I agree that both sides should take what each says with a grain of salt. There are definitely honest people on both sides in this process, but the ones that lie make it so no one can believe what anyone says.
However, in this example, the program may not have lied. Sending a Christmas card is hardly a lie. Even if it said we’ll be ranking you highly. Sometimes you just match higher than usual. Sometimes lower. The match is unpredictable. So if you on average always go to the middle of your list, and you have someone in the top 1/3, you are in fact ranking that person high on your list and they should match. But if the stars align and you match much higher than typical in a given year, the program wasn’t lying, they just matched better than anticipated.
Unfortunately, no one ever knows what actually happened in these situations. The only way you know if a program or student lied is if they told you “you are ranked to match” or a student says “I’m ranking you #1” and there isn’t a match. And this definitely happens. It’s usually 1-2 people a year that contact us to say they are ranking us #1 that don’t show up on our list. Hell I had a student last year that probably emailed and said this at least 5 times or more, and we went below his spot on our list and didn’t match him. You just have to take these comments with a grain of salt, and not change what you do based on them. My frustration with this post-interview emails is that there is real fear that if you don’t send out emails as a program/student, that it will hurt you because the other side will take that as disinterest. There isn’t any data that I know of to back that up. But the one year we didn’t send out any, we had our lowest match statistically. It may not have had anything to do with it, but it gives you a fear as a program that by not reaching out, students will take that as disinterest. I know students feel the same way. It’s all silly, and while its not a match violation, its not in the spirit of the intent of the match IMO.
This is what is making it difficult for me as an applicant to understand who genuinely wants me at their program. I had an interview a few weeks ago where the PD was very forward about being interested in me matching there, but would probably be a program I rank lower. Then I had an interview this past week at a place I am very interested in, great interview day, but no comments made on their interest of me. Its hard when you leave a place you are interested in and not sure if they are interested in you. I feel like these situations are why people do crazy things during rank list time haha