certainty.

I wasn't sure that Riders with dead Dragons were converted to wolves until after the Gwen lynch.

Gwen was undeniably village --- except she wasn't. That is what drove my speculation.

I didn't talk about DVMD for most of the game, only for the past 24 hours. Speculation is how we figure things out. Sometimes things we are sure of are still only half truths. I say things even if I don't think that they are immediately actionable, because I'm already injured (by Thread) and there is always the risk that I won't survive the nights. So, I don't want to keep any useful theories / information to myself.

It isn't to distract you. Feel free to disregard everything I say. It will still be there to look back on, if it turns out to have been relevant.

 

[Kam325]

I wasn't sure that Riders with dead Dragons were converted to wolves until after the Gwen lynch.

Just because it seems like this keeps getting skipped over:

Per the wiki:

"Salth died when his heart burst from overexertion, and Barnath, dragon of G'dened, son of D'ram, won the mating flight. Maddened by grief, T'kul attempted to murder F'lar in The White Dragon, but the Benden Weyrleader was ultimately stronger, and T'kul was killed. "

So could be a character specific conversion upon Dy's death?

We have discussed this in my hold...T'kul's Wikipedia page basically says he went crazy from his grief after the death of Salth, and attempted to kill F'lar. Other dragon riders get very depressed if their dragons die, but dont seem to "go bad". Hopefully Gwen's conversion was character specific, but we aren't entirely sure.

We aren't sure all riders are converted if their dragons die. The source material would suggest this may have been a mechanic specific to Gwen's character, T'Kul.

 

[guisantes]

I can't think of a recent game that I played in that had an ability thief (not saying much, because 1. I am forgetful and 2. I haven't played that many games), but when it's been present in games previously, how does it work? Can the ability thief generally use the stolen ability the night it is stolen or the next night?

 

[WildZoo]

I also find it of interest that no one besides MQ has died from the original Telgar hold. I like to leave my PM buddies alive as a wolf to gather info.

You know I could have sworn we had lost someone else but I guess it was only MQ...oh! It was that guis was attacked N1, so we were targeted two nights in a row. Anyway, you make a good point. I'm not getting particularly wolfy feels from any of the original members though.

 

[WildZoo]

Gathering info may or may not be relevant as I can say that there hasn't been much if anything shared in our hold PM that hasn't also been shared on thread. Having people around who trust you is a big deal though so I could see a wolf in our hold keeping it intact for that reason. But idk. I'm just not feeling it from my buddies (and this is where I remind everyone that when it comes to my feels, a second opinion is warranted in most cases).

 

[Promethean]

Just because it seems like this keeps getting skipped over:

We aren't sure all riders are converted if their dragons die. The source material would suggest this may have been a mechanic specific to Gwen's character, T'Kul.

True. We aren't sure of that. But it has been made clear that Dragons cannot be converted. If that was even a concern, it suggests to me that it isn't a mechanic specific to Gwen's character. There must be some wider risk of conversion if it needed to be said that Dragons were immune. Maybe it doesn't mean that all Riders are susceptible, but that is what I believe.

We know that if a Rider is killed, we lose the Dragon, too, to suicide and I believe that if a Dragon is killed, we keep the Rider, but they convert to evil.

I think that there were 3 bad guys to start, two of whom were wolves, one who was something else. That something else could read as village to a Seer.

A rider character whose Dragon was already dead at the start could be that something else. That is what I'm saying.

 

[WildZoo]

Nope, no thread injury. Unless it was mod forgotten.

Can you maybe ask for more detail on how you were injured?

 

[WildZoo]

True. We aren't sure of that. But it has been made clear that Dragons cannot be converted. If that was even a concern, it suggests to me that it isn't a mechanic specific to Gwen's character. There must be some wider risk of conversion if it needed to be said that Dragons were immune. Maybe it doesn't mean that all Riders are susceptible, but that is what I believe.

