Dump everything, BUY GOLD?

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lol, i'm pretty sure that you weren't referencing my post specifically, but i must say that there's a big difference in making speculative, leveraged bets on commodity futures and making a (hopefully) long-term investment in a highly profitable company that might be undervalued. i'm feeling the pain though - my cost for the shares is about $65, and it's trading around $49 right now...ouch!

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No, it was jocomama talking about how you can listen to someone on commodities unless they're calling you from their boat in the Caribbean (that guy got paid ~$75million last year), and then your sarcastic energy quote. Just more on the sarcasm.
 
I think its safe to say that at least for the next few weeks, metals will not be a good investment.

They had a good, strong bull run for several months--up until the oil price crash.

Oil prices are expected to continue to fall at least for now. The price of metals are tied to the price of oil--so expect them to fall as the price of oil falls.

Good thing I got out of metals. I lost a little--then sold all my stuff. I didn't brave it out and stay in--which if I did--I would've lost big time.,
 
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Well, if prices are indeed dropping, then this would be the perfect time to invest in precious metals (by that, I mean buying and physically taking delivery of the metal, not stocks or longs/shorts).

So far, it's worked well for me.

The key for me is to hold onto it for a year or more to see if I can turn a profit. Actually, I probably want to accumulate it and hoard it for many years before selling.

misfit
 
if your holding period is many years (as it should be for most investments), then you will essentially lose money on this investment, barring a catastrophic event that makes gold prices shoot through the roof. historically, gold has only appreciated at the same rate as inflation, so if you were buying fair priced gold today for $1, it should be worth about $1 (in purchasing power; it could be like $50 total) 20 years later. but at this point, you're not buying fairly priced gold - it is still at a high. so i can't see how you'd profit. maybe i'm wrong - hopefully i'm not
 
Gold did well over the past 2 years. The price of oil and the devaluation of the dollar did much to fuel the bull run.

I jumped onto this bull run at the tail end--then the oil prices crashed. So I lost money--but pulled out before I lost too much.

So then I took some time to reevaluate what happened. Right now the price of metals (silver & gold) are almost directly tied to the price of oil.

So since I figured this out, I've been riding the volatility of the market to do some short term investments. For example--TRE-a silver mining company has had a lot of volatility--shooting between 4.60 to 5.50 every few days.

Its not exactly a safe long term investment, but its been working for now.

Long term-the expectation at this point is that oil will go up again in the long term. OPEC announced it won't allow it to go below $50, and they're cutting 1 million bpd, with a planned anouncement tomorrow--which I think will probably cause it to spike tomorrow. The winter season will also cause it to rise, but for the next few weeks I think it'll hover around the same price of even decrease a llittle more after tomorrow's OPEC announcement.
 
Im hearing this everywhere, literally everyone. Dump real estate, stocks, bonds, the entire porfolio and buy bullion from goldline.com. This is scaring the crap out of me, anyone else in the market hearing this? Its almost everywhere I turn, some doc in my hospital just plunkered down $1 million to buy bullion....

While investing in stocks can be risky a la 1929, I also think investing in gold is kinda silly. So if the paper economy goes down, we're going to deal in gold?

Maybe if one wanted to diversify their portfolio, but I wouldn't put much stock in gold. Google is a better investment at this point!
 
Gold may yet make another bull run. It'll definitely not be now. Factor in winter oil demand, OPEC, and the possible threat of North Korea.

However, also factor in that winter oil demand (which will definitely happen) may not be as bad as expected.

For now, if you're into short term investing, the volatility of the oil market is working pretty well. 2 7% gains for myself in the past 3 weeks.
 
While investing in stocks can be risky a la 1929, I also think investing in gold is kinda silly. So if the paper economy goes down, we're going to deal in gold?

Maybe if one wanted to diversify their portfolio, but I wouldn't put much stock in gold. Google is a better investment at this point!


Gold actually has been doing well the past week. I may have waited a bit too long to get back on the metal bandwagon.

Gold has more uses than being simply dealed in place of paper money. Since its value is supposed to be based on real value and not on faith, it becomes a good investment if the value of your country's currency goes down.

There is also real demand for gold for various applications. Jewelry, domestic products, industrial products etc--many of which require gold.