We know that if a Rider is killed, we lose the Dragon, too, to suicide and I believe that if a Dragon is killed, we keep the Rider, but they convert to evil.

I think that there were 3 bad guys to start, two of whom were wolves, one who was something else. That something else could read as village to a Seer.

A rider character whose Dragon was already dead at the start could be that something else. That is what I'm saying.

I would think it means that any player is susceptible to conversion if chosen by the wolves (how that sort of thing usually works), except dragons. So not that riders are any more susceptible than any of the other susceptible players. I doubt there are any other autoconverts.

I don't doubt that it is possible for a dragonless rider to be chaos or something, but would have to know more about the specific character.

 

[Promethean]

I would think it means that any player is susceptible to conversion if chosen by the wolves (how that sort of thing usually works), except dragons. So not that riders are any more susceptible than any of the other susceptible players. I doubt there are any other autoconverts.

I don't doubt that it is possible for a dragonless rider to be chaos or something, but would have to know more about the specific character.

And that is where my theory falls apart. Over the course of his entire life, he was more of a good person than a bad person. Which I admitted immediately after floating the idea.

Then again, T'ron was questionable, but turned out okay. I don't know if knowing the backstory of the characters is really meaningful, since the needs of balancing the game may have overridden remaining 100% faithful to the source material.

 

[Kam325]

I feel comfortable assuming, for the moment, that DVMD was a villager originally, and probably still was when she cancelled night. Certainly possible she has been or will be converted. But if we have 2 originals and 1 convert left right now, it should be easier to focus on rooting out our originals (aka those who don't have villager role claims and past village behavior to muck up the works) before we turn to the convert.

That said, I'm still comfortable sticking with RM pending any hard vouch or any info/suspicions about STB.

 

[Lupin21]

I feel comfortable assuming, for the moment, that DVMD was a villager originally, and probably still was when she cancelled night. Certainly possible she has been or will be converted. But if we have 2 originals and 1 convert left right now, it should be easier to focus on rooting out our originals (aka those who don't have villager role claims and past village behavior to muck up the works) before we turn to the convert.

That said, I'm still comfortable sticking with RM pending any hard vouch or any info/suspicions about STB.

RM is clean I believe as of last night.

 

[Kam325]

Unlynch RM

 

[Devastating]

Regarding the original baddies, I feel like there may be chaos included. What characters may be seen as chaotic? (Really Long shot, but what if the red star itself were a role in this game)

 

[Kam325]

Anyone have anything solid or solid-ish on STB? I'm reluctant to lynch her if she's village, but if RM is getting vouched for, she's my next most likely to have withdrawn her tithe in Ruatha.

For now, lynch VMH

 

[guisantes]

Ability Thief: friend or foe?

N1- attempted to take FB's
N2- attempted theft of PBC's- prevented by shutters
N3- VMH
N4- BBC
N5- night cancelled
N6- ??

My thoughts: IF the ability thief is a villager or chaos (not sure if this is common historically or not) and the ability thief is able to use the stolen ability the night after it is taken, then it's possible that VMH had her ability stolen on N3 and then used on N4. N4 was the only night we had 2 kills.

IF the ability thief is a wolf, or if the abilities are able to be used the night they are taken (which seems unlikely to me), then I have nothing. I think there is something to be learned by the double kill on N4 and no other night.

Lynch VMH

 

[Lupin21]

My thoughts: IF the ability thief is a villager or chaos (not sure if this is common historically or not) and the ability thief is able to use the stolen ability the night after it is taken, then it's possible that VMH had her ability stolen on N3 and then used on N4. N4 was the only night we had 2 kills.

IF the ability thief is a wolf, or if the abilities are able to be used the night they are taken (which seems unlikely to me), then I have nothing. I think there is something to be learned by the double kill on N4 and no other night.

Lynch VMH

last night was a double kill.

 

[guisantes]

last night was a double kill.

No, kata was BBC's dragon and committed suicide after the death of her rider. At least that's how I interpreted it.