The economy will probably never get to the point where paper money goes down the drain and gold takes it place--short of something on the order of a Road Warrior like armageddon. However like any commodity--it has real use and value.
 
Just to let you know---Gold is a great investment in a bear economy. Like Cramer says--There's a bull market everywhere. Bulls make money, Bears make money, hogs lose money (meaning don't sit on an investment that's gone up quite a bit--sell it off unless you have strong reason to believe it'll still go up).

I'd suggest you open your mind up to gold and other metals to diversify your portfolio and investment skills. If you plan on investing long term, you should have some back ups in case the market makes some unforseen turn for worse. Gold is a good one in that case.
 
This thread is a good example as to why doctors should generally not be in charge of their own investments. Buying gold is for people who have no idea what they're doing. Buying gold bullion instead of gold stocks is for people who especially have no idea what they're doing.

These are gimmicks that you usually see on infomercials, not worthwhile "investment" options. Either invest in a good mutual fund, or read a few books by Peter Lynch or Warren Buffett.

Investing in gold can only make money for short spurts... it is not a long-term investment for anyone on the planet. And when gold bullion does well (a rarity), gold stocks will do much, much, much better.

That is, if the price of gold bullion rises by 50%, the price of gold stocks will quadruple or better. It's called "financial leverage".

There is no serious investor you've ever seen or heard of who buys gold bullion or considers it a valid investment choice. It's for quacks, scammers, and the gullible who fall victim to these people.
 
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Its almost everywhere I turn, some doc in my hospital just plunkered down $1 million to buy bullion....
If it's everywhere you turn, then you know it's crap. And just because "some doc in your hospital" is a gullible imbecile, doesn't mean that you have to follow him. That is truly the blind leading the blind!

I'm willing to admit that gold bullion would be worth more than money in a bank account or brokerage account in the event of nuclear winter. But in that case, guns and bullets would have been a better investment than gold bullion.

:idea: Why not just stock up on a few hundred semi-automatic handguns as a long-term investment?
 
If you plan on investing long term, you should have some back ups in case the market makes some unforseen turn for worse. Gold is a good one in that case.

i disagree - if you're investing for the long term, you don't really care if the market makes a turn for the worse - in fact, this is when you should be buying! i know that i'm starting to sound like the berkshire chairmans letter, but if you're going to be a net saver (buyer), then you shouldn't really want the market to go up, since you can't buy anything cheap. the recent runup in the dow has been great in that my statement shows larger numbers, but the amount i'm starting to have in cash is building up too, because i can't find anything worth buying! so it's ultra-short-term options trading for me now...
 
If it's everywhere you turn, then you know it's crap. And just because "some doc in your hospital" is a gullible imbecile, doesn't mean that you have to follow him. That is truly the blind leading the blind!

I'm willing to admit that gold bullion would be worth more than money in a bank account or brokerage account in the event of nuclear winter. But in that case, guns and bullets would have been a better investment than gold bullion.

:idea: Why not just stock up on a few hundred semi-automatic handguns as a long-term investment?

I believe this doc also a nice collection of modified AR-15s. The end of days may not be that far off. In the event of a terror strike that can pull off low yield nukes in major US cities, all the cotton crap we are calling 'money' would be worthless.
 
I believe this doc also a nice collection of modified AR-15s. The end of days may not be that far off. In the event of a terror strike that can pull off low yield nukes in major US cities, all the cotton crap we are calling 'money' would be worthless.

In that case, once again, the guns will be worth a lot more than sticks of gold. There is little or no inherent value to gold, other than being (not so) rare. Tickle Me Elmos are rarer than gold, but you don't see (many) people hording those!
 
In that case, once again, the guns will be worth a lot more than sticks of gold. There is little or no inherent value to gold, other than being (not so) rare. Tickle Me Elmos are rarer than gold, but you don't see (many) people hording those!

Actually, it's not the guns, but bullets that would be the currency.
 
Actually, it's not the guns, but bullets that would be the currency.

I didn't say guns would be the currency, just that they'd be worth a lot more than gold. Gold couldn't possibly ever be a currency, is he going to make little coins out of those blocks he had shipped to him on a train?

Agreed that bullets would be the basic "currency", but working guns would hold their value just as well for the "big purchases". Gold would just getcha killed by gold bugs trying to invade your property and take it for themselves.

Anyone hording gold better have 100x the guns and 100x the ammunition of everyone else, because they're going to need it when the very situation arises that they had been preparing for.
 
Investing in gold doesn't work the way you're making it out to be, and knowing this is basic investment knowledge.

Anyone in a country who's currency becomes worth less is in a situation where investing in gold is a good thing.

In case you didn't know this, currencies change value depending on several factors such as the country's economy, the country decision on how much money is printed, etc. Gold's market value is hardly dependent on an individual nation's currency stituation.

And it also changes based on the basic demand for gold, which will fluctuate. Silver for example is in more demand because it is required to make circuits, CDs & DVDs.

If you've been investing in gold in the past 2 weeks you would've hit it off big. If you read my last post--which was right after the drop in oil prices--metals dropped big time. Now they're back and strong, maybe stronger than ever.

AUY-has gone up quite a bit.
RIO-gone up

Both are companies that are mining metals. Why did they go up? Because the value of the dollar has gone down. Since gold is considered a commodity, who's value is not destroyed if a country's currency goes down, its value won't be dragged down. I.E.--you got a life vest that'll keep you up, and if you're real good--it'll fly you up into the air.

RIOs stock value should be a good long term investment because the US dollar is expected to further weaken in the next few months, the demand for metals are expected to increase due to the rapid industrialization/globalization of China & India--who will then in turn need more metals for industrial applications, and add to that--RIO is in Brazil and their economy is improving. RIO is a company that primarily mines metals. So that stock has several factors--
the country where its in--they're doing well-stock goes up
value of metals go up-stock goes up
China & India will increase demand and price of metals--stock goes up
US dollar value will go down--stock goes up
Finally it is a company with top level fundamentals in Brazil--and no I do not own this stock though I am considering buying it.

Gold is not a commodity you simply need to take up if there's a nuclear winter. The value of the US dollar gets you half the Euros it would've gotten you just a few years ago. Our country's currency if you haven't figured it out is getting worse and worse each month for the past several years.

Remember Cramer's saying: Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered. Bears are just as likely to make mad money if they are expecting the worst to happen, just as much as Bulls are expecting to make mad money expecting the best to happen.

If you have the art of figuring out when to be a bull or a bear, you're ahead of someone who can only be 1.

If you bought gold a few year's ago you would've more than quadrupled your money, and its back to the pre oil drop prices. It would've gotten you money faster and bigger than AAPL which is considered one of the strongest blue chips on the market.

Investing in metals or in broader terms--betting your country's currency will go down is a smart thing to do now and does not have to be limited to simply buying metals. You could own for example own foreign stocks, metal mining companies or do FOREX.
 
i've only got one stock that gives me exposure to commodities in my portfolio - mittal steel (MT). i only bought it because i wanted to feel like a steel tycoon. turns out, it was a pretty good investment too.
 
Im hearing this everywhere, literally everyone. Dump real estate, stocks, bonds, the entire porfolio and buy bullion from goldline.com. This is scaring the crap out of me, anyone else in the market hearing this? Its almost everywhere I turn, some doc in my hospital just plunkered down $1 million to buy bullion....

Who've you been talking to, old indian grandmas?
 
LADoc00 mentioned this right around when gold hits its peak. It then dropped tremendously (hoped you didn't buy too much gold LADoc00). However since it dropped its back up.

My own taste is to not buy gold but to to buy stocks and mutual funds that work on metals instead. Storing gold is a pain in the butt, its a security risk (imagine if people found out you had 10s of thousands in metals in your basement?), you got to spend a lot of money in buying a safe and other security stuff, and the shipping is a pain.

For example, instead of buying silver (which IMHO has more speculative chance of increase vs gold, and its price fluctuations almost match gold perfectly), buy SLV--a fund whose value almost perfectly mimics the price of silver. That way you don't have to worry about having thousands in metals that could be stolen and you can avoid the shipping fees.

My own metals picks: SLV, TRE (does silver mining)-silver
AUY-gold (best of the breed among gold mine stocks)
RIO-does various metals but is based in Brazil, whose economy is skyrocketing, while our own is slipping--another good reason to buy it. Also considered a best of breed stock for its class.