 

[Devastating]

A dragon also dies when their rider is killed, so it's not exactly a 2-kill night but a two-birds-one-stone deal. Was n4 two kills a dragon and rider or two separate roles? On mobile and don't remember what day that was.

 

[guisantes]

A dragon also dies when their rider is killed, so it's not exactly a 2-kill night but a two-birds-one-stone deal. Was n4 two kills a dragon and rider or two separate roles? On mobile and don't remember what day that was.

Two separate....Sandy (rezzer) and LotF (item maker)

 

[Lupin21]

Kam, have you tithed your ability at any time?

 

[Kam325]

Kam, have you tithed your ability at any time?

Yes, I have.

 

[Abnerrs]

Can someone explain the vmh feeling? Is there any pieces of the puzzle that I'm not seeing because it seems mostly random tacked onto the end of lengthy explanations that don't seem to point at her?

 

[WildZoo]

Can someone explain the vmh feeling? Is there any pieces of the puzzle that I'm not seeing because it seems mostly random tacked onto the end of lengthy explanations that don't seem to point at her?

It's mostly feelings, just some things in her posts that set off little red flags for me, and nothing in the villager column for her. Bit if feels, bit of process of elimination.

Of course now I see that I haven't actually voted yet so lynch vmh

 

[Abnerrs]

It's mostly feelings, just some things in her posts that set off little red flags for me, and nothing in the villager column for her. Bit if feels, bit of process of elimination.

Of course now I see that I haven't actually voted yet so lynch vmh

Ah ok. I'll have to go back and reread her posts then

 

[Trilt]

Officialish Lynch Tally
RM () -
Promo (1) - DVMD
PBC (1) - Lupin
Vethed (3) - Kam, Guis, WZ

5/16 accounted for, lynch deadline 9pm CST/10pm EST.

 

[Lupin21]

BTW, has anyone been aware of a star chart item? The weed is also the last of the items I've heard of.

 

[Abnerrs]

It's mostly feelings, just some things in her posts that set off little red flags for me, and nothing in the villager column for her. Bit if feels, bit of process of elimination.

Of course now I see that I haven't actually voted yet so lynch vmh

Can you point in the direction of wolfy posts because I'm reading a whole lot of nothing.

 

[Devastating]

Ok, mods clarified that I was thread scored after all, it just got lost in results 🙂

 

[Lupin21]

Ok, mods clarified that I was thread scored after all, it just got lost in results 🙂

thread scored last night or in the mass attacks from N4?

 

[Lupin21]

Also, was there anyone besides FFM who had no ability until they were unlocked?

 

[WildZoo]

Ok, mods clarified that I was thread scored after all, it just got lost in results 🙂

@Kam325 does this throw off your numbers?

 

[LetItSnow]

lynch VMH because other people have suspicions and I'm like two days worth of thread reading behind.

 

[LetItSnow]

Hey, so bronze lizard, I couldn't do what you asked because I was <supposedly> injured last night. Thing is, I never got a message telling me I was injured previous to that, and I can't find it anywhere in thread or in the Hold thread, so ..... I dunno. All I got was that I couldn't complete my night action because of injury.

I've asked the mods to look into when/where/how I got injured, because other than that one message telling me I couldn't do last night's action, I have no record of it. Or I missed it in the main thread in a write-up. Or the mods goofed up.

 

[guisantes]

My thoughts: IF the ability thief is a villager or chaos (not sure if this is common historically or not) and the ability thief is able to use the stolen ability the night after it is taken, then it's possible that VMH had her ability stolen on N3 and then used on N4. N4 was the only night we had 2 kills.

IF the ability thief is a wolf, or if the abilities are able to be used the night they are taken (which seems unlikely to me), then I have nothing. I think there is something to be learned by the double kill on N4 and no other night.

Lynch VMH

@Abney this is my reasoning. It's the best I've got right now, but I'm still evaluating.

 

[Flim Flam Man]

Who is injured right now? I may be able to help. I can't keep track.