Don't own any of them, but I am considering going in. I did own TRE, but sold it prematurely. Its since gone up way more after I sold it.
 
the market has it's ups and downs - if you have a long enough time horizon, you won't have to worry about them and hedge with gold.
 
Im hearing this everywhere, literally everyone. Dump real estate, stocks, bonds, the entire porfolio and buy bullion from goldline.com. This is scaring the crap out of me, anyone else in the market hearing this? Its almost everywhere I turn, some doc in my hospital just plunkered down $1 million to buy bullion....

That Butters avi is killing me. It matches the histeria of the post, I can only imagine you as Butters :scared: :laugh: :scared:
 
So you're telling me to invest heavily in something that goes up and down in the short term, but over the long term has had something of about a 3% return after everything's said and done? No thanks.

All my investing is for 5 years or longer, in products that have a good 5, 10, or even 20 year track record. They're diversified in several different mutual funds and some other stable items.

If the economy does collapse(which isn't gonna happen anytime soon. there have been a TON of naysayers for years and years, all saying that the market would crash at some specified date. When that date came and went, so did they.), you're gold isn't worth beans. In fact, beans would be worth more. According to a very rich financial advisor I trust, in every recorded incident where an economy collapsed, the first thing to rise from the ashes was a barter system. No one cares about money, paper or otherwise at first. They care about survival.
Gold has some "cool" factor to it, and it also appears to have credibility because we *used* to be on the gold standard.

If you're so worried about the US economy, there are plenty of foreign Mutual funds out there that are stable.

Not to mention the fact that all those "buy Gold" radio adverts and encdorsements you hear on talk radio and other stations are purchased with some very high pressure tactics. The methods vary, but they all include a script and a nice endorsement check, which the radio show host probably cashes and puts in a mutual fund.....
 
So you're telling me to invest heavily in something that goes up and down in the short term, but over the long term has had something of about a 3% return after everything's said and done? No thanks.

All my investing is for 5 years or longer, in products that have a good 5, 10, or even 20 year track record. They're diversified in several different mutual funds and some other stable items.

If the economy does collapse(which isn't gonna happen anytime soon. there have been a TON of naysayers for years and years, all saying that the market would crash at some specified date. When that date came and went, so did they.), you're gold isn't worth beans. In fact, beans would be worth more. According to a very rich financial advisor I trust, in every recorded incident where an economy collapsed, the first thing to rise from the ashes was a barter system. No one cares about money, paper or otherwise at first. They care about survival.
Gold has some "cool" factor to it, and it also appears to have credibility because we *used* to be on the gold standard.

If you're so worried about the US economy, there are plenty of foreign Mutual funds out there that are stable.

Not to mention the fact that all those "buy Gold" radio adverts and encdorsements you hear on talk radio and other stations are purchased with some very high pressure tactics. The methods vary, but they all include a script and a nice endorsement check, which the radio show host probably cashes and puts in a mutual fund.....

with an intraday drop of 500 on the dow, things look like they might start to go downhill. time to put those cash positions to work.
 
I'm not worried about a one day drop. I'm looking at the long term, remember?

97% of any rolling 5 year period of the stock market has a positive return.
100% of all ten year periods have a positive return.

Funny thing, but the Dow had a record high the same week as the State of the Union address, I barely heard about it on the mainstream newsies.

Bottom line, negativity sells. The "sky is falling" will always get attention. Stock market aside, people love to worry about crap. If it's not their life, it's a soap opera or some movie star entering rehab for insulting someone's brother's dog's puppie's choice of chew toy.

Long term, gang. Long term.
 
I'm not worried about a one day drop. I'm looking at the long term, remember?

97% of any rolling 5 year period of the stock market has a positive return.
100% of all ten year periods have a positive return.

Funny thing, but the Dow had a record high the same week as the State of the Union address, I barely heard about it on the mainstream newsies.

Bottom line, negativity sells. The "sky is falling" will always get attention. Stock market aside, people love to worry about crap. If it's not their life, it's a soap opera or some movie star entering rehab for insulting someone's brother's dog's puppie's choice of chew toy.

Long term, gang. Long term.

well, if you're in it for the long haul like i am, then you definately want this drop to continue more. i'm hoping that the brokers get hammered more, so that i can pull the trigger on gs when its p/e hits 8 - i've been waiting to get into this for a while.
 
:laugh: After reading this post I could definitely tell this is a forum of future "Docs" and not people in the investment industry. Investing in gold is a waste of money, all those books and articles you read about the collapse of the dollar are just some nut-economist's conspiracy theory. Buying gold is something that paranoid retired senior citizens do, I always laugh at those commercials that are on at 4AM trying to take advantage of old people and put their money in gold. If you want to make gains ony your investments you need to look for opportunity in the market, investing in gold is just a waste of your time.
 
:laugh: After reading this post I could definitely tell this is a forum of future "Docs" and not people in the investment industry. Investing in gold is a waste of money, all those books and articles you read about the collapse of the dollar are just some nut-economist's conspiracy theory. Buying gold is something that paranoid retired senior citizens do, I always laugh at those commercials that are on at 4AM trying to take advantage of old people and put their money in gold. If you want to make gains ony your investments you need to look for opportunity in the market, investing in gold is just a waste of your time.

i think most of the people here are advising against buying gold. however, i'm not going to complain when someone calls me a future doc - it's what i'm shooting for, after all.
 
I think the buying gold is a waste of time. Looking at the price of gold as one short term indicator of how the economy is doing is another ( dont forget the GDP,CPI, IR rates, ect). Gold is pretty much fixed and the price fluctuates on how well the dollar is doing. Me personally I would forget about gold. I would look at the inflation yield graph. If its near vertical and linear get your money out. As Jim Cramer says," Theres a bull market somewhere." lol
 
i just bought the GF a gold ring and almost dropped when i heard how much the price has increased in the last year. insanity
 
my brother just started an internship at morgan stanley in the commodities department, so i think i'm going to start looking in to it - not for my personal investing purposes, but because it sounds interesting...
 
So would now be a good time to liquidate the 17.4 kg of bullion I stash in a suitcase in my closet? :confused:

(Don't worry, I have a lock on the zipper.)

I'm just asking 'cause I noticed that it's at $808/oz as of last week.
 
i don't know...i have a feeling it might go closer to the $900 range with oil hitting $100/bl, until china puts their reserves to action to save the dollar. and they will do that, because they probably rely on a high dollar more than anyone else. meanwhile, enjoy the nice bargains you are getting in the equities markets, particularly in the financial sector.
 
$900+/oz would be amazing. I obviously don't have a ton to sell, but I'd like to let go of some. I'll wait a little longer.

"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities  that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future  will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Letter to Shareholders, 2000.
 
Precious metals and commodities FTW until 2009 at least
 
tax+insurance to buy gold is pretty high
sucks if you missed buying a few weeks ago.
 
and gold plummets to 920 :laugh:


nothing goes straight up. I figure it will pull back to the low 800 range before forming another base and trading to new highs. I'm waiting to load the truck up.
 
If you had bought iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) on the date of the original post in this thread, you would have had a ~40% return today. Your $6,411 investment would have been worth $9,852 now. That's nothing to ridicule.

Unfortunately, I didn't buy gold (even though I agreed with original sentiment/reasoning). Damnit.
 
Fundamental weaknesses in the dollar and the US economy aren't changing. Gold and commodities will continue to be hedges. Both are on steady uptrends--no telling how much they'll pull back for now
 
In that case, once again, the guns will be worth a lot more than sticks of gold. There is little or no inherent value to gold, other than being (not so) rare. Tickle Me Elmos are rarer than gold, but you don't see (many) people hording those!

Actually gold does serve an important role in today's modern central banking system. It the reset button when credit aggregates ultimately implode. It'll sit on the senior central bank's balance sheet doing nothing for decades then BAM! When all else fails, QE, helicopter money, negative rates, swollen balance sheet and no credit growth as far as the eye can see then that's the time to reboot the system. You see for the longest time debt as served as reserves in the system. What do you do when debt implodes? What do you turn to as the central bank of the senior currency? Why you revalue gold. Whatever it takes to recapitalize the system.
 
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